The JD opt out

[notin]

mookie gets replaced by....mookie after next season.

 

In a truly bizarre scenario, if the Sox are without some combo of Bradley, Mookie and JD Martinez, it is entirely possible Rusney Castillo makes the MLB club next season. The Sox are paying him anyway, and the only real savings is on the luxury tax. If they are under the limit and there is no tax to pay, there is that much less of a reason to keep him in Pawtucket Purgatory. (I know it will be Worcester Purgatory next year, but I like alliteration.)

 

Of course, there is always the very real chance that he just flat out sucks, which would be a very real reason to keep him in AAA...

[moonslav59]

It starts with Henry wanting payroll to be below $208M when we had a payroll for luxury tax purposes of $240M or so.

 

Both Xander's and Sale's AAV will go up for 2020. If we extend Devers, our luxury tax payroll will also go up.

 

Hell, I want both to be back and sign some more free agent pitching. I doubt if I'll get my wish.

 

$208M is NOT a rumor.

 

No, but it's not set in stone.

 

I think we start the season with the idea of staying under, but if we look like we have a chance, we may trade for salary in July and reset the next winter.

[notin]

Maybe the injury label is gone because he DH'd so much.

 

I would think so. When you do less, you reduce the chances of injury. Unless all that time on the bench between at bats gave him hemorrhoids...

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather see Eovaldi gone. But the only way that happens is if someone equally cumbersome comes back. The Sox won the wrong bidding war there...

 

What was the other bidding war you're referring to?

[jacksonianmarch]

The only win for the Sox is a lower payroll. The team will be worse.

 

As for JD's payday, remember he only got 5 years at AAV 22 million when he was 2 years younger. Now he's 32.

 

He also isn't due $22 mil a year anymore. He got $23.75 mil for the first two seasons, so that's $47.5 mil. He gets a $2.5 mil kicker if he opts out. So he made $50 mil over 2 seasons. His final 3 seasons are in effect being paid out as a $60 mil total. If he stays, the $2.5 mil kicker is baked into his contract, but in effect, he has $50 mil in hand and an extra $60 mil over 3 years he can get. My bet is he thinks he can get another contract worth more than $60 mil. I bet he is right, but likely not at the AAV he is going for. I said before and I think I will say again. JD can probably get a 4 yr $75 mil deal from someone. Take that, add in the $50 mil he got from the sox and he is looking at 6 yrs and $125 mil. Not bad for a one way player

[notin]

It starts with Henry wanting payroll to be below $208M when we had a payroll for luxury tax purposes of $240M or so.

 

Both Xander's and Sale's AAV will go up for 2020. If we extend Devers, our luxury tax payroll will also go up.

 

Hell, I want both JD and Betts to be back and sign some more free agent pitchers. I doubt if I'll get my wish.

 

$208M is NOT a rumor.

 

Per sportrac, the Sox should have $56mill to spend before reching the $208mill limit. Out of that $56mill, they have to pay the arbitration raises for whoever they offer them to from Betts, Bradley, ERod, Benintendi, Barnes, Hembree, Wright, and Workman.

 

If JD opts out, that number climbs to $78million. If Betts, Erod, Benintendi, Barnes and Workman all get offered arb and come in around $50mill, they still have some room to spend and stay under. Just not much room if JD stays put...

Edited September 30, 2019 by notin

[notin]

He also isn't due $22 mil a year anymore. He got $23.75 mil for the first two seasons, so that's $47.5 mil. He gets a $2.5 mil kicker if he opts out. So he made $50 mil over 2 seasons. His final 3 seasons are in effect being paid out as a $60 mil total. If he stays, the $2.5 mil kicker is baked into his contract, but in effect, he has $50 mil in hand and an extra $60 mil over 3 years he can get. My bet is he thinks he can get another contract worth more than $60 mil. I bet he is right, but likely not at the AAV he is going for. I said before and I think I will say again. JD can probably get a 4 yr $75 mil deal from someone. Take that, add in the $50 mil he got from the sox and he is looking at 6 yrs and $125 mil. Not bad for a one way player

 

Of course, there is also the scenario that he opts out and signs a longer, lower AAV contract back with Boston. Who else would need a DH more? If he opts out and signs, say, a 4 year $75mill contract with the Red Sox, the Sox gain about $3.25mill more in AAV towards to luxury tax.

