A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I've seen large hauls go to 2 month rentals not as good as Betts.

 

That's reality, too.

 

Yes, but that is a risk you take by waiting. Sometimes, those team's don't arise. The O's waited and it just so happened that a WS contender's SS blew out his arm

[notin]

Harper = Betts - hm

 

You’re kidding, right? He’s still one of the best players in the league, a former MVP and, surprisingly has been a better hitter than Betts. From 2015-2018, Harper’s OPS+ was 150. During that same timeframe, Betts’ was 134.

 

And while Betts is poised to enter his prime years, Harper is as well. Harper is 9 days younger...

[Bellhorn04]

You’re kidding, right? He’s still one of the best players in the league, a former MVP and, surprisingly has been a better hitter than Betts. From 2015-2018, Harper’s OPS+ was 150. During that same timeframe, Betts’ was 134.

 

And while Betts is poised to enter his prime years, Harper is as well. Harper is 9 days younger...

 

Should be comparing WAR though. That's what it's good for!

[notin]

Yes, but that is a risk you take by waiting. Sometimes, those team's don't arise. The O's waited and it just so happened that a WS contender's SS blew out his arm

 

So you’re saying no one wanted the 25 year old mega star until there was an injury?

[notin]

Should be comparing WAR though. That's what it's good for!

 

I was only talking about hitting. Mookie is a better fielder.

 

That someone thought the two situations were not comparable is the bigger joke there. Both teams had superstar former MVP right fielders the same age, and actually they were arguably the two best right fielders in the game.

 

The Nats lost Harper for nothing and still won a title. The Red Sox are faced with losing Betts, and to many this is a clear white flag...

Edited January 6, 2020 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

I did not say that.

 

I said that the O’s got lucky that Seager blew out his elbow and the Dodgers finally met their asking price. If Seager doesn’t get hurt, the package the O’s got would have been smaller or the O’s would have allowed him to get to FA

[Bellhorn04]

I did not say that.

 

I said that the O’s got lucky that Seager blew out his elbow and the Dodgers finally met their asking price. If Seager doesn’t get hurt, the package the O’s got would have been smaller or the O’s would have allowed him to get to FA

 

There are a lot of variables though.

 

Right now the offers for Betts are impacted by his projected 27.5 million salary. At the deadline the other team only has to pay 9.2 million and they get him for the stretch run and the playoffs. That can enhance what they're willing to give up.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but that is a risk you take by waiting. Sometimes, those team's don't arise. The O's waited and it just so happened that a WS contender's SS blew out his arm

 

My point wasn't about waiting until July. It was about the "reality" that 6 months of Betts could net a top 10 prospect, since 2 month rentals have in the past.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, but you either need to find a huckleberry or a desperate team. Nobody is desperate now and with analytics there are less huckleberries than there used to be. You need to hope for a major OF injury or a massive underperformance to create a desperation market for Betts. Desperation prompts overpays

[notin]

Yes, but you either need to find a huckleberry or a desperate team. Nobody is desperate now and with analytics there are less huckleberries than there used to be. You need to hope for a major OF injury or a massive underperformance to create a desperation market for Betts. Desperation prompts overpays

 

Or a team where Betts represents an upgrade in RF. This does limit the Sox’ options to only 29 other teams...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but you either need to find a huckleberry or a desperate team. Nobody is desperate now and with analytics there are less huckleberries than there used to be. You need to hope for a major OF injury or a massive underperformance to create a desperation market for Betts. Desperation prompts overpays

 

OK, I think that's enough use of the term "huckleberry" for 2020.

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers are desperate to win a ring and are out star hunting.

 

The Padres and other teams were reportedly in on making some big FA signings, but missed out. I think some plan Bs might be opening up, soon.

