A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

All that work for nothing.

[moonslav59]

I had one in the hopper, but thought twice before hitting "post quick reply." I'm not ashamed though. Just ashamed at how small that stool can sometimes be.

 

It would have to be a soft stool.

[mvp 78]

It would have to be a soft stool.

 

TalkSox new sponsor: All-Bran Buds, for when you want your breakfast to look and taste like hamster food.

[Oscars]

It’s good to see Jay Groome going well in Double A, perhaps he will go on to fulfil his potential

[moonslav59]

It’s good to see Jay Groome going well in Double A, perhaps he will go on to fulfil his potential

 

He'll may start in AAA, next spring and maybe earn a shot in the bigs, if he does well.

 

soxprospects has him starting in AA.

 

Here is their projected rotations:

 

Rule 5 in RED

 

AAA: Seabold, Crawford, Winckowski, German, Espinal

AA: Bello, Groome, Murphy, Santos, Gambrell/Van Belle

A+: Walter. Blalock, Wu-Yelland. Drohan, Liu

A-: W Gonzalez, Olds, Encarnacion, de la Rosa, Loubier/Rodriguez

 

No Ward listed anywhere.

[notin]

Ward is probably out until July or August of next year…

[moonslav59]

Ward is probably out until July or August of next year…

 

It makes it easy for a team to select him in Rule 5. Keep him on the 40 man roster (taking a slot from someone else), but then putting him on the 60 day IL to start the season and opening back up a 40 man slot for most of the year.

[notin]

It makes it easy for a team to select him in Rule 5. Keep him on the 40 man roster (taking a slot from someone else), but then putting him on the 60 day IL to start the season and opening back up a 40 man slot for most of the year.

 

Nope. Makes it harder.

 

In order to keep a Rule 5 selection, a player has to be on the ACTIVE roster aka the 26 man roster for a full season. Time on the IL doesn’t count…

[notin]

It makes it easy for a team to select him in Rule 5. Keep him on the 40 man roster (taking a slot from someone else), but then putting him on the 60 day IL to start the season and opening back up a 40 man slot for most of the year.

 

Any team selecting Ward would either have to keep his injured arm on the active roster for all of 2022 knowing he is unable to pitch and preventing someone else who can from taking a roster spot, or they could put him on the 60 day IL and then activate him in July/August and then keep him in MLB until July/August 2023. At that point, they would own his rights.

 

Seems like far too much for a pitcher with 6 innings above A ball…

[mvp 78]

He'll may start in AAA, next spring and maybe earn a shot in the bigs, if he does well.

 

soxprospects has him starting in AA.

 

Here is their projected rotations:

 

Rule 5 in RED

 

AAA: Seabold, Crawford, Winckowski, German, Espinal

AA: Bello, Groome, Murphy, Santos, Gambrell/Van Belle

A+: Walter. Blalock, Wu-Yelland. Drohan, Liu

A-: W Gonzalez, Olds, Encarnacion, de la Rosa, Loubier/Rodriguez

 

No Ward listed anywhere.

 

No chance he goes up to AAA to start the year. He needs an extended look in AA. It's not like he was lighting the world on fire in Greenville.

[mvp 78]

It makes it easy for a team to select him in Rule 5. Keep him on the 40 man roster (taking a slot from someone else), but then putting him on the 60 day IL to start the season and opening back up a 40 man slot for most of the year.

 

That begins his MLB service clock.

[mvp 78]

Nope. Makes it harder.

 

In order to keep a Rule 5 selection, a player has to be on the ACTIVE roster aka the 26 man roster for a full season. Time on the IL doesn’t count…

 

Active roster AND his service clock starts once he's on the 60 day IL I believe.

[notin]

Active roster AND his service clock starts once he's on the 60 day IL I believe.

 

Service clock, yes. Rule 5 clock, no.

 

Like when the Sox took forever to maintain control of Adam Stern…

[mvp 78]

Service clock, yes. Rule 5 clock, no.

 

Like when the Sox took forever to maintain control of Adam Stern…

 

Correct. I could see a team thinking about doing this for Ward, but it's a long shot IMO.

[notin]

Correct. I could see a team thinking about doing this for Ward, but it's a long shot IMO.

 

It would be ridiculous to place a 18 month plan for controlling a pitcher not even close to MLB as it is. Because any claiming team that wanted still might think he needs MiLB time, but they can’t until July/August 2023, by which time Ward will be 26.

