Playing Red Sox GM: salary dump time!

[moonslav59]

Like all of us, i would love to see Mookie stay in Boston forever but a ten year 300 million dollar contract I'm not sure makes any sense. How have the teams made out who have offered these huge sums of money to one player? We are all replaceable.

 

I did a complete study a while back, and a clear majorty ended up being bad deals for the team- many were horrible, some like Manny worked great but still ended badly.

 

I realize the risk. I just think Betts has so many skills, and his unique "twitch skills" makes him very special. There's no "history" to compare him to, I mean someone was comparing him to Tim Raines and Pudge Rodriguez, just because he's kind of small. Come on! Betts is not Raines or Pudge.

 

Maybe his defense will decline due to slowly losing his speed, but he has tremendous instincts and a strong arm. In Fenway Park, that is and always will be a huge plus. His value will not be greatly diminished by reduced SBs. One can imagine his power increasing as many players do, once they reach the 29-34 years.

 

He also brings fans to the park and TV. He sells jerseys. He may not be worth $30M his last 2-4 years of a 10-12 year deal, but he may very well be worth over $50M for the next 2-5 years.

 

I realize I may eat my words, and things could go horrible wrong, but to me, Mookie is who makes the Sox the Sox.

 

[notin]

I meant Price and or Eovaldi-- addition by subtraction.

 

And have ERod pitch 3 games of every 5?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I did a complete study a while back, and a clear majorty ended up being bad deals for the team- many were horrible, some like Manny worked great but still ended badly.

 

I realize the risk. I just think Betts has so many skills, and his unique "twitch skills" makes him very special. There's no "history" to compare him to, I mean someone was comparing him to Tim Raines and Pudge Rodriguez, just because he's kind of small. Come on! Betts is not Raines or Pudge.

 

Maybe his defense will decline due to slowly losing his speed, but he has tremendous instincts and a strong arm. In Fenway Park, that is and always will be a huge plus. His value will not be greatly diminished by reduced SBs. One can imagine his power increasing as many players do, once they reach the 29-34 years.

 

He also brings fans to the park and TV. He sells jerseys. He may not be worth $30M his last 2-4 years of a 10-12 year deal, but he may very well be worth over $50M for the next 2-5 years.

 

I realize I may eat my words, and things could go horrible wrong, but to me, Mookie is who makes the Sox the Sox.

 

 

I agree with everything you say -- except I'm the someone who tried to use those "small" guys (all Hall of Famers) to show that Betts will have no problem matching and surpassing their career production. Those comps were to show posters that caution about the longevity risk of ballplayers with similar body types that Betts is already on pace with or better than the best "slight frame" legends in modern history.

 

I sucked at it, but my point was that in this age of testing, we at least know Mookie most likely won't burn out from recreational drugs or do steroids -- as was confirmed/suspected of the two examples you mentioned. Betts comes from good stock, his uncle was a big leaguer and role model who still advises him, his mother is still a prominent influence, and his high school sweetheart and mom of his infant daughter keeps him grounded. One night last fall when other young millionaires were out partying, Mookie was caught feeding the homeless. He was wearing a hoodie, trying not to be noticed.

 

Guys who developed muscle from popular training regimens 15-20 years ago kept breaking down with structural injuries. Nomar, who was skinny in college but suddenly shirtless on the cover of SI, was one of them. Modern big guys are no sure bet to be long-lasting, either. Notice how behemoths like Judge and Stanton are hurt every year? Mookie doesn't have inflated Michelin Man muscles, but he does has Hank Aaron wrists.

 

Those are only some of the reasons that I think Mookie Betts will be one of the few superstars to actually earn his big money contract. For those still stuck on numbers -- and adamantly against 10 for 300 -- I'm also the guy who suggested 6 for 260.

 

That's right, make an offer he can't refuse. And mark this down: Mookie Betts next contract, whether it's with Boston or not, will be the most lucrative in history. Someone will deem his value worthy.

