Yankees 2020 offseason thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Pretty solid game last night, even if the result wasn’t in our favor. Hate making this post while baseball is still going on, but a hat tip to the Rays. Focusing on NY, Boone entirely f***ed this series. Did he forget there weren’t off days? Why, with a 1-0 lead, burn two starters in game 2? Why not stick to convention? It worked against Bieber, Carrasco and Snell. Instead, you got cute and it burned us. Second, why the ever living s*** would you burn Chad Green in game 3, down 3 runs? That led to him not being available in game 5, which lead to needing to get 4 innings from Chapman and Britton. Chapman is a great pitcher, but when you ask him to get more than 3 outs, you play with fire. Brousseau’s HR is up there with the Rajai Davis homer back in 2016 as reasons why you don’t overextend Chapman. But we wouldn’t have needed Chap for more than an inning if Green was available. I do not get it.

 

The first thing to do this offseason is to move on from Boone. He was handed a young LCS team from Girardi, added Lemahieu and Gerrit Cole and couldn’t get past a team with a third the payroll. He was given the chances, it’s time to move on.

 

Beyond that, some tough choices will need to be made. Lemahieu, Gardner, Paxton, Tanaka are all FA’s. I’m sure Tanaka and Lemahieu get QO’s, but I’m no longer sure we try more than a one year deal for Masahiro. We absolutely need to re-sign Lemahieu. I’ve seen a Donaldson deal as a likely range at 4 yrs $92 mil for DJ. I’d be fine with that. I’d opt out of Gardy’s deal and let the walking IL in Paxton leave as well.

 

On the arb side, I’d offer Sanchez a 1 yr $4 mil deal, a slight drop. If he doesn’t take it, non tender him. There’s far more to get into as this long covid offseason slogs on.

[Bellhorn04]

Yankee fans on their forum are convinced that Boone didn't even make that call for Game 2, that it was Cash and the analytics guys. FWIW A-Rod said the same.

 

If you want to get rid of Boone, you might have to get rid of Cash too.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankee fans on their forum are convinced that Boone didn't even make that call for Game 2, that it was Cash and the analytics guys. FWIW A-Rod said the same.

 

If you want to get rid of Boone, you might have to get rid of Cash too.

 

Game 2 may have been a joint decision and a reason why the FO f***wits need to stay off the field. We won't know if Garcia as a starter would have outperformed what Happ did. Green's mismanagement was directly responsible for the events of last night, though, and entirely stupid. The Rays were every bit as good or better than the Yankees. You cannot make that callous of a mistake with Green, especially when the rest of your pen has been entirely hit or miss.

[Bellhorn04]

It does seem like the Yankees got outmanaged in that series. (Kevin) Cash doesn't seem to make any managerial mistakes at all.

[Bellhorn04]

The head-scratcher in last night's game was bringing Sanchez in as a "defensive replacement".

[jacksonianmarch]

In terms of payroll (all numbers are AAV)....

 

1. Cole- $36 mil

2. Stanton- $22 mil

3. Chapman- $17.4 mil

4. Britton- $13 mil (assuming Yanks pick up the option)

5. Hicks- $10 mil

6. Severino $10 mil

7. Ottavino- $8 mil

 

That's $116.4 mil. I am also assuming the Yanks opt out of Gardner's deal. I also expect them to non-tender Kahnle as he will miss all of 2021 and is in his final arb season. Add in $15 mil for medicals and you're at $131.4 mil. Now onto the arb totals

All arb estimates are entirely mine and mine alone, feel free to disagree, but give me your thoughts on amount. Also, $900K seems to be a popular first time arb number for players without solid track records, so I will use this a fair amount, FYI. Also, arbitration uses only the last 2 seasons.

