A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Franchy's problem is health. If he could stay on the field for a full season, he could be an interesting guy. Legit 30/30 guy.

 

Wily Mo wasn't a high injury risk and was ultimately one dimensional and never really showed it on the field.

 

Exactly.

 

The guy has 416 PA spread out over 4 seasons. His K rate in the minors was a hair over 20%. Granted, lesser pitching, but it also shows he can put the ball in play with greater frequency....

[jacksonianmarch]

Aaron Judge: 31.4 k% career

Wily Mo Pena: 30.3 k% career

 

Judge happens to be the unicorn here, is what I am saying. But I think you already know that

[mvp 78]

Judge happens to be the unicorn here, is what I am saying. But I think you already know that

 

Ah yes, all Yankees players are special and magical. All Red Sox players are boring and common. I get it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah yes, all Yankees players are special and magical. All Red Sox players are boring and common. I get it.

 

Well, right now they are. You do have the 4th pick in the draft for a reason

[notin]

Well, right now they are. You do have the 4th pick in the draft for a reason

 

How good would the Yankees have been last year without Gerrit Cole?

[jacksonianmarch]

How good would the Yankees have been last year without Gerrit Cole?

 

Still better than the sox

[notin]

Still better than the sox

 

Yes, 9 games better than a Sox team that was down it's TWO bet starters. Put the Yankees in that position, and maybe Seattle replaces them as a wild card...

[mvp 78]

Well, right now they are. You do have the 4th pick in the draft for a reason

 

Let me try a good Yankee fan argument...

 

Last 20 years:

 

Red Sox 4 WS

Yankees 1 WS

[moonslav59]

Until we know what? How is Cordero ever going to learn to hit LHP if he “never” get to start? His career right now consists of 72 plate vs LHP spread out over 4 seasons. That’s meaningless data...

 

Good point.

 

We don't know, for sure. He may start out as our FT CF'er until he proves he can't hit lefties or shows he can.

 

I checked out his minor league splits, and you have to go back to 2017 to find a significant sample size v LHPs: AAA

.717 in 97 ABs (1.054 v RHPs in 293 ABs)

 

in AA (2016)

.833 v L (64 ABs)

.834 v R (181)

 

A+ (2016)

.939 v L (59)

.744 v R (238)

 

A (2015)

.623 v L (99)

.592 v R (382)

 

These numbers are more encouraging than his small MLB sample size v LHPs.

[moonslav59]

How do you bat a .740 hitting 2b ahead of Vaz?

 

Okay, Vaz will probably be slotted ahead of EHern- maybe 8th or 7th- not 5th.

[moonslav59]

Still better than the sox

 

Maybe a .500 team?

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on the Sox...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/red-sox-notes-bloom-martinez-chavis.html

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, 9 games better than a Sox team that was down it's TWO bet starters. Put the Yankees in that position, and maybe Seattle replaces them as a wild card...

 

9 games better... in a 60 game season.

[notin]

9 games better... in a 60 game season.

 

Think you're 90 games better if the Sox have Sale and ERod?

 

The Sox 3rd, 4th, and 5th most frequent SPs were Zack Godley, Chris Mazza and Ryan Weber.

[moonslav59]

Think you're 90 games better if the Sox have Sale and ERod?

 

The Sox 3rd, 4th, and 5th most frequent SPs were Zack Godley, Chris Mazza and Ryan Weber.

 

The prorated number would be about 23-24 games.

[moonslav59]

Think you're 90 games better if the Sox have Sale and ERod?

 

The Sox 3rd, 4th, and 5th most frequent SPs were Zack Godley, Chris Mazza and Ryan Weber.

 

I doubt Perez leads the team in IP again, but it could happen. These guys should see zero or much fewer IP in 2021. Addition by subtraction:

 

3 Weber

4 Valdez

5 Mazza

6 Godley

7 Brewer

10 Springs

11 Brice

13 Osich

14 Covey

15 Kickham

16 stock

17 Walden

18 Hart

 

For some context, Hart had 2% of the team’s IP. Prorated to a full season, he would have had 28 IP.

 

13 out of the top 18 IP guys pretty much replaced by Richards, ERod, Ottavino, Sale and more from Houck, Pivetta, Barnes, DHern, Brasier, Sawamura and Andriese-Whitlock

Edited February 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I doubt Perez leads the team in IP again, but it could happen.

 

Depending on ERod's health, I could see Perez leading the team with 190 innings or so. Richards is a question mark for sure. Sale won't be there for a full season. Eovaldi is almost never healthy.

[moonslav59]

Depending on ERod's health, I could see Perez leading the team with 190 innings or so. Richards is a question mark for sure. Sale won't be there for a full season. Eovaldi is almost never healthy.

 

Yes, very doable but maybe not such a bad thing, if others are close behind.

[notin]

Depending on ERod's health, I could see Perez leading the team with 190 innings or so. Richards is a question mark for sure. Sale won't be there for a full season. Eovaldi is almost never healthy.

