2020 Yankees Season thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, 2020 is going to be a banner year! Or so we thought. The injury bug which didn't really hinder the Yanks until the cheating Astros took them out in 6 has reared its ugly head again. Returning are mostly the same cast of characters. Gone are Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. Both missed considerable time last year, one missed all but one game. Retired is Sabathia, who effectively lived as the 5th starter for a team ravaged by injuries until his arm let loose in his last appearance. In comes the new Yankee golden goose in Gerrit Cole. Cole is as dominant a pitcher as there is. Impeccable control of a powerful and deep arsenal. A guy who's first loss after May 15 was in game 1 of the WS. He jumps to the front of the team. Gone for 2020 is Severino. TJS surgery done today knocks him out into the 2021 season. Paxton had back surgery, but his timeline keeps creeping up as he's due to take a mound again next week. Initial estimates were late May to June, the most recent article I saw was late April. Domingo German received the punishment he so rightly deserved. While his slap was less than what Addison Russell got for doing far worse, it should be a deterrent for the same garbage happening again. German is going to go from pariah to much needed reinforcement when he can return around June 1. Judge has been hindered by a shoulder, but is coming along well. Stanton is down with a calf, but shouldn't (read as this injury should be a 2-4 week injury, not a 5 month injury like last year) take him out for much of April, but he is likely to miss the first week of the season. So without further adieu, the Yanks for 2020 should look like this

[jacksonianmarch]

C- Sanchez, Higashioka.

 

Gary Sanchez was one of the best hitters in baseball through June last year then fell off considerably. His defense ticked up, but ticked up from being one of the worst catchers in baseball isn't that big of a compliment. Still, he put up a 2.3WAR in only 106 games blasting 34 homers and OPS'ing over .800. For a catcher, that's pretty damn good. He still remains one of, if not the, best offensive catchers in the game. One other detraction for Sanchez is health. Gary has missed a lot of time with a groin issue the past 2 seasons. Unsure if that's going to continue or not, but he isn't exactly an iron man out there.

 

Backing him up is Kyle Higashioka. Kyle is a strong armed, stiff defender who doesn't profile to be as good defensively as his predecessor, Romine, was. But he has far more pop. Higa smashed 23 homers in only 80 games last year between AAA and the bigs. He also isn't a kid. Kyle is 29 yrs old and has been in the Yanks system for 12 years. He should provide a defensive improvement over Sanchez, but not by the extent Romine did. Time will tell if the power will make up for that loss

 

1B- Voit, Ford, Andujar

 

The leader in the clubhouse for the opening day nod is Voit. Voit was absolutely destroying baseballs to the tune of a .902OPS and 17 bombs before the break. But right before the ASB, the Yanks played in London and Luke injured himself running to second. He tore his abdominal wall in that game and tried to play through needing sports hernia surgery. Ultimately, he couldn't and didn't even make the post season roster. He had surgery this offseason. If you put together Luke's finish to 2018 and beginning of 2019, you have a 32HR guy in about 110 games with an OPS well over .940. He has blossomed as a hitter and deserves the chance. He just needs to stay healthy.

 

Behind Voit is Mike Ford. An undrafted 1b out of Princeton, Ford has quietly been exceeding expectations as a hitter. With all the injuries, he got to the bigs and translated his production in AAA to the majors. He has carved out a spot in the lineup with NY and if he continues to produce, will find his way into the lineup. He also isn't a young kid (27 yrs old), but he follows the Luke Voit career path to a T. High exit velocity, light tower power, great eye. What these two guys will lack is any semblance of defense.

