The "Go For It" Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have two different paths for 2020. Go for it or Reset/possibly rebuild. This thread is about going for it. The sox as it stands have about $26 mil to play with before hitting the top threshold. This includes arb estimations and keeping everyone together. This would eschew what Henry said about resetting. This is a "push the chips to the middle" thread. No garbage about dealing off guys for prospects. So, Henry hires you as the GM. Says the directive is to win as many games as possible without incurring the draft penalty, what do you do?

 

Me, first thing I do is either deal JBJ or non-tender him. This will free up about $12 mil on the budget. That now leaves me with $38 mil to spend. First order of business will be to sign a new CFer, one that can play defense. I don't really care about the offense. If I really need offense, JD can move to LF and Fat Beni can go to CF. But the guy I sign is Juan Lagares. Yes, he isn't healthy all the time. Yes, he had a downturn in defense due to a leg injury. But when the guy is healthy, he plays JBJ level defense and he should be available for almost nothing. This will give you a starter in CF for maybe 100 games. He will bat 9th and will probably hit around .230 with no pop. But his defense, if healthy, will help the team. And you sign him for league minimum which is essentially free. I know Cameron Maybin is a name everyone loves, but someone will overpay him and you cannot afford a lot of money spent here. You need defense and Lagares will give that to you

 

The next thing I do is turn to the staff. I need a starter to replace Porcello. Absolutely no way you can enter 2020 trying to win with the rotation having just one guy who is healthy at season's end in ERod. You need less an ace and more a durable innings eater. I would absolutely kick the tires on Odorizzi. Yes, he had a career year, which may inflate his cost. But the reason why I like him is he has started at least 28 games 6 years in a row. He conquered his HR issue, saw a velo jump, improved his K rates and dropped his walk rates. My guess is his mediocrity prior to last year will suppress his value. I would offer him a swellopt contract. A "3" year deal with a 4th yr option that needs to be picked up after year 1. If not picked up, year 3 turns into a player option at a higher rate. This gives Odorizzi (who turns 30 in March) the chance to get a long term deal, but control his own future after 2 if the sox don't commit to the 4th year. I'd do a 3 yr $50 mil contract with a 4th year option for $15 mil. The third year player option is $20 mil as opposed to the $16.7 mil he would earn on a standard year 3 if the option is picked up. This would give the sox a rotation that starts ERod-Odorizzi then the injured or unreliable 3. If one of the three comes back well, then you've got a reasonable rotation.

 

With the money left ($22 mil or so), I turn my attention to the pen. The first person I call is Dellin Betances. Outside of Chapman, he is the best reliever on the market. You probably just incurred a draft penalty signing Odorizzi, so you don't want to do it twice and Betances won't be getting a QO. I would offer him a 2 yr deal with a vesting option for year 3. Coming off an Achilles injury, I think Dellin will be hard pressed to find a multi year deal. The sox could nab him with a 2 yr deal. I'd offer $14 mil total (Ottavino money) with escalators for games finished and games pitched with total value per year of $10 mil. The option would be another season at $7 mil with $3 mil in escalators triggered if Betances pitches in 100 games in the first 2 seasons (easily attainable).

 

This would leave the sox with $15 mil to play with come the deadline. It allows the nucleus to stay intact and reinforces the areas of concern. I would be on the lookout for a salary dump situation to use the $15 mil on come the deadline.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Stop, I don't want to envision Betances in a Sox uniform.

[OH FOY]

You think the Sox should talk to the Twins about Byron Buxton? Maybe a change of scenery, just as good as JBJ in CF.

[notin]

I don't agree with your budget estimates.

 

Per sportsrac, the Sox have about $56mill before the first limit. The arb cases for Betts, Benintendi, ERod, Barnes, and Workman should tally in lose to about $45-50mill, leaving JBJ ($10-12mill) on the outside looking in (as you have him). That leaves te Sox with about $6-11mill total to spend. Not much for getting a rotation piece and bullpen help and a CF and RF. The budget might go up a little if JD opts out and re-signs at a lower AAV, but that would increase it by maybe $6mill at most.

 

I don't see squeezing in Odrizzi and Betances. Unless the Sox disregard the limit, and it is not etched in stone that they will stick to it.

 

I will say, I don;t think Henry minds paying $X million in luxury taxes, if it leads to him making $X+Ymillion in revenue...

[notin]

You think the Sox should talk to the Twins about Byron Buxton? Maybe a change of scenery, just as good as JBJ in CF.

 

Per baseballtradevalues,com, Byron Buxton is worth $21.8mill in surplus trade values. Using their method, the Sox could get him by dealing either Dalbec ($17.5mill) or Chavis ($17.7mill), paired with one of Tanner Houck ($4.8mill), Groome ($4.3mill), Antonio Flores (($3.7mill) or maybe Nick Decker ($3.6mill). Depending on whether or not the Twins even like any of those prospects.

 

But yes - Buxton is an amazing defensive CF. Agree there...

[Jack Flap]

I do like the Buxton idea (if MIN would even be interested in moving him)... Chavis, Sam Travis, Brett Netzer, and Cole Brannen gets it done according to that trade values site, which wouldn't happen in real life, but if i did , I would drive all involved to Minnesota myself...

[moonslav59]

What is the $38M number?

 

No reset? $1M under the max line?

[notin]

I do like the Buxton idea (if MIN would even be interested in moving him)... Chavis, Sam Travis, Brett Netzer, and Cole Brannen gets it done according to that trade values site, which wouldn't happen in real life, but if i did , I would drive all involved to Minnesota myself...

 

Chavis is certainly a good start towards getting Buxton. The rest are crap. A Chavis-Houck package should intrigue MN, but I’d be hesitant if I were Boston and I’d rather hold on to my pitching prospects...

