A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Their defense was fine. It wasn't otherworldly. I think they were just solid across the board pitching/defense/hitting.

 

Their hitting was not solid. Not even close. They ran the bases well and had timely hitting, but their hitting was average, at best.

[Bellhorn04]

Their hitting was not solid. Not even close. They ran the bases well and had timely hitting, but their hitting was average, at best.

 

No, their OPS+ was 109, so above average. The TropDump is run-suppressing.

[mvp 78]

Their hitting was not solid. Not even close. They ran the bases well and had timely hitting, but their hitting was average, at best.

 

And kinda interesting that their two worst fielding positions may have been SS and C.

[moonslav59]

No, their OPS+ was 109, so above average. The TropDump is run-suppressing.

 

Good points.

 

They are 13th in OPS and 9th in OPS+ and wRC+. They placed 13th in wOBA and wRAA.

 

They were #1 in wSB and 10th in UBR.

 

I stand corrected. They can be considered near top 10.

[moonslav59]

And kinda interesting that their two worst fielding positions may have been SS and C.

 

They're breaking all the rules, right?

 

(3B was pretty bad....)

 

Ray's UZR/150 by Position:

22.4 CF

6.7 2B

6.5 1B

4.5 RF

1.8 LF

-1.6 SS

-5.5 3B

[mvp 78]

They're breaking all the rules, right?

 

(3B was pretty bad....)

 

Ray's UZR/150 by Position:

22.4 CF

6.7 2B

6.5 1B

4.5 RF

1.8 LF

-1.6 SS

-5.5 3B

 

So Kiermaier is conclusively better than JBJ? JBJ is NOT the greatest living CFer?

[notin]

So Kiermaier is conclusively better than JBJ? JBJ is NOT the greatest living CFer?

 

Not while Willie Mays is still alive....

[oldtimer]

They're breaking all the rules, right?

 

(3B was pretty bad....)

 

Ray's UZR/150 by Position:

22.4 CF

6.7 2B

6.5 1B

4.5 RF

1.8 LF

-1.6 SS

-5.5 3B

 

My view of Willie Adames is that he is a magician at short with great range a rifle arm and to me it brings the UZR rating into serious question. Adames doesn't hit well but his defense is great. Joey Wendell is likewise with great range and soft hands. His throws are in question but perhaps he wasn't the third baseman for much of the season. Maybe that is where the negative UZR comes from.

 

I believe what my eyes tell me. JBJ is a fantastic defensive center fielder but apparently the defensive metrics don't reflect what we see. Is it bad perception or questionable metrics?

[moonslav59]

My view of Willie Adames is that he is a magician at short with great range a rifle arm and to me it brings the UZR rating into serious question. Adames doesn't hit well but his defense is great. Joey Wendell is likewise with great range and soft hands. His throws are in question but perhaps he wasn't the third baseman for much of the season. Maybe that is where the negative UZR comes from.

 

I haven't seen him play enough to know how good he is.

[notin]

My view of Willie Adames is that he is a magician at short with great range a rifle arm and to me it brings the UZR rating into serious question. Adames doesn't hit well but his defense is great. Joey Wendell is likewise with great range and soft hands. His throws are in question but perhaps he wasn't the third baseman for much of the season. Maybe that is where the negative UZR comes from.

 

I believe what my eyes tell me. JBJ is a fantastic defensive center fielder but apparently the defensive metrics don't reflect what we see. Is it bad perception or questionable metrics?

 

Adames might have great range, but a player can have a negative UZR if 15 shortstops have better range...

[oldtimer]

Adames might have great range, but a player can have a negative UZR if 15 shortstops have better range...

 

They don't

[moonslav59]

According to fangraphs, he has the 3rd best range, but falls short in other areas.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=22,d

 

2019-2020 (400+ innings at SS)

Adames ranks 3rd out of 33 in RngR but 10th in UZR/150 at +2.5

 

2018-2020 (26 SSs with 1500 innings at SS)

Adames is 7th in RngR

24th in ErrR

19th DPR

 

21st in UZR/150 at -3.7

 

On DRS, he ranks 12th out of 26 at +7.

