6/09 Astros @ SOX 7:10PM

[notin]

So what about Porcello and his 3.33 FIP last year?

 

If we start singling out stats as not valuable because one player struggles to get a deal, then we might also need to disregard home runs and OPS. After all, in 2016, Chris Carter lead the NL in home runs with 41 and posted a .821 OPS (113 OPS+). That offseason as a free agent, he was only able to get a 1 year deal for $3mill as a defending home run champion...

[notin]

Why doesn't he have a job yet? Especially in light of all the injuries this year?

 

His not getting a deal in the offseason was one of the biggest surprises as seen from an outsider. Even if you did not like his ERA and WHIP for that one season that was comprised of 59 IP, he certainly had an extremely good track record as an innings eater and was one of the younger starters on the market...

[moonslav59]

So what about Porcello and his 3.33 FIP last year?

 

Small sample size?

[moonslav59]

Do these stats point to just how bad our defense is?

 

1st BAbip against at .324 (next team at .308)

 

We have the 4th lowest Hard Hit% against in MLB.

 

4th FIP- at 86 (1st in AL in FIP)

 

3rd best HR/FB at 9.7%

 

Maybe it's more about our defense than our pitching, this year.

[Maxbialystock]

Do these stats point to just how bad our defense is?

 

1st BAbip against at .324 (next team at .308)

 

We have the 4th lowest Hard Hit% against in MLB.

 

4th FIP- at 86 (1st in AL in FIP)

 

3rd best HR/FB at 9.7%

 

Maybe it's more about our defense than our pitching, this year.

 

No question the defense is a negative factor, very slightly offset by Renfroe's arm. The infield does not inspire confidence, and too often the opposing outfield looks quicker and more comfortable in Fenway than our own guys do.

[Bellhorn04]

Small sample size?

 

All 2020 sample sizes were small.

[moonslav59]

All 2020 sample sizes were small.

 

That doesn't make them any bigger.

 

Was the sample size a good indicator of JD's decline in skill sets?

[Maxbialystock]

Why doesn't he have a job yet? Especially in light of all the injuries this year?

 

Porcello stays healthy, has a pretty sizable repertoire--fast ball, curve, slider, changeup, and probably a cut fastball--but none of them is all that effective. He has a pretty lousy Salary/WAR ratio. In 12 seasons--not including this one-- he has accumulated a WAR of 20.1 and has been paid $127M. That's a ratio of $6M per 1 WAR. The Sox paid him $95M for a cumulative war of 9.3, so that's a ratio of about $10M per 1 WAR.

 

As for FIP, his last complete season, 2019, it was 4.76. 2020 is irrelevant except that he was paid $10M for a WAR of .2.

[iortiz]

Porcello stays healthy, has a pretty sizable repertoire--fast ball, curve, slider, changeup, and probably a cut fastball--but none of them is all that effective. He has a pretty lousy Salary/WAR ratio. In 12 seasons--not including this one-- he has accumulated a WAR of 20.1 and has been paid $127M. That's a ratio of $6M per 1 WAR. The Sox paid him $95M for a cumulative war of 9.3, so that's a ratio of about $10M per 1 WAR.

 

As for FIP, his last complete season, 2019, it was 4.76. 2020 is irrelevant except that he was paid $10M for a WAR of .2.

 

Bringing Porcello was a huge mistake. He has been nothing but a 4.5 ERA pitcher. He has always been. Yeah he had a couple of fluke years through 12 Y, but that's it. They didn't need to give him that contract. No one would at the time; it's very well documented. They could have given him 1 year at "high AVV" at best. They didn't. Ben s*** the bed big there.

[iortiz]

Why doesn't he have a job yet? Especially in light of all the injuries this year?

 

beacause he is done?

