2020 Yankee Off-Season Thread

[Meh]

Not sure we need rotation depth. We have tons of it. We need a headliner. We don’t need a #10

 

Yeah, Red Sox looking like they need Johnson more than the Yankees right now. I'd take some IFA cash from the sox though

[notin]

We aren’t DFAing Ben Heller. We held the guy on the 40 man through his entire TJS and looked pretty good on his way back. No point in DFAing him and watching him go elsewhere

 

The Yankees kept him on the 40 man roster despite being out for the year with TJ surgery? That was silly.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees kept him on the 40 man roster despite being out for the year with TJ surgery? That was silly.

 

The guy prior to TJS was hitting 100 with an absolutely devastating slider. He is a keeper for sure. This is the year he should be back to 100%. If he doesn't return to that previous level, then you deal him or cut him

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure we need rotation depth. We have tons of it. We need a headliner. We don’t need a #10

 

Here is our depth in real time

 

1. Severino

2. Paxton

3. Tanaka

4. German

5. Montgomery

6. Happ

7. D. Garcia

8. Schmidt

9. Cessa

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks are in on Tim Hill. Soft tossing lefty murderer. He has four years of control left and would require some pain (read: prospects) to acquire. Not sure why we are going this route especially with the new MLB rules essentially making LOOGY’s obsolete. Also, it’s not like we lack quality left handed options.

[Carpin]

Greg Bird clears waivers is officially a FA

[jacksonianmarch]

A big wild card this time around is going to be Loaisiga. This kid has insane stuff. He just hasn’t stayed healthy as a starter. He’s got the kind of wipeout stuff that he could suffice as the Betances replacement, especially since we got 2/3 of an inning from Dellin all of last year. My bet is we see him beaten out for a rotation spot in the spring and he’s carried as a reliever and he dominates.

[Carpin]

A big wild card this time around is going to be Loaisiga. This kid has insane stuff. He just hasn’t stayed healthy as a starter. He’s got the kind of wipeout stuff that he could suffice as the Betances replacement, especially since we got 2/3 of an inning from Dellin all of last year. My bet is we see him beaten out for a rotation spot in the spring and he’s carried as a reliever and he dominates.

 

The problem with Loaisiga is that he has a very fragile frame he can't stay healthy, they can convert him full time to a RP and hope his body holds up the work load there

[jacksonianmarch]

There are a lot of players like him who cannot stay healthy as starters and end up handling the smaller, more frequent workload better

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks are in on Treinen. I’d rather look at him after his non tender than guarantee almost $8 mil towards him for 2020

[jacksonianmarch]

The Phils are looking at Betances and a Romine. Both players we can replace internally. Philly is a weird spot for Romine with the Phils already having Realmuto and a ready top prospect behind him. Betances can make sense for anyone.

 

I have always held out hope that Betances came back to us, but after his infighting with management over his contract and after a frustrating 2019, I wouldn’t be surprised if he wanted a clean break and a bigger role. I do wonder if Betances ends up in Chicago with the White Sox. The south siders are throwing around money thus far and really need a lock down reliever with Herrera on the fritz.

 

We can also replace him internally. We won 103 games without his presence and have a young kid looking pretty similar to Betances in terms of stuff and current direction. Dellin was drafted all the way back in 06 and was a failed starter. Loaisiga was signed 8 years ago and has had issues with consistency and injury as a starter. I do think Loaisiga ends up as a pretty premium relief arm.

 

As for Romine, we don’t have the finances to allocate a good contract to him and with the dearth of good catching options out there and the fact that Higashioka is out of options, there’s no real place for Romine in the Bronx. If Romine plays his cards right, he can sign a nice contract (3 yrs $21-$24 mil) somewhere to be a starter, he just might need to do that on a team with limited post season chances

[Carpin]

The Phils are looking at Betances and a Romine. Both players we can replace internally. Philly is a weird spot for Romine with the Phils already having Realmuto and a ready top prospect behind him. Betances can make sense for anyone.

 

I have always held out hope that Betances came back to us, but after his infighting with management over his contract and after a frustrating 2019, I wouldn’t be surprised if he wanted a clean break and a bigger role. I do wonder if Betances ends up in Chicago with the White Sox. The south siders are throwing around money thus far and really need a lock down reliever with Herrera on the fritz.

 

We can also replace him internally. We won 103 games without his presence and have a young kid looking pretty similar to Betances in terms of stuff and current direction. Dellin was drafted all the way back in 06 and was a failed starter. Loaisiga was signed 8 years ago and has had issues with consistency and injury as a starter. I do think Loaisiga ends up as a pretty premium relief arm.

 

As for Romine, we don’t have the finances to allocate a good contract to him and with the dearth of good catching options out there and the fact that Higashioka is out of options, there’s no real place for Romine in the Bronx. If Romine plays his cards right, he can sign a nice contract (3 yrs $21-$24 mil) somewhere to be a starter, he just might need to do that on a team with limited post season chances

 

The question is: which team is looking for a starting catcher? if so, do they have the financial flexibility to land him?

