A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I think you’re low on Workman, probably slightly low on Betts and high in Beni. ERod might be spot on, IMO. Clearly none of us are right, but your estimations IMO should go up by about $3 mil. Hembree is gone btw, my bet is he ends up with TJS and gets non tendered

[moonslav59]

To get under the lux tax you need to lose more than JBJ. When I did my analysis on the Sox, I think the Sox had $26 mil below the final threshold if the whole team returned. Losing JBJ and his projected $10 mil salary still has you over the first threshold by $4 mil

 

Cots has us $56M under the line before arbs. Lets assume no JBJ, Wright or Leon and go a little higher on my arb estimates:

$$$

28 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

12 ERod (3rd of 4)

9 Beni (1 of 3)

4 Barnes (2 of 3)

4 Workman (3 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

 

That's $58M and puts us $2M over the line. No Hembree would put us right at the line- worst case.

 

[moonslav59]

I think you’re low on Workman, probably slightly low on Betts and high in Beni. ERod might be spot on, IMO. Clearly none of us are right, but your estimations IMO should go up by about $3 mil. Hembree is gone btw, my bet is he ends up with TJS and gets non tendered

 

Workman made $1.1M this year. I think that is part of the calculation. He just had a good year, but it's his only good year. Being his last arb year does usually add to the cost, so you might be right.

 

Betts slipped a little, this year, so I'm not sure he gets the $28M I projected earlier this year.

 

First arb years, like Beni's, are hard to project.

 

I think that if Hembree is gone, as you project, we can be under the line by $1M to $6M.

 

If the number is $6M, we can sign a very cheap defensive CF'er and pen arm.

 

Assuming almost perfect health, we could have a competitive team next year, but that's hoping for a lot. I'm not expecting ring competitiveness in 2020, but it could still be a fun year to watch. With expectations much lower, sometimes the same season (like 2019 vs 2020) can be more enjoyable to watch.

[Bellhorn04]

Cots has us $56M under the line before arbs. Lets assume no JBJ, Wright or Leon and go a little higher on my arb estimates:

$$$

28 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs)

12 ERod (3rd of 4)

9 Beni (1 of 3)

4 Barnes (2 of 3)

4 Workman (3 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

 

That's $58M and puts us $2M over the line. No Hembree would put us right at the line- worst case.

 

 

That would be a monster raise for E-Rod. Not that he doesn't deserve it, but that seems a little disproportionate. They only gave him 4.3 mill after a pretty good 2018 season.

[Bellhorn04]

The piece about the Sox re-setting next year includes this statement, BTW. Strictly to placate the fans or dead serious?

 

So, does that mean Betts is destined to depart? Not at all, per the organizational leadership. Though Betts has made clear time and time again that he’s not interested in an extension, Werner says the team intends to actively pursue further extension talks this winter — and has already reached out to Betts’s agent to get the ball rolling.

[Bellhorn04]

Also worth nothing is that Werner backpedalled a bit on the tax reset, saying that's the goal right now, but they might choose not to do it, depending on circumstances.

[moonslav59]

That would be a monster raise for E-Rod. Not that he doesn't deserve it, but that seems a little disproportionate. They only gave him 4.3 mill after a pretty good 2018 season.

 

2 years in a row and being his 3rd (but not last) arb usually pays out, but if I'm high, then we have more wiggle room than I thought.

[moonslav59]

Also worth nothing is that Werner backpedalled a bit on the tax reset, saying that's the goal right now, but they might choose not to do it, depending on circumstances.

 

I can see us letting JBJ go, being $1M under the tax line, and if we are in it at the trade deadline, then deciding to go for one more ring and reset after 2020.

[notin]

Also worth nothing is that Werner backpedalled a bit on the tax reset, saying that's the goal right now, but they might choose not to do it, depending on circumstances.

 

That’s good news for us for 2020.

 

Because there was pretty much no way to fill the gaps on this team adequately with the maybe $6mill or so they’ll have after all the arbitration cases. It also keeps Bradley in play, although he’s still an uncertainty.

 

It’s good to hear the dedication to keeping Betts. The Sox certainly could get a good return for him. But in no way do they get an equal one.

 

I do wonder if JD Martinez is on the market. Again, I don’t expect a great return here. But it should still be a positive.

[Bellhorn04]

One big question is how do they replace Porcello in the rotation on the cheap?

