2021 MLB draft

[Hugh2]

Jobe is considered the best high school pitching prospect in years. High risk, but very high reward. High school pitchers are the riskiest, but high school hitters are the second riskiest. Same thing with the Mayer pick, hugh risk high reward.

 

Detroit like Jobe, and reportedly had a deal cut with him pre draft. They didn’t budge when Mayer fell, and stayed true to their commitment to Jobe. I respect that.

 

I was a little surprised to see Davis #1 but not completely shocked. It was no secret Pittsburgh wanted to cut a deal at the top and Davis likely gave them the best deal.

 

Leiter at #2 was the most unsurprising thing for me. I found it laughable that teams would be scared off by his “high bonus, drop me off at Boston” demands.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mayer's upside is promising: rave reviews as a hitter and fielder, and reportedly yet to lift a weight. Imagine his development on a professional training regimen.

 

As for when we could see him, remember age is just a number. Duran is 24, but really progressed the past two years. Jackie Bradley, a much more polished outfielder, made the majors when he was 23. Betts, Benintendi and Moncada made MLB debuts when they were 21. Casas is 21 and playing with big leaguers in the Olympics.

 

Bogaerts and Devers both starred in the postseason when they were 20.

[Hugh2]

It's tough to say when we can see him. Obviously, you project a high school talent to take a few years longer because of how young they're. Some guys take a few years to progress and then still take another year or so until they're a staple in an everyday lineup. We also see phenoms who reach the majors by the time they're 20. Given his talent and upside, it's not crazy to think we could see him in Boston in 2 years, but we might not see him for 5 years and he still might end up being an all star.

[jacksonianmarch]

In the age of maximizing value, it makes little sense to bring him up before he’s 22-23 when he’s more physically mature unless he’s just racking the minors

[Hugh2]

In the age of maximizing value, it makes little sense to bring him up before he’s 22-23 when he’s more physically mature unless he’s just racking the minors

 

Yeah, of course. 22-23 is reasonable for most players. If he's a phenom you will see him sooner, guys will ultimately let you know when they're ready.

[Hugh2]

I actually like the Yankees pick. Two years in a row, that might be a record. I absolutely hate it when the Yanks pick position players who are "a sum of their parts" or great athletes who need the bat to develop. It never f***ing does. But, this Sweeney kid can mash. Lefty batter with line drive swing, should have good power at the next level. Drafted as a SS, but he will be a 3b long term.

 

The issue with Sweeney is there are questions if he can hit quality pitching.

 

JJ Cooper

@jjcoop36

·

11h

Here's the tricky part of this Trey Sweeney pick for the Yankees. Sweeney just didn't get to see many top-notch fastballs this year. He hit .425/.564/.800 on fastballs overall (!). But he hit .000/.250/.000 against 93+ mph fastballs. He only saw 16 of them. None harder than 95.

[jacksonianmarch]

He only saw 16 fastballs over 93? That doesn’t even register. He may have taken 10 of them. By your numbers above, it looks like he only made an out on 3 of the 16, one of them was ball 4 and the others were fouled off, early count strikes or balls. IE, absolutely useless stat. Then again, his lack of experience vs the high heat is something that will be tested early for sure

[Hugh2]

He only saw 16 fastballs over 93? That doesn’t even register. He may have taken 10 of them. By your numbers above, it looks like he only made an out on 3 of the 16, one of them was ball 4 and the others were fouled off, early count strikes or balls. IE, absolutely useless stat. Then again, his lack of experience vs the high heat is something that will be tested early for sure

 

 

The point is he batted .000 against high velocity. You could tell me, "well he didn't see a lot of fastballs" and that just uncovers another knock against him. He didn't see elite pitching in college, he just didn't face any and that's a fact. That doesn't mean he won't turn into a stud, but it is what it is.

 

The sweeney pick is going to play out with what the Yankees do in the rest of the draft, I think they reached for a guy so they can save money. That doesn't mean the scouting department doesn't like him, perhaps they have confidence that he will be fine and develop with time against more advance pitching. But, it was a reach.

[Hugh2]

This is a deep draft, with lots of talent in the later rounds, I'm sure the Yankees are looking to position themselves to take advantage of that.

[mvp 78]

Mayer's upside is promising: rave reviews as a hitter and fielder, and reportedly yet to lift a weight. Imagine his development on a professional training regimen.