 

For Andujar, he is going to be listed everywhere. He is a line to line hitter with 30 HR pop and no ability to walk. Coming, with that, though, is a strong ability to avoid the K. The Yanks have a lot of swing and miss in their lineup, and his ability to make contact will find him a spot on a daily basis in the lineup. He is a .300-30-100 kind of hitter and those don't grow on trees. He will likely find himself in the DH role out of ST until Stanton returns

 

2B- Lemahieu, Wade, Estrada, Urshela

 

DJ Lemahieu has always been a hitter. Great with RISP, hard to K, good enough eye, okay power. But his RF approach was built for YS. He has become an expert at sneaking the ball into the stands over the short porch. He is our leadoff hitter and likely wont be as great as last year, but he is set for an excellent contract year in NY

 

Tyler Wade is a guy who I have liked for awhile and he fits in here as the primary middle infield backup outside of maybe Gio Urshela. Wade is a slick fielding lefty hitter with a good contact stroke and lightning fast wheels. If he ever got the shot at a full time spot, he could steal over 30 bases. But he won't here and that's ok. He will likely see a fair amount of time for rest days for Lemahieu and Torres while filling in at 3b as well. His lefty swing could generate more power than he had in the minors simply because of the short porch, but if he hit 10HR over a 162 game season, I would be surprised

 

Thairo Estrada is another interesting kid who I like. Good, but not great speed, good contact, no power, slick glove. He is the righty version of Wade minus the extra gear. Over a 162 game season, Estrada might steal 15 bags. He has better contact skills than Wade and could be a .300 hitter in the making, but unless we have epic injuries to the MIF, he won't get that chance

 

SS- Torres, Wade, Estrada, Urshela

 

Gleyber Torres had one of the best seasons as a 22 yr old that a Yankee has ever had. 38HR, 90RBI as a middle infielder is very valuable. His defense, though, was suspect and now he shifts to SS. He is known to have a good glove, but needs to show it at SS. If he can even be a decent SS defensively, he could elevate his game to MVP level.

 

3B- Urshela, Andujar, Wade, Estrada

 

Gio Urshela is the player I worry the most about. Gio put on some muscle last year and had as career a year as you can have. He set career highs in everything and made all the plays at 3B, which his predecessor couldn't. This is why Urshela is the starting 3b out the gate and Andujar isn't. But there is a real chance Gio had his career year and fades. How big of a fade will depend on where he goes. It would be rare for a player to show off the power he did last year and then completely lose it, but that average is gonna drop. If he can hit .270 with 15HR and play good D at 3b, he would be worth it. If he cannot, then Andujar will get his chance

 

LF- Tauchman, Frazier, Gardner

 

Tauchman had himself a year last year. Another Cashman find, Tauchman had long been a great hitter in the Colorado system but didn't get a chance in their crowded outfield. So the Yanks picked him up and he continued to crush in the bigs. He also showed great baserunning and gold glove caliber defense. Out of the gate, he would be better served in CF, but I expect Boone to give that honor to Gardner. Tauchman in Yankee Stadium could be an absolute monster. His lines in AAA from 17-18 were no joke and now that he knows he can play at this level, the sky is the limit. I think we likely see Urshela drop this year. I think we might see Tauchman become a monster in the Bronx, enough so to see Gardy relegated to 4th OF duty when Hicks returns.

 

Clint Frazier has quietly looked really, really good in ST. He has changed his swing around and has shown more drive and a quicker bat, if that is to be believed. With Stanton slated for the IL, Frazier appears to have the 4th OFer spot on lockdown coming out of ST. We will see if he can rebuild his stock. His bat is not in question, as his lifetime OPS over .800 entails. The glove is what needs to show better.

 

CF- Gardner, Hicks, Tauchman

 

Hicks will be back by June 1 by conservative estimates, so Gardner is the guy on opening day. I actually think our best alignment is to have our best OF defender not named Judge in CF, but Boone will throw Gardy here. Gardy showed a power renaissance in the juiced ball era hitting a career high 28 bombs. Interestingly, Gardy's BABIP went down from his career worst 2018 to his best in 2019, but his ISO doubled. At 36, going on 37, it isn't realistic to expect a repeat of 2019. I actually expect Gardy to be our 4th OFer, maybe 5th OFer by the end of the year, but he should continue to provide some pop, good at bats, great defense and good speed when in the lineup.

 

Aaron Hicks is coming off an injury marred 2019 campaign that started with a back injury and finished with Tommy John. In the 2 years prior to 2019, he totaled 8.3 WAR. Last year, in only 59 games, he was at 1.1. When on the field, he is a 3+ WAR player. He just needs to find a way to stay on the field. He is a premium defender with a rocket arm, a good eye and a lot of pop. We will see when he returns how his recovery translates into production

 

RF- Judge, Frazier

 

Aaron Judge has been only health away from being a perennial MVP candidate. He's missed 90+ games total the past 2 seasons and still has averaged 6WAR a season since he came to the bigs. A shoulder injury has slowed him out the gate, but he is expected to make it for opening day. If he can put a full 162 together, he could be a monster.

