2021 MLB draft

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I've read that the Tigers have Leiter as 1a and Jobe as 1b. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, which would shock many people, the Tigers will likely take him at 3. (and would definitely take him over Jobe). The only way the Tigers might not take Leiter is if Mayer is still available, but most people don't expect Mayer to be available at 3.

 

My new top 4 mock draft:

 

Pirates: Mayer

 

Rangers: Leiter

 

Tigers: Jobe, but there is a chance the Tigers could go Watson or House

 

Red Sox: Davis

 

Thus I now have Lawlar falling out of the top 4.

 

This is what Peter Gammons had to say on Twitter--he obviously read my above post:

 

Club drafting after the top five says it believes the first four are set:1.Mayer, Pitts.; 2. Leiter, Tex.; 3. Jobe, Det.; 4. Davis, Boston. Career hit tool meter on Davis:32 XBH, 39 BB, 28 K, contrary to the silly who think exit velo and launch angle are legit scouting tools.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you could trade picks, would you trade the 4th pick for the 10th and a second rounder?

 

It seems hard to place value on draft slots.

 

I guess I was thinking more of a small-market rebuilding club (kind of their permanent name these days) that can't afford a top-ranked guy. They swap his slot (say, #1-4) to a big-market team for lower but more plentiful picks that are both signable and depth-worthy (plus, they get a controllable Benintendi-type MLB player).

[Fan_since_Boggs]

You never know:

 

"What we have heard is that both parties, the Leiter camp, with his father and agent very involved, along with the Red Sox, are working their best to steer Jack to the fourth pick and have Boston take him," Longenhagen said.

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/mlb-draft-rumors-jack-leiter-to-red-sox-at-no-4?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Al Leiter is involved in this. Perhaps he is calling up the Rangers and Tigers and telling them: "don't take my boy or I'll send someone to your house to mess you up!"

 

I remember the 2004 NFL draft when Archie Manning was heavily involved in getting Eli to the Giants.

 

If Al Leiter succeeds in getting his son to Boston, maybe the Red Sox should reward him with a front office position. LOL.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

If Leiter falls to the Sox, it’s not going to be because Daddy wagged his finger and told teams not too.

 

This is normal posturing and rumors, the type that happen every single year in the draft.

[Hugh2]

After hearing Kiley McDaniels on the latest Soxprospects podcast I asked myself. “If you go Leiter because you want pitching, why not just go Jobe?”

 

Jobe is the best high school pitching prospect in years who already throws a 70/70 fastball slider. If he saves you money, you have a purse to throw around in what is one of the deepest drafts in years.

 

Besides, I’m about 90% convinced Lawlar and Leiter are going 1-2, maybe 1-3

[moonslav59]

After hearing Kiley McDaniels on the latest Soxprospects podcast I asked myself. “If you go Leiter because you want pitching, why not just go Jobe?”

 

Jobe is the best high school pitching prospect in years who already throws a 70/70 fastball slider. If he saves you money, you have a purse to throw around in what is one of the deepest drafts in years.

 

Besides, I’m about 90% convinced Lawlar and Leiter are going 1-2, maybe 1-3

 

Mayer is number 1 or 2.

[Hugh2]

Mayer is number 1 or 2.

 

Maybe, Lawlar is more likely to stick at SS. I think people are souring on Lawlar because his season ended a month before Mayer. He was 1-1 up until the end of his season. He also flew into Pitt several days ago and it’s been known they’re looking to cut a deal at the top.

 

I think it’s Lawlar 1-1.

 

Insanely good chance Mayer goes 2nd or 3rd which means one of Leiter/Davis falls to us.

 

I think one of those two guys are out picks. I think it’s Davis, unless Jobe goes ahead of us in which case I think that pushes Leiter down.

 

I’ve really come around on Jobe, I kind of want him to be our pick now but I don’t think the Sox are looking at him.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, Lawlar is more likely to stick at SS. I think people are souring on Lawlar because his season ended a month before Mayer. He was 1-1 up until the end of his season. He also flew into Pitt several days ago and it’s been known they’re looking to cut a deal at the top.