 

And that is assuming the Sox have to go that high. A 4 year $65mill contract gives JD more guaranteed money than he currently has coming, and lowers to Sox AAV calculation by $5.75mill. It's a win-win for a player who struggled with expected offers last time he was a free agent..

Edited September 30, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Of course, there is also the scenario that he opts out and signs a longer, lower AAV contract back with Boston. Who else would need a DH more? If he opts out and signs, say, a 4 year $75mill contract with the Red Sox, the Sox gain about $3.25mill more in AAV towards to luxury tax...

 

If he does opt out, don't forget, they also get whacked for a bigger tax bill for 2018.

[Slasher9]

If they can keep him and achieve their financial goal, whatever it is, they should.

 

If JD opts out or gets traded, it is that much easier to keep Mookie and reset...

 

i'm willing to throw 2020 away for the Reset + the prospects he would get us. even if we can trade JD as well. i'll take any prospects i can get right now to restock and prepare for a quick turnaround in 2021.

[jacksonianmarch]

i'm willing to throw 2020 away for the Reset + the prospects he would get us. even if we can trade JD as well. i'll take any prospects i can get right now to restock and prepare for a quick turnaround in 2021.

 

This isn't a quick turnaround. A rebuild entails using your farm and other prospects. Your farm is scorched earth, salted and dead. You need to draft well, sign well, develop well, and trade well. If you don't commit to a rebuild, then the process will be far longer. I think Henry is struggling with the idea of cutting payroll and rebuilding or giving it one last college try with this team

[Slasher9]

This isn't a quick turnaround.

yes. it is a quick turnaround. 1 year. to me that is "quick".

[jacksonianmarch]

yes. it is a quick turnaround. 1 year. to me that is "quick".

 

Forever the optimist. With the salaries on the books and the fact that only one long term deal looks positive (Xander) and there are no reinforcements in the wings, how in god's name can you think this is a rapid turnaround?

[notin]

What was the other bidding war you're referring to?

 

I wasn't but if you want another bidding war they won that they would have been better of losing, fill in the blanks: R_sney Ca_ti_lo...

[notin]

i'm willing to throw 2020 away for the Reset + the prospects he would get us. even if we can trade JD as well. i'll take any prospects i can get right now to restock and prepare for a quick turnaround in 2021.

 

I'm not. Rebuilding sucks are rarely works...

[TylerD]

He gave us an incredible year in 2018, and no matter how good a player is.... if he doesn’t want to play for us anymore then I don’t want him. Simple as that. If he wants to go to another team then let him, Offense wasn’t The problem. If we didn’t have him this year we still would have been fine on the offensive side of things. Pitching is what the problem is.

 

If we lose a guy like E Rod then I will panic.

[jacksonianmarch]

He gave us an incredible year in 2018, and no matter how good a player is.... if he doesn’t want to play for us anymore then I don’t want him. Simple as that. If he wants to go to another team then let him, Offense wasn’t The problem. If we didn’t have him this year we still would have been fine on the offensive side of things. Pitching is what the problem is.

 

If we lose a guy like E Rod then I will panic.

 

Your pitching sucked, but your offense allowed you to be a .500+ team. Removing JD's bat from your lineup will considerably drop your offensive output. He has helped the team in terms of his preparation and you lose a lot when the guy who you are styling off of goes elsewhere. My bet is he does opt out. He is 32 yrs old. This will be his last long term deal. He won't sniff the AAV he is getting, but he can get a bigger guarantee. He needs to consider this. Yes, he is set to make $20 mil on average for 3 yrs, until he is 35. How much does he think he can get at 35, assuming he isn't injured and unable to play? That is where he makes his bank. If he thinks he can make 8 figures when his deal ends, then that changes things. But at this stage, added years isn't as important as the overall guarantee. He will go where the most total guaranteed money is offered