 

As for when we could see him, remember age is just a number. Duran is 24, but really progressed the past two years. Jackie Bradley, a much more polished outfielder, made the majors when he was 23. Betts, Benintendi and Moncada made MLB debuts when they were 21. Casas is 21 and playing with big leaguers in the Olympics.

 

Bogaerts and Devers both starred in the postseason when they were 20.

The weight thing is hyperbole, right?

[mvp 78]

Yeah, of course. 22-23 is reasonable for most players. If he's a phenom you will see him sooner, guys will ultimately let you know when they're ready.

 

I think we should temper expectations. I'd still have Casas ahead of him on a prospect ranking.

[Hugh2]

The weight thing is hyperbole, right?

 

Pretty much. He projects to have average power, people are pointing out because he's not a "weight room" guy that if he adds some muscle he may have the opportunity to add plus power in the future.

 

Plus hit, Plus glove, Plus power at Short Stop? Yeah......I'm happy with that.

[mvp 78]

He only saw 16 fastballs over 93? That doesn’t even register. He may have taken 10 of them. By your numbers above, it looks like he only made an out on 3 of the 16, one of them was ball 4 and the others were fouled off, early count strikes or balls. IE, absolutely useless stat. Then again, his lack of experience vs the high heat is something that will be tested early for sure

 

Every hitter has to make some sort of adjustment. If he was picked early, there's a good chance he'll figure it out.

[mvp 78]

Pretty much. He projects to have average power, people are pointing out because he's not a "weight room" guy that if he adds some muscle he may have the opportunity to add plus power in the future.

 

Plus hit, Plus glove, Plus power at Short Stop? Yeah......I'm happy with that.

 

He could hit 10 hr a season and a plus glove and plus hit tool is good enough at that position.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s the deal with the Yankees shift in strategy. Prior to drafting Austin Wells first round last year, the Yanks had either gone pitcher or athlete outside of 2 selections (Jagielo and Judge in 2013)

 

CJ Henry 2006- athlete, great speed, hit tool lagging

Slade Heathcott 2009- high level speed, great arm, bat lagging

Kyle Holder 2015- whiz defensively, sucks as a hitter

Blake Rutherford 2016- speed, good arm, bat with promise

Anthony Seigler 2018- phenomenal defensive catcher, rocket arm, good speed, minus hit tool

Anthony Volpe 2019- great speed, glove, hands, hit tool average

 

The only guy above who progressed to a plus hit tool now or ever did is Volpe. The rest never developed the bat and ended up flops. That’s where the Yanks need to focus. If a guy can hit, he will progress and while he may not end up in the Bronx, he will add value via trade. Hitting is the toughest thing to do in baseball. If a guy comes in with a great hit tool, then you’re already ahead of the game

[moonslav59]

The weight thing is hyperbole, right?

 

I think I read somewhere he hasn't lifted weights.

[Hugh2]

I think I read somewhere he hasn't lifted weights.

 

You did, I read it in one of his scouting reports too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think we should temper expectations. I'd still have Casas ahead of him on a prospect ranking.

 

I try not to get caught up in rankings, it is geeky and frivolous, the kind of thing that a dumb ass like Chris Hatfield spends his life thinking about, but there is no way that Casas should be ranked in front of Mayer IMO.

 

"I know Marcelo Mayer, I've talked to Marcelo Mayer, I've seen Marcelo Mayer play, and Casas is no Marcelo Mayer."

[mvp 78]

I think I read somewhere he hasn't lifted weights.

 

Like I said, I believe that was hyperbole.

[Hugh2]

I try not to get caught up in rankings, it is geeky and frivolous, the kind of thing that a dumb ass like Chris Hatfield spends his life thinking about, but there is no way that Casas should be ranked in front of Mayer IMO.

 

"I know Marcelo Mayer, I've talked to Marcelo Mayer, I've seen Marcelo Mayer play, and Casas is no Marcelo Mayer."

 

Show me where the Hatfields hurt you on the doll.

[mvp 78]

I try not to get caught up in rankings, it is geeky and frivolous, the kind of thing that a dumb ass like Chris Hatfield spends his life thinking about, but there is no way that Casas should be ranked in front of Mayer IMO.

 

"I know Marcelo Mayer, I've talked to Marcelo Mayer, I've seen Marcelo Mayer play, and Casas is no Marcelo Mayer."

 

Until he can perform in A ball, I'd have him behind Casas.