[mvp 78]

Bringing Porcello was a huge mistake. He has been nothing but a 4.5 ERA pitcher. He has always been. Yeah he had a couple of fluke years through 12 Y, but that's it. They didn't need to give him that contract. No one would at the time; it's very well documented. They could have given him 1 year at "high AVV" at best. They didn't. Ben s*** the bed big there.

 

A 4.5 ERA pitcher is better than what ERod is right now. It's a pitcher that has value and can save a bullpen.

[moonslav59]

A 4.5 ERA pitcher is better than what ERod is right now. It's a pitcher that has value and can save a bullpen.

 

If we'd have signed Porcello, with the idea he'd be in the rotation, we might not have signed Richards or Perez.

 

ERod was penciled in.

 

Plus, 4.50 at his age might be a bit generous.

[Bellhorn04]

If we'd have signed Porcello, with the idea he'd be in the rotation, we might not have signed Richards or Perez.

 

ERod was penciled in.

 

Plus, 4.50 at his age might be a bit generous.

 

To clarify, I'm not complaining that we didn't sign Porcello. I'm just surprised that no team has.

 

Why would his 2020 numbers scare anyone off? As you say it was a small sample, and some of the peripherals were good.

 

Maybe he just wasn't that interested in signing for a small amount. He's not short of cash, I'm sure.

[mvp 78]

If we'd have signed Porcello, with the idea he'd be in the rotation, we might not have signed Richards or Perez.

 

ERod was penciled in.

 

Plus, 4.50 at his age might be a bit generous.

 

I'm not saying we should have signed him. Just that there is an obvious need for him somewhere in MLB. Odd that nobody found a spot for him.

 

I was only questioning the "he's done" remark and stating that ERod is pitching worse than the dreaded 4.5 this year.

[mvp 78]

To clarify, I'm not complaining that we didn't sign Porcello. I'm just surprised that no team has.

 

Why would his 2020 numbers scare anyone off? As you say it was a small sample, and some of the peripherals were good.

 

Maybe he just wasn't that interested in signing for a small amount. He's not short of cash, I'm sure.

 

^^^

 

If he's leaving on his own terms, great!

[notin]

Bringing Porcello was a huge mistake. He has been nothing but a 4.5 ERA pitcher. He has always been. Yeah he had a couple of fluke years through 12 Y, but that's it. They didn't need to give him that contract. No one would at the time; it's very well documented. They could have given him 1 year at "high AVV" at best. They didn't. Ben s*** the bed big there.

 

It might have been an overpay, but most free agent pitchers are typically older than Porcello was at the time. Had he hit free agency, he would likely have topped that offer. (Injured List mainstay Nate Eovaldi received only a slightly lesser deal 2 years later).

 

 

You might not like his 4.50 ERA, but there is more to pitching than ERA. Add to that his Cy Young season and that deal was absolutely one of Ben’s better ones if not his best...

[iortiz]

A 4.5 ERA pitcher is better than what ERod is right now. It's a pitcher that has value and can save a bullpen.

 

I do not think they are comparable BUT if they were, ERod is a 4.1 career pitcher at the cheap.

 

Also, ERod started pretty strong, then he struggled and last game he showed encouraging things. Tonight is going to be a good test.

[iortiz]

It might have been an overpay, but most free agent pitchers are typically older than Porcello was at the time. Had he hit free agency, he would likely have topped that offer. (Injured List mainstay Nate Eovaldi received only a slightly lesser deal 2 years later).

 

 

You might not like his 4.50 ERA, but there is more to pitching than ERA. Add to that his Cy Young season and that deal was absolutely one of Ben’s better ones if not his best...

 

Would you give 95 M (probably 150 M these days) to a pitcher who is young and about to enter tho his prime who sports a 4.5 ERA?

[Bellhorn04]

Would you give 95 M (probably 150 M these days) to a pitcher who is young and about to enter tho his prime who sports a 4.5 ERA?

 

When we acquired Porcello he was coming off his best season - 15 wins, 204 innings, 3.43 ERA. I would say he benefited from some Recency Effect.