Game Day Thread 05.04.21 - Tigers (Fulmer) @ Red Sox (Big Dick Nick)

[Maxbialystock]

It's symbolic.

 

Key to Detroit ain't so sweet. Population has dropped steadily from 1,849,568 in 1950 to an estimated 670,000 today, resulting in massive areas of urban decay. Better than a key would be bus, train, or plane ticket out of town.

[Maxbialystock]

Right?? Been with this team for what? 7 or 8 seasons. Looks like a totally different player it’s amazing

 

I think he's taken a page from Kimbrel's book and gone to just two pitches, knuckle curve and fast ball. Luckily, he also avoids all the posing on mound Kimbrel used to relish.

[notin]

Bobby Dalbec could well be proof that the peter principle--being promoted to your level of incompetence--even applies to baseball. He was very good at U. Arizona and at Portland (AA) and Pawtucket (AAA), but so far this year he is tied for the MLB lead in errors--4--at 1b and with just a little effort could get his OPS, currently approaching .300, down below the Mendoza line.

 

Dalbec's OPS is .579. Certainly not good. In fact, quite bad. But nowhere near .300.

 

His BA is below the Mendoza line, however...

[notin]

Barnes has never been without great stuff. He has always shrunk in the moment and tries to be too fine. This year, he seems to be aware that his stuff is great and he is challenging hitters.

 

Actually Barnes' struggles were typically when working on minimal rest. Second day of back-to-backs were when he was just flat out ineffective...

[TylerD]

I think he's taken a page from Kimbrel's book and gone to just two pitches, knuckle curve and fast ball. Luckily, he also avoids all the posing on mound Kimbrel used to relish.

Lmao agreed.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

He's a 1st ballot HOFer anyway. If I was the GM on the Tigers, I would do what the Yanks did for ARod. Let him know he was gonna get cut a week in advance and let him ride out his final days in front of the fans before have a Miguel Cabrera day at home. Retire the jersey, give him a key to the city, etc.

 

Please don't mention Cabrera and A-Roid in the same post. It's an insult to Cabrera.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Dalbec's OPS is .579. Certainly not good. In fact, quite bad. But nowhere near .300.

 

His BA is below the Mendoza line, however...

 

When Devers returns and Marwin can play 1st base, there's no sane reason to see Dalbec starting with RH pitching. He's overmatched and that's being kind.

Edited May 5, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Pivetta proved that at best he is a number 5 starter and a BP killer. He appears to have 2 pitches, neither of which he can control in the strike zone.

The BP is rapidly achieving, with the exception of a couple guys, OINK OINK status.

Reporting on this game late because I watched the BRUINS earlier. Btw, the BRUINS are the only team in Boston that has any chance of getting the duck boats out of dock.

 

Almost forgot, the Tigers are a terrible team. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

Edited May 5, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[mvp 78]

Bottom of the lineup is rough. Brice needs to go.

[Thunder]

It's not how you win; all that matters is THAT you win. New day, let's keep it going. It's nice that we can still win games where the bullpen melts down. They won't melt down every night; that's not physically possible

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's OPS is .579. Certainly not good. In fact, quite bad. But nowhere near .300.

 

His BA is below the Mendoza line, however...

 

We can see what just 3 games can do to Renfroe's OPS. He's nearly caught Kike & Arroyo.

 

This season is way too early to get super critical over .579, especially when the whole league is down, offensively.

[moonslav59]

When Devers returns and Marwin can play 1st base, there's no sane reason to see Dalbec starting with RH pitching. He's overmatched and that's being kind.

 

Dalbec did hit .903 v RHPs, least year in pretty close to the same sample size as this year. Hitting .607 career vs RHPs is concerning, no doubt, but I'm not ready to call for a platoon at 1B, just yet.

 

We also might want Marwin to platoon with Renfroe not Dalbec. Maybe switch off between the two.

 

Then, there's the pending call-up of switch-hitting Danny Santana, who hits righties better.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta proved that at best he is a number 5 starter and a BP killer. He appears to have 2 pitches, neither of which he can control in the strike zone.

The BP is rapidly achieving, with the exception of a couple guys, OINK OINK status.

Reporting on this game late because I watched the BRUINS earlier. Btw, the BRUINS are the only team in Boston that has any chance of getting the duck boats out of dock.

 

Almost forgot, the Tigers are a terrible team. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

 

Pivetta was nearly our ace, until last night.

 

I'm not sure how one bad night "proves" he's a number 5.

 

Now, his career has shown he looks like a 5- maybe worse, but he seems to have turned things around, somewhat, this year. Maybe he's just a late bloomer.