 

And for those posters still stuck on "the tax, the tax, the lost draft picks" that will never equate to another Betts, please remember that this current MLB labor contract runs out after 2121, when everything changes because the players' union will never accept something like that again (and they're already willing to strike about it).

[moonslav59]

And have ERod pitch 3 games of every 5?

 

He may need to anyway with the injury history of these two guys.

 

I'm thinking with the money saved, we let Bloom do his thing and find some gems in the rough.

[notin]

He may need to anyway with the injury history of these two guys.

 

I'm thinking with the money saved, we let Bloom do his thing and find some gems in the rough.

 

 

I was actually hoping to see the ERod thing...

[moonslav59]

I agree with everything you say -- except I'm the someone who tried to use those "small" guys (all Hall of Famers) to show that Betts will have no problem matching and surpassing their career production. Those comps were to show posters that caution about the longevity risk of ballplayers with similar body types that Betts is already on pace with or better than the best "slight frame" legends in modern history.

 

I sucked at it, but my point was that in this age of testing, we at least know Mookie most likely won't burn out from recreational drugs or do steroids -- as was confirmed/suspected of the two examples you mentioned. Betts comes from good stock, his uncle was a big leaguer and role model who still advises him, his mother is still a prominent influence, and his high school sweetheart and mom of his infant daughter keeps him grounded. One night last fall when other young millionaires were out partying, Mookie was caught feeding the homeless. He was wearing a hoodie, trying not to be noticed.

 

Guys who developed muscle from popular training regimens 15-20 years ago kept breaking down with structural injuries. Nomar, who was skinny in college but suddenly shirtless on the cover of SI, was one of them. Modern big guys are no sure bet to be long-lasting, either. Notice how behemoths like Judge and Stanton are hurt every year? Mookie doesn't have inflated Michelin Man muscles, but he does has Hank Aaron wrists.

 

Those are only some of the reasons that I think Mookie Betts will be one of the few superstars to actually earn his big money contract. For those still stuck on numbers -- and adamantly against 10 for 300 -- I'm also the guy who suggested 6 for 260.

 

That's right, make an offer he can't refuse. And mark this down: Mookie Betts next contract, whether it's with Boston or not, will be the most lucrative in history. Someone will deem his value worthy.

 

And for those posters still stuck on "the tax, the tax, the lost draft picks" that will never equate to another Betts, please remember that this current MLB labor contract runs out after 2121, when everything changes because the players' union will never accept something like that again (and they're already willing to strike about it).

 

There might have been better comps to show how skinnier players age poorly, and I didn't mean to imply you were a lunatic or something.

 

If it's just about money, I'm pretty sure, when all is said and done, Betts will have made may more money for Henry than he made for himself.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There might have been better comps to show how skinnier players age poorly, and I didn't mean to imply you were a lunatic or something.

 

If it's just about money, I'm pretty sure, when all is said and done, Betts will have made may more money for Henry than he made for himself.

 

 

Great line. I think my son has already made enough for Henry to pay Betts, judging by the number of Mookie baseball cards, t-shirts and uniform shirts he owns (he's also a walking billboard, having gone door to door for three straight Halloweens now, disguised as Number 50).

[moonslav59]

Great line. I think my son has already made enough for Henry to pay Betts, judging by the number of Mookie baseball cards, t-shirts and uniform shirts he owns (he's also a walking billboard, having gone door to door for three straight Halloweens now, disguised as Number 50).

 

Just do it.

 

Pay the guy.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with everything you say -- except I'm the someone who tried to use those "small" guys (all Hall of Famers) to show that Betts will have no problem matching and surpassing their career production. Those comps were to show posters that caution about the longevity risk of ballplayers with similar body types that Betts is already on pace with or better than the best "slight frame" legends in modern history.

