A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

When talking about WAR? Posters essentially NEVER mention games played when discussing WAR.

 

Harmony does it daily...

[moonslav59]

Harmony does it daily...

 

When people cite BA, OPS, HRs, etc... do they always include games played or PAs?

 

It's kind of understood that when there are great variances in games played of PAs when comparing two players, we factor in the sample sizes.

 

We may think player A is better than B based on better numbers per game (or 162 game prorations), but player B is more valuable because he plays way more games.

 

Why we wouldn't expect people to think the same way with WAR highlights the fact that many don't understand what WAR measures.

 

Here's a great comp that Sox fans can be in tune with. Let's compare Porcello and Price with the Sox since 2016.

 

We'd all say Price is the better pitcher and has been the better pitcher over those years, when he pitches. I would not disagree. We all know Price has been fragile, pitches less IP per start and has less starts than Porcello. We all probably agree that IP and GS'd are valuable, too. So, when we think of total value, we have to do sort of mental evaluation on how to weigh effectiveness vs longevity and durability. It's not easy to do in our heads. We each probably value one more than the other in differing degrees.

 

ERA:

3.85 Price (85 ERA-)

4.28 Porcello (94 ERA-)

 

xFIP

3.76 Price

4.32 Porcello

 

WHIP

1.20 Price

1.23 Porcello

 

K/BB

3.95 Porcello

3.92 Price

 

W-L

46-24 Price

61-38 Porcello

 

WAR (a cumulative metric)

10.7 Porcello

10.5 Price

 

Why? Because of this....

 

GS

125 Porcello

97 Price

 

IP

762 Porcello

586 Price

 

The difference here is 28 starts and 176 IP. That's 28 more starts of 6.1 IP each over 4 years. That's about a full season more of pitching over 4 years. Surely that has major value. How much value is up for debate, and WAR has their formula for counting that. Maybe it is flawed. Maybe our own mental gymnastics are, too.

 

[notin]

I think taking health and games played into an account is an asset. Let’s see batting average do that...

[moonslav59]

I think taking health and games played into an account is an asset. Let’s see batting average do that...

 

Exactamundo!

 

Even my favorite stat to use, OPS, does not do that.

 

(And I often cite PAs when listing our team's OPS numbers.)

[S5Dewey]

Harmony does it daily...

 

I guess I missed that since I don't waste my time on troll's posts.

[oldtimer]

Isn't that a little unrealistically rosy?

 

It isn't a prediction of how we will do in any one year. It is the setting of goals to direct our thinking going forward. If it is clear the best way to make 2020 competitive is to compromise 2021 forward, then it becomes a tradeoff. We need a front office who can make those tradeoffs so that improving the farm, keeping people in the seats and having a progressively stronger team without totally dismissing 2020 are weighed. I personally would set a pay scale guidelines covering all the positions on the team and try to stick to those guidelines in agreeing to contracts. Right now the contracts tend to be out of balance and we may need to wait some of those out to return to full competitiveness.

[notin]

I guess I missed that since I don't waste my time on troll's posts.

 

Sometimes if he is comparing two players, he also incorporates their ages or compares them at the same ages. He’s been doing it since BDC. Remember his unpopular Will Middlebrooks/Mark Reynolds comparisons?

[S5Dewey]

Sometimes if he is comparing two players, he also incorporates their ages or compares them at the same ages. He’s been doing it since BDC. Remember his unpopular Will Middlebrooks/Mark Reynolds comparisons?

 

I don't, but it's ok. I do remember that he was posting as Hill back then. Ironic that a troll would choose the name Harmony though. Hmmm... subliminal messaging, maybe?

[harmony]

A harmonious poster respectfully offers substance free of personal attacks, name-calling, profanity and unfounded allegations.

