How Much is the Most You'd Pay Mookie?

[notin]

Manny's contract was one of the big exceptions, no question.

 

The contract given to Manny Ramirez and ARod were very rare in that both players were actually very good for the duration of the deals. Both were also very young at the time of signing them.

 

Mookie might be incredible for the next 12 years. He also might not. But even if he is, will the Sox be able to make a good team around him? I'd rather watch a competitive team than a cellar dweller lead by the last days of a Hall of Famer...

[S5Dewey]

The contract given to Manny Ramirez and ARod were very rare in that both players were actually very good for the duration of the deals. Both were also very young at the time of signing them.

 

Mookie might be incredible for the next 12 years. He also might not. But even if he is, will the Sox be able to make a good team around him? I'd rather watch a competitive team than a cellar dweller lead by the last days of a Hall of Famer...

 

Like the Angels, you mean?

 

While the Angels aren't cellar-dwellers it has to be frustrating for their fans (and for Trout too) to be rooting/playing for a team that doesn't even come close to winning big when they have ostensibly the best player in baseball.

[notin]

Was

"All I want to see is one Red Sox WS title before I die."

 

Is

"Please don't sign the greatest modern day Red Sox player to a long contract that I won't outlive."

 

I'd say the chances of Mookie being traded this offseason are getting lower by the day. To me, signing Mitch Moreland would kill any interest (which was microscopic on my part) I ever had in taking the bulk of the contract of Wil Myers (whose name I just realized rhymes with one of the characters in Stranger Things).

 

Bloom has an understandably high asking price, and no one is going to meet it, which is a good thing for the 2020 Red Sox. But then what? Resetting by dealing Price or Eovaldi or both is not likely. Will failing to reset get in the way of the Sox signing Betts? The new CBA is not likely to be finalized before Betts signs anywhere, so that is potentially not a factor...

[a700hitter]

I'd say the chances of Mookie being traded this offseason are getting lower by the day. To me, signing Mitch Moreland would kill any interest (which was microscopic on my part) I ever had in taking the bulk of the contract of Wil Myers (whose name I just realized rhymes with one of the characters in Stranger Things).

 

Bloom has an understandably high asking price, and no one is going to meet it, which is a good thing for the 2020 Red Sox. But then what? Resetting by dealing Price or Eovaldi or both is not likely. Will failing to reset get in the way of the Sox signing Betts? The new CBA is not likely to be finalized before Betts signs anywhere, so that is potentially not a factor...

Good point, signing Moreland eliminates a spot for Myers.

[notin]

Like the Angels, you mean?

 

While the Angels aren't cellar-dwellers it has to be frustrating for their fans (and for Trout too) to be rooting/playing for a team that doesn't even come close to winning big when they have ostensibly the best player in baseball.

 

A good example.

 

Since Trout's breakout season in 2012, the team has simply not been competitive most of the time. They won the division in 2013 and finished 3 games out in 2014 while missing the post season by one game. But in last 4 seasons, they have finished an average of 25 games back.

 

But, hey, they did retain a future Hall of Famer....

[mvp 78]

Manny's contract was one of the big exceptions, no question.

 

IMO, Mookie is an exception too.

[mvp 78]

Oh please. That Canadian health care will keep you propped up past the century mark...

 

God willing!

[mvp 78]

I'd say the chances of Mookie being traded this offseason are getting lower by the day. To me, signing Mitch Moreland would kill any interest (which was microscopic on my part) I ever had in taking the bulk of the contract of Wil Myers (whose name I just realized rhymes with one of the characters in Stranger Things).

 

Bloom has an understandably high asking price, and no one is going to meet it, which is a good thing for the 2020 Red Sox. But then what? Resetting by dealing Price or Eovaldi or both is not likely. Will failing to reset get in the way of the Sox signing Betts? The new CBA is not likely to be finalized before Betts signs anywhere, so that is potentially not a factor...

 

Reset some other time then? The Sox need Mookie more than they need to get under the tax.

[notin]

IMO, Mookie is an exception too.

 

Exactly how far into the future does your crystal ball read? We really don't know if he is going to remain healthy, and Bellhorn makes a valid point about the risk over 10-12 years.

 

Albert Pujols looked like a good bet to not completely fall off the planet by age 33, yet there he is, a shadow of himself as a former player for the past 7 years, with 2 years and potentially $159 million (not a typo) remaining on that contract...

[notin]

Reset some other time then? The Sox need Mookie more than they need to get under the tax.

 

Yes and no.

 

I don't care how many years Henry shells out the tax money, which is typically less than they pay Rusney Castillo to stay out of MLB. But at some point, the draft penalties and IFA spending becomes an issue keeping a competitive team around Mookie...

