A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Here's Sportstrac on the Astros.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/2020/

 

I can't make any sense of Spotrac's tax numbers. Cot's info is much better IMO.

[OH FOY]

NFL many use Sportrac. I like Over the Cap myself. Mostly quick reference, keep forgetting about Cots. So yeah your probably right.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Astros are gonna hit $200 mil. Osuna, McCullers, Springer, and Correa are all arb eligible and they'll have to get another starter with Miley and Cole moving on and McCullers moving back in (maybe Whitley is ready). This is why they aren't gonna retain Springer after 2020 and may look to deal him this offseason to make room for Tucker

[notin]

The Astros are gonna hit $200 mil. Osuna, McCullers, Springer, and Correa are all arb eligible and they'll have to get another starter with Miley and Cole moving on and McCullers moving back in (maybe Whitley is ready). This is why they aren't gonna retain Springer after 2020 and may look to deal him this offseason to make room for Tucker

 

It might make more sense for them to trade Correa, since they have a few INF prospects or can move Bregman back to SS (and Gurriel to 3B with Yordan Alvarez taking over 1b).

 

Did anyone notice Bregman finished 0.1 fWAR behind Trout and 0.1 bWAR ahead of Trout? The MVP race might be that much tighter...

[moonslav59]

At some point, there is the potential that Groome will be a factor as well. And really, ranking a farm system is all about ranking potential...

 

Yes. I actually think DD did okay with what picks he had. He sucked in IFAs.

 

Our farm is better than I thought it would be, but it is a far distance from where it needs to be to make the rebuild complete and sustainable.

 

The changes in the system are the main reason, and that's why I have stressed the need to get the best people into our scouting and talent recognition areas plus developing pitchers.

[notin]

The Astros are going to have some payroll issues of their own next year.

 

They already have a 2020 projected payroll for tax purposes of $163 million, and that only covers 8 players, doesn't include any of the arb players.

 

For some reference, the Sox have $159mill covering 7 players. But that could go down to $136mill for 6 players if JD opts out...

[Elktonnick]

22nd is no where near what we were before, and that is just one service saying we are 22nd. It's a good source, but most of the article was about 2007-2016,

 

I've never said our farm was totally void of talent, but the few bright stars are far away.

 

Chavis losing prospect status is a tiny blip. The guy hit under .700 for the 3 months after his first 2-3 weeks.

 

The point of the article substantiated my point that Boston's superior scouting was going to quickly return to the status quo ante the Club's minor league system. You said that everything had changed including the scouts. I pointed to an article that clearly refuted that contention. Obviously if you had read the whole article, you would have known the article was about Boston's superior scouting. It merely used historical data to substantiate that position.

 

We are only three seasons removed from 2016. Clearly the championship was largely built on home grown talent scouted by its superior scouting department. The article points out that the scouting department is largely unchanged, its new management were all internal promotions. The article also points out that while the farm system was ranked 30 because most if not all its prospects are now in the majors it has rebounded to 22nd as the superior Red Sox scouts who are more adept at identifying talent than their competitor's is trending in the right direction. I believe I through authoritative sources have refuted all your points about the Red Sox scouts and the future direction of their farm system. All you have is unsupported and unsubstantiated statements.

 

BTW I hate to bring this up but weren't you the guy who claimed after one season that Alex Cora was the greatest manager in Red Sox history?

 

I believe

Having used that talent to produce the championship the article also pointed out that while the

[Elktonnick]

Yes. I actually think DD did okay with what picks he had. He sucked in IFAs.

 

Our farm is better than I thought it would be, but it is a far distance from where it needs to be to make the rebuild complete and sustainable.

 

The changes in the system are the main reason, and that's why I have stressed the need to get the best people into our scouting and talent recognition areas plus developing pitchers.

 

We have the best talent in the scouting and talent recognition areas as clearly documented by Chad Jennings article in the Athletic.

[moonslav59]

We have the best talent in the scouting and talent recognition areas as clearly documented by Chad Jennings article in the Athletic.

 

It's not clearly documented they are the best.

 

We have sucked at signing international free agents for father back than 2016. Look for yourself. Nobody can claim we have done well in that area. Yes, one of the best guys we signed died, but we're not even sure he would have been a top prospect/

 

https://soxprospects.com/international.htm

 

Our last great drafts were 2011 and 2014, and 2011 was helped by 4 comp picks. The 2014 draft was all about getting Betts in the 5th round and Kopech.

 

We've done squat since then, except for Beni with a 7th pick, which we won't be getting again, unless we hit the cliff.

