Are the playoffs really a crapshoot?

[moonslav59]

Here's something that fascinates me:

 

Over the last 20 years, 3 teams, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Oakland, have made the postseason, including Wild Card games, a combined total of 29 times.

 

Results:

 

Elimination in Wild Card Game - 5 (and no wins)

Elimination in LDS - 21

Elimination in LCS - 3

Appearances in World Series - 0

 

If the playoffs really are a pure crapshoot, these teams have been INCREDIBLY snakebit.

 

It's virtually impossible, by the odds, to flip a coin that many times and get heads every time.

 

It's not a snake bite.

 

They lost to better teams. It's kind of surprising they have no wins, and it's almost enough to make me want to change my vote to "No, not at all." Almost.

 

One reason could be that many of these lower teams make the playoffs by being balanced and having good 4th, 5th and 6th starters but not great top line 1-2-3 starters. The playoffs, with so many days off, favor teams with monsters at the top of their rotations. The rich and powerful teams. Teams that pay to have a great closer.

 

Still, the better teams win more often. I can't understand why this is even being debated.

Edited October 25, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I also can't understand why this is even being debated.

 

The evidence is overwhelming that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

No, not 100% a crapshoot, but very largely a crapshoot.

[a700hitter]

I also can't understand why this is even being debated.

 

The evidence is overwhelming that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

No, not 100% a crapshoot, but very largely a crapshoot.

You are in the minority.

[moonslav59]

I also can't understand why this is even being debated.

 

The evidence is overwhelming that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

No, not 100% a crapshoot, but very largely a crapshoot.

 

Where is your supporting evidence?

[Kimmi]

Where is your supporting evidence?

 

I posted several stats in this thread and in the Realistic thread before the topic moved here.

 

I posted two different studies results showing no correlation between the playoffs and pretty much anything.

[moonslav59]

I posted several stats in this thread and in the Realistic thread before the topic moved here.

 

I posted two different studies results showing no correlation between the playoffs and pretty much anything.

 

I guess I missed them.

[TylerD]

Where is your supporting evidence?

 

I posted a couple pages ago a few massive upsets in the World Series..... in which the response was basically "Well ya.... but that doesn't happen often" This thread is saying Are the playoffs really a crapshoot? It does not say however "Are the playoffs statistically a crapshoot in which no they aren't.... OBVIOUSLY the team that has the most wins or wins the division has had better odds of going to the World Series..... I guess Kimmi and I should back track and say STATISTICALLY the playoffs are not a crap shoot. However what I am trying to say and her In OUR opinion baseball is by far the leading sport in which upsets happen quite often and it generally doesn't come as a massive shocker. Lets face it.... Tampa beating Houston would have surprised me but it would have been absolutely no where close to the shock of say the Blue Jackets beating the Lightning last year or the Hurricanes beating the Capitals.

 

End of the day in my opinion I absolutely think the playoffs are a crapshoot. There have been many upsets in baseball that honestly just haven't surprised me..... But stats wise.... If you are just looking at the numbers the team with the most wins has gone on to the World Series far more than the under dog wild card team. But that is not what this thread title was asking at all.

[TylerD]

You are in the minority.

 

Who cares, this thread is asking an opinion. Not stats. I think people that like Trump are in the minority and strange.... Yet stats prove otherwise.

[moonslav59]

I posted a couple pages ago a few massive upsets in the World Series..... in which the response was basically "Well ya.... but that doesn't happen often" This thread is saying Are the playoffs really a crapshoot? It does not say however "Are the playoffs statistically a crapshoot in which no they aren't.... OBVIOUSLY the team that has the most wins or wins the division has had better odds of going to the World Series..... I guess Kimmi and I should back track and say STATISTICALLY the playoffs are not a crap shoot. However what I am trying to say and her In OUR opinion baseball is by far the leading sport in which upsets happen quite often and it generally doesn't come as a massive shocker. Lets face it.... Tampa beating Houston would have surprised me but it would have been absolutely no where close to the shock of say the Blue Jackets beating the Lightning last year or the Hurricanes beating the Capitals.

 

End of the day in my opinion I absolutely think the playoffs are a crapshoot. There have been many upsets in baseball that honestly just haven't surprised me..... But stats wise.... If you are just looking at the numbers the team with the most wins has gone on to the World Series far more than the under dog wild card team. But that is not what this thread title was asking at all.

 

I'm not arguing there are no upsets and the odds are 100% the best teams win.

 

Maybe we have different ideas of what crap shoot means, but to me a complete crap shoot means every series is a 50-50 guess.