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox WAR/Gm numbers:

 

.045 Bogey

.042 Devers

.037 Betts

.029 Vaz

.025 JD

.023 Beni

.019 Holt (just 62 games)

.013 Marco (just 38 games)

.007 Chavis

.007 JBJ

.006 Moreland (just 66 games)

 

WAR per IP

.028 Workman (58 IP)

.024 Sale

.024 Taylor (38 IP)

.022 Price

.021 DHern (23 IP)

.014 ERod

.008 Porcello

.007 Lakins

(All others are at 0 or below)

 

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox WAR/Gm numbers:

 

.045 Bogey

.042 Devers

.037 Betts

.029 Vaz

.025 JD

.023 Beni

.019 Holt (just 62 games)

.013 Marco (just 38 games)

.007 Chavis

.007 JBJ

.006 Moreland (just 66 games)

 

WAR per IP

.028 Workman (58 IP)

.024 Sale

.024 Taylor (38 IP)

.022 Price

.021 DHern (23 IP)

.014 ERod

.008 Porcello

.007 Lakins

(All others are at 0 or below)

 

 

Going by my "eye test," the only rankings I might take issue with (beyond those with tiny sample sizes) would be Vaz over JD and Chavis slightly ahead of JBJ. ERod looks a little low, but this is per inning not a cumulative value list.

[notin]

Whom could the Red Sox trade to Seattle for Keon Broxton, who should have three years of team control after this season?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml

 

He's been released twice this year. Do you think he suddenly has trade value?

[moonslav59]

He's been released twice this year. Do you think he suddenly has trade value?

 

This cracks me up!

[kenmeister]

I'm at the point in the season now where I only care about ERod starts. He has an outside shot of making 20, but even making 18 would be wonderful. Other than that, I'm watching the RBI and batting races, and that's about it.

[harmony]

He's been released twice this year. Do you think he suddenly has trade value?

Why would Seattle give away three years of Keon Broxton when the Mariners need outfielders to bridge the gap to touted prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Lewis?

 

At least one poster thinks Keon Broxton has value:

 

Personally I would love for the Sox to get Keon Broxton. Offense is inconsistent. Glove is excellent. Not enough “O”’s in “Smoooooth” to describe him out there...

[moonslav59]

Why would Seattle give away three years of Keon Broxton when the Mariners need outfielders to bridge the gap to touted prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Lewis?

 

At least one poster thinks Keon Broxton has value:

 

The point was about how much value a guy who has been DFA's twice this year has.

 

Last year, you wanted JBJ.

 

How about JBJ for Broxton and a prospect?

[notin]

Why would Seattle give away three years of Keon Broxton when the Mariners need outfielders to bridge the gap to touted prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Lewis?

 

At least one poster thinks Keon Broxton has value:

 

If the Mariners want anything better than Brian Johnson, the Sox can look elsewhere. Broxton was DFA'd by the Mets and Orioles already this year - two organizations that needed temporary outfield hep and decided Broxton was not it.

 

http://www.baseballtradevalues gives Broxton a surplus trade value of $0.5mill, which is less than Chris Owings. I think if the Sox offered just about anything, the Mainers would probably accept it. And if they didn't, the Red Sox would probably look elsewhere. They really might not even need to fill CF if they shift Betts or Benintendi to CF...

[Slasher9]

if the Sox shift benintendi to CF the Sox will need to fill CF position......

[Bellhorn04]

http://www.baseballtradevalues gives Broxton a surplus trade value of $0.5mill, which is less than Chris Owings.

 

I thought it was peculiar that harmony didn't refer to Broxton's surplus trade value...

[harmony]

If the Mariners want anything better than Brian Johnson, the Sox can look elsewhere. Broxton was DFA'd by the Mets and Orioles already this year - two organizations that needed temporary outfield hep and decided Broxton was not it.

 

http://www.baseballtradevalues gives Broxton a surplus trade value of $0.5mill, which is less than Chris Owings. I think if the Sox offered just about anything, the Mainers would probably accept it. And if they didn't, the Red Sox would probably look elsewhere. They really might not even need to fill CF if they shift Betts or Benintendi to CF...