 

8. Cessa- had a good 2020, not so good 2019. First year arbs for relievers without save totals are usually low. $900K

9. Frazier- good 2020 in limited role, not so good 2019. First year arb for him would be around $2 mil

10. German- solid 2019, no 2020 because he couldnt keep his hands to himself. Likely around Frazier at $2 mil

11. Green- coming off $1.2 mil arb salary, didnt do himself any favors with the HR allowed. His FIP went up a lot even though his ERA went down a lot from 2019. I'd peg him in the $3 mil range as a second arb

12. Heller- up and down and now injured. Likely to see $900K if not non-tendered

13. Higashioka- pre-arb- $600K

14. Holder- 2 straight poor seasons after a dominant 2018. He won't cost more than $900K

15. Judge- coming off $8.5 mil, was solid yet injury prone again. Second year arb's rise a lot. I'd peg him at $15 mil

16. Montgomery- season was better than it looked. FIP under 4, WAR of 0.9 in only 10 starts for a 5th guy. But, he's made only 17 starts the last 3 years. Won't see much of a raise. $1.2 mil

17. Loaisiga- pre-arb $600K

18. Tauchman- pre-arb $600K

19. Torres- first arb season for Gleyber. Otherworldly 2019, pretty bad 2020. Judge got $8.5 mil in his first time through, but far greater WAR than Torres. I will go with $6 mil

20. Urshela- first arb for him too. Defense picked up a lot, was on pace for a 4.3WAR season after a 3.1WAR season last year. Setting himself up for a good payday. $5 mil

21. Voit- first arb year for him and a doozy. Positive 2019 WAR but oft injured. Led the league in HR in 2020. Arbitration loves these figures. I am gonna go with a Torres-esque $6 mil

22. Wade- pre-arb $600K

23. Sanchez- I offer him a 1 yr contract for $4 mil. I do not allow him to go into the arb process, as his $5 mil contract will rise into the $8-$9 mil range. He lost his job as a catcher because he couldnt catch and lost his spot in the lineup because he couldnt hit.

 

My arb estimates are $49.3 mil for arbitration. That puts us at $180.7 mil. Add in the other 4 spots on the roster at minimum wage and then about $2 mil for the other 40 man guys and you are at $186 mil or so without any changes with the following team

 

C- Higashioka, Sanchez

1B- Voit

2B- Wade

3B- Urshela

SS- Torres

LF- Frazier

CF- Hicks

RF- Judge

DH- Stanton

 

SP1- Cole

SP2- German

SP3- Garcia

SP4- Montgomery

SP5 (recovering) Severino

 

CL- Chapman

SU- Britton

SU Green

MR- Heller

MR- Ottavino

 

The basic concepts of a playoff team are there. The lineup should be good. The rotation needs work until Sevy can return to his rightful place behind Cole. In terms of what will be needed....

 

1. Re-sign Lemahieu- If the Donaldson estimate is true, do it. 4 yrs $92 mil. My guess is he may come in a little lower than that as I think the bigger suitors are going to be less enthused about signing a 32 yr old in the wake of financial losses during a pandemic. But I think this is a reasonable deal based on the market.

 

2. Add to the rotation- we have some very solid kids ready to make the jump, but I only like one rookie at a time in the rotation. I pencil Deivi in more as a 4/5 and be surprised. Have Montgomery as the other 4/5 and know the last 2 slots are filled with cheap, productive talent. The ace is unquestioned. German is a shaky 3 as his HR propensity and lack of pitching the last 12 months makes him a dicey move to bet on. Severino, presuming no setbacks, should rejoin the rotation around the ASB and I would expect to see him in the vintage form by September based on the usual recovery time for this surgery. So we don't need to spend long and big on two starters. But we need someone to slot behind Cole who isn't a trainwreck. Tanaka was good this past year, and I would absolutely have him back on a short term deal. I absolutely would not offer him anything more than a 1-2 year deal. He will likely get better offers out there, so I would QO him and let him walk. Bauer will likely price himself out of NY's territory. The guy to keep an eye on is Stroman. He is remarkably consistent. He isnt a big K guy, but doesnt walk guys or allow lots of HR's. This is really important in YS. He had a rough 2018, but his peripherals and FIP were right in line with his production. He also just took 2020 off due to the pandemic and should be pretty fresh. My concern is that he will price himself out of the Yankees wishes and get a longer term deal out there. But he represents a pretty solid 3-4 yr deal offer type of pitcher. Charlie Morton may also be a target on a 1 yr deal.