 

Teams will find it’s not remarkably difficult to find a much healthier pitcher to draft…

[mvp 78]

It would be ridiculous to place a 18 month plan for controlling a pitcher not even close to MLB as it is. Because any claiming team that wanted still might think he needs MiLB time, but they can’t until July/August 2023, by which time Ward will be 26.

 

Teams will find it’s not remarkably difficult to find a much healthier pitcher to draft…

 

It would have been like a team grabbing Whitlock in 2020's rule V draft. It we're talking 18 month recovery Thaddeus won't be back until 2023.

[moonslav59]

Yes, you guys are right. A team selecting Ward would have to keep him on the 26 man active roster, even if on the IL.

 

It looks like a good way for us to keep him without having to rule 5 protect him, this year.

[Larry Cook]

We have a lot of hard decisions to make as far as the 40 man roster.

[moonslav59]

We have a lot of hard decisions to make as far as the 40 man roster.

 

I'm not sure they are all that hard.

 

Is DFA'ing Rosario, Potts and Davis really all that difficult? (Those might be the last 3 to go.)

[notin]

I'm not sure they are all that hard.

 

Is DFA'ing Rosario, Potts and Davis really all that difficult? (Those might be the last 3 to go.)

 

There may be non-tenders, too. Possibly Brasier, Plawecki and Rios. Although they also might be re-signed for less…

[moonslav59]

There may be non-tenders, too. Possibly Brasier, Plawecki and Rios. Although they also might be re-signed for less…

 

We may trade someone, but I don't see the big need to clear a roster spot for someone like Potts, Rosario, Arauz, Rios, Davis, Brasier and a few more.

 

I know Vaz is a FA after 2022, but we may not keep Wong, Hernandez and Plawecki on the 40 man all next year.

[notin]

We may trade someone, but I don't see the big need to clear a roster spot for someone like Potts, Rosario, Arauz, Rios, Davis, Brasier and a few more.

 

I know Vaz is a FA after 2022, but we may not keep Wong, Hernandez and Plawecki on the 40 man all next year.

 

I’d be surprised to see Bloom just give up on Potts and Rosario so quickly. He struggled a bit in AA at 20 years old, did not play at all in 2020, and then struggled in AA again at 22. He’s still young for his level by nearly 2 years.

 

And Rosario is in AA and is even younger and was never a “bat first” guy to begin with.

 

And DFA Arauz?!?!

[moonslav59]

I’d be surprised to see Bloom just give up on Potts and Rosario so quickly. He struggled a bit in AA at 20 years old, did not play at all in 2020, and then struggled in AA again at 22. He’s still young for his level by nearly 2 years.

 

And Rosario is in AA and is even younger and was never a “bat first” guy to begin with.

 

And DFA Arauz?!?!

 

I'm not sure any of these guys get DFA'd or traded, but they are the ones that will be borderline after all is said and done.

 

Remember, we will likely add 3-5 free agents or trade additions.

 

My point was, I won't be upset, if any of these guys end up being dealt or booted to make room for the rule 5 guys and better free agents.

[moonslav59]

2022 Roster

 

24 Keepers:

Bogey

Barnes

Sale

Devers

JD M

Eovaldi

Taylor

DHern

Dalbec

Verdugo

Valdez

Pivetta

Arroyo

Houck

Mata

Groome

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Renfroe

Kike

Sawamura

R Hernandez

Duran

 

3 Options:

Vaz -yes

Perez -no

Richards- probably due to $1.5M buy out

Schwarber- mutual- will opt out

JD M- will likley not opt out

 

7 Rule 5:

Bello

Downs

Jimenez

V Santos

Winckowski

Crawford

Feltman

 

34 Total + 6 Free Agents, Acquisitions or from below:

 

DFA/ Trade/ Borderline:

Brasier

Arauz

Plawecki

Rosario

Potts

Bazardo

Cordero

Rios

Davis

Munoz -DFA

Hartlieb-DFA

Lopez-DFA

Cottam (5)

Dearden (5)

Esplin (5)

German (5)

Granberg (5)

Ort (5)

T Reed (5)

T Ward (5)

[Larry Cook]

2022 Roster

 

24 Keepers:

Bogey

Barnes

Sale

Devers

JD M

Eovaldi

Taylor

DHern

Dalbec

Verdugo

Valdez

Pivetta

Arroyo

Houck

Mata

Groome

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Renfroe

Kike

Sawamura

R Hernandez

Duran

 

