A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

My steps for reset?

 

1. Non-tender JBJ. Possibly bring him back if he takes a lower salary. Otherwise move on.

2. Deal Barnes for pitching or an outfielder.

3. Deal Dalbec for whatever Barnes doesn't get.

 

Some trades that work out and actually make sense on baseballtradevalues.com include deals like Barnes to the Cubs for Ian Happ (where he is blocked an an OF, but CHC could move him back to 2B), or to Colorado for Raimel Tapia (who is blocked on all fronts). Dalbec to Miami for Jose Urena also works out and actually makes sense for both teams.

 

I'm sure other deals for Barnes could be found that are even better. Everyone needs cheaper bullpen help...

 

I think Barnes is due to bounce back and up his (trade) value for the 2020 deadline.

 

Assuming a reset, we do need to think about trading any players with just 1-2 years of control left.

 

Last Arb:

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Workman

 

2 arbs:

ERod

Barnes

Hembree

 

Of course, I'd like to keep Betts & ERod by extending them....

 

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

 

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

 

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

 

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

 

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

 

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

 

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

 

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.

[S5Dewey]

I've gotta say, and I know I'm not going to make any friends with this, but....

 

Good God. You want to let a GG CF'er who's (probably) going to hit 20 HR's go either by non-tendering him or by trading him for PROSPECTS?? If either of you guys ever have anything to sell I want to be there early because you're pushovers!

 

Cue up the obscure GG'ers who've been traded for prospects in the past 50 years, and you know what? I DON'T CARE! If I couldn't get a respectable pitcher for JBJ I'd keep him. Of course, I'd keep him anyway.

[moonslav59]

I've gotta say, and I know I'm not going to make any friends with this, but....

 

Good God. You want to let a GG CF'er who's (probably) going to hit 20 HR's go either by non-tendering him or by trading him for PROSPECTS?? If either of you guys ever have anything to sell I want to be there early because you're pushovers!

 

Cue up the obscure GG'ers who've been traded for prospects in the past 50 years, and you know what? I DON'T CARE! If I couldn't get a respectable pitcher for JBJ I'd keep him. Of course, I'd keep him anyway.

 

My plan would include finding a younger, very low cost CF'er who can filed as good or better than JBJ and is on the up age curve.

[S5Dewey]

My plan would include finding a younger, very low cost CF'er who can filed as good or better than JBJ and is on the up age curve.

 

I don't see why that won't work. MLB is full of guys who are as good or better than JBJ. I know that because whenever someone 'new' comes to the broadcast booth then NEVER rave about how good JBJ is.

 

Oh... wait...

[harmony]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

 

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

 

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

 

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

 

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

 

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

 

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

 

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.

According to this website, Michael Chavis carries a surplus value of $12.1 million and Bobby Dalbec a surplus value of $13.2 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[oldtimer]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

 

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

 

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

 

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

 

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

 

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

 

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

 

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.

 

I think they keep Chavis, at least until Spring training of 2020. His known deficiency is hitting the high fastball. It is possible he can learn to hit that better since he is inexperienced enough so there is room to grow. He has a big and long swing and may need to modify it some. If they determine he still can't hit it then, they can try the trade route. Imagine the criticism if the kid works out and hits 35 HRs and has an OPS of 900 for another club.

 

Dalbec is also worth a hard look as is Chatham, who could handle SS should Bogie sustain an injury during the season. With Travis, Marco and Lin we know what we have. Still think Ockimey is a lesser version of Dalbec and not ready for the big time.

[jacksonianmarch]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

[moonslav59]

I don't see why that won't work. MLB is full of guys who are as good or better than JBJ. I know that because whenever someone 'new' comes to the broadcast booth then NEVER rave about how good JBJ is.

 

Oh... wait...

 

Saying we can find another great defensive CF'er in no way lessens the greatness of JBJ.

 

He's not the only fantastic defender in MLB. He is also not likely to get any better going forward, at his age, although some have stayed very good long into their 30's.

 

[moonslav59]

According to this website, Michael Chavis carries a surplus value of $12.1 million and Bobby Dalbec a surplus value of $13.2 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

I thought they might be pretty close.

[moonslav59]

I think they keep Chavis, at least until Spring training of 2020. His known deficiency is hitting the high fastball. It is possible he can learn to hit that better since he is inexperienced enough so there is room to grow. He has a big and long swing and may need to modify it some. If they determine he still can't hit it then, they can try the trade route. Imagine the criticism if the kid works out and hits 35 HRs and has an OPS of 900 for another club.

