Sale to IL with elbow injury

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I just don't have the confidence in the Yankees that many have.

 

 

I think your analysis will be proved correct. The Yankees had a real shot to win a championship this year, but Cashman blew it when he failed to upgrade the starting rotation. Maybe he would have acted if the Astros acquired Grienke 24 hours earlier, I don't know, but I do wonder if the timing of the Grienke trade (last minute) was part of the Astros strategy. As we all know, the Astros are an incredibly smart organization. Once the Astros acquired Grienke, and the Yankees were left with nothing, the contrast between the two organizations became very clear.

 

Sure, the Dodgers didn't do anything either, but the Dodgers were looking for bullpen pieces, not rotation help and the Dodgers believe that they have the young arms in the farm system who can help in the bullpen in October. I think they plan to move Maeda to the bullpen in October as well.

 

Want to have a good laugh? Project the Yankees starting rotation in October and then compare it to Verlander, Cole, and Grienke. Depending on who they play in the first round, the Yankees could be one and done in the playoffs. If the Yankees get lucky, maybe they make it to the ALCS, but the Astros will destroy them, similar to how the Red Sox totally destroyed the Yankees in the playoffs last year. There will be a lot of upset Yankees fans this October. Can't wait.

[moonslav59]

I have little "faith" the Yanks will win it all.

 

(I don't like the word "faith" when talking about any other team,let alone the Yankees.)

 

I'd put the Astros & Dodgers ahead of the Yanks.

 

Cleveland (especially if Kluber returns) and some other NL teams could surprise.

 

1) Astros

2) Dodgers

3) Yankees

[jacksonianmarch]

I have little "faith" the Yanks will win it all.

 

(I don't like the word "faith" when talking about any other team,let alone the Yankees.)

 

I'd put the Astros & Dodgers ahead of the Yanks.

 

Cleveland (especially if Kluber returns) and some other NL teams could surprise.

 

1) Astros

2) Dodgers

3) Yankees

 

The Astros don't scare me if we can get home field. Right now we have home field, but I expect a dogfight to the finish for it. Verlander is tough, but we have hit Cole and Greinke is a choke artist when the lights are bright. The team I expect to need help with is the Dodgers. They've got a deep, deep offense and a very deep pitching staff full of guys who would cause us problems. We don't suffer vs RH power pitchers. But the control, crafty shitballers give us fits and the Dodgers have 3 of them in their rotation. The difference in all of this will be when we unleash our pen. If we can be tied or have a lead when the pen enters, then I take our chances vs anyone.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but had DD been perfect and signed Morton and Ottavino, instead of Pearce and Eovaldi, how many wins would that have amounted to?

 

Per Year:

2019:

$24M ($15M Morton +$9M Ottavino)

$23.5M ($17M Eovaldi+ $6.25M Pearce)

 

Total

$74.25M ($68M Eovaldi + $6.25M)

$57M ($30M Morton + $27M Ottavino)

 

We'd have saved $15+M overall, too.

 

Jeezus, moon, why do you torture yourself and us with stuff like this.

 

Morton's deal is only 2 years, of course, not 4 like Eovaldi's.

 

Let's just be happy the Yanks didn't sign both those guys.

 

I think there were some reports Morton wanted to play for a team in the south.

[S5Dewey]

The Astros don't scare me if we can get home field.

 

Correction: "The Astros don't scare me if we can get that short RF porch going for us. We need some kind of a built-in advantage to beat those guys!"

[Slasher9]

Correction: "The Astros don't scare me if we can get that short RF porch going for us. We need some kind of a built-in advantage to beat those guys!"

 

yup. plus fans reaching over the wall to steal homeruns. f*** the yankees. they are the worst 100 win team in the history of baseball. its a joke.

[Bellhorn04]

Even Jax must be nervous about that starting rotation.

[Slasher9]

Even Jax must be nervous about that starting rotation.

 

no. i think he is on record saying he is not because they "wilt" under the spotlight.....

[harmony]

yup. plus fans reaching over the wall to steal homeruns. f*** the yankees. they are the worst 100 win team in the history of baseball. its a joke.

Yankee fans must be laughing at Red Sox fans who denigrate a Yankee club that holds a 16-game lead over the Red Sox.

 

The current Red Sox record is closer to the record of the lowly Seattle Mariners than to the current Yankee record.

[jacksonianmarch]

no. i think he is on record saying he is not because they "wilt" under the spotlight.....

 

I don't love the rotation, to be honest. I like Tanaka in the post season. I like a rested Severino if he returns healthy, for about 4 innings. I like Paxton for the most part because of what he can do, but have been underwhelmed by his performance. German has been good this year, but he's beyond his innings cap and I would be very careful with allowing him to go deep in any playoff game. If we have to tap into anything beyond those 4, then I am not happy. I also don't like that Paxton allows a run or more in the first in every game he pitches. Early deficits in the postseason are killers.