[Bellhorn04]

I do wonder if JD Martinez is on the market. Again, I don’t expect a great return here. But it should still be a positive.

 

Is it possible that JDM reads the writing on the wall and opts out, knowing he might do no better than break even, but wanting some say over where he plays next year?

[notin]

Is it possible that JDM reads the writing on the wall and opts out, knowing he might do no better than break even, but wanting some say over where he plays next year?

 

If I were his agent, I would advise against opting out until after 2020, when his salary drops by about $4mill.

 

He might opt out, as it is possible JD wants some control over his destination. I can’t speak for him there. However it’s also possible he wasn’t so thrilled about the nearly league-wide lack of interest last time he was a free agent...

[moonslav59]

One big question is how do they replace Porcello in the rotation on the cheap?

 

The hard part is getting 6 innings every start.

 

We can probably get a 5.50 ERA from a mixture of DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, Wright and Houck but not 6 IP/GS.

 

If we knew Sale, Price and ERod could go 6 each start, we wouldn't need 6 from the 4-5 slots, but we can't count on 6 from anybody but maybe ERod in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

The hard part is getting 6 innings every start.

 

We can probably get a 5.50 ERA from a mixture of DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, Wright and Houck but not 6 IP/GS.

 

 

Yeah, they might go with bullpen games every 5th day.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, they might go with bullpen games every 5th day.

 

We will have a 26 man roster, next year, so maybe it's not such a big deal anymore.

[Swiharts Ghost]

What are we all on board with now.

1. JDM needs to go.

2.JBJ needs to be upgraded only at the plate the man is superman with a glove ...everyone wanted this to work .

3. one last run at Mookie .My offer is 8 years at 34 with additional 25 million in player incentives .You can work player and team options in .Mookie may want every red cent he can get and most do .The deal is more than fair if he hesitates I wouldn't hesitate to move on and trade him in my next breath .

4.Thad Ward ? He's better than Price right now .Promote this guy .

5 .Sandy Leon needs to be upgraded terribly .

6. The team needs a real pitching Coach not some nice guy lifer bullpen catcher .

7 .sale may need to transition to the pen ? Don't laugh he's a China Doll .

8.We need to cut bait with Brasier ,Barnes

9. We need a no nonsense old school spring training ,teaching base running situations and how to bunt .

10 .goodbye Mitch you are a damn good player when healthy but there in is the problem ..never healthy .

11. Mookie ,Devers ,Xander ,are the core which leads me to 12 .Benny

12.Benny needs to be shopped for pitching .

13 . Cora is on thin warming ice for 20 .

14 .Get Di Di

Edited September 28, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

Let's say we trade JBJ for a low cost, decent RP'er. We trade JD + $6M (saving $16M) for a low cost but good SP'er. If my numbers are right, we'd have about $16-20M to spend on a defensive CF'er and a good pen arm and Sp'er depth.

 

No doubt, losing JBJ and JD will hurt our chances at competing in 2020, but depending on who we get back and who we sign, we may be just as good on paper, but we'd be better placed going forward, financially and in terms of players under team control for 2021 and beyond.

 

No JD, JBJ, Wright or Hembree. I'll assume Leon comes back at $1M. Here could be the 2020 roster:

 

SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, ____ (JD trade), DHern

RP: ___ (FA), Workman, Barnes, Taylor, ___ (JBJ trade), Walden, ___(FA)

C: Vaz & Leon

1B: Dalbec & Travis/Ockimey

2B: Chavis & Marco/Lin/Chatham

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni

CF: ____(FA)

RF: Betts

DH: Chavis/Ockimey

[moonslav59]

What are we all on board with now.

1. JDM needs to go.

2.JBJ needs to be upgraded only at the plate the man is superman with a glove ...everyone wanted this to work .

3. one last run at Mookie .My offer is 8 years at 34 with additional 25 million in player incentives .You can work player and team options in .Mookie may want every red cent he can get and most do .The deal is more than fair if he hesitates I wouldn't hesitate to move on and trade him in my next breath .

 

I'm fine with replacing JBJ with an equal glove and a worse bat as a bridge to the time we can go for a ring, then we may need better offense, or we may not.

 

I'd trade JD, but with the idea that we will do what it takes to keep Betts. If we lose both, we better have a GM that will spend their money wisely and not on the next Pablo, HRam or Eovaldi.