 

I think it’s Lawlar 1-1.

 

Insanely good chance Mayer goes 2nd or 3rd which means one of Leiter/Davis falls to us.

 

I think one of those two guys are out picks. I think it’s Davis, unless Jobe goes ahead of us in which case I think that pushes Leiter down.

 

I’ve really come around on Jobe, I kind of want him to be our pick now but I don’t think the Sox are looking at him.

 

I'm reading Mayer on most mock drafts. One said he had the best hit and defensive rating in the draft.

 

I admit, I know only what I read.

 

I think...

 

Mayer

 

Leiter

 

Lawlar

 

Davis

[Hugh2]

I think Mayer has the better present hit tool, Wilson has the best chance to hit, House has the highest ceiling/lowest floor, and Lawlar is inbetween.

 

You have to take the Mocks with a grain of salt, these guys don’t really know anything either. They just talk to scouts and know who’s looking at who. They change weekly.

 

Mayer 1-1 is a very defensible prediction. I just can’t get over how Pitt would fly Lawlar out to meet them just a few days before the draft unless they weren’t very serious about cutting a deal with him. But, admittedly I know nothing either.

[Hugh2]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/soxprospects-com-podcast/id309680652?i=1000528053562

 

2nd 1/2 is an interview with Kiley McDaniels where they preview the draft.

 

I urge all prospect loving draft enthusiasts to check it out if they have time this weekend. Pop in the headphones and start mowing that lawn!!!!

[Hugh2]

I also think Lawlar going 1-1 gives us the best chance of Leiter falling to us. I can see Lawlar falling out of the top 4, I don’t see Mayer doing so.

[moonslav59]

I think Mayer has the better present hit tool, Wilson has the best chance to hit, House has the highest ceiling/lowest floor, and Lawlar is inbetween.

 

You have to take the Mocks with a grain of salt, these guys don’t really know anything either. They just talk to scouts and know who’s looking at who. They change weekly.

 

Mayer 1-1 is a very defensible prediction. I just can’t get over how Pitt would fly Lawlar out to meet them just a few days before the draft unless they weren’t very serious about cutting a deal with him. But, admittedly I know nothing either.

 

Do we know, if they met with Mayer?

[Hugh2]

Do we know, if they met with Mayer?

 

Oh I’m sure they did, but it’s the timing that has me convinced. At the very least he’s still a very strong consideration for 1-1

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm reading Mayer on most mock drafts. One said he had the best hit and defensive rating in the draft.

 

I admit, I know only what I read.

 

I think...

 

Mayer

 

Leiter

 

Lawlar

 

Davis

 

All reports point to one of those four... unless Bloom values another high schooler like Wilson ("value" includes cost comparisons with signing). I read one article where a scout affiliated with Boston called Lawlar a 5-tool player.

[notin]

I think Mayer has the better present hit tool, Wilson has the best chance to hit, House has the highest ceiling/lowest floor, and Lawlar is inbetween.

 

You have to take the Mocks with a grain of salt, these guys don’t really know anything either. They just talk to scouts and know who’s looking at who. They change weekly.

 

Mayer 1-1 is a very defensible prediction. I just can’t get over how Pitt would fly Lawlar out to meet them just a few days before the draft unless they weren’t very serious about cutting a deal with him. But, admittedly I know nothing either.

 

 

The obvious reason to talk to Lawler now is to see if he also might sign underslot…

[moonslav59]

I admit I am very naïve about slot and bonus money, but I don't understand why any player would agree to go well below slot money, unless they think they'd drop far enough in the draft to make less at that slot.

 

Is that how it works?