Edited October 21, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

They don't

 

But several certainly.

 

UZR also involves more than just range. Having great range is good, but you still have to get the guy out...

[notin]

According to fangraphs, he has the 3rd best range, but falls short in other areas.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=22,d

 

2019-2020 (400+ innings at SS)

Adames ranks 3rd out of 33 in RngR but 10th in UZR/150 at +2.5

 

2018-2020 (26 SSs with 1500 innings at SS)

Adames is 7th in RngR

24th in ErrR

19th DPR

 

21st in UZR/150 at -3.7

 

On DRS, he ranks 12th out of 26 at +7.

 

Looking at that table, shortstop metrics might be getting messed up by the shifts. There are a lot of guys who have nearly as many "out of zone" plays as "in zone" plays.

[oldtimer]

Looking at that table, shortstop metrics might be getting messed up by the shifts. There are a lot of guys who have nearly as many "out of zone" plays as "in zone" plays.

 

Very good point. The Rays shift a great deal.

[moonslav59]

How many times has anyone here watched with (intentional focus) Adames play?

 

I'm not saying he's better or worse than the numbers show, but the eye test on any nonSox player is always questionable, to me. And when we talk about how good ssomeone is, even a Sox player, it is always within the context of comparative value to others at their position.

 

So, even if our player looks great, it's hard to know how many others are greater. There could be 15- making our guy "below average."

[Bellhorn04]

How many times has anyone here watched with (intentional focus) Adames play?

 

I'm not saying he's better or worse than the numbers show, but the eye test on any nonSox player is always questionable, to me. And when we talk about how good ssomeone is, even a Sox player, it is always within the context of comparative value to others at their position.

 

So, even if our player looks great, it's hard to know how many others are greater. There could be 15- making our guy "below average."

 

Jeter is Exhibit A for why the eye test alone ain't enough. Like many, I'm sure, (including Gold Glove voters) I was shocked to hear how bad his advanced metrics were.

[moonslav59]

Jeter is Exhibit A for why the eye test alone ain't enough. Like many, I'm sure, (including Gold Glove voters) I was shocked to hear how bad his advanced metrics were.

 

He never impressed my eyes.

 

Okay, he made a few flashy plays that got my attention, but despite his spry appearance, he always seems like a statue to me. His range wasn't bad his first few years, but then, poof- presto- he morphed into the worst everyday, defensive SS I have ever seen.

[Bellhorn04]

He never impressed my eyes.

 

Okay, he made a few flashy plays that got my attention, but despite his spry appearance, he always seems like a statue to me. His range wasn't bad his first few years, but then, poof- presto- he morphed into the worst everyday, defensive SS I have ever seen.

 

You're a more studious observer than I was. I assumed Jeter was good because he didn't make many errors.

[moonslav59]

You're a more studious observer than I was. I assumed Jeter was good because he didn't make many errors.

 

I've always been a big fan of defense, especially SS and CF. I have always focused on watching those positions and often lamented, "Why can't we ever have a great defensive SS?" (I sang and rejoiced when we traded for OCab. Nomar was always over-rated on D.) Many of my beliefs about several players came long before I knew about or paid much attention to defensive metrics. I used to look at RF/9 a little bit. Jeter had a good arm, especially on relay throws to the plate. He rarely made unforced errors. That's the only thing that keeps him from being the worst defensive SS of all time. (He's pretty close, now, if you only count long time SSs.

Edited October 22, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

You're a more studious observer than I was. I assumed Jeter was good because he didn't make many errors.

 

That's the thing about errors. They do not tell much of a story at all.

