A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Some numbers on Vaz. Since 2003, Vaz just placed...

4th in PAs (521)

3rd in HRs (23) 25 by VTek ('03) & Salty ('12)

4th in RBI (72) 85 VTek ('03), VMart 79 ('10), VTek 73 ('04)

6th in OPS (.798)

 

[sk7326]

Some numbers on Vaz. Since 2003, Vaz just placed...

4th in PAs (521)

3rd in HRs (23) 25 by VTek ('03) & Salty ('12)

4th in RBI (72) 85 VTek ('03), VMart 79 ('10), VTek 73 ('04)

6th in OPS (.798)

 

 

An improvement in approach and a juiced ball means a heckuva season.

[moonslav59]

How did we do by position?

 

Team Positional WAR:

3rd SS (6.6) 0.9 from 2nd

6th RF (6.4) 0.4 from 4th

6th 3B (5.9) 0.3 from 4th

6th DH (2.8) 0.7 from 4th

10th C (3.2) 0.2 from 7th

19th CF (1.4) 1.1 from 13th

25th LF (0.9) 0.6 from 20th

25th 1B (-0.4) 1.1 from 20th

28th 2B (-0.1) 1.1 from 20th

 

12th in pitching (16.5) .04 from 11th

5th in RP'ing (5.5) 1.4 from 4th

14th SP'ing (11.0) 0.9 from 10th

 

9th in Defense (13.3) 5.9 from 8th

7th in UZR/150 (3.4) .02 from 6th

23rd in DRS (-36) 20 from 22nd

 

[cp176]

Right. My issue with the Dombrowski thing is that Henry is not copping to being responsible for the directive. It's a demanding fan base - like it should be for the prices they pay - and Henry has consistently shown very little stomach for absorbing criticism when anything does not turn out amazing.

 

I think that it is becoming apparent that this is the case. Criticism causes him to react in catering ways. He needs to own the major decisions that are made.

[Bellhorn04]

Right. My issue with the Dombrowski thing is that Henry is not copping to being responsible for the directive. It's a demanding fan base - like it should be for the prices they pay - and Henry has consistently shown very little stomach for absorbing criticism when anything does not turn out amazing.

 

Henry did say there were differences with Dombrowski that started right after winning the World Series in 2018.

 

How specific do we really expect him to be?

 

It's a no-win situation. If Henry starts enumerating all the things DD did that he disagreed with, does that make anything better?

[Slasher9]

So if we use WAR only perhaps from now on instead of the annual "trade JBj" thread it should be "trade Beni"?????

[Slasher9]

Henry did say there were differences with Dombrowski that started right after winning the World Series in 2018.

 

How specific do we really expect him to be?

 

It's a no-win situation. If Henry starts enumerating all the things DD did that he disagreed with, does that make anything better?

 

exactly. what does SK want JH to do? throw himself under the bus? JH is the owner. when you are top s*** rolls downhill. it doesnt just land at your feet. GM's are hired to be fired and to shoulder the blame. just like managers.

[Bellhorn04]

So if we use WAR only perhaps from now on instead of the annual "trade JBj" thread it should be "trade Beni"?????

 

'Trade JBJ' threads use his batting average. It's his defenders that use WAR.

[Bellhorn04]

So this team is shedding payroll to stink next year as well or what? How does that work? This is on management with some ridiculous contracts. Now they’re trying to wipe their hands off.

 

So what would you like Henry to do? He fired DD, in case you didn't notice. Want him to sell the team too?

[OH FOY]

Talkin Baseball last night, Mazz, Merloni, and Tomase said they wont be shocked if JBJ, Betts, and JD are gone.

Just passing what I saw. Team can still win 84+ games without them, according to them.

[Elktonnick]

So what would you like Henry to do? He fired DD, in case you didn't notice. Want him to sell the team too?

 

JH is all about the bottom line. He made his money and name on developing techniques to take emotion out of business decision making. He has done that with the Red Sox and Liverpool as well. DD did the job he was hired to do and got paid very well to do it. In doing that job he created a situation that required a different leadership style for the future. Henry simply is looking for the next head of baseball operations to take the team to its new direction. Once that new executive is no longer the one capable of keeping up with the next phase he will be fired as well. Remember what Henry said when he fired Francona, all managers have a life cycle or words to that effect. "It's personal Sonny, it's business."

[OH FOY]

Sam Kennedy said yesterday, "We've proved we can win the World Series with the Highest Payroll in MLB, and we proved we can have the Highest Payroll in MLB and win 84 games".

 

That's pretty telling.