 

Here are the numbers:

 

First Round

1) Pirates: $8,415,300

2) Rangers: $7,789,900

3) Tigers: $7,221,200

4) Red Sox: $6,664,000

5) Orioles: $6,180,700

6) D-backs: $5,742,900

7) Royals: $5,432,400

8) Rockies: $5,176,900

9) Angels: $4,949,100

10) Mets: $4,739,900

11) Nationals: $4,547,500

12) Mariners: $4,366,400

13) Phillies: $4,197,300

14) Giants: $4,036,800

15) Brewers: $3,885,800

 

Here are the bonus pools for all 30 clubs:

 

Pirates: $14,394,000

Tigers: $14,253,800

Rangers: $12,641,000

Reds: $11,905,700

Orioles: $11,829,300

Red Sox: $11,359,600

D-backs: $11,271,900

Royals: $10,917,700

Rockies: $10,543,900

Brewers: $10,063,400

Marlins: $9,949,800

Angels: $9,295,900

Mets: $9,026,300

Nationals: $8,770,000

Mariners: $8,526,000

Phillies: $8,295,000

Cardinals: $8,167,100

Twins: $8,101,400

Giants: $8,070,600

Rays: $7,955,800

Guardians: $7,398,800

Yankees: $6,943,700

Padres: $6,812,300

Cubs: $6,779,400

White Sox: $6,618,600

Braves: $6,326,300

Athletics: $6,188,900

Blue Jays: $5,775,900

Dodgers: $4,646,700

Astros: $2,940,600

 

The Astros really got bashed hard.

[Hugh2]

I admit I am very naïve about slot and bonus money, but I don't understand why any player would agree to go well below slot money, unless they think they'd drop far enough in the draft to make less at that slot.

 

Is that how it works?

 

Here are the numbers:

 

First Round

1) Pirates: $8,415,300

2) Rangers: $7,789,900

3) Tigers: $7,221,200

4) Red Sox: $6,664,000

5) Orioles: $6,180,700

6) D-backs: $5,742,900

7) Royals: $5,432,400

8) Rockies: $5,176,900

9) Angels: $4,949,100

10) Mets: $4,739,900

11) Nationals: $4,547,500

12) Mariners: $4,366,400

13) Phillies: $4,197,300

14) Giants: $4,036,800

15) Brewers: $3,885,800

 

Here are the bonus pools for all 30 clubs:

 

Pirates: $14,394,000

Tigers: $14,253,800

Rangers: $12,641,000

Reds: $11,905,700

Orioles: $11,829,300

Red Sox: $11,359,600

D-backs: $11,271,900

Royals: $10,917,700

Rockies: $10,543,900

Brewers: $10,063,400

Marlins: $9,949,800

Angels: $9,295,900

Mets: $9,026,300

Nationals: $8,770,000

Mariners: $8,526,000

Phillies: $8,295,000

Cardinals: $8,167,100

Twins: $8,101,400

Giants: $8,070,600

Rays: $7,955,800

Guardians: $7,398,800

Yankees: $6,943,700

Padres: $6,812,300

Cubs: $6,779,400

White Sox: $6,618,600

Braves: $6,326,300

Athletics: $6,188,900

Blue Jays: $5,775,900

Dodgers: $4,646,700

Astros: $2,940,600

 

The Astros really got bashed hard.

 

That’s exactly how it works. If a team really likes a guy, thinks he will drop further and will sign for less than slot they can throw less money at them and use the surplus in later rounds.

 

I forgot what the percentage amount is, but I believe a team has to offer at least 75% of the slot value if they want a comp pick if a player refuses to sign.

 

So if Pitt drafts Leiter and he doesn’t sign they get the #2 pick next year, if Boston’s pick doesn’t sign we get the #5 pick.

[Hugh2]

Now this may be more of a semantics battle but most top draft picks are signed for under slot. It’s not uncommon for a guy to sign for 200-500k less.

 

When people talk about “cutting a deal” at the top, they’re talking about saving 1-2 million.

[moonslav59]

It must be a complicated game these kids and their agents play.

 

Underslot agreements vs what 3 picks away underslot amounts to.

 

Which slot brings the most money and other factors some players might prefer.

[moonslav59]

Just hours to go, and we'll know who we have.

 

I'm curious about who we et second round and beyond, too, but I have to admit, I've never paid this much attention to a MLB draft as this one.

[Hugh2]

Reportedly this is an extremely deep draft in the later rounds. One of the strongest draft in years for rounds 4-10.

