The Rafael Devers Performance Thread

[moonslav59]

Smallest Outfields in MLB

 

1. Fenway Park (Red Sox)

2. Progressive Field (Guardians)

3. Citizens Bank Park (Phillies)

4. Great American Ball Park (Reds)

5. Yankees Stadium (Yankees)

 

https://community.fangraphs.com/complete-outfield-dimensions/

 

You guys don't have a high wall in your short RF.

 

Park dimensions don't take into account the height of walls.

 

The Left-Center Field wall is high, too, and the CF wall is higher than probably everyone else's, too.

 

[Carpin]

Talking about ballpark factors, look at this table, very surprised to see YS in the bottom third in every category.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

 

 

Based on this, for HR the top 3 are Toronto, Colorado and Baltimore (no surprise here), Fenway at 21 and yankee Stadium at 26.

 

Not sure if I'm reading this right, any help will be welcome.

[moonslav59]

When you have one side of your park with short fences and the other with long ones, the pitchers can pitch in ways that make it difficult to hit HRs.

 

They force hitter to hit where the park is long.

[Carpin]

Then the theory of the hr friendly park goes away, there's no denying of the RF joke in YS but it looks like it doesn't contribute that much on the overall hr number.

[moonslav59]

Then the theory of the hr friendly park goes away, there's no denying of the RF joke in YS but it looks like it doesn't contribute that much on the overall hr number.

 

The theory is sound- just not for Yankee & Fenway Parks.

[notin]

Talking about ballpark factors, look at this table, very surprised to see YS in the bottom third in every category.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

 

 

Based on this, for HR the top 3 are Toronto, Colorado and Baltimore (no surprise here), Fenway at 21 and yankee Stadium at 26.

 

Not sure if I'm reading this right, any help will be welcome.

 

But with Fenway, is it the ballpark or Porcello?

[moonslav59]

But with Fenway, is it the ballpark or Porcello?

 

HRs Allowed

 

25 Porcello (27 last year)

24 Sale (11)

22 ERod (16)

15 Price (25)

[jacksonianmarch]

The one thing you are going to need to see from Devers is the ball going over the fence a little more. His power is undeniable, but his frequency of homers will rise as he ages. His BABIP says his results this year aren’t sustainable. A .360 BABIP is pretty tough to keep up. His K rate dropping really helped him. He’s an undeniable star, but I doubt he sustains the BA long term. He’s a .300-30-100 guy likely perennially for the next 10 years. He reminds me of Cano

[moonslav59]

The one thing you are going to need to see from Devers is the ball going over the fence a little more. His power is undeniable, but his frequency of homers will rise as he ages. His BABIP says his results this year aren’t sustainable. A .360 BABIP is pretty tough to keep up. His K rate dropping really helped him. He’s an undeniable star, but I doubt he sustains the BA long term. He’s a .300-30-100 guy likely perennially for the next 10 years. He reminds me of Cano

 

I wouldn't say we "need" more HRs, but I think he will hit more as he ages. As for the BA, I'm not sure that will dip from his career number now. The guy hits the ball hard and it doesn't seem to matter how he is pitched to.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys said the same thing about Betts last year and it corrected in a single season. Now, Betts is still an eminently useful player and on pace for nearly 6 WAR and a single good streak from a .900 OPS, but expecting guys to hit .360 on balls in play isn’t realistic unless the exit velo is insane (Judge for example). Devers also doesn’t have the benefit of great speed, so he might even dip under and even out over time.

 

That being said, he’d be helped by keeping the 16% K rate and upping himself to 35 homers or so. That 35 for 132 (.16X600=96 K’s) removal will only lower the BA slightly

[moonslav59]

You guys said the same thing about Betts last year and it corrected in a single season. Now, Betts is still an eminently useful player and on pace for nearly 6 WAR and a single good streak from a .900 OPS, but expecting guys to hit .360 on balls in play isn’t realistic unless the exit velo is insane (Judge for example). Devers also doesn’t have the benefit of great speed, so he might even dip under and even out over time.

 

That being said, he’d be helped by keeping the 16% K rate and upping himself to 35 homers or so. That 35 for 132 (.16X600=96 K’s) removal will only lower the BA slightly

 

If you were talking about me, all I said was that it is not unreasonable to expect him to have 1-2 similar seasons at some point, not necessarily in 2019. I still believe that. Most players who have seasons like that have another similar one.

[illinoisredsox]

You guys said the same thing about Betts last year and it corrected in a single season. Now, Betts is still an eminently useful player and on pace for nearly 6 WAR and a single good streak from a .900 OPS, but expecting guys to hit .360 on balls in play isn’t realistic unless the exit velo is insane (Judge for example). Devers also doesn’t have the benefit of great speed, so he might even dip under and even out over time.

 

That being said, he’d be helped by keeping the 16% K rate and upping himself to 35 homers or so. That 35 for 132 (.16X600=96 K’s) removal will only lower the BA slightly

 

Devers is 9th in the majors in average exit velocity (Judge leads). He also leads the majors in balls hit at 95+ mph (he has over twice as many as Judge by the way).

[moonslav59]

Devers is 9th in the majors in average exit velocity (Judge leads). He also leads the majors in balls hit at 95+ mph (he has over twice as many as Judge by the way).

Yes, and a higher BAbip that is fueled by hitting the ball hard so much is easier to sustain.