 

Dalbec is also worth a hard look as is Chatham, who could handle SS should Bogie sustain an injury during the season. With Travis, Marco and Lin we know what we have. Still think Ockimey is a lesser version of Dalbec and not ready for the big time.

 

By the time they "determine he still can't hit," the rest of the league will have as well.

 

We waited too long to trade Middy. I'm not saying Chavis will be the next Middy, but I wanted to float the possibility out there.

 

Chavis is now a more known commodity than Dalbec, so I'm not sure which one, if any, we might or should try to trade.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

 

It might depend on what your definition of "elite" means, but he is still pretty damn good, if not great on D. Using metrics for OF'ers involves smaller sample sizes than IF'ers, and who plays next to you factors into the metrics as well.

 

Here are some sample sizes of the larger variety:

 

JBJ: UZR/150, DRS, Inning in CF

 

First 4 seasons: 9.5 (8th in MLB), 27, 2695

Last 4 seasons: 5.8 (10th in MLB), 20, 4725

 

2015-2016: 7.0 (9th), 14, 1600

2017-2019: 4.8 (9th), 16, 3370

 

2018-2019: 4.5 (10th) which ranks him higher than DeShields, Trout, Hicks and Pillar.

 

As you can see, while his UZR/150 and DRS per innings declined, he has stayed ranked 8th to 9th in most 3-4 season sample sizes, which are the sample sizes suggested to be used by the creators of these metrics.

Edited August 28, 2019 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

Here's my prediction on Dalbec, 600 AB's -200 K's, in the Majors.

He has 132 K's in 445 AB's for Portland and Pawtucket, wait till he sees Major League Pitching.

Hope he cuts down on swings and misses.

 

Here's the bigger question. Henry was rated the worst owner over the 5 Major Sports Owners. Even the Revs Kraft is rated higher, in a Poll in New England. (Only NE States, this poll was asked)

Main reason, the 2019 Sox Collapse, and not going all in at the Trade Deadline.

How do you think the NE Fans will handle a Reset, after this year? If the Fans wanted to go all in at the Deadline. Interesting Off-Season for sure.

He has to get rid of Dombrowski. Rated the worst GM in this poll.

What a difference a year makes.

Both were 2nd last year.

I think right now, the Sox have to see the status on Sale 1st. Then make decisions.

Edited August 28, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the bigger question. Henry was rated the worst owner over the 5 Major Sports Owners. Even the Revs Kraft is rated higher, in a Poll in New England. (Only NE States, this poll was asked)

Main reason, the 2019 Sox Collapse, and not going all in at the Trade Deadline.

How do you think the NE Fans will handle a Reset, after this year? If the Fans wanted to go all in at the Deadline. Interesting Off-Season for sure.

He has to get rid of Dombrowski. Rated the worst GM in this poll.

What a difference a year makes.

Both were 2nd last year.

 

Henry worst owner? That is absurd, hilarious and many other similar adjectives.

[OH FOY]

Henry worst owner? That is absurd, hilarious and many other similar adjectives.

 

Like I said it was voted here in NE. Where do you live? Celtics was #4, Wick.

[OH FOY]

Poll went like this.

1) Kraft - Patriots

2) Jacobson- Bruins

3) Kraft- Revolution

4) Wickersham - Celtics

5) Henry - Sox

This was Broadcasted on NBC Sports Boston, yesterday. Henry has rabbit ears too, he listens.

Edited August 28, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Here's my prediction on Dalbec, 600 AB's -200 K's, in the Majors.

He has 132 K's in 445 AB's for Portland and Pawtucket, wait till he sees Major League Pitching.

Hope he cuts down on swings and misses.

 

Okay, but Chavis already has 144 Ks in just 448 PAs this year in MLB + AAA, so what's the difference?

[Bellhorn04]

Poll went like this.

1) Kraft - Patriots

2) Jacobson- Bruins

3) Kraft- Revolution

4) Wickersham - Celtics

5) Henry - Sox

 

I'm guessing the results generally have a pretty high correlation to the standings for that year LOL

[OH FOY]

Okay, but Chavis already has 144 Ks in just 448 PAs this year in MLB + AAA, so what's the difference?

 

Major Leagues? How many at bats does Dalbec have in the Majors? Your comparing Double AA and Triple AAA, to the Majors?