Edited January 6, 2020 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I bet they are, but Betts' market is limited to what teams are willing to pay. Overpays rarely happen in January unless one party is overly motivated. I always doubted SD's willingness to enter the fray. They have some stupid big contracts on the books and their farm is on the cusp of producing big league pitching. Once they see where their pitching is at, I expect them to start cashing in that farm. But I would expect them to cash in on the pitching side right now. Maybe if Gore and others reach ace status, then they shift to position players

[Slasher9]

Mookies projected arb cost doesnt prevent any team for trading for him. the 1 year ticket bump/jersey sales will cover that.

ok, maybe tampa bay would be the one team.

the only thing preventing the other teams is how much they are willing to give up for him in prospects.

[notin]

I bet they are, but Betts' market is limited to what teams are willing to pay. Overpays rarely happen in January unless one party is overly motivated. I always doubted SD's willingness to enter the fray. They have some stupid big contracts on the books and their farm is on the cusp of producing big league pitching. Once they see where their pitching is at, I expect them to start cashing in that farm. But I would expect them to cash in on the pitching side right now. Maybe if Gore and others reach ace status, then they shift to position players

 

That really depends on what you consider an overpay. Was Kluber an overpay or underpay? Shelby Miller was a notorious overpay.

[harmony]

The Dodgers are desperate to win a ring and are out star hunting.

 

The Padres and other teams were reportedly in on making some big FA signings, but missed out. I think some plan Bs might be opening up, soon.

"Desperate" may be the most overused term of the offseason.

 

But if the term must be used, the Red Sox may be most fitting because the Sox face the most intense luxury tax pressures while trying to improve on an 84-win team that finished 12 games back of the second Wild Card slot.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookies projected arb cost doesnt prevent any team for trading for him. the 1 year ticket bump/jersey sales will cover that.

ok, maybe tampa bay would be the one team.

the only thing preventing the other teams is how much they are willing to give up for him in prospects.

 

It's the cost plus only one year of control.

 

Check me if I'm wrong, but he would be by far the most expensive 1 year rental in history.

 

It's been widely reported that the salary cost is a major hindrance to other teams' interest.

[Bellhorn04]

The list of teams that would have any interest in trading for Mookie has to be extremely short. It's just a pile to give up for a one year rental. And as notin keeps pointing out, how much of a difference can one player make to a team for one year?

[Slasher9]

And as notin keeps pointing out, how much of a difference can one player make to a team for one year?

 

dont you both very much adhere to WAR? i guess your answer would be 7-10 wins?

obviously it would need to be a team that thinks they have a shot in 2020. my original point was that the 1 year "rental money" isn't really the deciding factor. it's a contract that basically pays for itself. the deciding factor is the prospects they would be willing to give up in addition to the cash they have to pay betts. we have all seen up close and personal that a team can get both prospects & salary relief in return for a player.

does Mookie turn a 70 win Padres team into a contender? probably not. but if Preller did the trade would it hurt Prowlers checkbook in the end? nope. and prowler is on record saying "2019 was embarrassing and heads will roll if his team doesnt win in 2020". so to say SDP is "not in play" for betts is wrong (IMO).

[notin]

The list of teams that would have any interest in trading for Mookie has to be extremely short. It's just a pile to give up for a one year rental. And as notin keeps pointing out, how much of a difference can one player make to a team for one year?

 

Notin never said that. I said some people might be overvaluing the right to pay Mookie $30mil for one year.

 

I have also said the Sox can be good without him, because I have faith in Bogaerts, Devers, Rodriguez, Martinez, Sale, etc...

[notin]

dont you both very much adhere to WAR? i guess your answer would be 7-10 wins?

obviously it would need to be a team that thinks they have a shot in 2020. my original point was that the 1 year "rental money" isn't really the deciding factor. it's a contract that basically pays for itself. the deciding factor is the prospects they would be willing to give up in addition to the cash they have to pay betts. we have all seen up close and personal that a team can get both prospects & salary relief in return for a player.

does Mookie turn a 70 win Padres team into a contender? probably not. but if Preller did the trade would it hurt Prowlers checkbook in the end? nope. and prowler is on record saying "2019 was embarrassing and heads will roll if his team doesnt win in 2020". so to say SDP is "not in play" for betts is wrong (IMO).

