A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

The season is not even over, but for some, like myself, looking forward to next year (and beyond) offers more to think and talk about than the remainder of the 2019 season. There is a lot of unknowns about next year.

 

Who will be the GM?

Will we reset the luxury tax and begin some sort of rebuild?

Will we re-sign any of our free agents to be or try to extend Betts?

Will JBJ, Leon and others still under team control be back?

How good can we be under each spending plan we choose?

If we choose to rebuild, how long might it take to become a top contender again and will anyone on the team now be here to see it?

 

Here's a look at the specifics of our current roster and how it relates to next season:

 

Free Agents:

Brock Holt (perhaps the only one who may be back)

Rick Porcello (the innings eater departs)

Mitch Moreland (the oft-injured one departs)

Steve Pearce (We hardly knew ya!)

Andrew Cashner (Just didn't work out here)

 

Likely Deadwood:

Dustin Pedroia (Chances are just too slight for hopes.)

Rusney Castillo (Not on 40 man- last year of contract)

 

Possible Trade Fillers, Non Tenders or DFA Candidates:

Jackie Bradley Jr. (Will hate to see him go.)

Steven Wright (How much more can we take?)

Sandy Leon (Is being Sale's caddy enough?)

Ryan Brasier (pre-arb)

Brian Johnson (No options left)

Hector Velazquez (pre-arb)

Mike Shawaryn (pre-arb)

Colten Brewer (pre-arb)

Sam Travis (pre-arb- may keep around)

Tzu-Wei Lin (pre-arb- may keep around)

Ryan Weber (pre-arb)

Travis Lakins (pre-arb)

Bobby Poyner (pre-arb)

Trevor Kelley (pre-arb)

Joey Curletta (pre-arb)

Chris Owings (pre-arb)

1-2 Arbs left (Trade if Rebuilding or Keep if Not?)

Mookie Betts (1 arb left)

Brandon Workman (1 arb)

Eduardo Rodriguez (2 arbs)

Matt Barnes (2 arbs)

Heath Hembree (2 arbs)

 

Certain Keepers (Hard to trade due to Contract Cost):

Chris Sale

David Price

JD Martinez

Nathan Eovaldi

 

Certain Keepers (Build Around the Core/Promising pre-arb Players))

Raphel Devers (pre-arb)

Xander Bogaerts

Andrew Benintendi (3 arbs)

Christian Vazquez

Michael Chavis (pre-arb- could be traded or be handed 1B or 2B)

Marcus Walden (pre-arb)

Josh Taylor (pre-arb)

Marco Hernandez (pre-arb)

 

Rule 5 Candidates:

Christopher Acosta

Fabian Andrade

Yoan Aybar

Roldani Baldwin

Eduard Bazardo

Gary Calvo

Marino Campana

Pedro Castellanos

Rusney Castillo

CJ Chatham

Jake Cosart

Ricardo Cubillan

Bobby Dalbec

Enmanuel De Jesus

Chad De La Guerra

Jhonathan Diaz

Jerry Downs

Devon Fisher

Matthew Gorst

Kyle Hart

Trenton Kemp

Matt Kent

Adam Lau

Nick Lovullo

Everlouis Lozada

Tate Matheny

Samuel Miranda

Oddanier Mosqueda

Josh Ockimey

Angel Padron

Yorvin Pantoja

Keibert Petit

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Kleiber Rodriguez

Jake Romanski

Jagger Rusconi

Alberto Schmidt

Andrew Schwaab

Nick Sciortino

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Kervin Suarez

Luke Tendler

Josh Tobias

Marcus Wilson

 

It might be a hard winter to debate, until we know what the spending choice will be. I'm leaning towards re-setting this winter, but going for one more ring in 2020 and re-setting after 2020 might be more likely. Then again, maybe we never re-set.

 

Let's keep it real, and keep personal attacks on other threads.

 

I'll do a budget analysis, soon.

[S5Dewey]

I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

 

I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

 

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

[moonslav59]

I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

 

I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

 

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

 

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

 

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

 

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

 

I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

 

I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.

 

 

[notin]

JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

 

I like JBJ but in no way is he any type of insurance on Mookie’s departure. Mookie is an MVP. Bradley is a one time All Star with good defense and remarkably inconsistent offense who is set to make $10-12mill.

 

Obviously we don’t know for certain if a reset is in the plans, but it makes more sense to do it after 2019 than 2020. Resetting after 2019 allows the Sox to spend HEAVILY on Betts at minimal penalty. Resetting after 2020 would mean Betts is definitely not coming back.

 

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

 

I expect JD to stay, but obviously the only man he’ll be talking to is Scott Boras. But JD makes $23mill in 2020 and then his salary drops to $19.8mill for 2021 and 2022. As he can also opt out after 2020, I expect he might opt out after 2020 and try to get a 3-4 year deal at a lower AAV...