 

It's not a 100%. It's not 50%. It seems clearly somewhere in between. To me, it's closer to 75% than 50%.

 

Are there upsets 50% of the series?

 

Would you call 40-45% upsets a crapshoot? (Just trying to see, if we are arguing semantics and not theory.)

 

How about 35%?

 

33%?

 

25%?

[TylerD]

I'm not arguing there are no upsets and the odds are 100% the best teams win.

 

Maybe we have different ideas of what crap shoot means, but to me a complete crap shoot means every series is a 50-50 guess.

 

It's not a 100%. It's not 50%. It seems clearly somewhere in between. To me, it's closer to 75% than 50%.

 

Are there upsets 50% of the series?

 

Would you call 40-45% upsets a crapshoot? (Just trying to see, if we are arguing semantics and not theory.)

 

How about 35%?

 

33%?

 

25%?

 

Maybe we are.... I think that is where the confusion is coming in. I honestly didn't think to put a number beside crap shoot. If crap shoot means 50 percent (which maybe it does, I didn't know that) Then I am wrong. I would tend to agree that it isn't a 50/50 who takes it.... Granted Tampa Bay Rays I said could take Houston and I actually remember saying this series is very 50/50 in my opinion. Came down to the final game..... I guess I don't know what percent I would give it. But what I do know is Hockey and NFL I am always certain with my picks. I am not always right (hence why I am stunned in those sports) where's MLB I do find it hard to pick a clear cut fave to go to the World Series. Honestly.... the Cards were red hot I was kind of thinking they might go, but at the beginning thought the Braves were strong.... Then the Nationals go.... That is what I mean by a crapshoot

 

You will never hear me say that with the NFL. Even with how competitive the NFC is right now.... I still see it coming down to the Saints and Packers come playoffs. 49ers, Seahawks, Vikes, Cowboys are all decent but I don't see anyone taking out the Saints or Packers. AFC it's the Patriots.... that's it.

[Kimmi]

I'm not arguing there are no upsets and the odds are 100% the best teams win.

 

Maybe we have different ideas of what crap shoot means, but to me a complete crap shoot means every series is a 50-50 guess.

 

It's not a 100%. It's not 50%. It seems clearly somewhere in between. To me, it's closer to 75% than 50%.

 

Are there upsets 50% of the series?

 

Would you call 40-45% upsets a crapshoot? (Just trying to see, if we are arguing semantics and not theory.)

 

How about 35%?

 

33%?

 

25%?

 

How about every team in the playoffs having between a 10 and 15 % chance of winning the World Series? Even odds would be a 12.5% chance.

[TylerD]

Definition of crapshoot:

a risky or uncertain matter

 

Let's put it this way, I would never in a million friggin years put money on an MLB team to go to the World Series come playoffs.

 

NFL I would (and I do) I also have won a lot of money in the NFL from it Largely in part because the Patriots go pretty much every friggin year.

 

NBA same thing... Outside of last year Lebron went to what.... 8 straight finals and Golden State was in like 6 or something

 

If the thread of this title was "Does the team with the most wins in regular season have a 50 percent chance or more of going to the World Series" then it would be a different story. But crapshoot does not mean a 50 50 chance. It just means it's risky and tough to decide.

[Bellhorn04]

Definition of crapshoot:

a risky or uncertain matter

 

Let's put it this way, I would never in a million friggin years put money on an MLB team to go to the World Series come playoffs.

 

NFL I would (and I do) I also have won a lot of money in the NFL from it Largely in part because the Patriots go pretty much every friggin year.

 

NBA same thing... Outside of last year Lebron went to what.... 8 straight finals and Golden State was in like 6 or something

 

If the thread of this title was "Does the team with the most wins in regular season have a 50 percent chance or more of going to the World Series" then it would be a different story. But crapshoot does not mean a 50 50 chance. It just means it's risky and tough to decide.

 

It's not a black and white question. That's why I put 'degrees of crapshoot' in the poll.

[Bellhorn04]

Aren't the Astros making a pretty good case for 'not a crapshoot'?

 

They've been the dominant regular season team over the last 3 years.

 

And they've been the dominant postseason team over the last 3 years.

[TylerD]

It's not a black and white question. That's why I put 'degrees of crapshoot' in the poll.

 

Yup, this isn't directed towards you. Some seem to think the definition of crapshoot is 50 50. However I think a crapshoot means anyone has a legit chance of going to the World Series. Yes Astros and Dodgers had the best chance but still a crapshoot hence why the Dodgers aren't in.