 

DH- Stanton, Andujar, Ford, Frazier, Gardner, etc

 

Stanton is the DH. Let's just put that out there. He will start the year on the IL but should be ready by the first week of April. He essentially missed the entire season last year, but to expect him to do the same this year is a fools errand. He is still a premium power hitter in the league and capable of hitting 40HR every single season he throws on the jersey. My expectation is that we see him in about 120 games maximum this year as I think load management will be critical to ensure he isn't a pile of junk come October. He is a former MVP still in his prime, so don't write him off yet

[jacksonianmarch]

Starters

 

1. Cole- the best starter in baseball last year, he’s in his prime with power to spare and a great arsenal. He’s exactly what we needed to lead our rotation.

 

2. Paxton- will return by May 1 as of right now. When healthy, he’s an elite performer. The problem is, he isn’t healthy for full seasons. Then again, he’s heading into a contract year.

 

3. Tanaka- dominant postseason starter. Very reliable mid rotation guy during the year. He’s been a 2.3-4.6 WAR starter every year. He’s also in a contract year

 

4. German- suspended for the first 60 games. Last year, won 18 of 24 starts. Was pretty dominant outside of a sky high HR rate. I’d expect that to drop a bit. He’s got the stuff to lead a rotation if he can avoid the HR a bit

 

5. Happ- fell off after 4 years of 3 WAR annual production in 2019. Stuff picked up in September and thus far this spring, stuff has ticked back up. Likely won’t see the halcyon days of 3ERA’s, but maybe he can be in the low 4’s and be effective

 

6. Montgomery- now fully recovered from TJS. His velocity has ticked up past his usual this spring. Had a solid near 3 WAR as a rookie. If he stays healthy, he could be a bit more. Definitely slated for the rotation at the outset

 

7. Loaisiga- powerful arm, no health. Currently healthy, but hasn’t passed 80 innings in a season as a pro. Likely headed for relief, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the yanks use him as a bulk guy out of the getgo before moving to the pen

 

8. King- King had a dynamite 2018 and was the next man up as the 2019 season started. The problem is, he developed an elbow tendinitis and missed the first half of the year. He only made it to 46 innings in 2019 in what was mostly a lost year. He’s healthy now, but has fallen down the list of guys due to the depth in the system. He also has the lowest upside of the prospects close to big league readiness. He does strike people out, but he’s more the 8K per 9 guy rather than the powerhouses behind him who K 10 or more per 9. He’s also more an impeccable command, sinker slider guy who is more going to be a reliable guy than a top level guy, so the yanks won’t have patience with him

 

9. Deivi Garcia- Garcia is in contention to make the rotation out of the spring, but I doubt he will make it. He doesn’t turn 21 til May and didn’t dominate AAA yet. Garcia has the best stuff of anyone in the system. Mid 90s heat, dominant slider, bugs bunny change. His issue has been command. He regressed a lot in that category in 2019. His walk rate jumped to 4.5BB/9IP which won’t be sustainable in the bigs. But his swing and miss is undeniable, racking up over a 13K per 9IP ratio as a 19-20 yr old crossing 3 levels. My bet is the Yanks would rather avoid anointing him unless he’s just dominant through ST.

 

10. Clarke Schmidt, Luis Cessa, and others.

 

Schmidt is a hell of a prospect, but barely reached AA last year and is coming off just 90IP as a max post TJS. He’s going to need more time. Cessa has lights out stuff, but hasn’t translated it into production as a starter. It’s time for him to relieve full time. We’ve got Hale, Bettis and other depth that could stick as well, but won’t be on the roster beyond June.

[Bellhorn04]

Severino gone for season.

German gone for first 2 months.

Paxton gone for a while.

Stanton gone for a while.

Hicks gone for a while.

Judge now questionable for opening day.

 

A rack of injuries like that would spell lost season for most teams, including the Red Sox.