 

I sucked at it, but my point was that in this age of testing, we at least know Mookie most likely won't burn out from recreational drugs or do steroids -- as was confirmed/suspected of the two examples you mentioned. Betts comes from good stock, his uncle was a big leaguer and role model who still advises him, his mother is still a prominent influence, and his high school sweetheart and mom of his infant daughter keeps him grounded. One night last fall when other young millionaires were out partying, Mookie was caught feeding the homeless. He was wearing a hoodie, trying not to be noticed.

 

Guys who developed muscle from popular training regimens 15-20 years ago kept breaking down with structural injuries. Nomar, who was skinny in college but suddenly shirtless on the cover of SI, was one of them. Modern big guys are no sure bet to be long-lasting, either. Notice how behemoths like Judge and Stanton are hurt every year? Mookie doesn't have inflated Michelin Man muscles, but he does has Hank Aaron wrists.

 

Those are only some of the reasons that I think Mookie Betts will be one of the few superstars to actually earn his big money contract. For those still stuck on numbers -- and adamantly against 10 for 300 -- I'm also the guy who suggested 6 for 260.

 

That's right, make an offer he can't refuse. And mark this down: Mookie Betts next contract, whether it's with Boston or not, will be the most lucrative in history. Someone will deem his value worthy.

 

And for those posters still stuck on "the tax, the tax, the lost draft picks" that will never equate to another Betts, please remember that this current MLB labor contract runs out after 2121, when everything changes because the players' union will never accept something like that again (and they're already willing to strike about it).

 

Excellent post.

[notin]

I love Betts, but he isn’t the single greatest factor in 2020. The Sox can keep him, “go for it”, and still flop. Sure they can wait until July to deal him for a prospect and some table scraps, lose him forever to free agency, and somehow hope 2021 and beyond will be different.

 

Deal him now, get the best offer in a trade, and go hard after him in 2021. The Sox chances of re-signing him long term are still probably greater than their chances of another title in 2020 if they keep him. And as for “deal him in July if,” that’s a half-measure. And half measures avail nothing

[Bellhorn04]

Deal him now, get the best offer in a trade, and go hard after him in 2021. The Sox chances of re-signing him long term are still probably greater than their chances of another title in 2020 if they keep him. And as for “deal him in July if,” that’s a half-measure. And half measures avail nothing

 

Come on, man. That was a great line in Breaking Bad, but it doesn't really apply here.

 

Seems to me the Yankees' half-measure with Chapman in 2016 worked out perfectly for them.

[moonslav59]

I love Betts, but he isn’t the single greatest factor in 2020. The Sox can keep him, “go for it”, and still flop. Sure they can wait until July to deal him for a prospect and some table scraps, lose him forever to free agency, and somehow hope 2021 and beyond will be different.

 

Deal him now, get the best offer in a trade, and go hard after him in 2021. The Sox chances of re-signing him long term are still probably greater than their chances of another title in 2020 if they keep him. And as for “deal him in July if,” that’s a half-measure. And half measures avail nothing

 

That's how I see it. First, I make him one final very generous extension offer, and let him know we value him and want him. Before trading him, I'd tell him we appreciate him and will be better in 2021 because of this trade. By 2021, we should have plenty of budget space to re-sign him. (By waiting until the season starts, however, we won't get a penalty for signing him in 2021.)

[notin]

Come on, man. That was a great line in Breaking Bad, but it doesn't really apply here.

 

Seems to me the Yankees' half-measure with Chapman in 2016 worked out perfectly for them.

 

 

1. It was a phrase before Breaking Bad.

2. It was not just a line; it was the title of the episode.

3. There is a difference between changing course and seeing just what happens until halfway through the season.

 

Put it this way. Does “going all in one last time” with Betts really seem like an option now that we know Jake Marisnick is on the table? Isn’t that like going all in when you have 2-7 off suit in the pocket?