 

For example, say you are managing a fictional baseball team called the Harrisburg Hypotheticals. You have two starting shortstop candidates and need to start the better defender of the two. So you have your coach hit each of them 100 identical ground balls.

 

Shortstop A only gets to 80 of them, but makes all 80 plays.

 

Shortstop B gets to all 100, but makes 10 errors.

 

Who is your starter?

[notin]

I've always been a big fan of defense, especially SS and CF. I have always focused on watching those positions and often lamented, "Why can't we ever have a great defensive SS?" (I sang and rejoiced when we traded for OCab. Nomar was always over-rated on D.) Many of my beliefs about several players came long before I knew about or paid much attention to defensive metrics. I used to look at RF/9 a little bit. Jeter had a good arm, especially on relay throws to the plate. He rarely made unforced errors. That's the only thing that keeps him from being the worst defensive SS of all time. (He's pretty close, now, if you only count long time SSs.

 

I used to like Range Factor as a defensive metric. But then I realized there were too many outside factors that influenced it, such as pitching staff and ballpark. It really only works for comparing two players who play the same position on the same team...

[moonslav59]

That's the thing about errors. They do not tell much of a story at all.

 

For example, say you are managing a fictional baseball team called the Harrisburg Hypotheticals. You have two starting shortstop candidates and need to start the better defender of the two. So you have your coach hit each of them 100 identical ground balls.

 

Shortstop A only gets to 80 of them, but makes all 80 plays.

 

Shortstop B gets to all 100, but makes 10 errors.

 

Who is your starter?

 

B and it's not even close. Even if 6-7 times out of those 10, the guy gets to 2B on the error.

[moonslav59]

I used to like Range Factor as a defensive metric. But then I realized there were too many outside factors that influenced it, such as pitching staff and ballpark. It really only works for comparing two players who play the same position on the same team...

 

Yes, but I still viewed it as at least equal to Fld%.

[notin]

B and it's not even close. Even if 6-7 times out of those 10, the guy gets to 2B on the error.

 

What if all 10 are two-base errors?

[moonslav59]

What if all 10 are two-base errors?

 

I'd need to get out my calculator.

[moonslav59]

Farm piece...

 

https://www.milb.com/news/state-of-the-system-boston-red-sox

[moonslav59]

What are posters' thoughts on signing Jake Marisnick to a cheap deal?

 

He's a plus defender who has power. He's got a .738 OPS over the last 4 years- much of which was padded by his 2017 season (.815), but he does have a .726 OPS over the past 2 seasons with 20+ HR power (kinda like JBJ at .760 the last 2 seasons combined).

 

He'd probably take a 1-2 year deal at a very low cost. I think he'd be better than Dyson, Hamilton or J Jay.

 

I like Pillar better, but maybe as a plan B, assuming JBJ signs elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

What are posters' thoughts on signing Jake Marisnick to a cheap deal?

 

He's a plus defender who has power. He's got a .738 OPS over the last 4 years- much of which was padded by his 2017 season (.815), but he does have a .726 OPS over the past 2 seasons with 20+ HR power (kinda like JBJ at .760 the last 2 seasons combined).

 

He'd probably take a 1-2 year deal at a very low cost. I think he'd be better than Dyson, Hamilton or J Jay.

 

I like Pillar better, but maybe as a plan B, assuming JBJ signs elsewhere.

 

Whoever they get, it's going to have a Mike Cameron feel. I think anything they do at 2b or CF will be for minor pieces that are just fill ins until Downs and Duran are ready.

[moonslav59]

Whoever they get, it's going to have a Mike Cameron feel. I think anything they do at 2b or CF will be for minor pieces that are just fill ins until Downs and Duran are ready.

 

That may be part of the equation. I'm not all that high on Duran's chances at proving he can be our FT CF'er, but either way, Marisnick would be just a place-holder for the next "real deal" CF'er.

 

Right now, our major focus should be pitching. Getting a plus defender in CF would help in that area, too.