Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[jacksonianmarch]

So now that DD is gone, I think the writing is on the wall for Betts. I think the likelihood is he is dealt. But heck, I could be wrong. A lot will be determined by the type of GM acquired to run the show. If you get someone from a smaller market, then the likelihood is that you're rebuilding.

 

Previously, I threw out the idea that the Sox trade with the Mets to get some pitching plus Nimmo in the OF. With the fact that DD is gone, I think the sox will shoot lower in terms of level but higher in terms of upside. Maybe a 1 for 5 and get at least one premium prospect with the other 4 having big league upsides. The suitor list will be long and the fact that Betts is on a 1 yr deal should make it better for those who would be scared away by his pricetag. One team who is a dark horse for Betts is the Reds. They made some deals with the intent of being contenders next year. With Bauer on his last year and all the talent they brought in, I wouldn't be surprised to see them offer something big. Heck, maybe you get Hunter Greene coming off TJS plus others for him? With Puig gone, they will need OFers

[notin]

It's too early to tell.

 

There are pros and cons to both scenarios, and i think i will have a slightly clearer picture when some front office dust settles. If the Sox bring in some farm-building type, he is probably gone. But until we know who is running the team.

 

The Sox do still have a strong lineup core in Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, and Benintendi, and are not likely to find taked for Price, Sale and Eovaldi. They might keep Betts, hope 2020 works out better, and then re-sign him. But it also depends on what one year of an MVP is worth to other teams, as well..

[Bellhorn04]

There are actually 4 scenarios:

 

1) Extend this offseason.

2) Trade this offseason.

3) Trade at deadline.

4) Keep and try to re-sign as free agent.

[notin]

There are actually 4 scenarios:

 

1) Extend this offseason.

2) Trade this offseason.

3) Trade at deadline.

4) Keep and try to re-sign as free agent.

 

1) is unlikely, but we can't deny it exists.

3) means less in return, as it is just straight up Mookie for a half season. Dealing him this off-season means the Sox can get more back, as they are dealing Mookie and a draft pick when he rejects to QO.

 

If you're going to deal Betts, do it right.

[dgalehouse]

I think the Sox have to make every effort to retain Betts . He is a special player . A true five tool player . A franchise player . It will cost plenty , but sometimes you just have to do it .

[Bellhorn04]

3) means less in return, as it is just straight up Mookie for a half season. Dealing him this off-season means the Sox can get more back, as they are dealing Mookie and a draft pick when he rejects to QO.

 

But is that guaranteed?

 

The Orioles are not exactly a model organization these days, but I have to think they had some legitimate reasons for dealing Machado at the deadline instead of in the offseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

They were delirious enough to think they were competing. This was coming off the signings of Cobb and Cashner

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the Reds are your target. They also have some really solid prospects with Greene, Lodolo and India. I’d call them on Nov 1 and ask for 2 of the 3.

[Slasher9]

There are actually 4 scenarios:

 

1) Extend this offseason.

2) Trade this offseason.

3) Trade at deadline.

4) Keep and try to re-sign as free agent.

 

2..

[notin]

But is that guaranteed?

 

The Orioles are not exactly a model organization these days, but I have to think they had some legitimate reasons for dealing Machado at the deadline instead of in the offseason.

 

They tried to deal Macado before the season, but apparently did not get any offers they liked It is possible they wanted the moon plus. Reportedly, Dombrowski was trying to acquire him, no idea with what.

 

They didn't do so bad at the deadline, and while they got 4 players all ranked in their top 26 by Fangraphs, only one had a FV above 45, and that was Yusniel Diaz (their #2) at 50...

[notin]

I think the Reds are your target. They also have some really solid prospects with Greene, Lodolo and India. I’d call them on Nov 1 and ask for 2 of the 3.

 

But can the Reds squeeze a $25mill salary?

 

They would certainly like to move India, as they are loaded at 3B.

 

If they Sox do move Betts, the Dodgers are another prime option, especially if they lose their 3rd straight WS this year, or don't make it that far at all. That would make them an organization with a sense of urgency and desperation...

[moonslav59]

There are actually 4 scenarios:

 

1) Extend this offseason.

2) Trade this offseason.

3) Trade at deadline.

4) Keep and try to re-sign as free agent.

 

The worst is: keep, don't sign and just get a comp pick.

[moonslav59]

If we reset, and more and more people are starting to think 2020 will be the year, then we need to decide between 2 choices:

 

1) Extend or sign Betts as part of the long term rebuild.

 

2) Trade this winter for young and near MLB talent as part of a 2-3 year rebuild plan.

 

If the answer is #2, then others should be dealt, too. Everyone not under team control of in our long term plans beyond 2021 or 2022. (Basically, only Devers, Bogey and Beni would be lock keepers, not counting kids like DHern.)