 

You want me to "document" the squat?

 

2015 (The second to last year we drafted high)

7th Beni

171 Lakins

411 Poyner

Not bad, but not top talent recognition drafting so high.

 

2016: (last year drafting high)

12 Groome - got hurt and could rise

51 Chatham

88 S Anderson

118 Dalbec

148 Shawaryn

Again, not bad, but no evidence of great recognition

 

2017:

24 Houck - might amount to something but is not top 100 like top recognition guys should be drafting 24th every now and then

63 Brannen- lol

101 Netzer- double lol

131 Thompson- lmao

161 Scherff- wing and a prayer choice

 

2018:

26 Casas- their best choice first round below #12 in I don't know how long but still ranked like 85th.

64 Decker- lol

100 Feltman- maybe

130 Coleman- who?

160- Ward- GREAT Pick fromt his slot

Overall a decent draft with such bad picks.

 

2019 (saw a draft penalty due to overspending)

43 Cannon

69 Lugo- could be good

107 Zeferjahn

137 Song- nice pick

Overall, maybe good for the bad picks, but clearly not good enough to help us get to a top 10 farm again.

 

If you combine the horrid IFA signings with the draft picks, there is no way you can say we are on track to become a top 10 farm again, unless we suck and get top 10 picks at some point.

 

Look, I want to believe otherwise. I see we have some very promising prospects, but compare our top 20 list to the top 20 from April 2016 (Moncada, Devers, Espi, Beni, Kopech, Basabe, Dubon, Marco, Chavis...) or April 2014 (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Vaz, Barnes, Workman, Margot, Devers...) and our list now is not even close.

 

https://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

By the way, Amiel Sawdaye was our Director of Amateur scouting until the 2014 draft, so there was a change. He wasn't the only one who left, either. Mike Rikard has been the guy from 2015-2019- that's 5 years and not really part of the 2007-2016 stretch very much.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

For some reference, the Sox have $159mill covering 7 players. But that could go down to $136mill for 6 players if JD opts out...

 

Or, is traded.

[jacksonianmarch]

In order to keep a farm from dying when you are sending out any prospect that has value above AA, you cannot whiff on an IFA season or a draft class. Beni was big for 2015, but the rest of the draft is a whiff. 2016 outside of Chatham has been a total bust (Groome might change that). 2017 is what is killing them. A good 2017 draft would have them in a reasonable spot, but they whiffed on that. And essentially since they signed Devers in 2013 their IFA signings has been abysmal. Absolutely horrendous.

[notin]

In order to keep a farm from dying when you are sending out any prospect that has value above AA, you cannot whiff on an IFA season or a draft class. Beni was big for 2015, but the rest of the draft is a whiff. 2016 outside of Chatham has been a total bust (Groome might change that). 2017 is what is killing them. A good 2017 draft would have them in a reasonable spot, but they whiffed on that. And essentially since they signed Devers in 2013 their IFA signings has been abysmal. Absolutely horrendous.

 

I wouldn't call the 2017 class a whiff just yet.

 

Cole Brannen looks like he may top out in AA, but Houck is already in AAA. And Scherff and Schellenger have potential...

[notin]

In order to keep a farm from dying when you are sending out any prospect that has value above AA, you cannot whiff on an IFA season or a draft class. Beni was big for 2015, but the rest of the draft is a whiff. 2016 outside of Chatham has been a total bust (Groome might change that). 2017 is what is killing them. A good 2017 draft would have them in a reasonable spot, but they whiffed on that. And essentially since they signed Devers in 2013 their IFA signings has been abysmal. Absolutely horrendous.

 

The 2015 draft also produced Chad de la Guerra, who had a .901 OPS in Pawtucket while playing solid defense....

[moonslav59]

The IFA signings have killed us and that used to be our strength.

 

There's no way anybody can rightfully call the Sox top talent recognition people with that horrid record since Moncada & Espi in 2014 and Devers in 2013.

[Slasher9]

Here's 2021 Payroll at this time, for all the teams.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2021/

 

if you look at the 2019 tab the Rays are 30th. impressive, most impressive. i hope they win the world series.

[Bellhorn04]

The IFA signings have killed us and that used to be our strength.

 

There's no way anybody can rightfully call the Sox top talent recognition people with that horrid record since Moncada & Espi in 2014 and Devers in 2013.

 

What was the effect of the penalties we got hit with when Ben was GM?

[moonslav59]

What was the effect of the penalties we got hit with when Ben was GM?