 

And yes, the Astros are building something special. But once they lose Cole things change. There is a reason why they say baseball is one of the hardest in the league to repeat a World Series back to back. I still would have not put money on them to go. I'm not stunned they made it but I also wasn't surprised that Tampa took them to game 5. Yankees and Astros was a total crapshoot in my opinion.

[moonslav59]

How about every team in the playoffs having between a 10 and 15 % chance of winning the World Series? Even odds would be a 12.5% chance.

 

I'd probably say it's more like 5-25% after the WC play-in game is played.

 

I'm think more of the head-to-head series. I know it's hard to choose the "favorite" based on winning % or WAR or who is hotter. Teams get better as the season goes on- soemtimes through trades or players getting healthy or just gelling at the right time (like the Rockies). It's hard to say, "The better team won," if we can't all agree on who the better team was/is. I get that this makes it hard to prove anything, but in my opinion, the better team wins closer to 75% of the time than 50%. Would you agree with that? (basically 62.5% or more)

 

Now, if a team is just marginally better, the chances are likely less than 62.5%.

 

I just happened to choose Winning % and showed that if the Astros win this year, a top 2 team from each league will have won the WS 75% of the time in the last 16 years.

 

If these were all a one game playoff structure all the way through, we'd see closer to a 50% number, but a 5 and 7 game series helps the better teams win more often.

 

Even if, like you propose, one team had a 10% chance and they play a team with a 15% chance, it's hardly a coin toss. It sounds like we both have a different isea of what a crap shoot means.

 

[TylerD]

Bold prediction. Yankees miss playoffs next year and Oakland wins it all. Boston comes close but loses to Oakland in the playoffs. I’m putting money on this.

[a700hitter]

Who cares, this thread is asking an opinion. Not stats. I think people that like Trump are in the minority and strange.... Yet stats prove otherwise.

In Massachusetts that would be true, but many think MA to be in the minority and strange.

[notin]

How often does the team with the best record actually win the World Series?

[Bellhorn04]

How often does the team with the best record actually win the World Series?

 

If the Astros win this year, it'll be 4 straight years that a team with the best record, or close to it, won.

[TylerD]

If the Astros win this year, it'll be 4 straight years that a team with the best record, or close to it, won.

 

Definitely the team with the best record probably has the better chance..... Granted I thought Tampa could get the upset. I still think had that gone 7 they could have but regardless. Dodgers had the best record 3 years ago and lost. But that truly did come down to the 2 best teams.

[moonslav59]

Definitely the team with the best record probably has the better chance..... Granted I thought Tampa could get the upset. I still think had that gone 7 they could have but regardless. Dodgers had the best record 3 years ago and lost. But that truly did come down to the 2 best teams.

 

Best record may not be the best criteria to use, even though I used best 2 records from each contest.

 

Strength of schedule is a major factor.

 

How many true underdogs have won it all in the past 15-20 years? The 2006 Cards? Anyone else?

[Bellhorn04]

Best record may not be the best criteria to use, even though I used best 2 records from each contest.

 

Strength of schedule is a major factor.

 

How many true underdogs have won it all in the past 15-20 years? The 2006 Cards? Anyone else?

 

My thinking is pretty much the same as yours. If it really is a crapshoot, more longshots should be coming in.

[moonslav59]

My thinking is pretty much the same as yours. If it really is a crapshoot, more longshots should be coming in.

 

Some advance a round or two, but they hardly ever win it all.

[Kimmi]

Definition of crapshoot:

a risky or uncertain matter

 

Let's put it this way, I would never in a million friggin years put money on an MLB team to go to the World Series come playoffs.

 

NFL I would (and I do) I also have won a lot of money in the NFL from it Largely in part because the Patriots go pretty much every friggin year.

 

NBA same thing... Outside of last year Lebron went to what.... 8 straight finals and Golden State was in like 6 or something

 

If the thread of this title was "Does the team with the most wins in regular season have a 50 percent chance or more of going to the World Series" then it would be a different story. But crapshoot does not mean a 50 50 chance. It just means it's risky and tough to decide.

 

There is no stat in the regular season that correlates to postseason wins. Not regular season wins, not best ERA, not highest team OPS, not best run differential, not best WAR, not best September record, not most experience, not best bullpen, not anything. That, to me, is the very definition of the postseason being a crapshoot. You cannot predict who is going to win with any degree of reliability.

[Kimmi]

Here is what a plot of regular season wins versus postseason wins looks like.

 

It's the very definition of random.

 

[Kimmi]

Aren't the Astros making a pretty good case for 'not a crapshoot'?

 

They've been the dominant regular season team over the last 3 years.

 

And they've been the dominant postseason team over the last 3 years.