[OH FOY]

Just thinking 108 wins and 84 wins, averages to 96 wins, if this was the case this year the Sox wouldn't have made the Play-offs, Tampa won the tie breaker.

[Bellhorn04]

Just thinking 108 wins and 84 wins, averages to 96 wins, if this was the case this year the Sox wouldn't have made the Play-offs, Tampa won the tie breaker.

 

And the Guardians won 93 and didn't even make the Wild Card game.

[cp176]

So if we use WAR only perhaps from now on instead of the annual "trade JBj" thread it should be "trade Beni"?????

 

and that's why i was for keeping the real athlete - moncada - over benintendi

[notin]

and that's why i was for keeping the real athlete - moncada - over benintendi

 

It is possible the Sox wanted Benintendi because they didn't really know where to play Moncada. Pedroia was supposed to lock up 2b and possible they had enough faith in Devers to handle 3B, coupled with no outfield talent on the horizon after Benintendi...

[OH FOY]

And the Guardians won 93 and didn't even make the Wild Card game.

 

Yep with a 121.5 million dollar payroll.

[sk7326]

Henry did say there were differences with Dombrowski that started right after winning the World Series in 2018.

 

How specific do we really expect him to be?

 

It's a no-win situation. If Henry starts enumerating all the things DD did that he disagreed with, does that make anything better?

 

That is the sound of a man washing his hands of the offseason despite the fact he greenlighted the money for those 8 figure AAVs for Sale and Eovaldi. Henry has done this before, after each less than awesome season (which we've had blessedly few).

[sk7326]

It is possible the Sox wanted Benintendi because they didn't really know where to play Moncada. Pedroia was supposed to lock up 2b and possible they had enough faith in Devers to handle 3B, coupled with no outfield talent on the horizon after Benintendi...

 

They kept him because he was the better player at the time with a more likely range of outcomes. Waiting on Moncada did not fit their timetable - they were contending and did not want to play such a raw dude - and of course it helped them land Chris Sale. The White Sox got a leap from him in Year 3 - but also had two years of being a poor man's Mark Bellhorn along the way. There is nothing wrong with developing a guy - but the Red Sox did not have those kind of plate appearances available given their competitive situation.

[moonslav59]

Whatever Henry chooses to do is fine with me. He's the best thing that happened to the Sox, and it's not even close.

 

It was great that he spent so much to bring us rings, but part of me felt like it was getting out of hand, and we were becoming the modern day Yankees. I don't want other teams saying, "They win because the buy championships." In some sense, almost every team that has won has spent big on a FA (or a few), but we were blowing other teams away with our spending- like the Yanks of old.

 

I'm hopeful we get back to spending after we reset, but I'd rather see us win without being the top spender (like 2004 and 2007), if we can. Of course winning while spending large is still nice, but I think you know what I mean.

 

Reset.

 

Build the farm back to at least mediocrity.

 

Spend on a few key players.

 

Get back to glory as quickly as possible within the framework of a reset and avoidance of max penalties.

[jacksonianmarch]

Whatever Henry chooses to do is fine with me. He's the best thing that happened to the Sox, and it's not even close.

 

It was great that he spent so much to bring us rings, but part of me felt like it was getting out of hand, and we were becoming the modern day Yankees. I don't want other teams saying, "They win because the buy championships." In some sense, almost every team that has won has spent big on a FA (or a few), but we were blowing other teams away with our spending- like the Yanks of old.

 

I'm hopeful we get back to spending after we reset, but I'd rather see us win without being the top spender (like 2004 and 2007), if we can. Of course winning while spending large is still nice, but I think you know what I mean.

 

Reset.

 

Build the farm back to at least mediocrity.

 

Spend on a few key players.

 

Get back to glory as quickly as possible within the framework of a reset and avoidance of max penalties.

 

Pretending that the money wasn’t the biggest factor is naïveté. Then again, flags fly forever, so who cares. If the yanks are the big spender and win the title, I’ll be happy as a pig in s***.

[Elktonnick]

Whatever Henry chooses to do is fine with me. He's the best thing that happened to the Sox, and it's not even close.

 

It was great that he spent so much to bring us rings, but part of me felt like it was getting out of hand, and we were becoming the modern day Yankees. I don't want other teams saying, "They win because the buy championships." In some sense, almost every team that has won has spent big on a FA (or a few), but we were blowing other teams away with our spending- like the Yanks of old.

 

I'm hopeful we get back to spending after we reset, but I'd rather see us win without being the top spender (like 2004 and 2007), if we can. Of course winning while spending large is still nice, but I think you know what I mean.