 

That was one year, but if you look at the years before & after, I'm not sure you can say it hurt that much.

[moonslav59]

if you look at the 2019 tab the Rays are 30th. impressive, most impressive. i hope they win the world series.

 

Me2.

 

Also, look at their draft positions:

22

16

4

13

21

21

25

24

17

30

 

Not that much different than ours, yet they have a top 10 farm.

[Elktonnick]

It's not clearly documented they are the best.

 

We have sucked at signing international free agents for father back than 2016. Look for yourself. Nobody can claim we have done well in that area. Yes, one of the best guys we signed died, but we're not even sure he would have been a top prospect/

 

https://soxprospects.com/international.htm

 

Our last great drafts were 2011 and 2014, and 2011 was helped by 4 comp picks. The 2014 draft was all about getting Betts in the 5th round and Kopech.

 

We've done squat since then, except for Beni with a 7th pick, which we won't be getting again, unless we hit the cliff.

 

You want me to "document" the squat?

 

2015 (The second to last year we drafted high)

7th Beni

171 Lakins

411 Poyner

Not bad, but not top talent recognition drafting so high.

 

2016: (last year drafting high)

12 Groome - got hurt and could rise

51 Chatham

88 S Anderson

118 Dalbec

148 Shawaryn

Again, not bad, but no evidence of great recognition

 

2017:

24 Houck - might amount to something but is not top 100 like top recognition guys should be drafting 24th every now and then

63 Brannen- lol

101 Netzer- double lol

131 Thompson- lmao

161 Scherff- wing and a prayer choice

 

2018:

26 Casas- their best choice first round below #12 in I don't know how long but still ranked like 85th.

64 Decker- lol

100 Feltman- maybe

130 Coleman- who?

160- Ward- GREAT Pick fromt his slot

Overall a decent draft with such bad picks.

 

2019 (saw a draft penalty due to overspending)

43 Cannon

69 Lugo- could be good

107 Zeferjahn

137 Song- nice pick

Overall, maybe good for the bad picks, but clearly not good enough to help us get to a top 10 farm again.

 

If you combine the horrid IFA signings with the draft picks, there is no way you can say we are on track to become a top 10 farm again, unless we suck and get top 10 picks at some point.

 

Look, I want to believe otherwise. I see we have some very promising prospects, but compare our top 20 list to the top 20 from April 2016 (Moncada, Devers, Espi, Beni, Kopech, Basabe, Dubon, Marco, Chavis...) or April 2014 (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Vaz, Barnes, Workman, Margot, Devers...) and our list now is not even close.

 

https://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

By the way, Amiel Sawdaye was our Director of Amateur scouting until the 2014 draft, so there was a change. He wasn't the only one who left, either. Mike Rikard has been the guy from 2015-2019- that's 5 years and not really part of the 2007-2016 stretch very much.

 

 

 

 

Rikard has been with the Sox for over ten years. You can quibble but the facts are clear Boston is second to none in its scouting which was my original point.

[Elktonnick]

The IFA signings have killed us and that used to be our strength.

 

There's no way anybody can rightfully call the Sox top talent recognition people with that horrid record since Moncada & Espi in 2014 and Devers in 2013.

 

There is more to baseball scouting than the IFA market which you seem to have a fixation on. Besides anyone who claims that Alex Cora is the greatest manager in Red Sox history after one season shouldn't question anyone's baseball judgment.

[moonslav59]

Rikard has been with the Sox for over ten years. You can quibble but the facts are clear Boston is second to none in its scouting which was my original point.

 

What fact? An article that focuses mostly on 2007-2016 or the fact that are farm is in the bottom third and has had a horrible IFA period lasting 4-5 years and a so-so drafting record since 2014.

 

We got many of our greatest players or traded prospects from the IFA market. I'm not focusing on just that, in fact I listed every draft since 2014 and just provided a link for the IFA selections.

 

Here is a list of significant IFA signings by time period:

 

2003-2015

Doubront

Dice-K

Okajima

Tazawa

Bogey

Iggy (traded for Peavy)

Montas (traded)

Aro (traded)

Lin

Margot (traded for Kimbrel)

Bautista (traded)

Devers

D Hernandez

Moncada (traded for Sale)

Castillo

Espinoza (traded for Pomeranz)

 

2015-2019

Velazquez

D Flores (RIP)

 

I may be over hyping the IFA market, but look at all those names. Why are you neglecting it? We've sucked at it for 4 cycles. How many more do we need to convince you that area sucks, and that area is a big part of player "recognition".

