The JD opt out

[notin]

Yeah, why not first base and who wants him? are two very big questions in this discussion. I may be out of the loop a little, but I've never heard a beep about the first base possibility. And how does JD cut ties if he has no place in the AL to go??

 

Ah, one thought: First Base in the NL. That answers both questions. Any team in NL in need of a power-hitting first baseman?

 

Sure.

 

The Marlins, Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. The Reds do, too, but Votto isn't going anywhere...

[notin]

Your pitching sucked, but your offense allowed you to be a .500+ team. Removing JD's bat from your lineup will considerably drop your offensive output. He has helped the team in terms of his preparation and you lose a lot when the guy who you are styling off of goes elsewhere. My bet is he does opt out. He is 32 yrs old. This will be his last long term deal. He won't sniff the AAV he is getting, but he can get a bigger guarantee. He needs to consider this. Yes, he is set to make $20 mil on average for 3 yrs, until he is 35. How much does he think he can get at 35, assuming he isn't injured and unable to play? That is where he makes his bank. If he thinks he can make 8 figures when his deal ends, then that changes things. But at this stage, added years isn't as important as the overall guarantee. He will go where the most total guaranteed money is offered

 

He can also opt out at 33. This isn't his last chance...

[notin]

Your pitching sucked, but your offense allowed you to be a .500+ team. Removing JD's bat from your lineup will considerably drop your offensive output. He has helped the team in terms of his preparation and you lose a lot when the guy who you are styling off of goes elsewhere. My bet is he does opt out. He is 32 yrs old. This will be his last long term deal. He won't sniff the AAV he is getting, but he can get a bigger guarantee. He needs to consider this. Yes, he is set to make $20 mil on average for 3 yrs, until he is 35. How much does he think he can get at 35, assuming he isn't injured and unable to play? That is where he makes his bank. If he thinks he can make 8 figures when his deal ends, then that changes things. But at this stage, added years isn't as important as the overall guarantee. He will go where the most total guaranteed money is offered

 

By this logic, shouldn't Aroldis Chapman be opting out as well?

 

The Yankees have no rotation, and will be losing their bullpen anchor. Well, what are the chances of Ottavino falling back to Earth?

 

Chapman is 31, and can make $34.4 mill over the next two years if he doesn't opt out. But then he has to test the market again as a 33yo closer likely to see some of his only weapon - velocity - diminish by then. If he opts out now, certainly he can get a 3 year $45mill contract. Or 4 year $55 mill. Obviously that would suit him a lot better,

 

The only difference between the two situations is JD can opt out again next year is he wants to, which would make more sense since he'd be walking away from "only" $38.7 million instead of $62.5mill...

[TylerD]

An average year from them doesn’t improve your win total by 19 games, but I digress.

 

Porcello is gone, so don’t worry bout him. Sale is injured and before his injury he was diminished. Worse than that, he was routinely abused by the rivals in NY. Price lost a lot this year and has now missed major parts of two of the last three seasons due to arm ailments. He’s also 34. Expecting anything of value from those two isn’t realistic. If it happens, you take it, but expecting them to be great again is a good way to be let down

 

Thank you Dr Manhattan for predicting the future. Can you give me the lottery numbers as well?

[fxkatt]

Sure.

 

The Marlins, Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. The Reds do, too, but Votto isn't going anywhere...

 

Of those, I see the Giants offering him the most, and he would seem like a good fit there. And it seems to be that the earlier he opts out the better for him, both financially and personally (a little more secure salary, and more stability)

[Kimmi]

I don’t get the people who are excited for JD/Mookie to be gone. Those are two fantastic players and losing them instantly makes us way worse

 

I think the people who want JD and Mookie gone are looking for a complete rebuild, and they want it to happen as quickly as possible. They are willing to pass on next season to get it done. However, I don't see a rebuild of that magnitude happening. Henry won't allow it to happen.

 

I think both JD and Mookie will be on the Red Sox next year, as well as most of the rest of the team. I really don't see any major changes coming this offseason, provided the health news on Sale and Price is positive.

[Kimmi]

Thank you Dr Manhattan for predicting the future. Can you give me the lottery numbers as well?

