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Posted
But they do factor in salary and future performance experience projections, which is all that site really does.

 

The biggest flaw in that site is that’s all it does. But there is no programming logic in existence to account for a GMs desire to acquire or deal a certain player...

Precisely! Moreover there are non quantitative reasons for teams to either move a player or acquire one.

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Posted
That happens all the time there.

 

Any real life trade gets posted. Many don’t work out with their numbers and requiring “fudging” by adding money. A lot of them that don’t work out are actually pretty close.

 

Sometimes the values they use just are not realistic. But sometimes GMs make stupid deals, which isn’t really their fault. If the website existed at the time, I’m 100000% positive it would have never accepted that Shelby Miller-Dansby Swanson trade. But that wouldn’t be a flaw. The whole world knew that was a bad trade except one guy. Unfortunately for Diamondback fans, that one guy was their GM at the time (Dave Stewart, I believe.)

 

Here's an example I just mentioned. The simulator did not accept Price, Chavis & JBJ for Myers and Margot, but my guess is if any GM would say no to that trade it would be SD's not Bloom. If I added Quantrill to the deal, it accepted it as a minor overpay- by the SOX! I'm pretty sure SD would say NO!

 

The site has serious flaws, but I like it anyways as a way to explore frameworks for trades.

 

I wonder how often they adjust their rating numbers?

Posted
Precisely! Moreover there are non quantitative reasons for teams to either move a player or acquire one.

 

Yes, namely the money situations is a big factor.

Posted
Here's an example I just mentioned. The simulator did not accept Price, Chavis & JBJ for Myers and Margot, but my guess is if any GM would say no to that trade it would be SD's not Bloom. If I added Quantrill to the deal, it accepted it as a minor overpay- by the SOX! I'm pretty sure SD would say NO!

 

The site has serious flaws, but I like it anyways as a way to explore frameworks for trades.

 

I wonder how often they adjust their rating numbers?

 

The site is less than a year old, but they do seem to make lots of adjustments. They also accept feedback from fans on some player values right through the message boards

Posted (edited)
You’re off by over a year. These guys won’t have a remote chance to be up until late 2021.

 

Have you even gone to Thad’s games ? Have you watched either player ? I have and Thad is the best pitcher I’ve seen come through besides John and Clay his slider is absolutely ready NOW and his heater is disgusting he needs to harnessi it though .Thad Ward is our next great pitcher .Casas is Raw but make no mistake he’s a starter either for us or another team by mid 21.Neither player I have ANY doubt about contributing by mid 21 .

Edited by Swiharts Ghost
Posted
Precisely! Moreover there are non quantitative reasons for teams to either move a player or acquire one.

 

Yes but that is true for all trade speculation done by non-GMs.

 

All that site does is say a trade is fair based on the projections they use. Perfect or not, the framework for trades on that site are still better than 99.999999999999% of trades fans dream up on the kajillion baseball-themed boards on the Internet. Not sure why so many like to say “BUT ITS NOT PERFECT!” as some sort of criticism. Exactly what is?

Posted
Have you even gone to Thad’s games ? Have you watched either player ? I have and Thad is the best pitcher I’ve seen come through besides John and Clay his slider is absolutely ready NOW and his heater is disgusting he’s harnessing it though .Thad Ward is our next great pitcher .Casas is Raw but make no mistake he’s a starter either for us or another team by mid 21.Neither player I have ANY doubt about contributing by mid 21 .

 

We’re talking about 2 players with a combined 14 games in High A ball as the highest level they’ve reached. 2021 might be wishful thinking. Slow down, Casas was in high school 3 years ago.

 

Brian Mata and Bobby Dalbec are more important to the immediate future.

Posted

I like Ward a lot, but we will not rush him. We shouldn't either.

 

To me, the most likely AAA players to help us in 2020 are:

 

Dalbec

Houck

Chatham

Shawaryn

 

Mata, Ward, Duran & Feltman are expected to begin in AA. I supposeone could be a September call-up, but we are more likely to give some AAA players a look before them.

 

We also have rule 5 guy Jonathan Arauz and Lin. Guys like Travis, Marco & Johnson might be re-added to the 40 man roster, if they are doing well and a specific need arises. There's also Kyle Hart, Denyi Reyes, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Osich, Mazza, Weber and others who could be ahead of those AA guys.

Posted
Yes but that is true for all trade speculation done by non-GMs.