 

So far the Rays and the Pirates are looking for a starting catcher and none of them have a lot of money to spend in that position

[Meh]

The question is: which team is looking for a starting catcher? if so, do they have the financial flexibility to land him?

 

So far the Rays and the Pirates are looking for a starting catcher and none of them have a lot of money to spend in that position

 

I think you can add the Rangers and Angels in as looking for catching help. maybe even the Rockies. and im sure there are more teams.

[notin]

The question is: which team is looking for a starting catcher? if so, do they have the financial flexibility to land him?

 

So far the Rays and the Pirates are looking for a starting catcher and none of them have a lot of money to spend in that position

 

And Romine won't be getting 3 year $21mill. THat's basically the contract Ottavino and Joe Kelly got, and no one likely to befall a career backup catcher. Even former all-star Wilson Ramos got neither those years not money. Last off-season, former Gold Glover Martin Maldonado settled for a 1 year $2.5mill contract. Kurt Suzuki got 2 years $10mill. Romine's career falls short of both of theirs, so don;t expect that much for him...

[Carpin]

And Romine won't be getting 3 year $21mill. THat's basically the contract Ottavino and Joe Kelly got, and no one likely to befall a career backup catcher. Even former all-star Wilson Ramos got neither those years not money. Last off-season, former Gold Glover Martin Maldonado settled for a 1 year $2.5mill contract. Kurt Suzuki got 2 years $10mill. Romine's career falls short of both of theirs, so don;t expect that much for him...

 

I agree with you on the salary, but I'm sure Romine is looking for a starting job. The angels could be a good fit for him

[jacksonianmarch]

Don’t forget about the Astros

[Meh]

Not going to happen, but how about this,

 

Brewers get: Andujar, JD Davis, Ford, and Holder

 

Brewers get their 3B, 1B, and insurance. Also they can plug Holder into the bullpen.

 

Mets get: Hader, Fraizer, and Zach Brown

 

Mets get salary relief to some degree, a closer, their starting LF, and a starting pitcher prospect they can work on and would be big league ready by the latest June.

 

Yankees get: Noah, Diaz, and small amounts(about 250k) of IFA money from both teams.

 

Yankees get Noah to plug into the rotation and can see if they can fix Diaz.

[notin]

Not going to happen, but how about this,

 

Brewers get: Andujar, JD Davis, Ford, and Holder

 

Brewers get their 3B, 1B, and insurance. Also they can plug Holder into the bullpen.

 

Mets get: Hader, Fraizer, and Zach Brown

 

Mets get salary relief to some degree, a closer, their starting LF, and a starting pitcher prospect they can work on and would be big league ready by the latest June.

 

Yankees get: Noah, Diaz, and small amounts(about 250k) of IFA money from both teams.

 

Yankees get Noah to plug into the rotation and can see if they can fix Diaz.

 

 

I ran this through the simulator at baseballtradevalues.com, but without the money since it can only handle increments of $1 million.

 

It basically says the Mets are getting screwed here and the Yankees are making out like bandits (and remember, that is before the money was added). It was an equal trade for the Brewers, at least in terms of surplus value. Now, they might have different feeling about using their best trade asset to get some "insurance" for two holes they are filling and prefer to just fill another hole.

 

Per BTV, the Yankees are acquiring $89mill in surplus value while only giving up $45mill. The Mets are acquiring $62mill in surplus value while giving up $104mill. You might be underestimating what it will take to get Syndergaard, who on his own is worth an estimated $75.7mill in surplus value.

 

And then there is the whole question of why the Mets would acquire an asset like Hader, who represents an immediate fix, and the go and deal an asset like Syndergaard, which makes it much more difficult to take advantage of immediate fixes. This is the kind of thing simple trade values cannot catch, but the logic is counter-intuitive for the Mets. Especially since this team is trying to win and already lost Zack Wheeler in the rotation. Losing Syndergaard just makes their whole season taht much more difficult

 

This trade does become a lot more equal in terms of trade value if the Yankees are willing to take back the contracts of Cespedes and Familia, but that doesn't solve the logic problem for the Mets.

 

It also works out even better if the Yankees just take Syndergaard and Cespedes and let the Mets keep Diaz, and have their power combo to close out games, assuming they have any starters left capable of giving them a lead. That trade was accepted by the simulator. Or if the Yankees don't want Cespedes (they don't), they could also give up Deivi Garcia and either Tauchman or Antonio Cabello to the Mets, although neither really fills their immediate need for a CF...

Edited December 3, 2019 by notin

[notin]

Not going to happen, but how about this,

 

Brewers get: Andujar, JD Davis, Ford, and Holder

 

Brewers get their 3B, 1B, and insurance. Also they can plug Holder into the bullpen.