 

We should get some excited players with #40 and #75 too.

[moonslav59]

Reportedly this is an extremely deep draft in the later rounds. One of the strongest draft in years for rounds 4-10.

 

We should get some excited players with #40 and #75 too.

 

We got Betts in the 5th round, so...

[moonslav59]

Draft Day 2021- Denver, CO

7:07 pm ESPN (Day 1) Round 1 and Comp-Balance A

1:00 pm MLB Network (Day 2) Rd 2-10 and Comp-Bal B

12:00 pm MLB Network (Day 3) Rd 11-20

 

Baseball America projects:

 

1. Mayer

 

2. Lawlar

 

3. Jobe

 

4. Leiter

 

5. Watson

 

6. Davis

 

7. Rocker

 

8. House

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Everyone has Mayer going to the Pirates at 1. But what is interesting is that Mayer will easily go in the top 3 if he doesn't go to Pitt at 1. As such, Mayer isn't going to agree to a big under slot discount. If Cherrington is prioritizing an under slot discount with the first pick, maybe Mayer won't be the selection after all?

 

I would think that Lawlar is more likely to give the Pirates a large under slot discount. Lawlar is more likely to fall out of the top 4, and he must know that, his agent must know that. If the Pirates can save several million by taking Lawlar, and only half a million by taking Mayer, wouldn't the Pirates take Lawlar instead?

 

If the Pirates take Lawlar, there is a greater likelihood that the Red Sox end up with Leiter in that Mayer will go to the Rangers or Tigers. Although, even if the Pirates take Lawlar, the draft could unfold like this:

 

Pirates: Lawlar

Rangers: Mayer

Tigers: Leiter

Red Sox: Davis

 

or like this:

 

Pirates: Lawlar

Rangers: Leiter

Tigers: Mayer

Red Sox: Davis

 

It is pretty well known that the Rangers are enamored by Leiter, but even if they take Mayer over Leiter, the Tigers like Leiter too and so there is no easy path that gets Leiter to the Red Sox. Nevertheless, if Mayer is available when the Rangers or Tigers pick, that will increase the odds that Leiter slips to 4.

 

If we want the Red Sox to draft Leiter, we should root for the Pirates to take Lawlar over Mayer.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

First Round

1) Pirates: $8,415,300

2) Rangers: $7,789,900

3) Tigers: $7,221,200

4) Red Sox: $6,664,000

 

What is interesting is that Leiter, who is trying to get to the Red Sox, is telling the Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers that he will not sign for slot value and will want over slot. In contrast, when speaking to the Red Sox, he must have already told them that he will sign for 6.6 million slot value. LOL. We will soon learn if that strategy works.

[moonslav59]

Some one like Jobe might be our best hope at getting Leiter.

[moonslav59]

Hours to go...

[Hugh2]

Some one like Jobe might be our best hope at getting Leiter.

 

While he hasn’t been linked to the Sox, I’d be happy if they surprised everyone by picking Jobe.

[moonslav59]

While he hasn’t been linked to the Sox, I’d be happy if they surprised everyone by picking Jobe.

 

I'd rather have Leiter, Davis, Mayer or Lawlar, but I'd be happy with Jobe or even Rocker.

 

If Bloom takes Watson or House, I'd think he knows what he's doing.

 

One note: Bloom's drafting history is not all that great, but maybe their strategy was influenced by their budget.

[Hugh2]

I'd rather have Leiter, Davis, Mayer or Lawlar, but I'd be happy with Jobe or even Rocker.

 

If Bloom takes Watson or House, I'd think he knows what he's doing.

 

One note: Bloom's drafting history is not all that great, but maybe their strategy was influenced by their budget.

 

I could be wrong here, but I believe teams pretty much always spend their bonus pool, and in most cases go 5% above. I don’t think cash is an issue.

 

Personnel can be though, Bloom has a new boss that may have different influences. It’s also about the team of scouts feeding you information as well. The picks belong to those guys just as much as it does the GM….although they’ll never get the same level of credit externally.