 

All that site does is say a trade is fair based on the projections they use. Perfect or not, the framework for trades on that site are still better than 99.999999999999% of trades fans dream up on the kajillion baseball-themed boards on the Internet. Not sure why so many like to say “BUT ITS NOT PERFECT!” as some sort of criticism. Exactly what is?

 

My.point is that trades happen for a whole host of reasons many of which are not quantafiable. Clubhouse chemistry and player attitude being two of the more common reasons.

Posted
I like Ward a lot, but we will not rush him. We shouldn't either.

 

To me, the most likely AAA players to help us in 2020 are:

 

Dalbec

Houck

Chatham

Shawaryn

 

Mata, Ward, Duran & Feltman are expected to begin in AA. I supposeone could be a September call-up, but we are more likely to give some AAA players a look before them.

 

We also have rule 5 guy Jonathan Arauz and Lin. Guys like Travis, Marco & Johnson might be re-added to the 40 man roster, if they are doing well and a specific need arises. There's also Kyle Hart, Denyi Reyes, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Osich, Mazza, Weber and others who could be ahead of those AA guys.

 

I saw Houck in Pawtucket and definitely think his stuff can get outs in the majors. Shawaryn, I dunno if he can miss bats; he had a higher ERA than Nunez!

Posted
My.point is that trades happen for a whole host of reasons many of which are not quantafiable. Clubhouse chemistry and player attitude being two of the more common reasons.

 

Everybody gets that. That doesn’t make it useless.

Posted (edited)
We’re talking about 2 players with a combined 14 games in High A ball as the highest level they’ve reached. 2021 might be wishful thinking. Slow down, Casas was in high school 3 years ago.

 

Brian Mata and Bobby Dalbec are more important to the immediate future.

Notin I knew after 1 inning Thad had what it took 1 freaking inning ....I watched him several more times and I’m telling you we have a number 2 starter in the making .He must harness the FB he does have incredible late life on it Now and his slider is amazing .Thad Freaking Ward is our future .Casas hits everything hard his swing to me is money some say it’s long I don’t see it his lower half is powerful and he has a small leg lift that I like to generate power his hips are thick and they are powerful love the swing path it will play well at the next level Both these players are real and you absolutely should be pumped up big time that we have them

Edited by Swiharts Ghost
Posted
Everybody gets that. That doesn’t make it useless.

 

It is only useful during a cold hot stove season when there is absolutely nothing else to post about.

 

All teams have their own proprietary software. So such public sites at best only approximate the algorithms that teams use to compliment the other non quantitative data that GMs consider when making trades. This was the point of an entire program on the MLB network.

Posted
Notin I knew after 1 inning Thad had what it took 1 freaking inning ....I watched him several more times and I’m telling you we have a number 2 starter in the making .He must harness the FB he does have incredible late life on it Now and his slider is amazing .Thad Freaking Ward is our future .Casas hits everything hard his swing to me is money some say it’s long I don’t see it his lower half is powerful and he has a small leg lift that I like to generate power his hips are thick and they are powerful love the swing path it will play well at the next level Both these players are real and you absolutely should be pumped up big time that we have them

 

I don't think anyone doubts he "has the stuff:" it's about being ready or helpful for 2020.

Posted (edited)
It is only useful during a cold hot stove season when there is absolutely nothing else to post about.

 

All teams have their own proprietary software. So such public sites at best only approximate the algorithms that teams use to compliment the other non quantitative data that GMs consider when making trades. This was the point of an entire program on the MLB network.

 

So your point is they don’t use that one site but they all use similar concepts? What was your point again? About trading with each other?

 

And none of us have chess to their databases.

 

But just because teams don’t use it doesn’t mean it doesn’t give fair approximations. If you’re expecting perfection, trades happen all the time that have no rumor mention beforehand on MLBTR. Or on MLB network. And how many Ian Brown Fair Trade Speculative Columns actually contain a trade that happened?

 

Really though the simulator does a decent job approximating analog and variable values far better than any of us could, and probably better than most BBWAA members...

Edited by notin
Posted
Notin I knew after 1 inning Thad had what it took 1 freaking inning ....I watched him several more times and I’m telling you we have a number 2 starter in the making .He must harness the FB he does have incredible late life on it Now and his slider is amazing .Thad Freaking Ward is our future .Casas hits everything hard his swing to me is money some say it’s long I don’t see it his lower half is powerful and he has a small leg lift that I like to generate power his hips are thick and they are powerful love the swing path it will play well at the next level Both these players are real and you absolutely should be pumped up big time that we have them

 

None of this changes the FACT that he hasn’t pitched in AA ball yet...