 

Reset.

 

Build the farm back to at least mediocrity.

 

Spend on a few key players.

 

Get back to glory as quickly as possible within the framework of a reset and avoidance of max penalties.

 

So long as a team has competent scouts and makes sound decisions on its draft picks the farm system will naturally replenish itself. Except for the development of pitchers, the Red Sox have proven quite adept at signing good prospects and making sound draft choices, pitching being the most problematic. I have no doubt that within a very short time the Red Sox farm system will be awash with very promising young position players.

[moonslav59]

Pretending that the money wasn’t the biggest factor is naïveté. Then again, flags fly forever, so who cares. If the yanks are the big spender and win the title, I’ll be happy as a pig in s***.

 

Actually, our home grown players far out-weighed our FAs in all our championship seasons, so I'm not sure I'd say "biggest factor."

 

Winning while not being the top spender just feels better, to me.

 

Of course, winning is most important. I'd rather win with Henry spending $300M than not winning, but I think you know what I mean. (Maybe not, being a Yankee fan and all.)

[moonslav59]

So long as a team has competent scouts and makes sound decisions on its draft picks the farm system will naturally replenish itself. Except for the development of pitchers, the Red Sox have proven quite adept at signing good prospects and making sound draft choices, pitching being the most problematic. I have no doubt that within a very short time the Red Sox farm system will be awash with very promising young position players.

 

It's not that simple. We need better scouts than other teams have. The system has changed, and it is much harder for winning teams and teams spending over the tax line to acquires top prospects. Just look at the IFA market. We've sucked for several years now, so I'm not sure where the "adept at signing good prospects" is coming from.

 

The last meaningful IFA signing was Velazquez way back in Feb 2017. Before that it was Castillo and Espinoza in 2014. You have to go back to 2013 and the Devers signing to see where we struck gold.

 

As for drafting, the jury is still out, but I trust the rankings that show we are bottom 8, at best.

[Elktonnick]

It's not that simple. We need better scouts than other teams have. The system has changed, and it is much harder for winning teams and teams spending over the tax line to acquires top prospects. Just look at the IFA market. We've sucked for several years now, so I'm not sure where the "adept at signing good prospects" is coming from.

 

The last meaningful IFA signing was Velazquez way back in Feb 2017. Before that it was Castillo and Espinoza in 2014. You have to go back to 2013 and the Devers signing to see where we struck gold.

 

As for drafting, the jury is still out, but I trust the rankings that show we are bottom 8, at best.

 

Castillo wasn't a failure of scouting but rather one of Cherrington getting overwhelmed by the hype about the value of Cuban players all of whom tended to be overvalued. As for signing strong prospects the complaint has been that DD gutted the farm. Well he couldn't have gutted the farm to build the championship team unless he had excellent prospects to trade. Baseball American earlier in this decade repeated rated the Sox farm system as among the best, in 2014 the Red Sox were ranked 2nd, 2015 Bleacher Report ranked Boston 4th and the Yankees 15 th. In 2016 pre season six months after DD's hiring, Bleacher Report had Boston 3rd and the Yankees 16th. By 2018 preseason the Sox were ranked 21st and preseason 2019 30 th. So the historical record supports those who contend DD depleted the farm to achieve his championship.

 

So post Dombrowski there is every indication that Boston's farm system will return to the status quo ante, one of baseballs best. Remember Henry reportedly fired Dombrowski because of his leadership style. Specifically the reporting by Gammons et al was that DD wasn't listening to his scouts and minor league managers and coaching staff. Presumably his successor won't repeat that mistake.

[moonslav59]

Castillo wasn't a failure of scouting but rather one of Cherrington getting overwhelmed by the hype about the value of Cuban players all of whom tended to be overvalued. As for signing strong prospects the complaint has been that DD gutted the farm. Well he couldn't have gutted the farm to build the championship team unless he had excellent prospects to trade. Baseball American earlier in this decade repeated rated the Sox farm system as among the best, in 2014 the Red Sox were ranked 2nd, 2015 Bleacher Report ranked Boston 4th and the Yankees 15 th. In 2016 pre season six months after DD's hiring, Bleacher Report had Boston 3rd and the Yankees 16th. By 2018 preseason the Sox were ranked 21st and preseason 2019 30 th. So the historical record supports those who contend DD depleted the farm to achieve his championship.