[oldtimer]

You guys said the same thing about Betts last year and it corrected in a single season. Now, Betts is still an eminently useful player and on pace for nearly 6 WAR and a single good streak from a .900 OPS, but expecting guys to hit .360 on balls in play isn’t realistic unless the exit velo is insane (Judge for example). Devers also doesn’t have the benefit of great speed, so he might even dip under and even out over time.

 

That being said, he’d be helped by keeping the 16% K rate and upping himself to 35 homers or so. That 35 for 132 (.16X600=96 K’s) removal will only lower the BA slightly

 

Betts has a ow strikeout rate (even though it seems he swings at the bad ones and takes the good ones). He also has an equal number of walks to strikeouts. That is a very good trait. I think he tends to hit too many balls to CF where they turn into outs. Maybe more pull would be better.

 

Dever is incredible. He seems to have an inate ability that is lacking in most ML players. I expect him to have a great career.

[Slasher9]

Devers is better then anyone in the Yankees lineup.

[moonslav59]

Devers is better then anyone in the Yankees lineup.

 

This year, maybe only Trout is better.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers is better then anyone in the Yankees lineup.

 

This year, I’d agree. I still think the power disparity allows a healthy Judge to surpass him. I would also like to see what Judge can do if he could figure out how to approach the ball inside. Two years ago, during his ROY campaign, he was pulling everything. You got him out by going away. Last year, he was hitting pitches where they were pitched and if it wasn’t for the freak wrist injury, he’d probably have been a 6-7 WAR player. This year, he’s hit every single one of his homeruns to RF. Now, not bad for a YS home player, but he’s being beaten on the inside pitch this year. I’m wondering if the oblique injury made him a bit gunshy. It seems his approach is to go to RF, which isn’t bad, but you’ve gotta be able to clean out pitches in or down the middle. Devers is cleaning out everything. He’s the best hitter in baseball not named Trout

[Kimmi]

You guys said the same thing about Betts last year and it corrected in a single season. Now, Betts is still an eminently useful player and on pace for nearly 6 WAR and a single good streak from a .900 OPS, but expecting guys to hit .360 on balls in play isn’t realistic unless the exit velo is insane (Judge for example). Devers also doesn’t have the benefit of great speed, so he might even dip under and even out over time.

 

That being said, he’d be helped by keeping the 16% K rate and upping himself to 35 homers or so. That 35 for 132 (.16X600=96 K’s) removal will only lower the BA slightly

 

Devers' exit velocity is pretty insane, not to mention an improved contact %. Not saying that Devers won't regress some, but I also wouldn't drop him from my fantasy team any time soon. (Not that I ever draft Sox players on my team.)

 

Also, I'd be more concerned about a few of your players BABIPing around .360 and your Pythagorean W-L record which has the Yankees at 75-50, 8 games below your actual record. The Yankees are not as good as you think they are.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and a higher BAbip that is fueled by hitting the ball hard so much is easier to sustain.

 

He's hitting more line drives this year.

[Kimmi]

Devers is better then anyone in the Yankees lineup.

 

Short and simple, but pretty much says everything that needs to be said about Devers.

 

And the guy is only 22!

[moonslav59]

To me, one of the saddest parts of this season is how I'd have expected 120 wins back in April had someone said Bogey, Vaz & Devers would have a season like this!

[oldtimer]

To me, one of the saddest parts of this season is how I'd have expected 120 wins back in April had someone said Bogey, Vaz & Devers would have a season like this!

 

Both Betts and JDM regressed, which was to be expected as they were having all star/MVP seasons in 2018. Also, both Moreland's injury status and the absence of the good Nunez and Pearce impacted the offense. The real culprit has been the pitching, with our starters getting off badly and staying bad for a good part of the season. Add to that the pen certainly was pushed hard and had a lot of blown saves. So the fact that we had a worse than expected season clearly points to the need for improvements where we have the flexibility to make them and we need a front office that has the right mindset.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, one of the saddest parts of this season is how I'd have expected 120 wins back in April had someone said Bogey, Vaz & Devers would have a season like this!

 

s*** happens. s*** REALLY happens in baseball.

[OH FOY]

Nothing is more important then that little lump of dirt in the middle of the Diamond.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers' exit velocity is pretty insane, not to mention an improved contact %. Not saying that Devers won't regress some, but I also wouldn't drop him from my fantasy team any time soon. (Not that I ever draft Sox players on my team.)

 

Also, I'd be more concerned about a few of your players BABIPing around .360 and your Pythagorean W-L record which has the Yankees at 75-50, 8 games below your actual record. The Yankees are not as good as you think they are.

 

That’s still a 98 win team. I’m good with that

[dgalehouse]

The Ancient Greek jabroni, Pythagaras , was the originator of the expression " Gee , I wish we could save some of these runs for tomorrow." Sorry Pyth , it doesn't work that way in baseball. Every day is a new game .

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, the tried and true way to outperform your Pythagorean is to have a lights out pen.

[bosoxmal]

I think he beeds something like 100 for 168 to hit ,400 this year! M

[fxkatt]

Much of what we can do, by way of surprise, depends on our opponents competitiveness in these last 5 weeks or so. The Yanks, unfortunately will be fighting for best AL record, and TB will be hungrier than ever. Our time to make a move is in August... esp out in the sleepy west.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com writes...

 

The production of Devers at such a young age has put him in rare company. The left-handed hitting masher is the first MLB player with 100-plus runs and RBIs in a season before 23 since future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera in 2005. The only other Red Sox player to accomplish the feat? A guy by the name of Ted Williams.