[Nick]

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

 

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

 

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

 

I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

 

I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.

 

 

 

You are what your offensive stats say you are.....and JBJ is not a very good hitter despite positive streaks that surfaces from time to time. I agree that good defensive center fielders are not hard to find. $10M can go long ways in finding a back end starter or couple of relievers.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

 

Names?

[notin]

Names?

 

The free agent market will have:

Juan Lagares

Cameron Maybin

Billy Hamilton

Jarrod Dyson

 

Via trade, some possibilities include:

Ender Inciarte

Michael Taylor

Travis Jankowski

Kevin Pillar

 

Inciarte is a great fit and Atlanta is ready to move on...

[Bellhorn04]

E-Rod is certainly making a case to be part of the team's future.

[notin]

E-Rod is certainly making a case to be part of the team's future.

 

For 2020, it’s a safe bet we know who 4 of the starters are.

 

The questions surround:

the fifth starter

1b/2b/Chavis

bullpen

center field

[Bellhorn04]

We can't forget that Chris Sale's status for 2020 is still up in the air. He's to be re-evaluated by Dr. Andrews in 5+ weeks.

[notin]

We can't forget that Chris Sale's status for 2020 is still up in the air. He's to be re-evaluated by Dr. Andrews in 5+ weeks.

 

Very true.

 

If it turns out Sale can’t go for 2020, the Sox might as unload Betts and maybe a couple others capable of getting a good return...

[S5Dewey]

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

 

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

 

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

 

 

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.

Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

 

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.

So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

 

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

 

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

 

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

[notin]

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.

Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

 

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.

So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

 

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

 

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

 

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

 

I wouldn’t say the Sox chances of re-signing Mookie are highly unlikely. The chances of extending him before free agency? Sure.

 

If theSix reset the limit in 2020, they will be able to spend again with minimal penalties. They already have an advantage over 3/4 of MLB in that they can afford the type of contract Mookie wants.

 

It’s not really fair to say “Well, where do you think he’ll go?” But his options will be limited just because of his asking price. And Boston van position themselves to afford his demands better by resetting this coming year.

 

If changes of him re-signing are truly highly unlikely, might as well trade him...

[S5Dewey]

I wouldn’t say the Sox chances of re-signing Mookie are highly unlikely. The chances of extending him before free agency? Sure.

 

If theSix reset the limit in 2020, they will be able to spend again with minimal penalties. They already have an advantage over 3/4 of MLB in that they can afford the type of contract Mookie wants.

 

It’s not really fair to say “Well, where do you think he’ll go?” But his options will be limited just because of his asking price. And Boston van position themselves to afford his demands better by resetting this coming year.

 

If changes of him re-signing are truly highly unlikely, might as well trade him...

 

So to capsulize this... and please correct me if you meant something else... you're an advocate of something short of a Fire Sale for 2020, & holding onto Mookie in hopes that he can be resigned in 2021?

 

Moon could probably answer this question but I have to wonder exactly how many (contributing) players we'd have to unload to get a reset large enough to allow us to sign Mookie given that most of our money is tied up in non-contributing pitchers. I'm looking at YOU, David Price & Chris Sale.

 

The good news in that plan.. if this can be considered good news... is that we still don't know the situation with Sale. TJ surgery still hasn't been ruled out for him. If he has to miss 2020 to come back in 2021 the timing may be right for his comeback - but the salary is still there.

[notin]

So to capsulize this... and please correct me if you meant something else... you're an advocate of something short of a Fire Sale for 2020, & holding onto Mookie in hopes that he can be resigned in 2021?

 

Moon could probably answer this question but I have to wonder exactly how many (contributing) players we'd have to unload to get a reset large enough to allow us to sign Mookie given that most of our money is tied up in non-contributing pitchers. I'm looking at YOU, David Price & Chris Sale.

 

The good news in that plan.. if this can be considered good news... is that we still don't know the situation with Sale. TJ surgery still hasn't been ruled out for him. If he has to miss 2020 to come back in 2021 the timing may be right for his comeback - but the salary is still there.

 

From previous conversations with moon, the Sox could get under the limit and keep Mookie, which surprised me given we really don’t know what Mookie’s salary is.

 

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

 

I also think the Sox should consider trading Barnes and Dalbec, but that also doesn’t make it a fire sale. Especially if they target major leaguers in return...

[moonslav59]

Names?

 

I've named quite a few several times but can only remember Billy Hamilton and Ligares. I think Dyson might be available, too. All will cost way less than JBJ's arb.

[S5Dewey]

From previous conversations with moon, the Sox could get under the limit and keep Mookie, which surprised me given we really don’t know what Mookie’s salary is.

 

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

 

I also think the Sox should consider trading Barnes and Dalbec, but that also doesn’t make it a fire sale. Especially if they target major leaguers in return...

Of course that's all precipitated on the idea that we can resign Mookie, which is far from being a done deal.