 

So post Dombrowski there is every indication that Boston's farm system will return to the status quo ante, one of baseballs best. Remember Henry reportedly fired Dombrowski because of his leadership style. Specifically the reporting by Gammons et al was that DD wasn't listening to his scouts and minor league managers and coaching staff. Presumably his successor won't repeat that mistake.

 

Theo was operating under a different system.

 

Give me just one "indication" the farm system will return to status quo?

 

Is the new guy going to revamp our scouting & developing?

 

Maybe, if we finish 30th a couple years in a row.

Edited October 2, 2019 by moonslav59

[harmony]

So long as a team has competent scouts and makes sound decisions on its draft picks the farm system will naturally replenish itself. Except for the development of pitchers, the Red Sox have proven quite adept at signing good prospects and making sound draft choices, pitching being the most problematic. I have no doubt that within a very short time the Red Sox farm system will be awash with very promising young position players.

The Red Sox will have the 17th pick in the June 2020 draft:

 

2020 Draft order set

WWW.MLB.COM

---

For the second time in three years, the Tigers own the No. 1 pick in the Draft. After taking right-hander Casey Mize with the first selection in 2018, Detroit is on the clock for 2020. Detroit lost a Major League-high 114 games, the second-most in the franchise's 119-season history, to

 

... the fourth-highest pick since the Sox took David Murphy with the No. 17 pick of the 2003 draft:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=BOS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

The three higher picks were Trey Ball (No. 7 in 2013), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7 in 2015) and Jay Groome (No. 12 in 2016).

 

Other No. 17 picks for the Red Sox included Rick Asadoorian in 1999 and John Curtice in 1997.

Edited October 2, 2019 by harmony

[vegasbob]

Pretending that the money wasn’t the biggest factor is naïveté. Then again, flags fly forever, so who cares. If the yanks are the big spender and win the title, I’ll be happy as a pig in s***.

 

Well for you to be covered in s***, you need to beat the Astros, then the Dodgers (most likely) as we did in 2018. Good luck , Jack. The feeling when you do that is like a shot of heroin in the carotid.

[vegasbob]

Castillo wasn't a failure of scouting but rather one of Cherrington getting overwhelmed by the hype about the value of Cuban players all of whom tended to be overvalued. As for signing strong prospects the complaint has been that DD gutted the farm. Well he couldn't have gutted the farm to build the championship team unless he had excellent prospects to trade. Baseball American earlier in this decade repeated rated the Sox farm system as among the best, in 2014 the Red Sox were ranked 2nd, 2015 Bleacher Report ranked Boston 4th and the Yankees 15 th. In 2016 pre season six months after DD's hiring, Bleacher Report had Boston 3rd and the Yankees 16th. By 2018 preseason the Sox were ranked 21st and preseason 2019 30 th. So the historical record supports those who contend DD depleted the farm to achieve his championship.

 

So post Dombrowski there is every indication that Boston's farm system will return to the status quo ante, one of baseballs best. Remember Henry reportedly fired Dombrowski because of his leadership style. Specifically the reporting by Gammons et al was that DD wasn't listening to his scouts and minor league managers and coaching staff. Presumably his successor won't repeat that mistake.

 

Cuban players , in particular, have been big misses in recent years. If any doubt about their character and ability , look at the results. let the Cubans live in Miami and take the other latin players to the MLB.

[Elktonnick]

Theo was operating under a different system.

 

Give me just one "indication" the farm system will return to status quo?

 

Maybe, if we finish 30th a couple years in a row.

 

The Athletic Aug 30 2019 makes the case as follows: "For more than a decade, the Red Sox’ 30-plus area scouts, national crosscheckers and scouting supervisors have been better than most when it comes to drafting big league talent and finding late-round impact. Their success can be overshadowed by the team’s massive payroll and Dave Dombrowski’s wheeling-and-dealing approach, but amateur scouting has facilitated high-profile trades and built the core of a championship roster. For the final out of last year’s World Series, five of the nine Red Sox on the field had been drafted by the team, and two more had been acquired in trades involving draft picks. The other two had been developed as international free agents.

 

By comparison, the Red Sox’ most recent drafts are trending well above average. For their 10 draft classes from 2007 to 2016, the Red Sox already have gotten 16 of their 20 first-round picks to the big leagues (a number that includes supplemental first-rounders). That’s an 80 percent success rate, well above the league average,

 

The Red Sox have gotten that impact despite typically drafting near the bottom of the first round. Twice since 2007 they haven’t had a true first-round pick, and twice they haven’t had a second-round pick. In that time, they’ve only twice picked higher than 12th overall. Eight of those first-round picks were No. 20 or later.

 

That's why I believe as I do.