[Carpin]

Stop, I don't want to envision Betances in a Sox uniform.

 

Me neither, I just don't see him playing for the Sox, I bet he stays with the Yankees or go to the Mets. I don't see him leaving NYC

[kenmeister]

Who plays 2B and 1B next year?

[notin]

Who plays 2B and 1B next year?

 

As illinoissoxfan reminds us, Who is on first and What is on second...

[S5Dewey]

Who plays 2B and 1B next year?

 

I believe we've already decided that Who's on first. If we find that Who can't play first we move Bobby Dalbec there.

[notin]

I believe we've already decided that Who's on first. If we find that Who can't play first we move Bobby Dalbec there.

 

I figured you of all people would want Dalbec at 3B and Devers at 1b. Even last spring, Dalbec impressed Cora enough with his fielding to last a lot longer in ST than a lot of other players....

[Nick]

The sox have two different paths for 2020. Go for it or Reset/possibly rebuild. This thread is about going for it. The sox as it stands have about $26 mil to play with before hitting the top threshold. This includes arb estimations and keeping everyone together. This would eschew what Henry said about resetting. This is a "push the chips to the middle" thread. No garbage about dealing off guys for prospects. So, Henry hires you as the GM. Says the directive is to win as many games as possible without incurring the draft penalty, what do you do?

 

Me, first thing I do is either deal JBJ or non-tender him. This will free up about $12 mil on the budget. That now leaves me with $38 mil to spend. First order of business will be to sign a new CFer, one that can play defense. I don't really care about the offense. If I really need offense, JD can move to LF and Fat Beni can go to CF. But the guy I sign is Juan Lagares. Yes, he isn't healthy all the time. Yes, he had a downturn in defense due to a leg injury. But when the guy is healthy, he plays JBJ level defense and he should be available for almost nothing. This will give you a starter in CF for maybe 100 games. He will bat 9th and will probably hit around .230 with no pop. But his defense, if healthy, will help the team. And you sign him for league minimum which is essentially free. I know Cameron Maybin is a name everyone loves, but someone will overpay him and you cannot afford a lot of money spent here. You need defense and Lagares will give that to you

 

The next thing I do is turn to the staff. I need a starter to replace Porcello. Absolutely no way you can enter 2020 trying to win with the rotation having just one guy who is healthy at season's end in ERod. You need less an ace and more a durable innings eater. I would absolutely kick the tires on Odorizzi. Yes, he had a career year, which may inflate his cost. But the reason why I like him is he has started at least 28 games 6 years in a row. He conquered his HR issue, saw a velo jump, improved his K rates and dropped his walk rates. My guess is his mediocrity prior to last year will suppress his value. I would offer him a swellopt contract. A "3" year deal with a 4th yr option that needs to be picked up after year 1. If not picked up, year 3 turns into a player option at a higher rate. This gives Odorizzi (who turns 30 in March) the chance to get a long term deal, but control his own future after 2 if the sox don't commit to the 4th year. I'd do a 3 yr $50 mil contract with a 4th year option for $15 mil. The third year player option is $20 mil as opposed to the $16.7 mil he would earn on a standard year 3 if the option is picked up. This would give the sox a rotation that starts ERod-Odorizzi then the injured or unreliable 3. If one of the three comes back well, then you've got a reasonable rotation.

 

With the money left ($22 mil or so), I turn my attention to the pen. The first person I call is Dellin Betances. Outside of Chapman, he is the best reliever on the market. You probably just incurred a draft penalty signing Odorizzi, so you don't want to do it twice and Betances won't be getting a QO. I would offer him a 2 yr deal with a vesting option for year 3. Coming off an Achilles injury, I think Dellin will be hard pressed to find a multi year deal. The sox could nab him with a 2 yr deal. I'd offer $14 mil total (Ottavino money) with escalators for games finished and games pitched with total value per year of $10 mil. The option would be another season at $7 mil with $3 mil in escalators triggered if Betances pitches in 100 games in the first 2 seasons (easily attainable).

 

This would leave the sox with $15 mil to play with come the deadline. It allows the nucleus to stay intact and reinforces the areas of concern. I would be on the lookout for a salary dump situation to use the $15 mil on come the deadline.

 

I have the team at $208M with JBJ gone, 1B Sam Travis, 2B Chavis, CF/SP5 and everyone else on 25 man roster (no contract, no arbitration) playing at minimum.

 

So to go for it without going over $248M, we have about $40M for upgrade. (I've already included $15M for benefits accounted for remaining 15 players on 40 man roster).

 

Assuming Price, Sale and Eovaldi come back healthy, it's definitely doable to go for it. It's still all about starting pitching.

 

Not sure if Henry wants go 'go for it'.

[kenmeister]

I have the team at $208M with JBJ gone, 1B Sam Travis, 2B Chavis, CF/SP5 and everyone else on 25 man roster (no contract, no arbitration) playing at minimum.

 

I'm really not sure Travis can play at the major league level. Do we have other options?

[moonslav59]

I'm really not sure Travis can play at the major league level. Do we have other options?

 

1B: Chavis, Dalbec (from 3B), Travis, Ockimey (vs RHPs only) or Devers moved from 3B (Dalbec or FA at 3B)

2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham

[notin]

1B: Chavis, Dalbec (from 3B), Travis, Ockimey (vs RHPs only) or Devers moved from 3B (Dalbec or FA at 3B)

2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham

 

I like the simple idea

 

1b: Devers. Hoping for a repeat of the success Youkilis had moving

2b: Lin. I think he’s a better all around player than Marco

3b: Dalbec. If he doesn’t hit, he is at least a defensive upgrade

SS: Bogaerts

 

Chavis is the new Brock Holt. Make it happen, ummmm... errr ahhhh... new GM person...