Posted
So your point is they don’t use that one site but they all use similar concepts? What was your point again? About trading with each other?

 

And none of us have chess to their databases.

 

But just because teams don’t use it doesn’t mean it doesn’t give fair approximations. If you’re expecting perfection, trades happen all the time that have no rumor mention beforehand on MLBTR. Or on MLB network. And how many Ian Brown Fair Trade Speculative Columns actually contain a trade that happened?

 

Really though the simulator does a decent job approximating analog and variable values far better than any of us could, and probably better than most BBWAA members...

 

Play strat o matic it is just as useful in replicating reality. I will take the BBWAA anytime over what I read on baseball boards.

Posted
Play strat o matic it is just as useful in replicating reality. I will take the BBWAA anytime over what I read on baseball boards.

 

Stray O Matic is for posers!! All Star Baseball is where it’s at. If you remember that game with the spinners.

 

BBWAA writers are obviously more informed than us, but sometimes I think they write things hoping for clickbait...

Posted
Stray O Matic is for posers!! All Star Baseball is where it’s at. If you remember that game with the spinners.

 

BBWAA writers are obviously more informed than us, but sometimes I think they write things hoping for clickbait...

 

I do not play either. I was just making the point that concocting trade scenarios on web sites is as useful as playing stratomatic or all star baseball. It is to baseball what solataire is to card games.

Posted
I do not play either. I was just making the point that concocting trade scenarios on web sites is as useful as playing stratomatic or all star baseball. It is to baseball what solataire is to card games.

 

Nothing that happens on a baseball forum is useful, it's just entertainment.

Posted
Stray O Matic is for posers!! All Star Baseball is where it’s at. If you remember that game with the spinners.

 

BBWAA writers are obviously more informed than us, but sometimes I think they write things hoping for clickbait...

 

Nothing that happens on a baseball forum is useful, it's just entertainment.

And it would be more entertaining if Bloom were to actually do something. Has he even given a press interview?

Posted
And it would be more entertaining if Bloom were to actually do something.

 

His hands appear to be truly tied at the moment. Henry et al may have decided not to worry about re-setting, but they obviously don't want to spend money this offseason either.

 

Plus we have little in the way of prospects to trade.

Posted
Stray O Matic is for posers!! All Star Baseball is where it’s at. If you remember that game with the spinners.

 

BBWAA writers are obviously more informed than us, but sometimes I think they write things hoping for clickbait...

 

His hands appear to be truly tied at the moment. Henry et al may have decided not to worry about re-setting, but they obviously don't want to spend money this offseason either.

 

Plus we have little in the way of prospects to trade.

 

I think you are correct but Bloom needs to feed the beast. Some kind of interview would be helpful in my view.

Posted
I think you are correct but Bloom needs to feed the beast. Some kind of interview would be helpful in my view.

 

What would you expect him to say?

Posted
What would you expect him to say?

 

Give an overview of what he is trying to accomplish. Henry's email to Shaughnessy was an effort to give the red sox some exposure in the media. This prolonged absence isn't helpful to the Red Sox brand. That is just one major difference between Boston and Tampa. The FO needs to feed the beast. The beast in this case is the sports media.

Posted
Give an overview of what he is trying to accomplish. Henry's email to Shaughnessy was an effort to give the red sox some exposure in the media. This prolonged absence isn't helpful to the Red Sox brand. That is just one major difference between Boston and Tampa. The FO needs to feed the beast. The beast in this case is the sports media.

 

Sometimes when you feed the Boston sports media beast, the beast eats you.

Posted
I don't think anyone doubts he "has the stuff:" it's about being ready or helpful for 2020.

 

He has nooooo shot except maybe September but mid 21 yes I think he gets his shot .

Posted
Stray O Matic is for posers!! All Star Baseball is where it’s at. If you remember that game with the spinners.

 

BBWAA writers are obviously more informed than us, but sometimes I think they write things hoping for clickbait...

 

Sometimes when you feed the Boston sports media beast, the beast eats you.

 

If you do not feed the beast then it will definitely eat you.

Posted

our depth was obliterated by DD. some of us are living with it as it did result in a parade.

although perhaps DD should not get that credit and instead it should go to WTF's "gamesmanship" with runners on 2nd??

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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