[notin]

That's how I see it. First, I make him one final very generous extension offer, and let him know we value him and want him. Before trading him, I'd tell him we appreciate him and will be better in 2021 because of this trade. By 2021, we should have plenty of budget space to re-sign him. (By waiting until the season starts, however, we won't get a penalty for signing him in 2021.)

 

I don’t think they need to explain anything to Betts. He’s a grown man. And he is signing very likely for the most cash. He didn’t hire an agent to hold grudges for him.

 

Just be the guy holding the briefcase with the most cash...

[moonslav59]

I don’t think they need to explain anything to Betts. He’s a grown man. And he is signing very likely for the most cash. Just be the guy holding that briefcase...

 

True, but on last final very generous extension offer would speak for its self.

 

(The anti-Lester maneuver.)

[Bellhorn04]

1. It was a phrase before Breaking Bad.

2. It was not just a line; it was the title of the episode.

3. There is a difference between changing course and seeing just what happens until halfway through the season.

 

Put it this way. Does “going all in one last time” with Betts really seem like an option now that we know Jake Marisnick is on the table? Isn’t that like going all in when you have 2-7 off suit in the pocket?

 

I didn't even realize this until looking it up, but when the Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in July/16, they not only got Gleyber Torres, but Adam Warren and Billy McKinney (who was later traded to the Jays in the deal for J A Happ) and another player. And we talk about what DD gave up for Kimbrel!

 

I'll take that half-measure any day.

[notin]

I didn't even realize this until looking it up, but when the Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in July/16, they not only got Gleyber Torres, but Adam Warren and Billy McKinney (who was later traded to the Jays in the deal for J A Happ) and another player. And we talk about what DD gave up for Kimbrel!

 

I'll take that half-measure any day.

 

Oh that was a massive overpay, especially since the Cubs really weren’t struggling with their closer. But I don’t think you can count on another GM giving up that much. Compare it to what the Dodgers gave up for a half year of Machado....

[moonslav59]

I didn't even realize this until looking it up, but when the Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in July/16, they not only got Gleyber Torres, but Adam Warren and Billy McKinney (who was later traded to the Jays in the deal for J A Happ) and another player. And we talk about what DD gave up for Kimbrel!

 

I'll take that half-measure any day.

 

At the time, Kimbrel was paid like the top closer in MLB, but it was 3 years.

 

Teams have given up a lot for great players. I'm not sure many teams will or can pay $28M for Betts, but he's worth way more than that to any team. We should get a few very good offers- better, if we take back some salary or give some cash.

[notin]

FWIW, CBS Sports does have the Red Sox as Betts' most likely team in 2020

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/where-will-mookie-betts-play-in-2020-ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-on-their-chances-of-landing-the-current-red-sox-slugger/

[moonslav59]

FWIW, CBS Sports does have the Red Sox as Betts' most likely team in 2020

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/where-will-mookie-betts-play-in-2020-ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-on-their-chances-of-landing-the-current-red-sox-slugger/

 

This was from Sept 30th, before the playoffs, and it mentions the Dodgers getting desperate, if they don't win in 2019.

 

Hosuton was rumored to have wanted Eovaldi last winter. How about Betts & Eovaldi for Marisnik and a couple prospects?

 

Then, we resign Betts after 2020 with the money saved from JD's opt out and Eovaldi's lost contract.

[notin]

This was from Sept 30th, before the playoffs, and it mentions the Dodgers getting desperate, if they don't win in 2019.

 

Hosuton was rumored to have wanted Eovaldi last winter. How about Betts & Eovaldi for Marisnik and a couple prospects?

 

Then, we resign Betts after 2020 with the money saved from JD's opt out and Eovaldi's lost contract.

 

I don’t know the Astros budget, but does adding Greinke possibly hamper taking on Betts and Eovaldi?

[moonslav59]

I don’t know the Astros budget, but does adding Greinke possibly hamper taking on Betts and Eovaldi?

 

Betts is just 1 year- Eovaldi 2.

 

The Astros have tons of money due to not spending for several years.