[notin]

Yeah, they might go with bullpen games every 5th day.

 

That seems like a bad idea. Either you put too many potential key IP into the hands of lesser relievers or you end up potentially needlessly using better relievers and not having them available for subsequent games.

 

Just get a fifth starter...

[notin]

Let's say we trade JBJ for a low cost, decent RP'er. We trade JD + $6M (saving $16M) for a low cost but good SP'er. If my numbers are right, we'd have about $16-20M to spend on a defensive CF'er and a good pen arm and Sp'er depth.

 

No doubt, losing JBJ and JD will hurt our chances at competing in 2020, but depending on who we get back and who we sign, we may be just as good on paper, but we'd be better placed going forward, financially and in terms of players under team control for 2021 and beyond.

 

No JD, JBJ, Wright or Hembree. I'll assume Leon comes back at $1M. Here could be the 2020 roster:

 

SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, ____ (JD trade), DHern

RP: ___ (FA), Workman, Barnes, Taylor, ___ (JBJ trade), Walden, ___(FA)

C: Vaz & Leon

1B: Dalbec & Travis/Ockimey

2B: Chavis & Marco/Lin/Chatham

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni

CF: ____(FA)

RF: Betts

DH: Chavis/Ockimey

 

I’d be OK with the Travis/Dalbec/Ockimey trio handling one role, but two? And not even a role that utilizes the one strength in those players’ combined repertoire, which is Dalbec’s defense...

[moonslav59]

That seems like a bad idea. Either you put too many potential key IP into the hands of lesser relievers or you end up potentially needlessly using better relievers and not having them available for subsequent games.

 

Just get a fifth starter...

 

Or, fill the 25th and 26th slots on your roster with 2 pitchers who can go 3-4 IP every 4-5 days. Probably best to be a lefty and a righty. Both could maybe go 3 innings every 5 days and give an inning here and there in between.

 

Could DHern and Houck fill those roles? (Johnson, Velazquez, Wright?)

[moonslav59]

I’d be OK with the Travis/Dalbec/Ockimey trio handling one role, but two? And not even a role that utilizes the one strength in those players’ combined repertoire, which is Dalbec’s defense...

 

It's really Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Travis/Marco filling 3 roles. (Marco is the only one who fills just one role: 2B.)

 

I'd be fine replacing Travis with a cheap FA 1B/DH type or 1B/LF type.

[notin]

If Bradley walks, some food for thought is that baseballtradevalues.com gives Marcus Walden roughy the same surplus value as Brian Goodwin and Delino DeShields. Both are good defensive outfielders. Neither is known for consistent offense (not even consistently bad offense). Neither is slated to be a starter on his respective team. And most important, neither is likely to make over $3mill next season...

[Swiharts Ghost]

Mookie ,DIDi ,Xander ,Devers ,Vaz ,Chavis , not a bad lineup with Dauby fitting in .I for one see Mookie extended as the news of the hot stove .I would have Chavis transition to 1b DH role .I would give Thad Ward an invite to spring training and wouldn't hesitate to let him break camp with the Club as our number 5 starter .Thad Ward is better than any 5 starter we have had in many years . Edited September 28, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[notin]

It's really Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Travis/Marco filling 3 roles. (Marco is the only one who fills just one role: 2B.)

 

I'd be fine replacing Travis with a cheap FA 1B/DH type or 1B/LF type.

 

Adding Marco Hernandez to that list doesn’t make it more impressive.

 

I think one of Cora’s goals next year should be “as little Travis as possible.”

 

And while Devers is looking a lot better at 3b - even since his error-prone April/May, I wouldn’t mind seeing 1b - Devers 2b - Chavis SS - Bogaerts 3b - Dalbec with Hernandez and Lin on the bench. And Travis if there’s room.

 

Still need a DH though, if they trade JDM. If they’re cheap, Ockimey/Travis platoon. But I bet that combo grows old fast...