[Bellhorn04]

Your pitching sucked, but your offense allowed you to be a .500+ team. Removing JD's bat from your lineup will considerably drop your offensive output. He has helped the team in terms of his preparation and you lose a lot when the guy who you are styling off of goes elsewhere. My bet is he does opt out. He is 32 yrs old. This will be his last long term deal. He won't sniff the AAV he is getting, but he can get a bigger guarantee. He needs to consider this. Yes, he is set to make $20 mil on average for 3 yrs, until he is 35. How much does he think he can get at 35, assuming he isn't injured and unable to play? That is where he makes his bank. If he thinks he can make 8 figures when his deal ends, then that changes things. But at this stage, added years isn't as important as the overall guarantee. He will go where the most total guaranteed money is offered

 

He can opt out after next year too...

[moonslav59]

Forever the optimist. With the salaries on the books and the fact that only one long term deal looks positive (Xander) and there are no reinforcements in the wings, how in god's name can you think this is a rapid turnaround?

 

By spending big again after 2020, and by picking up some good young players, in trade, for JD and JBJ- maybe Barnes. Keeping Betts.

 

A core of Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni, Erod, Vaz plus maybe some health luck from Price and/or Sale is not a bad foundation.

[Michigan adam]

Given the goal of $208,. I think JD opting out will essentially allow sox to keep their team intact as they see fit and even add a little. He would add huge flexibility. Given his age, that is not a bad thing. Pedroia at DH full time to get something out of that salary?

[Carpin]

Of course, there is also the scenario that he opts out and signs a longer, lower AAV contract back with Boston. Who else would need a DH more? If he opts out and signs, say, a 4 year $75mill contract with the Red Sox, the Sox gain about $3.25mill more in AAV towards to luxury tax.

 

And that is assuming the Sox have to go that high. A 4 year $65mill contract gives JD more guaranteed money than he currently has coming, and lowers to Sox AAV calculation by $5.75mill. It's a win-win for a player who struggled with expected offers last time he was a free agent..

 

With this proposal he will be signing a 4th year for 5 Mill, the Sox are the only part in this deal getting something

[Michigan adam]

Your pitching sucked, but your offense allowed you to be a .500+ team. Removing JD's bat from your lineup will considerably drop your offensive output. He has helped the team in terms of his preparation and you lose a lot when the guy who you are styling off of goes elsewhere. My bet is he does opt out. He is 32 yrs old. This will be his last long term deal. He won't sniff the AAV he is getting, but he can get a bigger guarantee. He needs to consider this. Yes, he is set to make $20 mil on average for 3 yrs, until he is 35. How much does he think he can get at 35, assuming he isn't injured and unable to play? That is where he makes his bank. If he thinks he can make 8 figures when his deal ends, then that changes things. But at this stage, added years isn't as important as the overall guarantee. He will go where the most total guaranteed money is offered

 

Our pitching sucked, but Our starting pitchers do not suck. We just had a strange off year with our big 3 of Sale, Price, and Porcello. Even an average year from them and they are back near the top.

[jacksonianmarch]

An average year from them doesn’t improve your win total by 19 games, but I digress.

 

Porcello is gone, so don’t worry bout him. Sale is injured and before his injury he was diminished. Worse than that, he was routinely abused by the rivals in NY. Price lost a lot this year and has now missed major parts of two of the last three seasons due to arm ailments. He’s also 34. Expecting anything of value from those two isn’t realistic. If it happens, you take it, but expecting them to be great again is a good way to be let down

[illinoisredsox]

Given the goal of $208,. I think JD opting out will essentially allow sox to keep their team intact as they see fit and even add a little. He would add huge flexibility. Given his age, that is not a bad thing. Pedroia at DH full time to get something out of that salary?

 

Pedroia is hoping to avoid a knee replacement and/or be able to do everyday things; he’s never going to play again.