 

3. Add a pen arm. The Rays proved that you can have an all star rotation, but if your pen is loaded with dominant relievers, you can shut anyone down. I wouldnt go top end here.

[Bellhorn04]

Cot's shows Britton contract is guaranteed for 2021 and the option year is 2022.

 

Have to give him credit for his pitching the last 2 games, he was clutch.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cots is wrong. Britton has a “swell-opt”. The Yanks need to opt into the final 2 years. If they don’t opt into the 2 years, Britton gets a player option for 2021

[Bellhorn04]

Cots is wrong. Britton has a “swell-opt”. The Yanks need to opt into the final 2 years. If they don’t opt into the 2 years, Britton gets a player option for 2021

 

Spotrac says the player option comes first.

[jacksonianmarch]

Spotrac says the player option comes first.

 

It does not.

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2019/01/08/mlb-trade-rumors-free-agency-swellopt

[Thunder]

There is absolutely no reason why the Yankees and Dodgers should NOT have played in the 2019 and 2020 World Series. My former roommate, a Yankees fan, wants Boone fired and replaced by Showalter. I don't know about Showalter, but I agree about canning Boone. He has shown time and again that he does not make good managerial decisions when it matters the most. Yes, this team has been injured for like the last 20 years in a row, but they won 100 games last year and started 16-6 this year. They have the talent no matter who is in the lineup.

 

And, for that matter, if the Braves beat the Dodgers in the NLCS, Roberts should be fired as well. That team has way too much talent to not make it.

[Bellhorn04]

There is absolutely no reason why the Yankees and Dodgers should NOT have played in the 2019 and 2020 World Series. My former roommate, a Yankees fan, wants Boone fired and replaced by Showalter. I don't know about Showalter, but I agree about canning Boone. He has shown time and again that he does not make good managerial decisions when it matters the most. Yes, this team has been injured for like the last 20 years in a row, but they won 100 games last year and started 16-6 this year. They have the talent no matter who is in the lineup.

 

The Yankees' "home run or strikeout" philosophy (obviously aside from DJL) has something to do with why their offense mysteriously disappears at times.

[Thunder]

The Yankees' "home run or strikeout" philosophy (obviously aside from DJL) has something to do with why their offense mysteriously disappears at times.

 

Yes. They certainly aren't experts at manufacturing runs or playing small ball. But, to play Devil's Advocate, that mindset has become the new norm in the game. It is telling, however, that the 4 teams left aren't really HR or bust type teams. The Astros aren't playing that way anymore. Anybody is capable of going deep, but they don't rely on it. Same for the Dodgers. They just have some much offensive firepower that 2-3 balls are bound to go out every night.

 

In the not too distant future, I think the majority of teams will be built like that, or at least the ones with the money to do so

[TylerD]

It does seem like the Yankees got outmanaged in that series. (Kevin) Cash doesn't seem to make any managerial mistakes at all.

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

In terms of payroll (all numbers are AAV)....

 

1. Cole- $36 mil

2. Stanton- $22 mil

3. Chapman- $17.4 mil

4. Britton- $13 mil (assuming Yanks pick up the option)

5. Hicks- $10 mil

6. Severino $10 mil

7. Ottavino- $8 mil

 

That's $116.4 mil. I am also assuming the Yanks opt out of Gardner's deal. I also expect them to non-tender Kahnle as he will miss all of 2021 and is in his final arb season. Add in $15 mil for medicals and you're at $131.4 mil. Now onto the arb totals

All arb estimates are entirely mine and mine alone, feel free to disagree, but give me your thoughts on amount. Also, $900K seems to be a popular first time arb number for players without solid track records, so I will use this a fair amount, FYI. Also, arbitration uses only the last 2 seasons.