 

Mets get: Hader, Fraizer, and Zach Brown

 

Mets get salary relief to some degree, a closer, their starting LF, and a starting pitcher prospect they can work on and would be big league ready by the latest June.

 

Yankees get: Noah, Diaz, and small amounts(about 250k) of IFA money from both teams.

 

Yankees get Noah to plug into the rotation and can see if they can fix Diaz.

 

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-17213/#comment-4831

[Carpin]

The Mets will never do a trade like this with the Yankees, they could do an even worse trade but never with the Yankees

[jacksonianmarch]

Not really interested in Noah. He’s gonna cost a fortune and is injury prone. We need an ace. There are two shutdown aces available for just money and some draft pick comp. Get one of them.

 

We don’t need another “reliable” back end or even mid rotation guy. We need an ace who can show this rotation the ropes and take all the pressure off them

[notin]

Not really interested in Noah. He’s gonna cost a fortune and is injury prone. We need an ace. There are two shutdown aces available for just money and some draft pick comp. Get one of them.

 

We don’t need another “reliable” back end or even mid rotation guy. We need an ace who can show this rotation the ropes and take all the pressure off them

 

But today's free agent ace is tomorrow's injured albatross...

[notin]

The Mets will never do a trade like this with the Yankees, they could do an even worse trade but never with the Yankees

 

The Yankees and Mets have made 16 trades in MLB history. Granted, none were blockbusters, but so few trades are blockbusters. I think the biggest one might have been Justice for Ventura...

[Carpin]

Most trades between Mats and Yankees are only for minor pieces, no way the Mets trade Noah (or a big name player) without a massive overpay from the Yankees, Cashman will never do that

[jacksonianmarch]

Big pitcher contracts aren’t always horrendous, especially the ones for top notch aces. Where you get purged are the second tier pitchers getting paid a little less than the aces. We need an ace. No question. Cole is a horse who has been pretty healthy

[Meh]

I do not have any insider information on this deal. It was just for fun. I saw the Brewers needs, but I didn't see a match up and just for fun I was thinking. Also I doubt MLB GMs use that trade calculator when completing deals. There is no chance Fraizer's value is that low. Again I'm not saying Cashman told me directly this would happen, its just something I thought of for fun.

[notin]

Big pitcher contracts aren’t always horrendous, especially the ones for top notch aces. Where you get purged are the second tier pitchers getting paid a little less than the aces. We need an ace. No question. Cole is a horse who has been pretty healthy

 

Change the name “Cole” to “Price” and I was having this exact same verbatim argument with Red Sox fans back in 2015. BTW, your next counterpoint is to tell me how Scherzer’s deal has worked out. Then I can counter with a list of deals that didn’t.

 

We don’t even need to continue this argument. I can do both parts. Just consider your team lucky that Cole is going to sign with the Angels and give them a couple great years before completely dragging them down. The Yankees really just need to acknowledge they have an ace-in-waiting and then go get a mid-tier innings eater not named Porcello (where the true bargains really are, despite your claim to the contrary) and move forward.

 

But to fans, free agency is about PR and ticket sales and big names. And fans do like big names...

[Bellhorn04]

Change the name “Cole” to “Price” and I was having this exact same verbatim argument with Red Sox fans back in 2015. BTW, your next counterpoint is to tell me how Scherzer’s deal has worked out. Then I can counter with a list of deals that didn’t.

 

We don’t even need to continue this argument. I can do both parts. Just consider your team lucky that Cole is going to sign with the Angels and give them a couple great years before completely dragging them down. The Yankees really just need to acknowledge they have an ace-in-waiting and then go get a mid-tier innings eater not named Porcello (where the true bargains really are, despite your claim to the contrary) and move forward.

 

But to fans, free agency is about PR and ticket sales and big names. And fans do like big names...

 

Fans want championships.

 

Championship teams of recent years have featured big name pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of Yankee fans are pissed off at Cashman for being too clever about the starting pitching, not just doing the obvious thing and acquiring the big name studs.

[notin]

I do not have any insider information on this deal. It was just for fun. I saw the Brewers needs, but I didn't see a match up and just for fun I was thinking. Also I doubt MLB GMs use that trade calculator when completing deals. There is no chance Fraizer's value is that low. Again I'm not saying Cashman told me directly this would happen, its just something I thought of for fun.

 

GMs may not use a trade calculator, but they do have a method of evaluation beyond the typical fan, which is quite often nothing more than “I would like my team to get this superstar player, and the team that has him needs a shortstop, and we have a spare one. It works out perfectly.” Or “we have this reasonably decent bench player, he should be able to get a superstar pitcher in return.”

 

If a Mets fan read your proposal, I can promise you he would have agreed with me. That “trade calculator “ just compare future WAR projections to future salary projections. Do you think GMs don’t do anything like that?

 

Also, the Yankees fans appear to be the only ones high on Clint Frazier. The Yankees don’t want to play him. And no team wants to trade for him...