[TylerD]

Your pitching sucked, but your offense allowed you to be a .500+ team. Removing JD's bat from your lineup will considerably drop your offensive output. He has helped the team in terms of his preparation and you lose a lot when the guy who you are styling off of goes elsewhere. My bet is he does opt out. He is 32 yrs old. This will be his last long term deal. He won't sniff the AAV he is getting, but he can get a bigger guarantee. He needs to consider this. Yes, he is set to make $20 mil on average for 3 yrs, until he is 35. How much does he think he can get at 35, assuming he isn't injured and unable to play? That is where he makes his bank. If he thinks he can make 8 figures when his deal ends, then that changes things. But at this stage, added years isn't as important as the overall guarantee. He will go where the most total guaranteed money is offered

 

No it won’t. We will be fine. We need pitching. I don’t want to lose him but it won’t be the end all be all for this team.

[Jasonbay44]

It's almost comical how many people are acting as if JD Martinez wouldn't be a huge loss for this team. JD may only be a DH, but his bat is one of the best and most dangerous in the league. I also keep seeing comments that are implying JD was bad, I mean he did regress.. but lets not act like he didn't slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 homers and 104 RBI. Who is going to replace his production? If we are letting him go its most likely to save money, so it'll likely be someone s***** from free agency or someone s***** in our system. You guys prepared for a Gorkys Hernandez or Curtis Granderson level DH?

[Jasonbay44]

The thing with JD is - how many teams can really even sign him? I doubt an NL team wants him playing outfield full time. Is he willing to move positions to say 1B? Twins have Cruz, Yankees have a lot of injury prone guys and I'm sure don't want to commit to a full time DH in JD. Astros are pretty stacked all over the place, and I doubt teams like the Tigers, Royals, and Orioles, who are all rebuilding would make a move? I don't know, that is something else to consider.

[Slasher9]

It's almost comical how many people are acting as if JD Martinez wouldn't be a huge loss for this team. JD may only be a DH, but his bat is one of the best and most dangerous in the league. I also keep seeing comments that are implying JD was bad, I mean he did regress.. but lets not act like he didn't slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 homers and 104 RBI. Who is going to replace his production? If we are letting him go its most likely to save money, so it'll likely be someone s***** from free agency or someone s***** in our system. You guys prepared for a Gorkys Hernandez or Curtis Granderson level DH?

 

honestly i am just sick and tired of the sucking thumb/touching chest before every pitch. it creeps me out. i would rather have the $22MM and you hitting DH.....

[Slasher9]

The thing with JD is - how many teams can really even sign him? I doubt an NL team wants him playing outfield full time. Is he willing to move positions to say 1B? Twins have Cruz, Yankees have a lot of injury prone guys and I'm sure don't want to commit to a full time DH in JD. Astros are pretty stacked all over the place, and I doubt teams like the Tigers, Royals, and Orioles, who are all rebuilding would make a move? I don't know, that is something else to consider.

 

i honestly cant believe that WTF didnt have him working on 1b this past preseason. if JD doesnt opt out it will be further negligence if they dont have him converted by game 1 of 162 next year.

[fxkatt]

Yeah, why not first base and who wants him? are two very big questions in this discussion. I may be out of the loop a little, but I've never heard a beep about the first base possibility. And how does JD cut ties if he has no place in the AL to go??

 

Ah, one thought: First Base in the NL. That answers both questions. Any team in NL in need of a power-hitting first baseman?

[notin]

With this proposal he will be signing a 4th year for 5 Mill, the Sox are the only part in this deal getting something

 

Well that would be on him for opting out. What do you see a 32yo DH getting as a free agent and from who?

 

The higher spenders in the AL all have DH's under control for next season, and while JD would be an upgrade for Houston over, say, Gurriel, they also recently took on Greinke's salary and might not have the budget. The rebuilding teams are not going to build around a DH, except maybe the White Sox. Although all indications are they plan to re-sign Abreu.

 

And that leaves the NL, where the DH is coming, possibly in 2022.

 

The market was not as kind to Martinez a hoped for last time., and now he is 2 years older. I doubt he opts out until after 2020 when his salary drops. He stands less to lose...