 

It's strange that he's doing so well despite his worse BB/9 (5.6) of his career- by far, but his FIP is 3.34- thanks to his super low H/9 (6.2) and HR/9 (0.3).

 

FIP by Sox starters:

2.13 Eovaldi

3.34 Pivetta

3.54 ERod

3.59 Perez

4.02 Richards

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's not how you win; all that matters is THAT you win. New day, let's keep it going. It's nice that we can still win games where the bullpen melts down. They won't melt down every night; that's not physically possible

 

You said it. A lot of wins in this game look messy for one reason or another, but they're wins.

[Bellhorn04]

I think he's taken a page from Kimbrel's book and gone to just two pitches, knuckle curve and fast ball. Luckily, he also avoids all the posing on mound Kimbrel used to relish.

 

Kimbrel isn't a poser. He just has a weird-looking setup. Big difference.

[Bellhorn04]

Pivetta was nearly our ace, until last night.

 

I'm not sure how one bad night "proves" he's a number 5.

 

That whole post by SPLINTER was a fail.

[Thunder]

Pivetta was nearly our ace, until last night.

 

I'm not sure how one bad night "proves" he's a number 5.

 

Now, his career has shown he looks like a 5- maybe worse, but he seems to have turned things around, somewhat, this year. Maybe he's just a late bloomer.

 

It's strange that he's doing so well despite his worse BB/9 (5.6) of his career- by far, but his FIP is 3.34- thanks to his super low H/9 (6.2) and HR/9 (0.3).

 

FIP by Sox starters:

2.13 Eovaldi

3.34 Pivetta

3.54 ERod

3.59 Perez

4.02 Richards

 

 

I would be curious to see those numbers over the last 2 weeks (if possible). E-Rod and Eovaldi have been struggling, while Richards and Pivetta have turned it around in that time

[moonslav59]

I would be curious to see those numbers over the last 2 weeks (if possible). E-Rod and Eovaldi have been struggling, while Richards and Pivetta have turned it around in that time

 

Here are some numbers from the last 2 weeks. I can't find FIP for that time frame.

 

OPS Against

.381 Ottavino

.428 Barnes

.471 Pivetta

.673 Richards

.684 Perez

.711 Eovaldi

.733 Whitlock

.764 ERod

.814 Taylor

.852 DHern

.953 Andriese

1.000 Sawamura

1.161 Brice

 

ERA

2.81 Pivetta

2.89 Perez

3.24 Richards

4.91 Eovaldi

5.25 ERod

(Nearly an exact flip from the first 2 weeks.)

[Thunder]

Here are some numbers from the last 2 weeks. I can't find FIP for that time frame.

 

OPS Against

.381 Ottavino

.428 Barnes

.471 Pivetta

.673 Richards

.684 Perez

.711 Eovaldi

.733 Whitlock

.764 ERod

.814 Taylor

.852 DHern

.953 Andriese

1.000 Sawamura

1.161 Brice

 

ERA

2.81 Pivetta

2.89 Perez

3.24 Richards

4.91 Eovaldi

5.25 ERod

(Nearly an exact flip from the first 2 weeks.)

 

Interesting. I still trust our top 2 guys, but Richards and Pivetta are much more valuable than it appeared in mid-April. The jury is still out on Perez, but it's nice to have 4 other guys capable of giving you a win. When Sale comes back, hopefully that number platoons to 5.

[mvp 78]

Here are some numbers from the last 2 weeks. I can't find FIP for that time frame.

 

OPS Against

.381 Ottavino

.428 Barnes

.471 Pivetta

.673 Richards

.684 Perez

.711 Eovaldi

.733 Whitlock

.764 ERod

.814 Taylor

.852 DHern

.953 Andriese

1.000 Sawamura

1.161 Brice

 

ERA

2.81 Pivetta

2.89 Perez

3.24 Richards

4.91 Eovaldi

5.25 ERod

(Nearly an exact flip from the first 2 weeks.)

 

The tough part is that one bad outing really skews the stats for a reliever. In general, I think the pen has been ok. I just think Brice needs to be DFA'd. Taylor has looked better? Valdez is missing.

 

My only complaint was that I was hoping DHern would improve this year, but he's been more of the same. Guess he's just a low leverage guy for now.

[mvp 78]

Interesting. I still trust our top 2 guys, but Richards and Pivetta are much more valuable than it appeared in mid-April. The jury is still out on Perez, but it's nice to have 4 other guys capable of giving you a win. When Sale comes back, hopefully that number platoons to 5.