[moonslav59]

Here are some splits:

 

vs RHPs:

.898 Ockimey AAA 2019/ .968 AA 2018

.794 Dalbec AA 2019/ .970 A 2018

.774 Chavis MLB 2019

.757 Lin MLB Career/ .712 AAA 2019/.805 AAA '18

.733 Marco MLB Career/.852 AAA 2019

.564 Travis MLB Career/ .728 AAA 2019

 

vs LHPs:

.904 Dalbec AA 2019/ .881 A 2018

.742 Chavis MLB 2019

.730 Travis MLB Career/.955 AAA 2019

.605 Marco MLB Career/.469 AAA 2019

.535 Ockimey AAA 2019/ .586 AA 2018

.502 Lin MLB Career/.522 AAA 2019/ .826 AAA '18

 

As long as Ockimey never starts vs LHPs and Travis never starts vs RHPs, we might end up okay at 1B, 2B and DH, next year.

 

Vs RHPs:

DH: Ockimey/Chavis

1B: Dalbec/Ockimey

2B: Chavis/Marco/Lin

 

Vs. LHPs:

DH: Chavis/Travis

1B: Dalbec

2B: Chavis/Marco/Lin

[moonslav59]

Adding Marco Hernandez to that list doesn’t make it more impressive.

 

I think one of Cora’s goals next year should be “as little Travis as possible.”

 

And while Devers is looking a lot better at 3b - even since his error-prone April/May, I wouldn’t mind seeing 1b - Devers 2b - Chavis SS - Bogaerts 3b - Dalbec with Hernandez and Lin on the bench. And Travis if there’s room.

 

Still need a DH though, if they trade JDM. If they’re cheap, Ockimey/Travis platoon. But I bet that combo grows old fast...

 

I added Chavis and Marco to your list (plus another position- 2B)

[moonslav59]

Mookie ,DIDi ,Xander ,Devers ,Vaz ,Chavis , not a bad lineup with Dauby fitting in .I for one see Mookie extended as the news of the hot stove .I would have Chavis transition to 1b DH role .I would give Thad Ward an invite to spring training and wouldn't hesitate to let him break camp with the Club as our number 5 starter .Thad Ward is better than any 5 starter we have had in many years .

 

I'm not convinced on Chavis. He had a very hot start then hit under .700 the rest of the way (over 3 months).

 

His bat would be good for 2B but not 1B. His glove may not be good enough at 2B, but he surprisingly looked okay in limited duty there in 2019.

 

Ward has not even faced AAA batters, yet. He's projected to start 2020 in Portland. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[moonslav59]

I think you’re low on Workman, probably slightly low on Betts and high in Beni. ERod might be spot on, IMO. Clearly none of us are right, but your estimations IMO should go up by about $3 mil. Hembree is gone btw, my bet is he ends up with TJS and gets non tendered

 

Hembree is pitching today.

[moonslav59]

What are we all on board with now.

Who is "we?" You and your split personality?

 

1. JDM needs to go.

Maybe.

 

2.JBJ needs to be upgraded only at the plate the man is superman with a glove ...everyone wanted this to work .

No- downgraded to equal glove- worse O.

 

3. one last run at Mookie .My offer is 8 years at 34 with additional 25 million in player incentives .You can work player and team options in .Mookie may want every red cent he can get and most do .The deal is more than fair if he hesitates I wouldn't hesitate to move on and trade him in my next breath .

4.Thad Ward ? He's better than Price right now .Promote this guy .

$30M x 8 likely gets him at free agency. I'm thinking $320M/10.

 

5 .Sandy Leon needs to be upgraded terribly .

Nope- just a pay cut.

 

6. The team needs a real pitching Coach not some nice guy lifer bullpen catcher .

Agreed. John Farrell?

 

7 .sale may need to transition to the pen ? Don't laugh he's a China Doll .

It's customary to laugh at jokes.

 

8.We need to cut bait with Brasier ,Barnes

Cutting Barnes is downright insanity. The guy improved 4 straight years and still was our 4th best pen arm, this year. Trade him, maybe. Cut him? stpuidity!

9. We need a no nonsense old school spring training ,teaching base running situations and how to bunt .

LOL. Bunting won't help one bit.

 

10 .goodbye Mitch you are a damn good player when healthy but there in is the problem ..never healthy .

Even when healthy- not worth $6M these days.

 

11. Mookie ,Devers ,Xander ,are the core which leads me to 12 .Benny

Add Vaz

 

12.Benny needs to be shopped for pitching .

Not a bad idea, but doubtful "all on board." Who plays LF and CF?

 

13 . Cora is on thin warming ice for 20 .

Nope.

 

14 .Get Di Di

Double Nope!