 

So are you talking about releasing only JBJ, or are you also talking about parting with other players too? Which LT limit are you thinking about getting under? Because when I hear "reset" I'm hearing a total reset, to down below the first limit, and IMO that's going to involve losing more than just JBJ.

 

But again, I wouldn't reset this year. I'd wait another year. By then the outfield picture will be clearer. There is a core group of players who bring excellence to their positions. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez & JBJ. Those are the folks I'd build around. And of course Mookie if he gets resigned. If Mookie gets into the fold then and only then would I even consider parting with JBJ. I'd be making one more run at it with those five + a few additions in the off season.

[moonslav59]

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.

Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

 

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.

So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

 

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

 

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

 

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

 

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

 

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

 

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

 

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

[Bellhorn04]

Billy Hamilton's bat would make the game threaders pine for JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Of course that's all precipitated on the idea that we can resign Mookie, which is far from being a done deal.

 

So are you talking about releasing only JBJ, or are you also talking about parting with other players too? Which LT limit are you thinking about getting under? Because when I hear "reset" I'm hearing a total reset, to down below the first limit, and IMO that's going to involve losing more than just JBJ.

 

But again, I wouldn't reset this year. I'd wait another year. By then the outfield picture will be clearer. There is a core group of players who bring excellence to their positions. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez & JBJ. Those are the folks I'd build around. And of course Mookie if he gets resigned. If Mookie gets into the fold then and only then would I even consider parting with JBJ. I'd be making one more run at it with those five + a few additions in the off season.

 

It all depends on the reset or not, but if we reset after 2019, I think we'd only have to lose JBJ and not replace Porcello, Moreland, Pearce or Cashner with any costly FA.

 

We'd have to go with some sort of mix of Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Marco/Chatham/Lin at 1B-2B (back up DH/SS/3B) and cobble together the rest of the pitching staff for just one year, then, perhaps we spend large on Betts and pitchers or someone else and pitchers' if Betts wants more than we are willing to pay.

 

I'm not saying our future is rosy, but I'm trying to think of ways to minimize the down years while keeping our essential young and prime core players onboard. The damn budget just does not allow for spending $10+M on a .730 GG CF'er who is starting to decline.

[moonslav59]

Billy Hamilton's bat would make the game threaders pine for JBJ.

 

No doubt, but there would not be the flashes of brilliance that drive us crazy. My thought is many here would rather have a steady .650 guy than one who hits .500 for 3 months, .650 for 2 months and 1.100 for one. (Not me)

[S5Dewey]

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

 

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

 

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

 

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

 

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

 

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

 

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

 

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

[S5Dewey]

 

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

 

Are you really comparing JBJ to Sandy Leon?? Wasn't Leon put on waivers last year and nobody wanted him?? Throw JBJ on the waiver wire and see how many teams want him.

[OH FOY]

Here's where we stand right now, for Payroll, in 2020.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2020/

 

Says we have 56,666,667 in Cap Space. Tough to keep it under Luxury Tax. Just Betts alone will be over 20 million.

Just want to point out Rusney is not on the Luxury Tax Cap.

Edited August 24, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Looks like 5 guys take up 115 Million Dollars, not counting Pedroia.

[notin]

Are you really comparing JBJ to Sandy Leon?? Wasn't Leon put on waivers last year and nobody wanted him?? Throw JBJ on the waiver wire and see how many teams want him.

 

Irrelevant.

 

Bradley makes $8.8mill and will get somewhere in the $10-12 mill range in arbitration. Dombrowski isn’t going to pay that much for a glove only CF. No team is

 

So when Bradley reaches free agency, the Sox will approach him with an offer. If it’s the best offer, he comes back. And it might be the best offer.

 

If you don’t like the Leon comp (for irrelevant reasons, Oakland did the same with Mike Fiers

[OH FOY]

This is 2021.

Says we have Only 58+milion in Cap Space.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2021/

[OH FOY]

I see no Major Free Agents for 2 years at least, unless Henry wants to keep paying, Luxury Tax. Sox have to get rid of Salary, I would guess. But, Sox will have to Pay some to move them.

Like Price, Sale, Eovaldi.

Edited August 24, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Sox should go for it next year. Then Betts is gone, JBJ might be gone. Keep both this Off-Season. Let Betts go and get what? Too valuable, JBJ salary not going to break the Bank. When your paying Eovaldi 17 million.

[OH FOY]

Yanks next Off Season will have only 41.300 in Cap space, but most of the Salaries, are Pre-Arbitration, or Arbitration1. Not expensive.

Then in 2021 it jumps up to 99,800, in Cap space.

Dodgers next year will have over 91+,illion in Cap space.

2021 it goes to 121+ million in Cap Space.

Astros will have 104+million in Cap Space in 2020, and 144+,illion in Cap Space in 2021. Plenty to sign some of there kids.

This why you build a Farm.