 

Perez he's fine. He's a fifth starter who is not likely to get injured. Since Eovaldi and Richards have a lengthy injury history, you need someone stable around to take the bump every 5 days.

 

Seabold is currently on the IL and Houck doesn't seem to be a legit starter unless he develops the 3rd pitch.

[Maxbialystock]

Dalbec's OPS is .579. Certainly not good. In fact, quite bad. But nowhere near .300.

 

His BA is below the Mendoza line, however...

 

You're right. I saw that last night. It's his SLG that is slipping and currently .328. His overall WAR, however is -1.0, worst on the team. When he and Devers are both in the lineup, Dalbec's -1.0 cancels Devers' +1.0. That is, if you accept the premises for WAR.

[Thunder]

Can we talk about how we would have been in deep s*** last night if Miggy wasn't batting .100?

 

Sad to see, in many ways. Top 3 hitter of my generation.

[Maxbialystock]

Pivetta proved that at best he is a number 5 starter and a BP killer. He appears to have 2 pitches, neither of which he can control in the strike zone.

The BP is rapidly achieving, with the exception of a couple guys, OINK OINK status.

Reporting on this game late because I watched the BRUINS earlier. Btw, the BRUINS are the only team in Boston that has any chance of getting the duck boats out of dock.

 

Almost forgot, the Tigers are a terrible team. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

 

I would argue that Pivetta is a minor miracle. He is tied with Eovaldi and Barnes for the highest WAR, +.8, on the pitching staff.

 

Last night I saw three pitches: fastball, slider, and curve. He can be hit when he goes with just the first two, but was effective when he used all three last night.

 

Bullpen killer? He and Eovaldi both have 6 starts. Eovaldi has pitched 34.2 innings and Pivetta 30.2, which means Eovaldi is worth 2 more outs per start than Pivetta. ERod has 5 starts and 28 innings, so he too is worth 2 more outs per start than Pivetta. Perez and Richards are both under 5 innings per start.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

That whole post by SPLINTER was a fail.

 

Yup, you're right.

Detroit isn't terrible.

Pivetta is better than a #5.

Dalbec is a threat against RH pitching.

The BP gives us all confidence except a couple of guys.

 

How could I be so wrong?

[Maxbialystock]

Can we talk about how we would have been in deep s*** last night if Miggy wasn't batting .100?

 

Sad to see, in many ways. Top 3 hitter of my generation.

 

Don't want to talk about it. And, in case you have forgotten, JDM and his team-leading OPS, RBI's, and total bases, did exactly the same thing to the Sox in the 4th game at Texas.

 

Cabrera is 38 this year. When Ted Williams was 39, he hit .388 (OPS 1.257) and lost the batting title because he only played in 132 games with 420 at bats, 119 walks, and 547 plate appearances. When he was 42, he played in 113 games with 29 dingers and an OPS of 1.096. Williams finished his career with a total of 2654 hits and 521 dingers.

 

Cabrera is being paid $30M this year as he has been for the past 3 years. For $30M/year for 4 years, his OPS's were/are .843, .744, .746, and .405.

 

This is his 14th season in Detroit, during which he has been paid over $320M to play baseball. By a team in a city which has been losing population and experiencing urban decay throughout those 14 years. This is madness. Cabrera is not the culprit, but MLB and the MLBPA certainly are.

[mvp 78]

Yup, you're right.

Detroit isn't terrible.

Pivetta is better than a #5.

Dalbec is a threat against RH pitching.

The BP gives us all confidence except a couple of guys.

 

How could I be so wrong?

 

Pivetta is 42nd in fWAR. Considering the amount of teams there are, he's probably a #3 right now.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Yup, you're right.

Detroit isn't terrible.

Pivetta is better than a #5.

Dalbec is a threat against RH pitching.

The BP gives us all confidence except a couple of guys.

 

How could I be so wrong?

 

Forgot one. The BRUINS aren't the only team in Boston that have a chance of undocking the ducks.

Edited May 5, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[moonslav59]

Pivetta is 42nd in fWAR. Considering the amount of teams there are, he's probably a #3 right now.

 

30 #1s in MLB, since there are 30 teams.

 

#42 would place him in about the middle rankings of all #2's. (31-60)

[mvp 78]

Forgot one. The BRUINS aren't the only team in Boston who has a chance of undocking the ducks.

 

Sox have the 2nd best record in MLB. The Bruins are 10th in points. C's are a Jekyll & Hyde team. They could run the table in the playoffs, but they aren't consistent enough.