 

I'm with you. The Red Sox will be fine.

[sk7326]

I think the people who want JD and Mookie gone are looking for a complete rebuild, and they want it to happen as quickly as possible. They are willing to pass on next season to get it done. However, I don't see a rebuild of that magnitude happening. Henry won't allow it to happen.

 

I think both JD and Mookie will be on the Red Sox next year, as well as most of the rest of the team. I really don't see any major changes coming this offseason, provided the health news on Sale and Price is positive.

 

I don't want to deal Betts - but that would be a direction change severe enough for Dombrowski and management to not see eye to eye on. The one thing I don't bet on is Henry's consistency.

[Carpin]

The thing with JD is - how many teams can really even sign him? I doubt an NL team wants him playing outfield full time. Is he willing to move positions to say 1B? Twins have Cruz, Yankees have a lot of injury prone guys and I'm sure don't want to commit to a full time DH in JD. Astros are pretty stacked all over the place, and I doubt teams like the Tigers, Royals, and Orioles, who are all rebuilding would make a move? I don't know, that is something else to consider.

 

What about the Angels? They have shared the DH position between Ohtani and Pujols, but Pujols has been playing 1B for almost 100 games this season and Ohtani can play the OF; they might rotate JD, Ohtani and Pujols between the DH, 1B and one OF spot, Calhoun is a FA this year that might happen.

 

The Angels are motivated, they want to take advantage of prime Trout and will try to go all the way, they have the cash and might get Maddon during the offseason, it's a long shot but you never know

[TylerD]

I think the people who want JD and Mookie gone are looking for a complete rebuild, and they want it to happen as quickly as possible. They are willing to pass on next season to get it done. However, I don't see a rebuild of that magnitude happening. Henry won't allow it to happen.

 

I think both JD and Mookie will be on the Red Sox next year, as well as most of the rest of the team. I really don't see any major changes coming this offseason, provided the health news on Sale and Price is positive.

 

Agreed Kimmi. Losing both would hurt for sure there is no doubt about that. But losing one and keeping the other we would be just fine. We were number one/two in Offense all year and finished top 5 near the end. Losing Martinez isn’t going to take us from first to worst. It just won’t happen. If Sale is healthy and can get back to somewhat of what he was, Eovaldi stays healthy, E Rod pitches like he did this year and we add another arm we will be a force again. Jackson yankee fan believes otherwise because he is a yankee fan and hopes we fail. He actually has zero clue of our future like the rest of us.

[notin]

Of those, I see the Giants offering him the most, and he would seem like a good fit there. And it seems to be that the earlier he opts out the better for him, both financially and personally (a little more secure salary, and more stability)

 

Of course they would have to unload Brandon Belt first..

[notin]

What about the Angels? They have shared the DH position between Ohtani and Pujols, but Pujols has been playing 1B for almost 100 games this season and Ohtani can play the OF; they might rotate JD, Ohtani and Pujols between the DH, 1B and one OF spot, Calhoun is a FA this year that might happen.

 

The Angels are motivated, they want to take advantage of prime Trout and will try to go all the way, they have the cash and might get Maddon during the offseason, it's a long shot but you never know

 

Yes they might completely forego outfield defense and put Upton and Ohtani/Martinez in the corners.

 

Of course their biggest need is pitching, which is probably where they will do their spending. That need will be magnified if they use that outfield alignment...

[Kimmi]

I don't want to deal Betts - but that would be a direction change severe enough for Dombrowski and management to not see eye to eye on. The one thing I don't bet on is Henry's consistency.

 

I don't necessarily want to deal Betts, but nor do I want to sign him to a massive long term deal. I would prefer the former option over the latter.

 

I agree with you on Henry's lack consistency. He tends to overreact.

[Kimmi]

Agreed Kimmi. Losing both would hurt for sure there is no doubt about that. But losing one and keeping the other we would be just fine. We were number one/two in Offense all year and finished top 5 near the end. Losing Martinez isn’t going to take us from first to worst. It just won’t happen. If Sale is healthy and can get back to somewhat of what he was, Eovaldi stays healthy, E Rod pitches like he did this year and we add another arm we will be a force again. Jackson yankee fan believes otherwise because he is a yankee fan and hopes we fail. He actually has zero clue of our future like the rest of us.