 

But after last season, the Yankees seem like they can overcome such things with relative ease.

[Slasher9]

 

A rack of injuries like that would spell lost season for most teams, including the Red Sox.

 

But after last season, the Yankees seem like they can overcome such things with relative ease.

 

but will they be able to do it this season without the Beltran Method?

[Bellhorn04]

but will they be able to do it this season without the Beltran Method?

 

And will Cole be able to maintain the same spin rate after leaving Houston and their special sticky substances? (Yes, that might be developing as a thing now.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And will Cole be able to maintain the same spin rate after leaving Houston and their special sticky substances? (Yes, that might be developing as a thing now.)

 

We should absolutely expect the Astros' pitching to be next to fall under suspicion. They seemed to have uncanny success with all their reclamation projects: Cole, old Verlander, Morton, Wade freaking Miley...

 

Great coaching, great system, great alchemy... or was it something else???? Morton kept his mojo in Tampa, so it is possible to retain and sustain the secret formula.

Edited February 28, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[mvp 78]

We should absolutely expect the Astros' pitching to be next to fall under suspicion. They seemed to have uncanny success with all their reclamation projects: Cole, old Verlander, Morton, Wade freaking Miley...

 

Great coaching, great system, great alchemy... or was it something else???? Morton kept his mojo in Tampa, so it is possible to retain and sustain the secret formula.

 

Wade Miley? The guy who was better in MIL in 2018 than in HOU in 2019? That guy?

[jacksonianmarch]

but will they be able to do it this season without the Beltran Method?

 

Apparently Cashman asked Beltran about the Astros cheating and he was an iron trap. Refused to say anything. Cameron Maybin spilled the beans in their entirety.

[jacksonianmarch]

Severino gone for season.

German gone for first 2 months.

Paxton gone for a while.

Stanton gone for a while.

Hicks gone for a while.

Judge now questionable for opening day.

 

A rack of injuries like that would spell lost season for most teams, including the Red Sox.

 

But after last season, the Yankees seem like they can overcome such things with relative ease.

 

It's depth my friend. Right now, let's just say Judge and Stanton miss opening day. I still think Judge makes the opening day lineup as this seems more taking it slow than actually needing the rest, but let's just theorize the Yanks don't have both of them for opening day and clearly Hicks wont be available

 

1. Lemahieu 2B

2. Andujar DH

3. Torres SS

4. Sanchez C

5. Voit 1B

6. Tauchman LF

7. Urshela 3B

8. Gardner CF

9. Frazier RF

 

That lineup is still pretty nasty

[mvp 78]

Honestly, Urshela could totally tank this year. Voit came back to earth last year. Aside from last year, DJ only had one other season above 100 OPS+. Frazier and Gardner are both on the back 9. I think a lineup without Stanton and Judge could go south really quick.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bullpen

 

1. Aroldis Chapman- one of the best closers in baseball continued to be dominant last season. He dropped his velo down to 98.4mph on average and actually started pitching more, throwing his slider 1/3 of the time. This allowed him to drop his walk totals almost 1.3 per 9IP, but it did lead to more contact with a 13K/9IP, down from an absurd 16 per 9 rate in 2018. He is still likely the best, most consistent closer in baseball and has been for awhile now. Other guys pop up but haven't had his longevity. Barring injury, he should have another big year

 

2. Zach Britton- peripherals have never loved Britton, but last year he continued to chug along. He is a high walk reliever (nearly a walk every 2 innings) and for a power reliever, he isn't a big K guys (in the 7-8K/9IP range), but he is a groundball artist, and typically not a hard GB guy either. Zach hit his career high with a 77% GB rate last year, which is entirely unheard of. That allowed his HR rate to stay miniscule and once again allowed his ERA to significantly outperform his peripherals, something he has done every year since becoming a reliever. He remains an elite setup man capable of walking then GIDP'ing his way out of trouble on a nightly basis.