 

Pivetta!!

[mvp 78]

Pivetta!!

 

Not sure he'll be effective enough to get to 180 innings.

[harmony]

Depending on ERod's health, I could see Perez leading the team with 190 innings or so. Richards is a question mark for sure. Sale won't be there for a full season. Eovaldi is almost never healthy.

Steamer projects that Martin Perez will lead the Red Sox in inning with 161:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=9,d

 

Other Perez projections call for fewer than 161 innings:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/martin-perez/6902/stats?position=P

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezma02.shtml

[mvp 78]

Steamer projects that Martin Perez will lead the Red Sox in inning with 161:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=9,d

 

Other Perez projections call for fewer than 161 innings:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/martin-perez/6902/stats?position=P

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezma02.shtml

 

150 for ERod sounds low. We'll see.

 

Austin Brice getting 55 innings though? Woof. Or not.

[moonslav59]

If anybody cannot see the chance for a vast improvement from our pitching staff over 2020, please speak up, now.

 

Here are the fangraphs projected IP vs 2020's prorated IP (2020 IP x 2.7):

 

IP

2020 Pitcher 2021

147 Perez 161 (+14)

125 Eovaldi 149 (+24)

115 Weber > ERod 152 (+37)

81 Valdez 28 (-53)

79 Mazza> Richards 122 (+43)

75 Godley> Sale 84 (+9)

67 Brewer 24 (-43)

65 Brasier 56 (-9)

60 Barnes 65 (+5)

52 Springs> Ottavino 64 (+12)

50 Brice 55 (+5)

43 Houck 111 (+68)

38 Osich >Andriese 60 (+22)

36 Covey> Seabold 37 (+1)

36 Kickham> Whitlock 16 (-20)

33 Stock> Schreiber 10 (-23)

33 Walden 16 (-17)

28 Hart> Gossett 9 (-19)

26 Pivetta 95 (+79)

25 Hembree> McCarthy 6 (-19)

24 Hall> Feltman 5 (-19)

22 DHern 42 (+20)

21 Triggs> Bazardo 3 (-18)

20 Taylor 35 (+15)

[moonslav59]

A better way to look at the massive overhaul of the IP load from 2020 to 2021 is like this:

 

2020 Pitchers (prorated IP) that will pitch ZERO IP (or close to zero) in 2021:

115 Weber

79 Mazza

75 Godley

52 Springs

38 Osich

36 Covey

36 Kickham

33 Stock

25 Hembree

24 Hall

21 Triggs

 

Pitchers with significant drop off in IP projected:

81 Valdez

67 Brewer

33 Walden

28 Hart

 

Pitchers with about the same IP in 2021 as their prorated IP in 2020:

147 Perez

125 Eovaldi

65 Brasier

60 Barnes

50 Brice (hopefully much less)

 

Pitchers with more IP projected for the Sox than in 2020

43 Houck to 111

26 Pivetta to 95

22 DHern to 42 (I could see much more)

20 Taylor to 35

0 ERod to 152

0 Sale to 84

0 Richards to 122

0 Ottavino to 64

0 Andriese to 60

0 Seabold to 37

0 Whitlock to 12

0 Schreiber to 10

 

To simplify, maybe...

 

SP

Richards + Sale give us 200 IP

ERod +160

Pivetta + Houck +160 combined from pro-rated 2020 numbers

 

RP

+60 Ottavino

+60 DHern + Taylor from 2020

+60 Andriese

 

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Maybe you'd like this...

 

1. Verrdugo

2. Bogey

3. Renfroe/Cordero

4. Devers

5. JD

6. Dalbec

7. EHern

8. Vaz

9. Arroyo or Cordero/Renfroe (off handed)

 

I could live with that.

[moonslav59]

We could easily see 550 more IP than 2020 from ERod, Richards, Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta & Houck.

 

In the pen, we could see 200 more IP than 2020 from Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura, DHern, Taylor and Barnes.

[moonslav59]

I could live with that.

 

I think this might be what is wanted:

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Bogey SS

3. Renfroe v L RF /Cordero v R CF

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Dalbec 3B

7. Renfroe v L/ Cordero v R or Arroyo/Chavis/Gonzalez 2B

8. Vaz C

9. EHern 2B (CF)

 

 

[harmony]

150 for ERod sounds low. We'll see.

 

Austin Brice getting 55 innings though? Woof. Or not.

Perhaps 150 innings is optimistic for Eduardo Rodriguez coming off a bed-ridden season of myocarditis.

[moonslav59]

150 for ERod sounds low. We'll see.

 

Austin Brice getting 55 innings though? Woof. Or not.

 

Brice was on pace for about 50 IP, last year. 55 is basically the same, but yes, if we can get those 50 from a better pitcher, the better off we should be.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps 150 innings is optimistic for Eduardo Rodriguez coming off a bed-ridden season of myocarditis.

 

I could see 120 or 170-most likely in between.