 

If I had to rely on this rotation to go 6 and hand us a lead, I would absolutely not be happy. Since I need 4, maybe 5 innings and can reliably expect my pen to dominate from there, then we can roll with them

[Slasher9]

Yankee fans must be laughing at Red Sox fans who denigrate a Yankee club that holds a 16-game lead over the Red Sox.

 

The current Red Sox record is closer to the record of the lowly Seattle Mariners than to the current Yankee record.

 

could be. or it could be they are laughing at the lowly seattle mariners fan posting on the red sox site. or not.

[Slasher9]

I don't love the rotation, to be honest. I like Tanaka in the post season. I like a rested Severino if he returns healthy, for about 4 innings. I like Paxton for the most part because of what he can do, but have been underwhelmed by his performance. German has been good this year, but he's beyond his innings cap and I would be very careful with allowing him to go deep in any playoff game. If we have to tap into anything beyond those 4, then I am not happy. I also don't like that Paxton allows a run or more in the first in every game he pitches. Early deficits in the postseason are killers.

 

If I had to rely on this rotation to go 6 and hand us a lead, I would absolutely not be happy. Since I need 4, maybe 5 innings and can reliably expect my pen to dominate from there, then we can roll with them

 

if severino comes back and is close to acelike severino the yankees starting pitching for the postseason will certainly be less worrisome. the yankees vs astros matchup (if it happens) will be fascinating for baseball fans to watch.

[moonslav59]

Yankee fans must be laughing at Red Sox fans who denigrate a Yankee club that holds a 16-game lead over the Red Sox.

 

The current Red Sox record is closer to the record of the lowly Seattle Mariners than to the current Yankee record.

 

It's not denigration to say I feel they have the 3rd best chance to win it all. Nobody has had a better than 50-50 chance of winning it all going into the playoffs that I remember.

 

The percentages of winning it all, to me, is something like this:

 

30% HOU

28% LAD

25% NYY

17% the rest of the field.

 

I'd say giving the Yanks a 25% chance to 17% for the 7 teams is giving them a lot of credit.

 

To me, SP'ing means much more in the playoffs, especially your best 2-3 starters, who start 80% of the games not 50-60% as the regular season shows.

 

Best SP'ers by WAR

6. Cole 4.5

7. Verlander 4.4

9. Buehler 4.3

11. Greinke 4.1

12. Ryu 4/1

21. Kershaw 3.4

 

39. Tanaka 2.5

47. Paxton 2.3

52. Maeda 2.0

53. Miley 2.0

 

By ERA-

1. Ryu 39

5. Verlander 63

7. Greinke 63

12. Cole 65

19. Miley 72 (Why can't we get guys like him? Thanks, Ben.)

22. Buehler 74

 

53. German 90

66. Paxton 97

69. Tanaka 98

 

The Guardians and Rays both have at least 2 SP'ers better than the Yankee 3. Hell, even the Sox have 3!

 

Now, before you start going off on how important the pen is, the Yanks have the best, but others are much closer to them than the Yank's distance behind in SP'ing.

 

Team Pen WAR

1. NYY 6.3

2. TBR 6.0

3. MN 4.9

4. CLE 4.7

9. HOU 4.0

16. LAD 2.3

(BOS is 6th at 4.5)

 

xFIP

1. Hou 3.97

5. NYY 4.25

5. BOS 4.29

13. LAD 4.45

 

WHIP

2. HOU 1.20

3. LAD 1.21

4. TBR 1.21

5. CLE 1.26

 

8. NYY 1.33

11. BOS 1.35

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You really cannot use TB's pen WAR. 2.4 of that WAR is Ryan Yarbrough acting as the bulk guy.

 

Also, the Yanks have the kind of pen that a team dreams of. Guys who have proven to be effective over their careers. Power arms with high K rates. Former closers who are now in a setup role. An ace closer who played a crucial role in winning a WS. And that WAR includes no contribution from Betances, who is going to return next month.

 

If we can stay/get healthy in the pen, our alignment of Kahnle, Betances, Ottavino, Britton and Chapman effectively makes the 5th inning the inning an opposing team needs a lead in order to beat the Yanks or have to come back against 5 dominant relievers. That's the Yanks calling card for the POs. A dynamic and deep offense. A rotation that features a proven post season pitcher with a bunch of promise over production and a pen that can take the game from the end of the 4th inning to the close without burning anyone out. If our offense can tie or beat the opposition through 4 innings, then we will likely win

[notin]

You really cannot use TB's pen WAR. 2.4 of that WAR is Ryan Yarbrough acting as the bulk guy.

 

Also, the Yanks have the kind of pen that a team dreams of. Guys who have proven to be effective over their careers. Power arms with high K rates. Former closers who are now in a setup role. An ace closer who played a crucial role in winning a WS. And that WAR includes no contribution from Betances, who is going to return next month.