 

There is a lot of talent on the team. The poor pitching, leading to the poor W-L record was rather fluky, if you ask me. Regardless of what happens this offseason, I am willing to bet the Sox will be contenders next season.

[Kimmi]

Also, JD would be stupid to opt out.

[sk7326]

I don't necessarily want to deal Betts, but nor do I want to sign him to a massive long term deal. I would prefer the former option over the latter.

 

I agree with you on Henry's lack consistency. He tends to overreact.

 

He's will be woeth every penny for whomever has him - now within the Red Sox contract universe there are complications. But 26 year old superstars are not things big market teams should be dumping willy nilly. But Henry wants to cut costs - and he is the biggest controllable future cost. It's depressing to consider but he is clearly greasing the skids for it. In some ways this eventuality is a reason why I low key did not understand the Bogaerts extension.

[sk7326]

Also, JD would be stupid to opt out.

 

He'll opt out if they intend to trade him ... and I suspect the team and his agent will be somewhat open here. It'd be bad future business for the Red Sox to doublecross him.

[Bellhorn04]

He's will be woeth every penny for whomever has him - now within the Red Sox contract universe there are complications. But 26 year old superstars are not things big market teams should be dumping willy nilly. But Henry wants to cut costs - and he is the biggest controllable future cost. It's depressing to consider but he is clearly greasing the skids for it. In some ways this eventuality is a reason why I low key did not understand the Bogaerts extension.

 

The Bogaerts extension looks like a pretty good deal.

[sk7326]

The Bogaerts extension looks like a pretty good deal.

 

It IS a good deal - but if we are picking door number Bogaerts when the choice is Bogaerts v Betts (if it comes to that), yikes.

[Bellhorn04]

It IS a good deal - but if we are picking door number Bogaerts when the choice is Bogaerts v Betts (if it comes to that), yikes.

 

I can't see it being Bogey vs. Betts. Bogey got 120 mill. Betts must be thinking 300 mill or more - 2.5 times as much.

[Bellhorn04]

With Mookie, there is one slightly chilling scenario, which is that his intention is to go somewhere else no matter how much the Red Sox are willing to pay.

[Jasonbay44]

What about the Angels? They have shared the DH position between Ohtani and Pujols, but Pujols has been playing 1B for almost 100 games this season and Ohtani can play the OF; they might rotate JD, Ohtani and Pujols between the DH, 1B and one OF spot, Calhoun is a FA this year that might happen.

 

The Angels are motivated, they want to take advantage of prime Trout and will try to go all the way, they have the cash and might get Maddon during the offseason, it's a long shot but you never know

Don’t they still have Upton under contract? And all indications are they don’t want Ohtani playing in the field. They kind of need the DH spot for all those bad declining contracts they have.

[Michigan adam]

An average year from them doesn’t improve your win total by 19 games, but I digress.

 

Porcello is gone, so don’t worry bout him. Sale is injured and before his injury he was diminished. Worse than that, he was routinely abused by the rivals in NY. Price lost a lot this year and has now missed major parts of two of the last three seasons due to arm ailments. He’s also 34. Expecting anything of value from those two isn’t realistic. If it happens, you take it, but expecting them to be great again is a good way to be let down

 

My point was an average year this past year from those 3 would have added enough to be in the hunt. The offense ws virtually the same as previous years, it really was the big 3. Average years adds alot of innings and saves the pen. Rough calcs would have added 130 innings and saved roughly 88 runs against. Would have been the same as Yanks with 40 less runs scored. Would have been close to 100 wins. In that 95 to 105 range depending on how clutch they were.

[fxkatt]

"I think everyone knows we don't think they're going to be able to afford Mookie," Martinez told reporters Sunday. "It's one of those things. It's kind of hard to have three guys making $30 million on your team. He deserves it. He's earned it."

 

It sounds like Mookie is likely gone, because Martinez is a professional, and no loose opinion guy or twitter maniac.

