The JD opt out

[Michigan adam]

Average pitching?

 

We had above average pitching by almost any measure.

 

Out of 30 teams, we ranked...

 

12th in WAR

 

13th in xFIP

 

14th in ERA-

 

14th in K/BB

 

20th in WHIP

 

Now, if you are talking about just Sale, Price and Porcello having a career norm season in 2019, instead of what they had, then yes, we'd have won way more games. It might be close to 12-13 more wins.

 

Sale: before 2019: 2.89 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 7 years)

Add 53 IP and 10 less ERs to his totals

 

Price before 2019: 3.25 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 9 years)

Add 83 IP and 21 more ERs

 

Porcello before 2019: 4.26 ERA (31 GS/186 IP last 10 years)

Add 12 IP and 19 less ERs.

 

Total:

+148 IP

- 8 ERs

 

That's very significant, because those 148 IP would be subtracted from most of our worst pitchers.

 

THats what I said, just not as clear. You take those innings off cashner alone as an example, as he was added primarily due to the big three pitching poorly and you have the runs allowed of the yankees basically.

[jacksonianmarch]

Don’t waste your breath. Jackson can post some intelligence, however his hate of the Red Sox blinds him half the time from making decent posts. Average pitching absolutely takes us to the playoffs. We missed by 12 games, and that seems worse than it is because we checked out completely the last month. Average pitching without a doubt wins us 12 more games to be in a wild card spot, and very good pitching like last year would grab us first place. Jackson thinks if we lose Martinez we go from a top 5 offense to bottom of the barrel (lmfao) and he also thinks if the pitching was better we still miss the playoffs. I give up on arguing with stupid comments.

 

Didn’t say any of that. But keep on speculating.

[moonslav59]

THats what I said, just not as clear. You take those innings off cashner alone as an example, as he was added primarily due to the big three pitching poorly and you have the runs allowed of the yankees basically.

 

More like Cashner, Weber, Chacin and Johnson.

 

IP ER Pitcher

54 37 Cashner

41 23 Weber

40 27 Johnson

15 12 Chacin

 

Total

149 IP 99 ERs

 

Replaced by

148 IP -8 ERS

 

That's a 107 ER swing.

 

Lot's of ifs, and if the Yankee starters had 100% health, they'd have won more, too.

[Slasher9]

That’s speculation on both fronts.

 

JD likely loses money if he opts out this year. Being traded - which is not a doublecross - doesn’t change his earnings.

 

Boras has a reputation for being all about the money. Why would he advise his client to take less money?

 

there is a scenario where JD opts out and resigns for an overall higher $$ amount albeit less AAV. Scott Boras would 100% nudge JD to opt out if he would make more overall $$$ by signing a new contract. Boras wants the commission on the extra $$ and doesnt care if it lowers JD's AAV....

[Elktonnick]

there is a scenario where JD opts out and resigns for an overall higher $$ amount albeit less AAV. Scott Boras would 100% nudge JD to opt out if he would make more overall $$$ by signing a new contract. Boras wants the commission on the extra $$ and doesnt care if it lowers JD's AAV....

 

I think JD is giving every indication he is opting out. He has got his ring. John Henry is giving every sign he wants to cut payroll. JD has to be thinking that the Red Sox aren't going to be as good in the next few years so why not try and sign with a team hell bent on winning.

[Bellhorn04]

I think JD is giving every indication he is opting out. He has got his ring. John Henry is giving every sign he wants to cut payroll. JD has to be thinking that the Red Sox aren't going to be as good in the next few years so why not try and sign with a team hell bent on winning.

 

Very possible.

[notin]

I think JD is giving every indication he is opting out. He has got his ring. John Henry is giving every sign he wants to cut payroll. JD has to be thinking that the Red Sox aren't going to be as good in the next few years so why not try and sign with a team hell bent on winning.

 

Because his options are limited in that respect?

[notin]

there is a scenario where JD opts out and resigns for an overall higher $$ amount albeit less AAV. Scott Boras would 100% nudge JD to opt out if he would make more overall $$$ by signing a new contract. Boras wants the commission on the extra $$ and doesnt care if it lowers JD's AAV....

 

It's not about the AAV, but the total. It makes more sense for Martinez to opt out after 2020, and Boras knows this. JD might be able to get more than $60mill this year, but he will easily get more than $38mill next year...

[Elktonnick]

It's not about the AAV, but the total. It makes more sense for Martinez to opt out after 2020, and Boras knows this. JD might be able to get more than $60mill this year, but he will easily get more than $38mill next year...

 

Under JD's current contract I believe he gets 2.5 million if he opts out this year but none in either 20 or 21. I think the only way he does not opt out this year is if he gets some guarantee that Boston won't trade him. I don't see Boston giving such a guarantee because there is a lot of speculation among Boston sportswriters that the Red Sox want him to opt out for a whole host of reasons.

 

As to a trade JD's contract with the opt out years in 20 and 21 means that the receiving team is getting a one year rental unless JD and Boras are willing to renegotiate his contract. Under such conditions I don't see Boston getting that much in any deal other than a salary dump. Furthermore, given the number of players Boras represents and his exposure across baseball, I am sure he has a pretty good idea which teams would want JD and at what price. I suspect he probably has a better idea and handle on JD's market value than does Boston. The fact that Boston doesn't have a current head of baseball operations handicaps them going forward despite what Henry et al may say to the press.

[OH FOY]

I think Sox Ownership wants him to Opt out, or hopes he does.

Reason counting JD's 23.75 million, and estimated cost of some 40 man Roster Players Cost and Benefits, the Sox are committed to about 151 million for 2020.