[notin]

If we reset, and more and more people are starting to think 2020 will be the year, then we need to decide between 2 choices:

 

1) Extend or sign Betts as part of the long term rebuild.

 

2) Trade this winter for young and near MLB talent as part of a 2-3 year rebuild plan.

 

If the answer is #2, then others should be dealt, too. Everyone not under team control of in our long term plans beyond 2021 or 2022. (Basically, only Devers, Bogey and Beni would be lock keepers, not counting kids like DHern.)

 

Or plan 3.

 

Trade Betts this offseason and reset. Bring Mookie back after 2020 and continue like before, but without the exploding pitching staff..

[moonslav59]

Or plan 3.

 

Trade Betts this offseason and reset. Bring Mookie back after 2020 and continue like before, but without the exploding pitching staff..

 

I'd love that and wanted that with Lester and Andrew Miller, but it may be a long shot.

 

If we do trade Betts with the idea of spending big in 2021 and getting competitive again really quick, then we might as well trade a bunch of other players, too. Even ones we may re-sign in 2021 or 2022.

[jacksonianmarch]

Going halfway is a waste. All it does is ensure you stay in the middle and remain mediocre. Any GM coming in needs to have a 3 year plan. After 3 seasons, Price, Pedroia, and Eovaldi are up. The expanded cash at that point should allow better acquisitions and presumably your farm will be better.

 

If I was Henry, I’d sell off the short term parts that have value and add in some of the financial advantage

 

JD plus money to another AL club for a true prospect

 

ERod for a haul

 

Betts for a haul

 

Hope that Price or Sale recoup value next year and deal at deadline with cash

 

I’d also trade Beni.

 

Build around Xander and Devers

[moonslav59]

Going halfway is a waste. All it does is ensure you stay in the middle and remain mediocre. Any GM coming in needs to have a 3 year plan. After 3 seasons, Price, Pedroia, and Eovaldi are up. The expanded cash at that point should allow better acquisitions and presumably your farm will be better.

 

If I was Henry, I’d sell off the short term parts that have value and add in some of the financial advantage

 

JD plus money to another AL club for a true prospect

 

ERod for a haul

 

Betts for a haul

 

Hope that Price or Sale recoup value next year and deal at deadline with cash

 

I’d also trade Beni.

 

Build around Xander and Devers

 

You know, after we traded away our whole rotation, I used the words "halfway" in my opinion. They traded Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy & Miller not really for prospects, but for ML players or near ML ready players. I thought they should have gone for top prospects.

 

We won in 2013.

 

There are more ways to win that just the "Yankee Model," and besides, the Yanks have not won jack since their big fire sale.

[moonslav59]

Going halfway is a waste. All it does is ensure you stay in the middle and remain mediocre. Any GM coming in needs to have a 3 year plan. After 3 seasons, Price, Pedroia, and Eovaldi are up. The expanded cash at that point should allow better acquisitions and presumably your farm will be better.

 

If I was Henry, I’d sell off the short term parts that have value and add in some of the financial advantage

 

JD plus money to another AL club for a true prospect

 

ERod for a haul

 

Betts for a haul

 

Hope that Price or Sale recoup value next year and deal at deadline with cash

 

I’d also trade Beni.

 

Build around Xander and Devers

 

If we trade Betts, we might as well trade everyone you mentioned. I'm not against that plan, especially, if we try to sign Betts after 2021. Talk to him. Do him a "favor" by trading him on the second day of the season to knock off the QO and penalty attached. Maybe, he'll remember the favor and return.

[jacksonianmarch]

They won a title in 13 mostly by sheer luck as the same roster faded into two last place finishes. You can’t hope for sheer luck. You need to rebuild with actual future talent. No Allan Craig and Joe Kelly.

[jacksonianmarch]

If we trade Betts, we might as well trade everyone you mentioned. I'm not against that plan, especially, if we try to sign Betts after 2021. Talk to him. Do him a "favor" by trading him on the second day of the season to knock off the QO and penalty attached. Maybe, he'll remember the favor and return.

 

The other thing you need to consider is body type. These quick twitch smaller players usually don’t age well. I don’t extend Betts at all. I also don’t go after him on the FA market

[S5Dewey]

If we trade Betts, we might as well trade everyone you mentioned. I'm not against that plan, especially, if we try to sign Betts after 2021. Talk to him. Do him a "favor" by trading him on the second day of the season to knock off the QO and penalty attached. Maybe, he'll remember the favor and return.

 

I find that approach to be nothing more than grasping at straws. I'm sure that there are a few players whom nobody wanted anyway who were reaquired by doing that but once the truly elite players hit FA you've lost whatever little leverage you ever had with them and you can kiss them goodbye.