[OH FOY]

I'm guessing the results generally have a pretty high correlation to the standings for that year LOL

 

Of Course, you see how much the NE Fans are disappointed in Ownership after just 1 year, and mostly because Henry didn't go all in this year, how do you think they will feel, if they get cheaper?

Just wondering.

[Slasher9]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

 

amazing. everything you just said is wrong.

[Slasher9]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

[oldtimer]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

 

John Henry did go all in this year and the payroll is approaching the 3rd tier of the competitive balance tax. I for one think he did the right thing by keeping DD from spending still more this year. Resetting next year looks like the right thing to do as does finding a new GM and President of baseball operations. We need a new business plan and someone with the right talent to pull it off. It may hurt for a year or two but it is necessary to become fully competitive again. I give zero blame to the Henry ownership

[jacksonianmarch]

amazing. everything you just said is wrong.

 

care to refute it with data, because the data is on my side

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out.

 

Ridiculous. We've discussed the metrics regarding JBJ ad nauseum here and have come to the conclusion that having Betts beside him has skewed the metrics regarding JBJ.

 

While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall.

 

Most? Really? Have you seen "most of the younger CF'ers play? And BTW, he makes those plays without "a dive or a crash into the wall" - unless it's necessary to make those plays that "most" CF'ers don't make.

He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry.

 

Basic straw man argument. You say he's no longer "elite" (Which is BS, BTW) and then try to make a case to prove it.

 

He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year.

 

I certainly can live with his elite defense even if it stays similar. Given your success at making predictions I'd take your prediction that he may drop from this year with a grain of salt.

 

Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered.

 

See my comment above, Nostradamus.

 

The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching.

 

They could, but DD is smarter than that. He's going to hold onto JBJ for at least one more year until the situation with Mookie gets settled. Possibly then he'll trade him, but Dd loves his up the middle defense and he's not going to give up JBJ for three minor league players.

 

Maybe JBJ isn't an "elite defender" when viewed through pinstripe glasses but it sure seems like every broadcaster I've seen or heard still salivates at his defense. I tend to take the word of people whose career is in baseball rather than a Yankees fan whose goal is to see the Sox finally become a team the Yankees can beat.

[notin]

I don't see why that won't work. MLB is full of guys who are as good or better than JBJ. I know that because whenever someone 'new' comes to the broadcast booth then NEVER rave about how good JBJ is.

 

Oh... wait...

 

They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there.

 

I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...

[notin]

I'm wondering about our plans for Chavis.

 

While we need a 1Bman and 2Bman, and Chavis can play both, I'm wondering about trading him while his stock is high. He reminds me too much of Middlebrooks.

 

People have been ragging on JBJ for his awful slumps, but somehow Chavis has slid under the radar of the same criticism.

 

.237 12 45 in last 324 PAs (.296 OBP and .688 OPS)

 

.313 6 13 in his first 58 PAs (.446 OBP and 1.236 OPS)

 

To me, Dalbec can probably gives about the same as Chavis has since May 4th- maybe better. If not, we have Ockimey and Travis to play 1B. Marco, Lin and Chatham can battle for 2B.

 

My thought is trading Chavis could bring back more than trading Dalbec, as notin suggested.

 

Then again, keeping all our prospects may make the most sense.

 

Maybe, since he is not a pitcher, Dombrowski will make a move for the recently-released Scooter Gennett. Scooter is having a horrible season after missing the first 3 months, but in 2017-18, he did have an .859OPS with 50 HRs. He is a free agent after 2019, but whoever signs him for the remainder of the season would get an inside track to re-signing him. He might even want a one year value rebuilder...

[Slasher9]

Maybe JBJ isn't an "elite defender" when viewed through pinstripe glasses but it sure seems like every broadcaster I've seen or heard still salivates at his defense. I tend to take the word of people whose career is in baseball rather than a Yankees fan whose goal is to see the Sox finally become a team the Yankees can beat.

 

boom.

[Slasher9]

They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there.

 

I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...

 

JBj is the greatest defensive CFer on the planet. Laureano would play LF for the Red Sox when Beni needs a blow....

[Elktonnick]

JBj is the greatest defensive CFer on the planet. Laureano would play LF for the Red Sox when Beni needs a blow....

 

JBJ is an excellent CFer. However he isn't the greatest defensive centerfielder. In fact he isn't even the best defensive centerfielder in the division. Kevin Kiermaier has better defensive metrics.