Who should close going forward?

[mvp 78]

Low Leverage: 1.30 WHIP, 3.85 xFIP, 7.56 k/9, 3.32 bb/9

Med Leverage: 1.32 WHIP, 4.01 xFIP, 7.94 k/9, 3.54 bb/9

High Leverage: 1.12 WHIP, 3.14 xFIP, 8.34 k/9, 1.67 bb/9

 

Seems like Richards can handle high leverage situations?

[mvp 78]

Do you even look at the numbers at all?

 

Richards

 

2021

.824 High Leverage (.849 Medium Leverage, .851 Low Leverage)

.000 Late & Close

 

Career:

.665 High Leverage (.727 Medium, .663 Low)

.654 Late & Close (.706 overall)

 

This being said, I'm not for Richards as closer, but don't say he's worse in high leverage situations.

 

But the weird FanGraphs Clutch stat said so!

[mvp 78]

I wonder what Koji is up to these days.....

 

I bet he has given at least one high five today.

[moonslav59]

But the weird FanGraphs Clutch stat said so!

 

The criteria always changes to fit the opinion.

 

The guy actually thinks Chapman has done well since returning from his 12 days of rest. End of discussion.

[iortiz]

Since Richards come back I thought he was the real deal, specially when he had that good stretch.

 

Unfortunately he has been even worse all-in-all this year vs what his career numbers suggest.

 

Regardless the leverage situation, he has sucked this year.

 

He has settled down though lately in his new role. Leave him there.

[iortiz]

The criteria always changes to fit the opinion.

 

The guy actually thinks Chapman has done well since returning from his 12 days of rest. End of discussion.

 

He's been better in the last two months. It's a fact.

[notin]

His career clutch stat is negative -2.6.

 

The definition of that says it’s not repeatable and holds no predictive value. So anyone who believes in “clutch” should probably ignore that stat.

 

Also it’s calculated using the Leverage Index, which does increase as innings go on, depending on score. Basically a 1 run lead in the 7th inning is higher leverage than a 1 run lead in the 2nd.

 

Now with Richards as a starting pitcher, he has to pitch deeper into games t get to some of those truly high leverage situations. And when he does get there, he has a full workload already behind him.

 

If he closed, this wouldn’t be the case.

 

So this stat is not really applicable here IMO…

[redsoxrules]

SV% is actually the stat you have to look at when you rate a closer. Some closers close games cleanly, some not that much but if both have a 90 SV% or something close I don't care how they close.

 

How many blown saves does he have in July and August vs April, May and June?

 

Also ERA is a terrible stat for relievers and specially in short samples but still his ERA went form 11(June) to 4 (July and August). You are cherry picking.

 

Said that ERA is a solid stat in career samples but not my fav lol. I don't have a fav actually, it depends on the case.

 

Seriously? You want to base your assessment on a closer by save percentage? A closer can be lucky and always come in with a 3 run lead and if he always gives up a run and still ends up saving the game that doesn't mean he's good. Christ he'd have a 9ERA

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously? You want to base your assessment on a closer by save percentage? A closer can be lucky and always come in with a 3 run lead and if he always gives up a run and still ends up saving the game that doesn't mean he's good. Christ he'd have a 9ERA

 

Over the long haul, though, save pct. is a decent stat. I'd say the gold standard is 90%.

[moonslav59]

He's been better in the last two months. It's a fact.

 

You said very specifically, that he was better after getting rest as a reason to give Barnes rest.

 

He did not get the rest 2 months ago. He was rested from 8/6 to /8/18 and has pitched 3 games after the rest. His numbers are horrific, but whoopdee doo- no blown saves.

 

Then, on top of everything, you now move the goalposts and say "He's been better in the last two months. It's a fact."

 

WRONG!

 

Better than what?

 

OPS Against

.326 April

.455 May

Better than then? LOL!

 

.1.158 June

 

Better than June? Okay, but whoopdee freakin doo!

 

.717 July

.854 August (his 2nd worst month of the year, and this is better?)

And, July is his 3rd worst month.

 

Any way you look at it, Chapman has not improved.

 

Last 2 months:

.863 OPS Against

6.59 ERA

 

April to June 29th

.641

2.54

 

Try Calendar months:

APR-JUN

.695

3.77

 

JUL-AUG

.767

4.05

 

Own up.

 

[moonslav59]

Over the long haul, though, save pct. is a decent stat. I'd say the gold standard is 90%.

 

He's saying Chapman has not blown a save in his last 3 games, so he's improved, despite horrific numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

He's saying Chapman has not blown a save in his last 3 games, so he's improved, despite horrific numbers.

 

Not commenting on that, just on the save pct. stat.

[iortiz]

Seriously? You want to base your assessment on a closer by save percentage? A closer can be lucky and always come in with a 3 run lead and if he always gives up a run and still ends up saving the game that doesn't mean he's good. Christ he'd have a 9ERA

 

What is the job of a closer?

 

Close games, no matter what.

 

Career SV% is a solid stat in order to rate a closer.

[TylerD]

He's saying Chapman has not blown a save in his last 3 games, so he's improved, despite horrific numbers.

 

A quick look shows Chapman has only given up 2 runs in his last 10 saves. I know the numbers you are showing, but I would take Chapman over anyone we have personally. That’s just me though.