 

3. Adam Ottavino- Ottavino was the victim of overutilization last year and it showed in the post season. He also lost his nerve a bit after the Springer HR turned around the series in game 2. But that may have all been due to cheating, so there is that. Ottavino for a second year in a row and 3rd year in 4 was a dominant reliever. He once again maintained solid velocity with incredible movement and a lights out slider. K rate's through the roof, walk rates too high as well, and until the post season, almost impossible to homer off of. He is set to return to his role, and if the pen can stay healthy, maybe allow for less appearances. Last year was the second year in a row that he threw in 70+ games

 

4. Chad Green- Green has been a dominant swiss army knife for 3 years now, outside of a 5 week stretch in 2019 where he lost velocity and got pounded. He allowed 17ER in 14.1IP to start the year. A demotion to AAA and a mechanical adjustment really helped as he had a sparkling 2.30 ERA from there. He is still a fastball heavy reliever capable of running it up there, averaging 96 and able to top out at 99. Green had been a HR avoiding pitcher in 2017, but his rate crept above 1 per 9IP in 2018. After May last year, his HR rate was 0.6/9IP, so he can still avoid the long ball and strike out a ton of batters. He is the first of the back end guys as well who can limit walks.

 

5. Tommy Kahnle- Kahnle is the final hammer at the end of the pen coming in with high 90s heat and a bugs bunny changeup. After an injury filled 2018, he returned to being a reliable member of the pen in 2019, pitching in 72 games. His K rate was over 12, his walk rate under 3. His issue is the homerun. As a fastball, changeup guy, if he leaves a changeup up in the zone, it gets hit a long way. He is the least reliable of the back end 5, but that doesn't mean he isn't useful.

 

6. Jonathan Holder- Holder had a really solid 2019, but fell apart in 2020 mostly due to a shoulder issue. If he can regain his velocity and command, he could be a useful middle reliever. Holder's arsenal isn't typical for a back end pen guy. He is mostly 93 with his fastball, but has the rare 3 pitch mix for a reliever capable of locating. Because of the arsenal, it limits his upside to a max of a setup man, but they won't give up on him so soon after a productive 2018.

 

7. Ben Heller- acquired for Andrew Miller, Heller had TJS at the end of 2018. He returned at the end of last year showing his standard mix of good fastball and dynamite slider. His velocity wasn't all the way back at the end of last year, but if he can return to his 95mph average heat, he could be a sleeper to deepen the dynamite end of the pen.

 

8. Luis Cessa- a failed SP prospect (like Green), Cessa didn't have the type of season he was expected to as a full time reliever. Part of that could be attributed to his being used as a bulk guy and a multi inning reliever. He has a high octane FB capable of reaching 100mph and a nasty slider, that he relies upon more than his fastball, but he is incredibly homer prone. He allowed 1.5HR/9IP and that just doesn't fly to be anything more than a mopup guy. I wonder if Boone utilized him less as a multi inning reliever and more as a 1 inning guy if he would be better off. This is a big year for him. With good prospects breathing down his neck, Cessa has to start securing a spot before he ends up dealt off

 

9. There are plenty more guys coming down the pipe, but these are the 8 guys who will be in contention for the pen. With the SP's down, if Boone doesn't like any of the big league depth or MiLB depth in the rotation, he could carry all 8 of these guys plus Loaisiga and only roll out of ST with 4 starters.

[jacksonianmarch]

Honestly, Urshela could totally tank this year. Voit came back to earth last year. Aside from last year, DJ only had one other season above 100 OPS+. Frazier and Gardner are both on the back 9. I think a lineup without Stanton and Judge could go south really quick.

 

Urshela absolutely could tank. But you're wrong on Voit. He came back down to earth after he got hurt. He got hurt in London and tried to play through a sports hernia, gutting his production. Prior to that, he was a pretty dominant and all star level 1b. Frazier is 25 years old, how is that the back 9?

[mvp 78]

Urshela absolutely could tank. But you're wrong on Voit. He came back down to earth after he got hurt. He got hurt in London and tried to play through a sports hernia, gutting his production. Prior to that, he was a pretty dominant and all star level 1b. Frazier is 25 years old, how is that the back 9?

 

I was thinking Todd Frazier. My bad.

[mvp 78]

I forgot the Yankees would even want to start Clint FrAAAAzier.

 

I guess a 0.1 fWAR is kinda nasty.