The point was that a poster recommended the Red Sox acquire a player under another team's control for three more seasons. Unless that team releases Keon Broxton (which is a possibility), the Red Sox would need to trade for him.

 

And the Mariners may need Broxton more than the Sox do. The Red Sox should probably look elsewhere.

[notin]

if the Sox shift benintendi to CF the Sox will need to fill CF position......

 

I don't exepct him to be JBJ out there. But it's not like every flyball to CF will automatically become a hit, either. With Betts in RF covering a significant amount of territory, Bradley has been somehwta held back defensively anyway, as he simply doesn't have as many opportunities as a lot of other CFs.

 

But then a lot of that assumes the Sox go for the full reset (per some rumor somewhere), and they need to replace him. I could see them getting another CF or a corner OF and shifting either player over...

[notin]

The point was that a poster recommended the Red Sox acquire a player under another team's control for three more seasons. Unless that team releases Keon Broxton (which is a possibility), the Red Sox would need to trade for him.

 

And the Mariners may need Broxton more than the Sox do. The Red Sox should probably look elsewhere.

 

There's actually a decent chance Seattle decides their "gap" to their prospects can be filled by Santana, Smith and Haniger. Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming "KEEP ME"...

[notin]

I thought it was peculiar that harmony didn't refer to Broxton's surplus trade value...

 

It was not a point in his favor...

[moonslav59]

if the Sox shift benintendi to CF the Sox will need to fill CF position......

 

...yes, when they move him back to LF after the failure in center.

[harmony]

There's actually a decent chance Seattle decides their "gap" to their prospects can be filled by Santana, Smith and Haniger. Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming "KEEP ME"...

Domingo Santana is unlikely to be patrolling the outfield for Seattle in 2020.

 

"Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming" the Red Sox "COVET ME.":)

[moonslav59]

Domingo Santana is unlikely to be patrolling the outfield for Seattle in 2020.

 

"Broxton's .514 OPS in Seattle isn't screaming" the Red Sox "COVET ME.":)

 

Okay, it's 529 in 2019 over 200 or so PAs.

 

JBJ's was .520 after 174 PAs this year.

 

One will make $10.5M next year: the other maybe $600K.

 

We are just talking about possible options for replacing JBJ in CF without losing anything on defense. It's a way to save $10M.

 

Yes, we may have to give you Brian Johnson or some other guy we are thinking of DFA'ing, but so what?

[harmony]

Okay, it's 529 in 2019 over 200 or so PAs.

 

JBJ's was .520 after 174 PAs this year.

 

One will make $10.5M next year: the other maybe $600K.

 

We are just talking about possible options for replacing JBJ in CF without losing anything on defense. It's a way to save $10M.

 

Yes, we may have to give you Brian Johnson or some other guy we are thinking of DFA'ing, but so what?

This poster did not bring Keon Broxton's name into this thread. His inclusion was merely odd because Broxton is under another team's control.

[moonslav59]

This poster did not bring Keon Broxton's name into this thread. His inclusion was merely odd because Broxton is under another team's control.

 

The discussion was about FA CF'ers AND player felt to be available or could be available at a low return cost.

 

Clearly a guy who was DFA'd twice may be easy to trade for.

[harmony]

The discussion was about FA CF'ers AND player felt to be available or could be available at a low return cost.

 

Clearly a guy who was DFA'd twice may be easy to trade for.

The follow-up question was essentially: How easy?

[moonslav59]

The follow-up question was essentially: How easy?

 

Not really.

 

He could be DFA'd again.

 

His return cost in trade should be between very little and extremely little.

 

If you want to debate whether it might be Brian Johnson vs Hector Velazquez, then I'll stay out of that discussion.

 

You never answered my question. Last year, you wanted JBJ. Would you trade Broxton for JBJ?