 

As to the Cora is the greatest ever, the jury is still out. I may have been wrong with what I said. If your logic concludes that once somebody is wrong about something, they must be wrong about everything, I can see why you were duped by this article. I'm sure those who wrote the article have NEVER been wrong.

 

Bottom line: Our farm is bottom 3rd. We have improved some under tough circumstances, which is a good sign, but to say "the facts are clear Boston is second to none in scouting" is just plain speculation at best and absurdity at worst.

 

It's like me saying, "the facts are clear that Cora is the best Sox manager ever, because he has a 50% Ring rate, and that's a fact."

[moonslav59]

There is more to baseball scouting than the IFA market which you seem to have a fixation on. Besides anyone who claims that Alex Cora is the greatest manager in Red Sox history after one season shouldn't question anyone's baseball judgment.

 

Scouting also involves evaluating ML talent on other teams and deciding who to trade for and what is worth giving up for them.

 

We've made some good and great trades, but some of the most recent ones have not worked out all that well.

 

Cashner: We didn't give up much, at least what we know now, but he sucked.

Chacin: just a cheap signing, but he's sucked.

Pearce for Espinal- looks great- the re-signing- not so much (more of a medical issue not scouting)

Kinsler for Buttrey (oops)

Beeks for Eovaldi- may have won us the ring or at least was a big part

Signings:

Moreland

Pearce

Eovaldi

JD Martinez

Price

 

Some good- some not so good

 

[moonslav59]

25th 2019

30th 2018

23rd 2017

20th 2016

24th 2015

22nd 2014

 

Look at their prospect "talent recognition" compared to ours and tell me we are clearly second to none.

[notin]

25th 2019

30th 2018

23rd 2017

20th 2016

24th 2015

22nd 2014

 

Look at their prospect "talent recognition" compared to ours and tell me we are clearly second to none.

 

 

Is it all talent recognition? The Dodgers did take Devin Smeltzer and Luke Raley ahead of Tony Gonsolin...

[Elktonnick]

25th 2019

30th 2018

23rd 2017

20th 2016

24th 2015

22nd 2014

 

Look at their prospect "talent recognition" compared to ours and tell me we are clearly second to none.

Dodgers no rings this century, Boston has 4.

[Elktonnick]

Scouting also involves evaluating ML talent on other teams and deciding who to trade for and what is worth giving up for them.

 

We've made some good and great trades, but some of the most recent ones have not worked out all that well.

 

Cashner: We didn't give up much, at least what we know now, but he sucked.

Chacin: just a cheap signing, but he's sucked.

Pearce for Espinal- looks great- the re-signing- not so much (more of a medical issue not scouting)

Kinsler for Buttrey (oops)

Beeks for Eovaldi- may have won us the ring or at least was a big part

Signings:

Moreland

Pearce

Eovaldi

JD Martinez

Price

 

Some good- some not so good

 

 

These are all your opinion which of course you have a right to. But don't expect me to agree merely because you post it. BTW why do you put everything in bold face. It is the equivalent of shouting in text. It is off putting. Are you afraid no one would pay any attention to your posts if you wrote them in normal type. Curious

[moonslav59]

Dodgers no rings this century, Boston has 4.

 

We're talking farm system and prospect recognition not FA signings and coaching.

 

There's no doubt we used to be one of the best of maybe even "the best," but we have not been even close to the best for 4+ years in "talent recognition" in terms of drafting and IFA signings.

[notin]

Dodgers no rings this century, Boston has 4.

 

Point?

[moonslav59]

These are all your opinion which of course you have a right to. But don't expect me to agree merely because you post it. BTW why do you put everything in bold face. It is the equivalent of shouting in text. It is off putting. Are you afraid no one would pay any attention to your posts if you wrote them in normal type. Curious

 

Yes, it's my opinion, but I don't preface my opinion with "The facts are clear" then state an opinion. Like when I said Cora was the best Sox manager ever, I didn't say "the facts are clear Cora is the best."

 

Bold is no shouting- ALL CAPS ARE.

 

I have eye sight problems, and it helps me see better and locate my posts and responses to my posts easier. I don't mean to offend anyone.

[Nick]

Yes, it's my opinion, but I don't preface my opinion with "The facts are clear" then state an opinion. Like when I said Cora was the best Sox manager ever, I didn't say "the facts are clear Cora is the best."

 

Bold is no shouting- ALL CAPS ARE.

 

I have eye sight problems, and it helps me see better and locate my posts and responses to my posts easier. I don't mean to offend anyone.

 

You don't ever offend me.....bold away!