 

8. Cessa- had a good 2020, not so good 2019. First year arbs for relievers without save totals are usually low. $900K

9. Frazier- good 2020 in limited role, not so good 2019. First year arb for him would be around $2 mil

10. German- solid 2019, no 2020 because he couldnt keep his hands to himself. Likely around Frazier at $2 mil

11. Green- coming off $1.2 mil arb salary, didnt do himself any favors with the HR allowed. His FIP went up a lot even though his ERA went down a lot from 2019. I'd peg him in the $3 mil range as a second arb

12. Heller- up and down and now injured. Likely to see $900K if not non-tendered

13. Higashioka- pre-arb- $600K

14. Holder- 2 straight poor seasons after a dominant 2018. He won't cost more than $900K

15. Judge- coming off $8.5 mil, was solid yet injury prone again. Second year arb's rise a lot. I'd peg him at $15 mil

16. Montgomery- season was better than it looked. FIP under 4, WAR of 0.9 in only 10 starts for a 5th guy. But, he's made only 17 starts the last 3 years. Won't see much of a raise. $1.2 mil

17. Loaisiga- pre-arb $600K

18. Tauchman- pre-arb $600K

19. Torres- first arb season for Gleyber. Otherworldly 2019, pretty bad 2020. Judge got $8.5 mil in his first time through, but far greater WAR than Torres. I will go with $6 mil

20. Urshela- first arb for him too. Defense picked up a lot, was on pace for a 4.3WAR season after a 3.1WAR season last year. Setting himself up for a good payday. $5 mil

21. Voit- first arb year for him and a doozy. Positive 2019 WAR but oft injured. Led the league in HR in 2020. Arbitration loves these figures. I am gonna go with a Torres-esque $6 mil

22. Wade- pre-arb $600K

23. Sanchez- I offer him a 1 yr contract for $4 mil. I do not allow him to go into the arb process, as his $5 mil contract will rise into the $8-$9 mil range. He lost his job as a catcher because he couldnt catch and lost his spot in the lineup because he couldnt hit.

 

My arb estimates are $49.3 mil for arbitration. That puts us at $180.7 mil. Add in the other 4 spots on the roster at minimum wage and then about $2 mil for the other 40 man guys and you are at $186 mil or so without any changes with the following team

 

C- Higashioka, Sanchez

1B- Voit

2B- Wade

3B- Urshela

SS- Torres

LF- Frazier

CF- Hicks

RF- Judge

DH- Stanton

 

SP1- Cole

SP2- German

SP3- Garcia

SP4- Montgomery

SP5 (recovering) Severino

 

CL- Chapman

SU- Britton

SU Green

MR- Heller

MR- Ottavino

 

The basic concepts of a playoff team are there. The lineup should be good. The rotation needs work until Sevy can return to his rightful place behind Cole. In terms of what will be needed....

 

1. Re-sign Lemahieu- If the Donaldson estimate is true, do it. 4 yrs $92 mil. My guess is he may come in a little lower than that as I think the bigger suitors are going to be less enthused about signing a 32 yr old in the wake of financial losses during a pandemic. But I think this is a reasonable deal based on the market.

 

2. Add to the rotation- we have some very solid kids ready to make the jump, but I only like one rookie at a time in the rotation. I pencil Deivi in more as a 4/5 and be surprised. Have Montgomery as the other 4/5 and know the last 2 slots are filled with cheap, productive talent. The ace is unquestioned. German is a shaky 3 as his HR propensity and lack of pitching the last 12 months makes him a dicey move to bet on. Severino, presuming no setbacks, should rejoin the rotation around the ASB and I would expect to see him in the vintage form by September based on the usual recovery time for this surgery. So we don't need to spend long and big on two starters. But we need someone to slot behind Cole who isn't a trainwreck. Tanaka was good this past year, and I would absolutely have him back on a short term deal. I absolutely would not offer him anything more than a 1-2 year deal. He will likely get better offers out there, so I would QO him and let him walk. Bauer will likely price himself out of NY's territory. The guy to keep an eye on is Stroman. He is remarkably consistent. He isnt a big K guy, but doesnt walk guys or allow lots of HR's. This is really important in YS. He had a rough 2018, but his peripherals and FIP were right in line with his production. He also just took 2020 off due to the pandemic and should be pretty fresh. My concern is that he will price himself out of the Yankees wishes and get a longer term deal out there. But he represents a pretty solid 3-4 yr deal offer type of pitcher. Charlie Morton may also be a target on a 1 yr deal.