[mvp 78]

Show me where the Hatfields hurt you on the doll.

 

Fan_since_Boggs proven to be a McCoy.

[mvp 78]

Until he can perform in A ball, I'd have him behind Casas.

 

@SPChrisHatfield

Paul Toboni said (Mayer) will likely get his feet wet in the Florida Complex League this year at first. I'd think he'll get up to Low-A Salem at some point this year. Next year starts in Salem most likely. Slight chance they get aggressive and start him in High-A Greenville.

 

We'll know more about where to slot Mayer after this season, but I still think he'd be behind Casas unless he absolutely mashes in Salem.

[moonslav59]

Until he can perform in A ball, I'd have him behind Casas.

 

Is .830 the threshold?

 

That's what Casas did at age 19 in A/A+ ball (500 PAs).

He's at .745 in AA, this year (182 PAs).

 

[moonslav59]

The first day of the MLB first-year player draft wrapped last night, and the Red Sox selected Marcelo Mayer with the fourth overall pick. Boston will have nine picks on Monday during Day Two of the draft, starting with pick number 40 at the start of the second round followed by picks 75 and 105. Here's a look at some of the best players available according to Baseball America (BA), MLB Pipeline (MLB), and Perfect Game (PG).

 

 

Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee (GA) (20 BA, 21 MLB, 24 PG)

Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustice (NJ) (28 BA, 17 MLB, 33 PG)

Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC) (21 BA, 20 MLB, 17 PG)

Jud Fabian, OF, Florida (27 BA, 23 MLB, 37 PG)

Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU (24 BA, 36 MLB, 74 PG)

Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield (MA) (31 BA, 24 MLB, 47 PG)

Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami (25 BA, 42 MLB, 55 PG)

Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama (26 BA, 35 MLB, 32 PG)

Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain (AZ) (54 BA, 34 MLB, 72 PG)

Alex Mooney, SS, St, Mary (MI) (66 BA, 64 MLB, 28 PG)

Boston's selection of Mayer at #4 overall leaves their bonus pool status up in the air. Early speculation is that it might take slightly over the $6.7 million allocated slot bonus to sign Mayer - but like I said, it's speculation. If that is indeed the case, the Red Sox might need to find some savings in the second and/or third round, which could mean drafting a player or two that might be considered a slight reach at those slots. Check out our Draft Preview for some players that might fit that mold, such as Boston College SS Cody Morissette, Fordham LHP Matt Mikulski, and Michigan LHP Steven Hajjar. Other possibilities include Virginia LHP Andrew Abbott, Ole Miss LHP Doug Nikhazy, and Alabama RHP Dylan Smith.

 

The second round kicks off at 1:00 pm ET today. Follow all of the action at SoxProspects.com.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is .830 the threshold?

 

That's what Casas did at age 19 in A/A+ ball (500 PAs).

He's at .745 in AA, this year (182 PAs).

 

 

He's also "playing up" in the Olympics. Mayer coming out of high school isn't at that level of experience yet.

[moonslav59]

He's also "playing up" in the Olympics. Mayer coming out of high school isn't at that level of experience yet.

 

Yes. I wasn't trying to argue Mayer belongs above Casas, although I'm sure some ranking services may place him #1 in our system.

 

I was just curious what it would take from Mayer for posters to jump him over Casas.

 

(What Casas does in the next few months may affect that equation, too.)

[Hugh2]

On pure ceiling alone I think you can make an argument for Mayer at #1, but they're so close in pure talent and Casas is further along. Proximity to the majors matters.

 

I think Mayer will slot in at #2 on the Sox rankings.

[mvp 78]

On pure ceiling alone I think you can make an argument for Mayer at #1, but they're so close in pure talent and Casas is further along. Proximity to the majors matters.

 

I think Mayer will slot in at #2 on the Sox rankings.

 

Proximity is why Casas has the edge. Ceiling wise, Mayer is #1 for sure.

[mvp 78]

Yes. I wasn't trying to argue Mayer belongs above Casas, although I'm sure some ranking services may place him #1 in our system.

 

I was just curious what it would take from Mayer for posters to jump him over Casas.

 

(What Casas does in the next few months may affect that equation, too.)

 

Casas' OPS has fallen off recently. If Mayer shows up and has an OPS above 850 in Salem, that should jump him above Casas unless Casas starts to absolutely mash.