[mvp 78]

A good example.

 

Since Trout's breakout season in 2012, the team has simply not been competitive most of the time. They won the division in 2013 and finished 3 games out in 2014 while missing the post season by one game. But in last 4 seasons, they have finished an average of 25 games back.

 

But, hey, they did retain a future Hall of Famer....

 

Not sure that's Trout's fault.

 

Here's Trout's salary by year:

 

2014 1M

2015 5M

2016 15M

2017 19M

 

I can't believe Trout put the owners in the poor house like that! Over those 4 years, he provided $250M in value to the Angels. Yup, definitely Trout's fault!

[mvp 78]

Exactly how far into the future does your crystal ball read? We really don't know if he is going to remain healthy, and Bellhorn makes a valid point about the risk over 10-12 years.

 

Albert Pujols looked like a good bet to not completely fall off the planet by age 33, yet there he is, a shadow of himself as a former player for the past 7 years, with 2 years and potentially $159 million (not a typo) remaining on that contract...

 

If Pujols was given a 12 year deal at the same age Mookie is requesting it, he would already be retired by now. Pujols also provides next to nothing with the glove. Betts will give a decent amount of value defensively even if his offense in his late 30's turns to Pujols levels.

[Jack Flap]

Something like 10/365 gives him the highest AAV ever and second-largest contract after Trout. It's also just over halfway between his reported $420M ask and the $300M the Sox offered. Add in vesting options for a potential 11th and 12th year that will be attainable if he doesn't fall off a cliff before then.

[notin]

Not sure that's Trout's fault.

 

Here's Trout's salary by year:

 

2014 1M

2015 5M

2016 15M

2017 19M

 

I can't believe Trout put the owners in the poor house like that! Over those 4 years, he provided $250M in value to the Angels. Yup, definitely Trout's fault!

 

Well, during the stretch they finished an average of 25 games back, 2016-2019, Trout has made $16mill, $20mill, $34mill, and $38mill. (Our sources have slightly different numbers apparently. No fault to either of us.) With Trout making that kind of money, the Angels were a combined 100 games out of first place over 4 seasons.

 

Trout will make about $37.2 mill per year over the next ELEVEN seasons. Will they be able to build a better team around him while paying him that much and maintaining whatever their budget is? And at what point in those ELEVEN seasons will he stop performing at his current elite level? His money won't change, but his performance defintely will.

[mvp 78]

Well, during the stretch they finished an average of 25 games back, 2016-2019, Trout has made $16mill, $20mill, $34mill, and $38mill. (Our sources have slightly different numbers apparently. No fault to either of us.) With Trout making that kind of money, the Angels were a combined 100 games out of first place over 4 seasons.

 

Trout will make about $37.2 mill per year over the next ELEVEN seasons. Will they be able to build a better team around him while paying him that much and maintaining whatever their budget is? And at what point in those ELEVEN seasons will he stop performing at his current elite level?

 

Maybe the bigger issue is Pujols' contract and not Trout? Maybe having one big monster deal is easy enough to work around, but having 2 is another matter?

[Slasher9]

mookie is 5'9" / 170 pounds. his fast twitch / speed will not carry well into his mid 30's unless we can turn back the clock to pre 2004.

[mvp 78]

mookie is 5'9" / 170 pounds. his fast twitch / speed will not carry well into his mid 30's unless we can turn back the clock to pre 2004.

 

I'm really trying not to roll my eyes at this one.

[moonslav59]

mookie is 5'9" / 170 pounds. his fast twitch / speed will not carry well into his mid 30's unless we can turn back the clock to pre 2004.

 

Is there any evidence on twitch reflexes and age?

[harmony]

I'm really trying not to roll my eyes at this one.

I'll roll my eyes for you.

[notin]

If Pujols was given a 12 year deal at the same age Mookie is requesting it, he would already be retired by now. Pujols also provides next to nothing with the glove. Betts will give a decent amount of value defensively even if his offense in his late 30's turns to Pujols levels.

 

Possible.

 

Also possible Mookie does not retain his defensive value. We like to think defense is a perfectly repeatable skillset from year to year, but players have bad years defensively just like they have bad years offensively. Not to mention, the defensive metrics we use to quantify some of the defensive values are largely comparative. Will Mookie fare as well as other younger, defensively gifted right fielders come up? Will his presence prevent the Sox from ever upgrading that position defensively?

 

I don't think bringing Mookie back is a bad idea at all, even with what will defintely be an outrageous contract. But I also don't think it's the slam dunk you appear to think it is. It's a risky move that could just as easily backfire as succeed. And if it backfires, the ramifications can be much, much worse than we like to think about (from a baseball fan viewpoint. I have to maintain some perspective here.)