Edited October 1, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

I think Sox Ownership wants him to Opt out, or hopes he does.

 

Looks that way, doesn't it?

[OH FOY]

Too bad too, he was important to this Offense.

[notin]

I think Sox Ownership wants him to Opt out, or hopes he does.

Reason counting JD's 23.75 million, and estimated cost of some 40 man Roster Players Cost and Benefits, the Sox are committed to about 151 million for 2020.

 

If JD opting out means keeping Betts, is it a bad thing?

[OH FOY]

Here's something Seam McAdam said, Betts (30 million), JBJ, E-Rod, Benni, Workman, Barnes, will take the Sox over 200 million, and only represent about half of teams 25 man's projected Roster.

I keep saying 2021 is not going to be easy too, unless you unload now.

[moonslav59]

If JD opting out means keeping Betts, is it a bad thing?

 

Betts>> JD

 

We may end up losing both, but even if we could keep JD and Betts, if we reset, we'll be severely restricted in any other moves wanted or needed.

 

Losing JD will hurt big time, but it is what it is.

 

Call it a cliff. Call it a rebuild. Call it what you will. But it's time to pay for that 2018 ring.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts>> JD

 

We may end up losing both, but even if we could keep JD and Betts, if we reset, we'll be severely restricted in any other moves wanted or needed.

 

Losing JD will hurt big time, but it is what it is.

 

Call it a cliff. Call it a rebuild. Call it what you will.

 

I call it the economics of modern baseball. Even the richest teams can only afford to keep a very small number of elite players.

[moonslav59]

I call it the economics of modern baseball. Even the richest teams can only afford to keep a very small number of elite players.

 

Well put. Maybe they can have a few extra during a ring push, but expect some valleys in between.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is why you don’t dole out $30 mil per annum for a pitcher who isn’t healthy

[Kimmi]

He's will be woeth every penny for whomever has him - now within the Red Sox contract universe there are complications. But 26 year old superstars are not things big market teams should be dumping willy nilly. But Henry wants to cut costs - and he is the biggest controllable future cost. It's depressing to consider but he is clearly greasing the skids for it. In some ways this eventuality is a reason why I low key did not understand the Bogaerts extension.

 

The Red Sox should not take dumping Betts lightly, but they shouldn't take extending him to a 10 year deal lightly either, regardless of his age and super stardom. A contract like that will just end up putting a similar bind on the Sox in the future that they are currently in.

 

Personally, I think the Bogaerts extension was brilliant.

[Kimmi]

He'll opt out if they intend to trade him ... and I suspect the team and his agent will be somewhat open here. It'd be bad future business for the Red Sox to doublecross him.

 

Fair point. I hope the Sox will be forthright with JD about any plans to trade him.

[Kimmi]

If JD opting out means keeping Betts, is it a bad thing?

 

Possibly, if that also mean signing Betts to a ridiculous extension.

[TylerD]

Possibly, if that also mean signing Betts to a ridiculous extension.

 

I suggested letting everyone go and building around Porcello.

 

Nobody was on board with that lol

[Kimmi]

I suggested letting everyone go and building around Porcello.

 

Nobody was on board with that lol

 

LOL

 

I'm a Porcello fan. I am fully on board with bringing him back on a team friendly deal.

[TylerD]

LOL

 

I'm a Porcello fan. I am fully on board with bringing him back on a team friendly deal.

 

Me too

 

Shhhh, don't say that too loud lol. We are in the minority.

[moonslav59]

If we are going to reset, we will be scraping the walls to find a dollar here and a dollar there.

 

Is Porcello really someone we want in our short term or long term plans? Signing him, even to a team friendly deal, would almost certainly mean someone else goes or is not signed.

 

I'm not even sure we can afford $10M/2, and I seriously doubt he takes anywhere near that.

 

What offer are you thinking we can afford, and he'll take?

[S5Dewey]

Me too

 

Shhhh, don't say that too loud lol. We are in the minority.

 

That's three of us now.

[moonslav59]

That's three of us now.

 

Gives us your number.

 

It's easy to say, "I'd like Porcello back," but tell us what offer you'd make that he'd accept.

 

Then, show how we reset by offsetting his contract with a DFA or contract traded.

[Elktonnick]

That's three of us now.

 

Make that four.

[S5Dewey]

Gives us your number.

 

It's easy to say, "I'd like Porcello back," but tell us what offer you'd make that he'd accept.

 

Then, show how we reset by offsetting his contract with a DFA or contract traded.

 

That's kind of an irrational request since I don't know what he'd accept. I'd offer him a one year contract to try to rebuild his reputation for $10-$12M. Whether he'd accept it would be up to him.

 

I'd save that by taking the $5M we're not paying Pablo next year and adding in the $6.25M we're not paying Steve Pearce.

[jad]

That's kind of an irrational request since I don't know what he'd accept. I'd offer him a one year contract to try to rebuild his reputation for $10-$12M. Whether he'd accept it would be up to him.

 

I'd save that by taking the $5M we're not paying Pablo next year and adding in the $6.25M we're not paying Steve Pearce.

 

I don't know. But it seems to me if the thinking is "Sure. Porcello had a mediocre year. So he won't mind being punished with a one-year contract, worth half what he's making now" then you might as well plan to low-ball Mookie as well (who also will welcome the chance to 'rebuild his reputation'). I think it's far more likely RP and his agent think 'Damn! I'm a Cy Young winner, and I plan on being paid like one.' I.e., exactly what you and I would think if we were in the same (unimaginable!) position.