 

If we can stay/get healthy in the pen, our alignment of Kahnle, Betances, Ottavino, Britton and Chapman effectively makes the 5th inning the inning an opposing team needs a lead in order to beat the Yanks or have to come back against 5 dominant relievers. That's the Yanks calling card for the POs. A dynamic and deep offense. A rotation that features a proven post season pitcher with a bunch of promise over production and a pen that can take the game from the end of the 4th inning to the close without burning anyone out. If our offense can tie or beat the opposition through 4 innings, then we will likely win

 

The Yankees' problem won't be getting 4 good innings from their bullpen. It will be getting the 5 good innings from the rotation...

[jacksonianmarch]

If you count Chapman, Ottavino, Kahnle, and Britton, those 4 have a WAR of 5. They also have something else in common. Kahnle is the outlier here as a flyball pitcher, but Ottavino, Chapman and Britton keep the ball in the yard. Ottavino has a 0.65HR/9IP, which is stellar. It's higher than Britton's and almost double Chapman's. Betances return should add to that, with his career HR/9IP of 0.65. Britton is the only guy who doesn't have elite K numbers, yet his GB numbers are insane and contribute a considerable amount of GIDP's. This pen is phenomenal. Give them the ball with a lead and we will win a title.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees' problem won't be getting 4 good innings from their bullpen. It will be getting the 5 good innings from the rotation...

 

We need 4 innings from our starters

[notin]

We need 4 innings from our starters

 

So... tax the bullpen during the post-season? Not a good strategy...

[Slasher9]

So... tax the bullpen during the post-season? Not a good strategy...

 

but they are lockdown / lights out!?!

[notin]

but they are lockdown / lights out!?!

 

They will be for a while. But if you need them for 28 innings in a 7 game series, fatigue and overexposure could become a huge problem...

[harmony]

It's not denigration to say I feel they have the 3rd best chance to win it all.

No argument there.

 

It's denigration to call the remarkable 2019 Yankees a joke and "the worst 100 win team in the history of baseball."

 

And I'm no fan of the New York Yankees.

Edited August 22, 2019 by harmony

[Slasher9]

No argument there.

 

It's denigration to call the remarkable 2019 Yankees a joke and "the worst 100 win team in the history of baseball."

 

well Pythagorean will agree with me after game 162. so theres that.

[notin]

No argument there.

 

It's denigration to call the remarkable 2019 Yankees a joke and "the worst 100 win team in the history of baseball."

 

Right now, current odd (from whatever date) have the Yankees second behind Los Angeles.

 

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/mlb/world-series/

[jacksonianmarch]

They will be for a while. But if you need them for 28 innings in a 7 game series, fatigue and overexposure could become a huge problem...

 

You don’t go to the good ones if you aren’t close. Also, a 7 game series has at least 2 off days built in and in some cases 3. But tax the pen is what you do in the playoffs if the pen is your best asset

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now, current odd (from whatever date) have the Yankees second behind Los Angeles.

 

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/mlb/world-series/

 

Probably because the Astros are scuffling

[notin]

Right now, current odd (from whatever date) have the Yankees second behind Los Angeles.

 

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/mlb/world-series/

 

Baseball Reference does have them third, behind Houston and just ahead of Atlanta.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-playoff-odds.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

No argument there.

 

It's denigration to call the remarkable 2019 Yankees a joke and "the worst 100 win team in the history of baseball."

 

Spaces jointly occupied by Red Sox fans and Yankee fans are not denigration-free zones.

[notin]

You don’t go to the good ones if you aren’t close. Also, a 7 game series has at least 2 off days built in and in some cases 3. But tax the pen is what you do in the playoffs if the pen is your best asset

 

It's not just the rest days. It's the overexposure to the same hitters, too. Unlike during the regular season, it's the same hitters for all seven consecutive games....

[jacksonianmarch]

You hopes it’s only 4

[FredLynn]

If you count Chapman, Ottavino, Kahnle, and Britton, those 4 have a WAR of 5. They also have something else in common. Kahnle is the outlier here as a flyball pitcher, but Ottavino, Chapman and Britton keep the ball in the yard. Ottavino has a 0.65HR/9IP, which is stellar. It's higher than Britton's and almost double Chapman's. Betances return should add to that, with his career HR/9IP of 0.65. Britton is the only guy who doesn't have elite K numbers, yet his GB numbers are insane and contribute a considerable amount of GIDP's. This pen is phenomenal. Give them the ball with a lead and we will win a title.

 

Using ERA as a gauge, the Guardians, the Rays, the A's, the Astros, and the Dodgers all have a better bullpen than the Yankees. Now you might say the ERA is a poor marker for excellence, but its not like the Yankees have THE dominant pen. In fact, they are pretty ordinary when compared to other potential playoff teams. The Yankees have a chance for a ring...but they should not be favored to win it because their SP is substandard, ranking 19th in MLB in ERA. There isn't another playoff bound team with that kind of mediocre SPing.