 

They do have some stars nearing free agency and big arb years, but they are losing Cole, this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts is just 1 year- Eovaldi 2.

 

The Astros have tons of money due to not spending for several years.

 

They do have some stars nearing free agency and big arb years, but they are losing Cole, this year.

 

Eovaldi is 3.

[Kimmi]

I love Betts, but he isn’t the single greatest factor in 2020. The Sox can keep him, “go for it”, and still flop. Sure they can wait until July to deal him for a prospect and some table scraps, lose him forever to free agency, and somehow hope 2021 and beyond will be different.

 

Deal him now, get the best offer in a trade, and go hard after him in 2021. The Sox chances of re-signing him long term are still probably greater than their chances of another title in 2020 if they keep him. And as for “deal him in July if,” that’s a half-measure. And half measures avail nothing

 

Personally, I'm torn between keeping Mookie this year or trading him, though I'm leaning towards keeping him because I think the team has a really good chance to compete in 2020. Either way, I can see the benefits.

 

What I am against, however, is signing him to a long term contract. Ten year deal? No way would I do that. While I like the idea of a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I could not do 6 years at an AAV of $43 million per year. I think the Sox need to let him go.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is 3.

 

Yes, I mistyped. Thanks.

[notin]

Personally, I'm torn between keeping Mookie this year or trading him, though I'm leaning towards keeping him because I think the team has a really good chance to compete in 2020. Either way, I can see the benefits.

 

What I am against, however, is signing him to a long term contract. Ten year deal? No way would I do that. While I like the idea of a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I could not do 6 years at an AAV of $43 million per year. I think the Sox need to let him go.

 

Then the Sox should deal him. They’re only going to win it all if all three human arm slings are healthy. But they can deal Betts for some useful players not found within the Sox organization and maybe be that much better in 2021 and beyond...

[moonslav59]

Personally, I'm torn between keeping Mookie this year or trading him, though I'm leaning towards keeping him because I think the team has a really good chance to compete in 2020. Either way, I can see the benefits.

 

What I am against, however, is signing him to a long term contract. Ten year deal? No way would I do that. While I like the idea of a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I could not do 6 years at an AAV of $43 million per year. I think the Sox need to let him go.

 

What would Betts have to do, in your opinion, to earn $320M/10?

 

Would this be enough?

 

No seasons under 145 games.

 

.900 to 1.100 OPS for 2 seasons

.850-.950 OPS for 4 more seasons

.800-.900 OPS for 2 more seasons

.750-.850 OPS for last 2 seasons.

 

(No more than half his seasons on the low ends of these ranges)

[Kimmi]

Then the Sox should deal him. They’re only going to win it all if all three human arm slings are healthy. But they can deal Betts for some useful players not found within the Sox organization and maybe be that much better in 2021 and beyond...

 

I can't really argue against that. Like I said, I'm torn on the issue of trading or keeping Betts. I do think we'll be competitive next year, but I also believe we can be competitive without Mookie.

[Kimmi]

What would Betts have to do, in your opinion, to earn $320M/10?

 

Would this be enough?

 

No seasons under 145 games.

 

.900 to 1.100 OPS for 2 seasons

.850-.950 OPS for 4 more seasons

.800-.900 OPS for 2 more seasons

.750-.850 OPS for last 2 seasons.

 

(No more than half his seasons on the low ends of these ranges)

 

You are talking in terms of hindsight, Moon. If I knew that Mookie would put up really good numbers for the duration of the contract, I'd sign up in a heartbeat. It's the risk involved with a long term contract that I'm opposed to. Yes, Mookie may have less risk than other players, but there is still a lot of risk involved no matter who the player is.

[notin]

I can't really argue against that. Like I said, I'm torn on the issue of trading or keeping Betts. I do think we'll be competitive next year, but I also believe we can be competitive without Mookie.

 

I think so too. The Nationals did OK without Harper...