 

3. Add a pen arm. The Rays proved that you can have an all star rotation, but if your pen is loaded with dominant relievers, you can shut anyone down. I wouldnt go top end here.

 

Good summary of where you guys are, right now. You certainly should be a major contender, next year, if injuries don't keep popping up like they have for multiple years, recently.

 

You don't have a lot of gaping holes to fill and your 40 man roster is deep. You even have some players not on the 40 man roster that look very promising- both now and down the road.

 

I think you really need a durable and near ace-like SP'er. That can be costly.

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s the interesting thing here. This isn’t a tear down. This isn’t a team with a glaring hole. We lost 2-1 in a deciding game against the best pitching staff in baseball and one of the best closers in the game and the best starter in the game gave up the two runs. It’s not exactly something that needs much improvement.

 

 

I like the depth of the team. If DJ moves on, we’ve got some glove first guys with speed who could take over and while clearly not replacing him, can at least upgrade or hold down the fort defensively. We have to consider Sanchez as a grunt bat and maybe backup catcher. We must, 100% avoid him being our bulk catcher. I like Higgy. I don’t want to see him relegated to backup duty for Sanchez. Yes, Sanchez is likely to come back and hit next year. He’s done this disappearing act before and followed it up with a solid year, but his defense is just not there. Yes, he can throw out runners, but his passed balls and framing are atrocious. There’s a reason why the best pitcher in baseball ousted him from behind the dish. Maybe we just move on from him entirely, get a solid defensive backup and live with the offense of Higgy and whomever. Maybe we just grab Romine again and pair him with Higgy. Who knows.

 

On the pitching front, I don’t think we need an ace behind Cole, but we need someone who can be a Robin to his Batman. Maybe Severino is that guy. Maybe German can be that guy. Maybe that guy is Tanaka, clearly excepting his two bad postseason starts this year. Maybe that guy ends up being Garcia? It’s too early to tell, but an upgrade in the rotation is entirely required. I’d look at the trade market for sure. Maybe with Bauer keen to move on, the Reds would deal off Castillo? The Yanks have the minor league talent for one big trade, especially if Dominguez is made available. But I could absolutely see Cashman nabbing Stroman and definitely kicking the tires on Bauer, yet I dont expect either. When you consider that the plan was for the Yanks to have Paxton, German and Severino in our rotation in 2020, we survived pretty well. But yes, we need a starter capable of giving effective innings who is durable and doesnt hit women.

Edited October 10, 2020 by jacksonianmarch

[jacksonianmarch]

The other major issue is that the Rays are mostly either locked up in contracts or locked up in pre-arbitration. Their only arb players are Choi, Glasnow, Renfroe, and Wendle. The rest of their team is pretty much pre-arb or locked up already. They're gonna be a pain in the ass again next year

[jacksonianmarch]

Rumor that the Yanks will resign DJ and deal Gleyber for pitching. Yanks could re-sign Didi or even go after KBO all star Ha-Seong Kim

[moonslav59]

Rumor that the Yanks will resign DJ and deal Gleyber for pitching. Yanks could re-sign Didi or even go after KBO all star Ha-Seong Kim

 

I hope they do. IMO, Gleyber will out perform DJ over the length of DJ's contract- not because I think DJ will do poorly, but Torres will improve. Keep the younger and cheaper guy or both.

[notin]

Rumor that the Yanks will resign DJ and deal Gleyber for pitching. Yanks could re-sign Didi or even go after KBO all star Ha-Seong Kim

 

After which, they should fire Cashman. I assume Boone will be long gone.

 

The Yankees should trade Dominguez and Frazier before dealing Torres...

[notin]

After which, they should fire Cashman. I assume Boone will be long gone.

 

The Yankees should trade Dominguez and Frazier before dealing Torres...

 

Or.. crazy though... deal Judge for pitching. The guy is about to get crazy expensive through arbitration, and he might be worth it if he wasn't always injured. And unlike with Torres, the Yankees already have a replacement in-house in Frazier...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It sounds like the Yankees may decide to move Torres believing he is a major liability in the field. That is, Torres belongs at 2b or 3b--he sucks defensively at SS. Thus, the Yankees could be in the market for a starting SS and may decide to trade Torres or move him to second base (pass on Lemaheiu) or 3b (and trade Urshela).