 

 

For years, I have been pointing out that every team will win between 40% and 60% of their games, and the few that don’t do not miss this range by much.

 

Could Mookie make the 70 win Padres a title contender? No but he could be a big part of a turnaround that does. Worst-to-first isn’t the anomaly it used to be...

[moonslav59]

I bet they are, but Betts' market is limited to what teams are willing to pay. Overpays rarely happen in January unless one party is overly motivated. I always doubted SD's willingness to enter the fray. They have some stupid big contracts on the books and their farm is on the cusp of producing big league pitching. Once they see where their pitching is at, I expect them to start cashing in that farm. But I would expect them to cash in on the pitching side right now. Maybe if Gore and others reach ace status, then they shift to position players

 

Betts would be a limited risk deal. Including Price would allow us to take back one stupid deal- Myers.

[Slasher9]

Could Mookie make the 70 win Padres a title contender? No but he could be a big part of a turnaround that does. Worst-to-first isn’t the anomaly it used to be...

i thought you were the one that posted the SDP would not be in on Betts. apologies if that is incorrect.

i think we might be saying the same thing

[Bellhorn04]

Notin never said that. I said some people might be overvaluing the right to pay Mookie $30mil for one year.

 

I have also said the Sox can be good without him, because I have faith in Bogaerts, Devers, Rodriguez, Martinez, Sale, etc...

 

You've been saying things like this: Losing Bryce Harper clearly didn't end any chances of a Washington World Series title

[Bellhorn04]

dont you both very much adhere to WAR? i guess your answer would be 7-10 wins?

obviously it would need to be a team that thinks they have a shot in 2020. my original point was that the 1 year "rental money" isn't really the deciding factor. it's a contract that basically pays for itself. the deciding factor is the prospects they would be willing to give up in addition to the cash they have to pay betts. we have all seen up close and personal that a team can get both prospects & salary relief in return for a player.

does Mookie turn a 70 win Padres team into a contender? probably not. but if Preller did the trade would it hurt Prowlers checkbook in the end? nope.

 

You're saying the 27.5 million dollars wouldn't impact the Padres financially?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't forget Mookie's diminutive frame has also had three more months of aging breakdowns since last season.

[Bellhorn04]

For years, I have been pointing out that every team will win between 40% and 60% of their games, and the few that don’t do not miss this range by much.

 

So what though? Over 162 games the difference between 40% and 60% is 32.4 wins. It's a very large difference.

[Slasher9]

You're saying the 27.5 million dollars wouldn't impact the Padres financially?

 

no. i think the bump in ticket sales (which in turn bump up the parking, hot dog, & beer sales) and SDP #50 jersey/tshirt sales will cover it. and i dont think that the 1 year "rental" would prevent them from signing other potential contracts. especially when the owner makes statements like he did about winning.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's San Diego, they don't draw well in the first place and coming off a 70 win season, they won't draw well even if Betts comes on board. They need pitching, and outside of bringing in Zach Davies, they are lacking in that area

[moonslav59]

I'm 99% sure the Sox will find a way to reset, this season. Whether it's trading Betts or Price or Eovaldi & JBJ or some combination, they will reset.

 

There are teams that normally cannot afford a guy like Betts, but since it's just 1 year, they may think of 2020 as their one year window. If they trade for him before the season starts, they'll get a comp pick.

 

If they wait, they only have to pay the pro-rated share of his contract. Either way, there is and will be a healthy market for Betts.

 

It's Price and Eovaldi that are hard to move. Maybe waiting until they show they are healthy to start 2020 (assuming that happens) will improve their market demand.

 

JBJ is a tough cookie to crack. I assumed, when they committed to arb, they had a deal in place. Maybe they still do.