[TylerD]

My point was an average year this past year from those 3 would have added enough to be in the hunt. The offense ws virtually the same as previous years, it really was the big 3. Average years adds alot of innings and saves the pen. Rough calcs would have added 130 innings and saved roughly 88 runs against. Would have been the same as Yanks with 40 less runs scored. Would have been close to 100 wins. In that 95 to 105 range depending on how clutch they were.

 

Don’t waste your breath. Jackson can post some intelligence, however his hate of the Red Sox blinds him half the time from making decent posts. Average pitching absolutely takes us to the playoffs. We missed by 12 games, and that seems worse than it is because we checked out completely the last month. Average pitching without a doubt wins us 12 more games to be in a wild card spot, and very good pitching like last year would grab us first place. Jackson thinks if we lose Martinez we go from a top 5 offense to bottom of the barrel (lmfao) and he also thinks if the pitching was better we still miss the playoffs. I give up on arguing with stupid comments.

[moonslav59]

Average pitching?

 

We had above average pitching by almost any measure.

 

Out of 30 teams, we ranked...

 

12th in WAR

 

13th in xFIP

 

14th in ERA-

 

14th in K/BB

 

20th in WHIP

 

Now, if you are talking about just Sale, Price and Porcello having a career norm season in 2019, instead of what they had, then yes, we'd have won way more games. It might be close to 12-13 more wins.

 

Sale: before 2019: 2.89 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 7 years)

Add 53 IP and 10 less ERs to his totals

 

Price before 2019: 3.25 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 9 years)

Add 83 IP and 21 more ERs

 

Porcello before 2019: 4.26 ERA (31 GS/186 IP last 10 years)

Add 12 IP and 19 less ERs.

 

Total:

+148 IP

- 8 ERs

 

That's very significant, because those 148 IP would be subtracted from most of our worst pitchers.

[TylerD]

Average pitching?

 

We had above average pitching by almost any measure.

 

Out of 30 teams, we ranked...

 

12th in WAR

 

13th in xFIP

 

14th in ERA-

 

14th in K/BB

 

20th in WHIP

 

Now, if you are talking about just Sale, Price and Porcello having a career norm season in 2019, instead of what they had, then yes, we'd have won way more games. It might be close to 12-13 more wins.

 

Sale: before 2019: 2.89 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 7 years)

Add 53 IP and 10 less ERs to his totals

 

Price before 2019: 3.25 ERA (30 GS/200 IP last 9 years)

Add 83 IP and 21 more ERs

 

Porcello before 2019: 4.26 ERA (31 GS/186 IP last 10 years)

Add 12 IP and 19 less ERs.

 

Total:

+148 IP

- 8 ERs

 

That's very significant, because those 148 IP would be subtracted from most of our worst pitchers.

 

That’s what I meant more less. The starting rotation could not stay healthy and Sale was not good this year, same with Porcello and Eovaldi when he eventually returned.

 

We found a closer. That is one thing I’ll say about this season and e Rod was Awesome

 

Chris Sale himself had 11 losses. Granted I know we didn’t always give him run support ,

But regardless. And then he got shut down. That’s our Ace

Edited October 1, 2019 by TylerD

[moonslav59]

That’s what I meant more less. The starting rotation could not stay healthy and Sale was not good this year, same with Porcello and Eovaldi when he eventually returned.

 

We found a closer. That is one thing I’ll say about this season and e Rod was Awesome

 

Chris Sale himself had 11 losses. Granted I know we didn’t always give him run support ,

But regardless. And then he got shut down. That’s our Ace

 

Including Eovaldi in the equation is problematic. His career norm is all over the map and includes much missed time similar to 2019.

[TylerD]

Including Eovaldi in the equation is problematic. His career norm is all over the map and includes much missed time similar to 2019.

 

Valid point

[notin]

He'll opt out if they intend to trade him ... and I suspect the team and his agent will be somewhat open here. It'd be bad future business for the Red Sox to doublecross him.

 

That’s speculation on both fronts.

 

JD likely loses money if he opts out this year. Being traded - which is not a doublecross - doesn’t change his earnings.

 

Boras has a reputation for being all about the money. Why would he advise his client to take less money?