[Slasher9]

And will Cole be able to maintain the same spin rate after leaving Houston and their special sticky substances? (Yes, that might be developing as a thing now.)

 

yup.

his past week, Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer renewed his previous allegations that Houston was one of the teams leading the way with an undetectable substance that helped pitchers maximize their spin rates. In an article for The Players’ Tribune, Bauer wrote, “When I see a guy go from being a good pitcher for one team and spinning the ball at 2,200 rpm, to spinning the ball at 2,600 or 2,700 in Houston, I know exactly what happened.”

[Bellhorn04]

yup.

his past week, Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer renewed his previous allegations that Houston was one of the teams leading the way with an undetectable substance that helped pitchers maximize their spin rates. In an article for The Players’ Tribune, Bauer wrote, “When I see a guy go from being a good pitcher for one team and spinning the ball at 2,200 rpm, to spinning the ball at 2,600 or 2,700 in Houston, I know exactly what happened.”

 

And Cole's numbers improved dramatically when he went from Pitt to Houston.

 

Another interesting subplot to follow this season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wade Miley? The guy who was better in MIL in 2018 than in HOU in 2019? That guy?

 

No, the Wade Miley who pitched in twice as many games, started twice as many games, threw twice as many innings and won 9 more games in '19 than he did in '18. He was solid and productive for five straight months before suddenly breaking down in Sept. and getting left off the postseason roster (leading to speculation he was injured). Some Red Sox fans found Miley's consistency from March through August a bit surprising compared to his one mediocre season in Boston five years ago.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lol, when Cole’s eating your lunch this year, I’ll remind you of this nonsense

[Bellhorn04]

Lol, when Cole’s eating your lunch this year, I’ll remind you of this nonsense

 

Just trying to torment you a bit, Jax. You'd do the same for us.

[Kimmi]

Lol, when Cole’s eating your lunch this year, I’ll remind you of this nonsense

 

Prediction: Cole's contract will quickly become another albatross.

 

He might eat our lunch for 2-3 years, depending on how true the 'invisible substance' rumors are, but we're looking at possibly 6 years of heavy money.

[jacksonianmarch]

Prediction: Cole's contract will quickly become another albatross.

 

He might eat our lunch for 2-3 years, depending on how true the 'invisible substance' rumors are, but we're looking at possibly 6 years of heavy money.

 

It clearly has the potential to be an albatross. My hope is that the new CBA opens up the market a bit and Cole is just lights out for 5 years and he opts out without the yanks chasing him

[jacksonianmarch]

Just trying to torment you a bit, Jax. You'd do the same for us.

 

I’m fully aware my friend. These are the responses I got when chiding Sale. I wouldn’t have it any other way

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Lol, when Cole’s eating your lunch this year, I’ll remind you of this nonsense

 

I know, Cole has just dominated Boston the last three years: 1-2 record, including a bad playoff loss.

[notin]

It clearly has the potential to be an albatross. My hope is that the new CBA opens up the market a bit and Cole is just lights out for 5 years and he opts out without the yanks chasing him

 

Yeah. Not likely.

 

He's a future albatross. Just hope he takes longer than Stanton to become one...

[jacksonianmarch]

It was a year ago right now that everyone was loving Stanton’s contract. One year does not a bust make

[Bellhorn04]

It was a year ago right now that everyone was loving Stanton’s contract. One year does not a bust make

 

I will say that baseball fans seem to have less patience and more pessimism all the time.

[Kimmi]

It was a year ago right now that everyone was loving Stanton’s contract. One year does not a bust make

 

I have never loved or even like Stanton's contract.

 

Ten year contracts are just not a good idea. Period.

[jacksonianmarch]

BTW, Judge sent back to NY. He has a pec tendon strain. Zero point in pushing this.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BTW, Judge sent back to NY. He has a pec tendon strain. Zero point in pushing this.

 

If the Red Sox had extended Betts I could say something about Stanton and Judge and muscle man longevity compared to that shrimp Mookie... but Boston is doomed in '20, while the Yanks will still be good (though maybe they'll both have their hands full with the upstart Blue Jays). It's a sad season for Sox fans when their biggest hope for the postseason is that NY draws anyone else but the Twins...