 

Nobody ever did anyone any more of a favor than the Red Sox did for Jon Lester when the Sox made all their resources available to him in his bout with cancer... and look how that turned out. I'm not saying that I expected Lester to return to the Sox after that... I'm just saying favors don't go far in the world of professional baseball.

[cp176]

What I find very interesting is that Betts is referred to as a once in a generation player thus he should be signed. He is very very good we all know that. I consider Chris Sale a once in a generation pitcher. He gets injured and all of sudden people are ready to trade him away if possible. I'm glad that he was locked up long term. We got our moneys worth from him before and we will get our moneys worth from him again.

[notin]

Going halfway is a waste. All it does is ensure you stay in the middle and remain mediocre. Any GM coming in needs to have a 3 year plan. After 3 seasons, Price, Pedroia, and Eovaldi are up. The expanded cash at that point should allow better acquisitions and presumably your farm will be better.

 

If I was Henry, I’d sell off the short term parts that have value and add in some of the financial advantage

 

JD plus money to another AL club for a true prospect

 

ERod for a haul

 

Betts for a haul

 

Hope that Price or Sale recoup value next year and deal at deadline with cash

 

I’d also trade Beni.

 

Build around Xander and Devers

 

No that’s not what you would do if you were John Henry. That’s what you would do if you were Jeff Loria...

[notin]

If we trade Betts, we might as well trade everyone you mentioned. I'm not against that plan, especially, if we try to sign Betts after 2021. Talk to him. Do him a "favor" by trading him on the second day of the season to knock off the QO and penalty attached. Maybe, he'll remember the favor and return.

 

Trading Betts on the second day is the same as trading him at the deadline. The loss of the draft pick does affect what you get back. (And if you want to sign him back, why would you do Mookie a “favor” that makes him more appealing to more teams?)

 

And the Sox have made Mookie a very wealthy man already, which is the only favor he has expressed interest in. If the Sox want him back, highest bidder is the only way. Mookie didn’t hire an agent so he could return favors with his career.

[notin]

What I find very interesting is that Betts is referred to as a once in a generation player thus he should be signed. He is very very good we all know that. I consider Chris Sale a once in a generation pitcher. He gets injured and all of sudden people are ready to trade him away if possible. I'm glad that he was locked up long term. We got our moneys worth from him before and we will get our moneys worth from him again.

 

1) Betts is younger and uninjured.

 

2) Sale isn’t getting traded. No one trades for injured pitchers who are still owed $100mill+

[vegasbob]

I understand the fan side of wanting to keep Betts through 2020 and then resign him. He , however, has made it fairly clear including again last night that he is going to test the FA market. Just accept that and move his little butt along this winter . 2020 is already a long shot season since the pitching is as unpredictable as can be, and none of the recent Pawtucket grads appear to be a natural starting pitcher. Then in 2021 they can go nuts trying to resign him after observing his walk season. Assume Mookie gets you one 30 -33 game starter taking Porcellos place a young OF'er and 1 or 2 AAA real prospects . What's to lose. Mookie will not love him some Fenway anymore or less in 2021 because he will be Show Me The Money all day. It gives the Sox one more year to figure out how to deal with the tsunami of potential dead money deals that Price, Sale, EO could become, while still paying Pedey .

 

I truly don't get the concern about keeping Mookie. We have a serious disaster in the starting ranks. Compete for a WC next year but with a few new faces.

[moonslav59]

They won a title in 13 mostly by sheer luck as the same roster faded into two last place finishes. You can’t hope for sheer luck. You need to rebuild with actual future talent. No Allan Craig and Joe Kelly.

 

I disagree. Contrary to the mush stated nonsense, everyone did not have "career years" in 2013.

 

When we signed Vic, almost everyone said 3 years was too long. We knew 2013 was it.

 

When we signed Napoli, we reworked the deal due to his health issue and got him for one year. 2013. (Yes, we signed him again, but 2013 was not all luck.

 

To me, 2014 and 2015 were more bad luck than 2013 was good, plus2012 was on Bobby V.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Anyone saying trade Mookie is Delusional .The man is the face of this organization .We will extend Mookie and we will jettison Price or sale to do it booooook it Yankee troll.

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone saying trade Mookie is Delusional .The man is the face of this organization .We will extend Mookie and we will jettison Price or sale to do it booooook it Yankee troll.

 

The chances of Mookie signing an extension now are close to nonexistent. Did you read his comments in response to DD being fired?

[notin]

The chances of Mookie signing an extension now are close to nonexistent. Did you read his comments in response to DD being fired?

 

Or his comments for the last 3 seasons.

 

Mookie is not getting extended. He might re-sign with the Sox, but not until he has tested free agency...