3 Options:

Vaz -yes

Perez -no

Richards- probably due to $1.5M buy out

Schwarber- mutual- will opt out

JD M- will likley not opt out

 

7 Rule 5:

Bello

Downs

Jimenez

V Santos

Winckowski

Crawford

Feltman

 

34 Total + 6 Free Agents, Acquisitions or from below:

 

DFA/ Trade/ Borderline:

Brasier

Arauz

Plawecki

Rosario

Potts

Bazardo

Cordero

Rios

Davis

Munoz -DFA

Hartlieb-DFA

Lopez-DFA

Cottam (5)

Dearden (5)

Esplin (5)

German (5)

Granberg (5)

Ort (5)

T Reed (5)

T Ward (5)

 

In this scenario we are sacrificing a ton of depth and we are not a deep team.

[moonslav59]

In this scenario we are sacrificing a ton of depth and we are not a deep team.

 

The borderline list is not all that great, and some may be back as non 40 man roster players.

 

What's the alternative?

 

I can see saying good bye to Richards to add one more slot. (BTW, I did not count ERod back on a QO.)

 

We could limit FA signings by spending more on less players, but I can't see us signing less than 3. If you count no Richards and 3 FA signings that leaves 4 slots for these guys:

 

Bazardo

Cordero

Rios

Brasier

 

Davis

Arauz

Plawecki

Rosario

Potts

 

Likely will not be selected Rule 5:

Cottam (5)

Dearden (5)

Esplin (5)

German (5)

Granberg (5)

Ort (5)

T Reed (5)

T Ward (5)

 

Yes, our depth is better than last winter, but none of these guys jump off the page as someone we need to keep, and we can still keep 3-4 of them..

Edited September 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

The borderline list is not all that great, and some may be back as non 40 man roster players.

 

What's the alternative?

 

I can see saying good bye to Richards to add one more slot. (BTW, I did not count ERod back on a QO.)

 

We could limit FA signings by spending more on less players, but I can't see us signing less than 3. If you count no Richards and 3 FA signings that leaves 4 slots for these guys:

 

Bazardo

Cordero

Rios

Brasier

 

Davis

Arauz

Plawecki

Rosario

Potts

 

Likely will not be selected Rule 5:

Cottam (5)

Dearden (5)

Esplin (5)

German (5)

Granberg (5)

Ort (5)

T Reed (5)

T Ward (5)

 

Yes, our depth is better than last winter, but none of these guys jump off the page as someone we need to keep, and we can still keep 3-4 of them..

 

1. You counted 3 options, but really only should have been 2: Vaz and JD. Perez, and likely Richards and Schwarber are all gone.

 

2. There really are not many free agents worth going all in that the Sox need, but typically a team will only DFA players upon actually signing one. So you can probably add 7 players to original list and then they get removed one by one as anyone signs or is acquired via trade for a non-roster player (although quite often at least one 40-man roster player is included for this reason).

 

3. ERod likely gets a QO. Also he likely passes and hits the market...

[moonslav59]

1. You counted 3 options, but really only should have been 2: Vaz and JD. Perez, and likely Richards and Schwarber are all gone.

 

2. There really are not many free agents worth going all in that the Sox need, but typically a team will only DFA players upon actually signing one. So you can probably add 7 players to original list and then they get removed one by one as anyone signs or is acquired via trade for a non-roster player (although quite often at least one 40-man roster player is included for this reason).

 

3. ERod likely gets a QO. Also he likely passes and hits the market...

 

I mentioned Richards as being debatable and ERod as a possibility.

 

Yes, we won't need to decide the last 3-4 slots until after we sign FAs, but eventually, it will happen.

[moonslav59]

In what order do you posters place these bubble players?

 

This is my order, with who we should keep the most listed first:

 

Bazardo

Rios

Cordero

Rosario

Arauz

Davis

Potts

Brasier

Plawecki

 

I can see just keeping one from Rosario and Cordero, but our OF depth is pretty bad.

 

Some of these guys may be traded. Some may be signed to minor league deals. If any of these guys end up elsewhere, it's not like similar players aren't out there to be signed by us.

 

If we feel Wong and R Hern can handle the back-up catcher role, next year, that frees up the Plawecki slot on the 40.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox soft finishing schedule is truly a gift from MLB. There is no other way to put it. It would be very difficult not to win a wild card berth at this point.