[moonslav59]

It sounds like the Yankees may decide to move Torres believing he is a major liability in the field. That is, Torres belongs at 2b or 3b--he sucks defensively at SS. Thus, the Yankees could be in the market for a starting SS and may decide to trade Torres or move him to second base (pass on Lemaheiu) or 3b (and trade Urshela).

 

I hope they trade Torres. It will hurt them.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Perhaps they should pass on Lemahieu, sign Didi instead, and move Torres to 2b. That's what I would do. Didi would also add a much needed left handed bat.

 

I wonder what will happen to Tanaka? There is talk he could return to Japan. Hasn't Japan dealt with Covid-19 much better than the U.S.? That could be a factor in his decision-making.

Edited October 15, 2020 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

Cots is wrong. Britton has a “swell-opt”. The Yanks need to opt into the final 2 years. If they don’t opt into the 2 years, Britton gets a player option for 2021

 

Have confirmed this is 100% correct.

[notin]

It sounds like the Yankees may decide to move Torres believing he is a major liability in the field. That is, Torres belongs at 2b or 3b--he sucks defensively at SS. Thus, the Yankees could be in the market for a starting SS and may decide to trade Torres or move him to second base (pass on Lemaheiu) or 3b (and trade Urshela).

 

If I am running the Yankees, I bring in Andrelton Simmons to play SS. No one can shore up their middle infield defense better.

 

While trading Torres seems foolish, it would have to be tough to let LeMahieu go, as he has been their best player the last two years. I think an infield of LeMahieu at 1B, Torres at 2B and Urshela at 3B with Voit at DH makes the most sense.

 

The first guy on that team I try to move for a pitcher would be Sanchez. If I found nothing I liked, I'd try to sell high on Voit or Urshela (with LeMahieu taking 3B). I only move Torres if the return really dazzles me.

 

That said, BTV gives Torres a trade value surplus of $61.6 million. That's roughly equal to Miami's Sixto Sanchez ($63.6 million), Detroit's Casey Mize ($60.5 million) and Detroit's Matt Manning ($59.8 million). While Miami already has some dirt cheap middle infield talent in Jaz Chisholm and Isan Diaz, the Tigers are loaded with younger pitching and have nothing at 2B or SS, and do have a big, big need for hitting at pretty much any position. I could see a potential deal there.

 

Torres for Mize. Yankee fans?

[jacksonianmarch]

I hate the idea of dealing Torres. I was just reporting what was being bandied about. Simmons cannot stay healthy, so getting a SS who cannot stay healthy on a team that cannot stay healthy makes little sense, especially for a player on the wrong side of 30 who’s quickness and speed are his greatest calling cards.

 

We have to re-sign DJ. In a lineup of swing and miss, I don’t think we can win a title without a contact oriented player like DJ. If there were others out there, then fine, but he’s a unicorn in today’s league.

 

The guy who’s easiest dealt is Andujar. His value isn’t what it was after 2018, but it’s also not zero. He’s blocked here.

[moonslav59]

I hate the idea of dealing Torres. I was just reporting what was being bandied about. Simmons cannot stay healthy, so getting a SS who cannot stay healthy on a team that cannot stay healthy makes little sense, especially for a player on the wrong side of 30 who’s quickness and speed are his greatest calling cards.

 

We have to re-sign DJ. In a lineup of swing and miss, I don’t think we can win a title without a contact oriented player like DJ. If there were others out there, then fine, but he’s a unicorn in today’s league.

 

The guy who’s easiest dealt is Andujar. His value isn’t what it was after 2018, but it’s also not zero. He’s blocked here.

 

Moving Torres back to 2B makes the most sense. You need an actual SS not DJ.

[moonslav59]

If I am running the Yankees, I bring in Andrelton Simmons to play SS. No one can shore up their middle infield defense better.

 

 

Yes!

 

Move Torres back to 2B and you have a much better team than Torres at SS & DJ at 2B.

 

For this reason, I hope they sign DJ.