[iortiz]

You said very specifically, that he was better after getting rest as a reason to give Barnes rest.

 

He did not get the rest 2 months ago. He was rested from 8/6 to /8/18 and has pitched 3 games after the rest. His numbers are horrific, but whoopdee doo- no blown saves.

 

Then, on top of everything, you now move the goalposts and say "He's been better in the last two months. It's a fact."

 

WRONG!

 

Better than what?

 

OPS Against

.326 April

.455 May

Better than then? LOL!

 

.1.158 June

 

Better than June? Okay, but whoopdee freakin doo!

 

.717 July

.854 August (his 2nd worst month of the year, and this is better?)

And, July is his 3rd worst month.

 

Any way you look at it, Chapman has not improved.

 

Last 2 months:

.863 OPS Against

6.59 ERA

 

April to June 29th

.641

2.54

 

Try Calendar months:

APR-JUN

.695

3.77

 

JUL-AUG

.767

4.05

 

Own up.

 

LOL!

 

Chill moon.

 

I meant lately —2 months or so. I need to check it twice but I think they didn't give him the 9th entering July as they used to. Rest is not necessary not play at all in this case. Pitching in low leverage situations is giving a break to closers.

 

I think Barnes needs both, time and pitch in low leverage situations. IMO he is blocked right now mentally.

[iortiz]

He's saying Chapman has not blown a save in his last 3 games, so he's improved, despite horrific numbers.

 

lol I'm not saying that.

[mvp 78]

Barnes:

 

24 Blown Saves

39 Saves

95 Holds

 

His "Save %" is 62%. However, his "Blown Save %" 15%. That is, he only gives up a blown save 15% of the time. Baseball reference's Save % hurts guys who haven't been primarily closers (like Barnes) as it includes blown saves from 7th and 8th inning appearances when they would not likely get a save anyway.

[mvp 78]

Over the long haul, though, save pct. is a decent stat. I'd say the gold standard is 90%.

 

Lee Smith 82%

Eck 85%

Goose 73%

Sutter 75%

Hoffman 89%

Rivera 89%

[iortiz]

Barnes:

 

24 Blown Saves

39 Saves

95 Holds

 

His "Save %" is 62%. However, his "Blown Save %" 15%. That is, he only gives up a blown save 15% of the time. Baseball reference's Save % hurts guys who haven't been primarily closers (like Barnes) as it includes blown saves from 7th and 8th inning appearances when they would not likely get a save anyway.

 

yup, Barnes hasn't been a full-time closer until this year for 4 months, so any analysis in that in order to rate him as a closer does not make sense to me.

[mvp 78]

Bobby Thigpen 79% Save %. Because his usage was primarily 9th inning, his Blown Save % is 20%.

 

Mike Timlin 64% Save %. Because his usage was NOT primarily 9th inning, his Blown Save % is 20%.

 

Was Thigpen a better reliever than Timlin? Was he a better closer? Not according to bWAR. On a per inning basis, Timlin was the better bWAR pitcher. So why is the Save % misleading?

[mvp 78]

yup, Barnes hasn't been a full-time closer until this year for 4 months, so any analysis in that in order to rate him as a closer does not make sense to me.

 

What doesn't make sense is looking at Save % IMO.

[iortiz]

Bobby Thigpen 79% Save %. Because his usage was primarily 9th inning, his Blown Save % is 20%.

 

Mike Timlin 64% Save %. Because his usage was NOT primarily 9th inning, his Blown Save % is 20%.

 

Was Thigpen a better reliever than Timlin? Was he a better closer? Not according to bWAR. On a per inning basis, Timlin was the better bWAR pitcher. So why is the Save % misleading?

 

What is Papelbon SV%?

[iortiz]

What doesn't make sense is looking at Save % IMO.

 

No problem but I guess great closers have something around 80% or above through their career.

 

Saving 8 out of 10 opportunities speaks volumes of how good you are at closing in large career samples.

[mvp 78]

What is Papelbon SV%?

 

88%. Are we ready to say he was almost as good as Rivera? Was he better than Eck?

 

He's definitely better than a guy like Thigpen and better than Timlin or Barnes.

[mvp 78]

Papelbon: 368 Saves, 8 Holds.

[dgalehouse]

Papelbon: 368 Saves, 8 Holds.

 

Papelbon doesn't get enough credit. He was excellent for quite a while.

[moonslav59]

Papelbon doesn't get enough credit. He was excellent for quite a while.

 

He was tremendous. Even after he left, he was good for a while.

[notin]

Seriously? You want to base your assessment on a closer by save percentage? A closer can be lucky and always come in with a 3 run lead and if he always gives up a run and still ends up saving the game that doesn't mean he's good. Christ he'd have a 9ERA

 

Over the long haul, as indicated in the premise, a closer will have enough one run save chances to add some validity to the stat.

 

The biggest problems I have with save percentage is that it ignores tie games completely…

Edited August 25, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

Over the long haul, as indicated in the premise, a closer will have enough one run save chances to add some validity to the stat.

 

The biggest problems I have with save percentage is that it ignores tie games completely…

 

Plus, the criteria is highly questionable.

[TylerD]

I loved Pappelbon. He was fantastic

 

Can we get him back?