 

The Astros have won most of their series by a 1-game margin. The swept the Guardians in the 2018 ALDS, only to lose to the Red Sox by a 1-4 margin. So, that year in the playoffs, they were .500.

 

In 2017, they beat the Sox 3 games to 1, but it took 7 games to win both the ALCS and WS.

 

So far this year, it took them 5 games to beat the Rays, and it might take 7 games to beat the Braves, or they might even lose.

 

I wouldn't consider that dominant. In most cases, I think the series could have gone either way.

[Kimmi]

I'd probably say it's more like 5-25% after the WC play-in game is played.

 

I'm think more of the head-to-head series. I know it's hard to choose the "favorite" based on winning % or WAR or who is hotter. Teams get better as the season goes on- soemtimes through trades or players getting healthy or just gelling at the right time (like the Rockies). It's hard to say, "The better team won," if we can't all agree on who the better team was/is. I get that this makes it hard to prove anything, but in my opinion, the better team wins closer to 75% of the time than 50%. Would you agree with that? (basically 62.5% or more)

 

Now, if a team is just marginally better, the chances are likely less than 62.5%.

 

I just happened to choose Winning % and showed that if the Astros win this year, a top 2 team from each league will have won the WS 75% of the time in the last 16 years.

 

If these were all a one game playoff structure all the way through, we'd see closer to a 50% number, but a 5 and 7 game series helps the better teams win more often.

 

Even if, like you propose, one team had a 10% chance and they play a team with a 15% chance, it's hardly a coin toss. It sounds like we both have a different isea of what a crap shoot means.

 

 

The powers that be put the percentages between 10 and 15%, with an occasionally really good team maybe having a 20% chance, which means they still have an 80% chance of not winning the WS.

 

Five and seven games series are still small samples. Baseball is such a random sport that it takes 162 games to determine who the better teams are. You can't really conclude anything in a 7 game series.

[Kimmi]

Most people agree that it's not always the best team that wins, it's the team that plays the best or gets hot at the right time.

 

Isn't that randomness? Why yes, it is.

 

In addition to that randomness, what about all of the plays, like the potential series winning hit in 2004 that bounced over the wall for a ground rule double? Bad bounce for the Yankees, great bounce for the Red Sox. If that ball stays in play, there likely would have been a completely different outcome.

[TylerD]

Best record may not be the best criteria to use, even though I used best 2 records from each contest.

 

Strength of schedule is a major factor.

 

How many true underdogs have won it all in the past 15-20 years? The 2006 Cards? Anyone else?

 

Well to be fair the title of this is "Are the playoffs a crapshoot" I didn't see the Cards beating the Braves, and didn't see the Nationals beating the Dodgers but here we are. Looking at the strength of schedule is getting very picky. Not many people do that, just the die hards.... I don't want to go into those stats nor do I have the time to go into each team's schedule the last 10 years. Let's just go with over all record shall we. The Patriots are undefeated and same with the 49ers for a combine 15-0 and yet the teams they have beaten have a combine win of 24 between 12 teams.... Not exactly a tough schedule, but they are legit teams who both could very well go to the Super Bowl. Same with baseball. If the Dodgers have 105 wins but had an easy schedule and lost to the Cards who has 90 wins.... It's still shocking..... Hardly anybody says "I Knew they would lose!!!!! Cards had a tougher schedule" lol.

 

True under dogs to win it all whether you agree or not.

03 Florida beating the Yankees

06 Cards beating Tigers

11 Cards beating Rangers

 

However I am more talking about playoffs..... Say a team like Tampa taking Houston to game 4 and maybe win it all but then lose to the Yankees. Upsets happen all the time in MLB playoffs, hence why I say it's a crap shoot. Maybe the true under dog doesn't get to the World Series all the time but they can upset the team with the better record quite often.

 

In the 90's there was about 4 or 5 straight years where the top team lost to a lesser team

 

1996 Baltimore over Cleveland

1997 Florida over Atlanta

1998 San Diego over Atlanta

 

How about 2011 when the Cards beat the Phillies oooor...

How about 2014 when the Angels lost to the Royals?

 

I could go on and on, but my head hurts.... My point is upsets happen a lot in MLB.... Not all the time do those upsets go to the World Series but underdogs come out victorious a hell of a lot more in MLB than the NFL or NHL.... or it just seems that way I dunno. Regardless nothing surprises me when it comes to baseball. Yes I am always a bit shocked if a Wild Card team goes all the way but not near as shocked as I would be in the NFL like when the Giants won it all.

 

Sheesh I sound like a broken record. It's a crapshoot. I'm just going to start copying and pasting that lol.