[Slasher9]

I'm really trying not to roll my eyes at this one.

 

feel free. do you feel mookies game and WAR stats are greatly increased by the speed/quickness he possesses? or do you think his game is built on strength and power? one of those combinations usually lasts much longer then the other. also hand eye coordination is diminished bigly as you age. there is a reason the greatest over 34yo player to ever play baseball in the history of baseball playing was playing during pre 2004 rules......

[notin]

feel free. do you feel mookies game and WAR stats are greatly increased by the speed/quickness he possesses? or do you think his game is built on strength and power? one of those combinations usually lasts much longer then the other. also hand eye coordination is diminished bigly as you age. there is a reason the greatest over 34yo player to ever play baseball in the history of baseball playing was playing during pre 2004 rules......

 

Barry Bonds?

[mvp 78]

feel free. do you feel mookies game and WAR stats are greatly increased by the speed/quickness he possesses? or do you think his game is built on strength and power? one of those combinations usually lasts much longer then the other. also hand eye coordination is diminished bigly as you age. there is a reason the greatest over 34yo player to ever play baseball in the history of baseball playing was playing during pre 2004 rules......

 

But I never expected him to stay at MVP levels from age 34 - 40. This "bigly" drop is really hard to determine. How much of a drop are you expecting? Is he going to crater, or just be a solid MLB starter? It's impossible to say for sure.

[mvp 78]

I'll roll my eyes for you.

 

Creepy.

[mvp 78]

Possible.

 

Also possible Mookie does not retain his defensive value. We like to think defense is a perfectly repeatable skillset from year to year, but players have bad years defensively just like they have bad years offensively. Not to mention, the defensive metrics we use to quantify some of the defensive values are largely comparative. Will Mookie fare as well as other younger, defensively gifted right fielders come up? Will his presence prevent the Sox from ever upgrading that position defensively?

 

I don't think bringing Mookie back is a bad idea at all, even with what will defintely be an outrageous contract. But I also don't think it's the slam dunk you appear to think it is. It's a risky move that could just as easily backfire as succeed. And if it backfires, the ramifications can be much, much worse than we like to think about (from a baseball fan viewpoint. I have to maintain some perspective here.)

 

Everything is risky. It's not 100% to be a slamdunk. I just believe the likelihood of it working out is better than for other big contracts.

[Slasher9]

Is there any evidence on twitch reflexes and age?

 

my evidence: when i was 35 i could not run as fast as when i was 25

35 coincidentally was when i quit playing competitive mens league hockey

[notin]

Everything is risky. It's not 100% to be a slamdunk. I just believe the likelihood of it working out is better than for other big contracts.

 

OK, but I would argue that most of them become an issue at some point. The only two I think were worthwhile were Manny and ARod (the Texas one). And even Manny was a sub 3 fWAR player the last half of his deal. So "working out better" might be a massive gray area.

 

Mookie will be entering his age 28 season if he goes to free agency. That makes him slightly younger than Ramirez (29) and older than ARod (25) for their contracts. I don't think anyone doubts what Mookie will be worth the first 4 or 5 eyars of a new deal, but it's the part of it from that point on that becomes a big risk. and what impact will that have on the club? Will they be able to afford other players? Will his deal get in the way of extending Devers? Will the luxury tax penalties on draft pickcompensation leave the farm in even worse shape so no minimum wage players can fill a few gaps acceptably? I get that there is a lot here.

 

But on the bright side, I think even in the unlikely event that the Sox trade Betts in the next 10 weeks, they will be bidders for his services come December regardless...

[Slasher9]

But I never expected him to stay at MVP levels from age 34 - 40. This "bigly" drop is really hard to determine. How much of a drop are you expecting? Is he going to crater, or just be a solid MLB starter? It's impossible to say for sure.

 

to use WAR i would expect him to go from a 7 WAR player years1-5 of the contract to a 3 WAR player the years 6-8 and a 1-2 WAR player the final 2-4 years (dependent on 10 or 12 year contract)

i dont know if that qualifies as "crater" but i would expect the contract to be an overpay from year 6 on.....

NOTE: i am for reseting LT in 2020 in order to give Betts the obscene contract he is looking for.

[notin]

my evidence: when i was 35 i could not run as fast as when i was 25

35 coincidentally was when i quit playing competitive mens league hockey

 

And that is probably a big factor in why your men's league hockey team didn't sign you to a 12 year $400mill contract..

[Slasher9]

And that is probably a big factor in why your men's league hockey team didn't sign you to a 12 year $400mill contract..

 

right? i had it so backwards i was paying to play!

my speed had fallen off so much that it was like i was skating in mud compared to the 20 year olds on the ice and my shifts got shorter and shorter.....