A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[OH FOY]

JBJ is slumping a bit. Since July 3rd hitting .161. I read.

Last 15 games .185. 10 for 54.

Go back to hitting to Left.

Edited July 25, 2019 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is slumping a bit. Since July 3rd hitting .161. I read.

Last 15 games .185. 10 for 54.

Go back to hitting to Left.

 

Agreed. I'm one of JBJ's biggest fan-boys but I don't for the life of me understand why he stops hitting to LF. That's where his success is.

[dgalehouse]

Agreed. I'm one of JBJ's biggest fan-boys but I don't for the life of me understand why he stops hitting to LF. That's where his success is.

 

JBJ has been a much better hitter at home than on the road . On the road , he has been awful. Left field in Fenway is a big part of it .

[moonslav59]

JBJ has been a much better hitter at home than on the road . On the road , he has been awful. Left field in Fenway is a big part of it .

 

Maybe seeing the wall in LF makes him want to go that way.

[dgalehouse]

Maybe seeing the wall in LF makes him want to go that way.

 

That could be part of it . Of course , the pitchers have to cooperate and pitch him middle away . Tough to go the other way with an inside pitch .

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait, JBJ went ice cold? Color me shocked

[a700hitter]

Our pen is awful in save percentage. In just about every other category, our pen is good to average. Judging a pen on saves alone is as bad as judging a starting pitcher on wins alone.

These are marginal major league arms, except for 3. What stat is there for that?

[jung]

These are marginal major league arms, except for 3. What stat is there for that?

 

The new formula will be Porcello for 2 and Nate for 7. The only problem with that is that a goodly part of Rick's damage comes ahead of the 3rd inning....whoops.

 

But that does leave the rest of the pen available to bail out our new hope, Cashner.

Edited July 25, 2019 by jung

[notin]

Tampa RHP Blake Snell is undergoing arthroscopic surgery and Texas OF Joey Gallo is going to undergo hamate bone surgery.

 

Both are expected to miss 4-6 weeks.

 

I think Texas is officially in “Sell Mode” now.

 

Tampa can become much more aggressive buyers and has the prospects to do so, but I’m not as sure of their fate since they typically like to avoid bigger contracts and giving away any prospects of value. They may just try to win with their kids and a short term marginal pickup. I’d be surprised if they went into sell mode at this point, even as their injuries pile up...

[dgalehouse]

Our pen is awful in save percentage. In just about every other category, our pen is good to average. Judging a pen on saves alone is as bad as judging a starting pitcher on wins alone.

 

Okay , but wins for the starters and saves for the bullpen are good things . If you are getting a lot of them , the team is probably doing well . If you are not getting a lot of them , it's not a good sign .

[cp176]

Okay , but wins for the starters and saves for the bullpen are good things . If you are getting a lot of them , the team is probably doing well . If you are not getting a lot of them , it's not a good sign .

 

This my friend is an excellent point. Don't stay up late though waiting for the critics to tell you that the value of wins and saves is meaningless. Personally wins mean a great deal more to me than saves but to shrug them off as meaningless statistics doesn't seem to make too much sense.

[moonslav59]

This my friend is an excellent point. Don't stay up late though waiting for the critics to tell you that the value of wins and saves is meaningless. Personally wins mean a great deal more to me than saves but to shrug them off as meaningless statistics doesn't seem to make too much sense.

 

Wins, losses, saves and blown save are very important, but how they are assigned is flawed and often times comical.

 

We hear a lot about how flawed WAR, UZR/150 and other metrics are, so it seems fair to point out the flaws in some traditional stats, especially those that involve rules developed years ago that have serious flaws.

[notin]

This my friend is an excellent point. Don't stay up late though waiting for the critics to tell you that the value of wins and saves is meaningless. Personally wins mean a great deal more to me than saves but to shrug them off as meaningless statistics doesn't seem to make too much sense.

 

Wins are meaningful as a team stat, but not a pitcher stat.

 

More often than not, the wins stat for pitchers is an indication of the talent of a pitcher’s teammates, not of the pitcher...

[jacksonianmarch]

Wins for pitchers isn’t entirely meaningless but it certainly isn’t the hallowed ground it once was.

[jung]

Wins for pitchers isn’t entirely meaningless but it certainly isn’t the hallowed ground it once was.

 

When you struggle to go 5 innings with some barely crawling to 6, there is hardly anything that I would call "hallowed ground" for pitchers any longer. We have been watching the game come apart at the seems laughing the whole way as if there was something to laugh about.

[moonslav59]

Team record in a starter's starts is better than just the W-L record of the SP'er, but the stat is so flawed in it's not really a stat I think is very useful.

[notin]

When you struggle to go 5 innings with some barely crawling to 6, there is hardly anything that I would call "hallowed ground" for pitchers any longer. We have been watching the game come apart at the seems laughing the whole way as if there was something to laugh about.

 

The game is changing. It always has before. It’s OK.

 

In the words of the immortal philosopher Bob Marley “Every little thing is gonna be all right.”

[moonslav59]

The game is changing. It always has before. It’s OK.

 

In the words of the immortal philosopher Bob Marley “Every little thing is gonna be all right.”

 

...only if it starts changing towards the good.

[notin]

Team record in a starter's starts is better than just the W-L record of the SP'er, but the stat is so flawed in it's not really a stat I think is very useful.

 

When Matt Young can take the loss in a no-hitter - and not be the only pitcher ever to do so - it might be an indication that the stat isn’t solely indicative of the pitcher himself.

 

When Harvey Haddix can put forth the single most dominant pitching performance in a century and a half of MLB games and still take the loss, it might be an indication that the stat isn’t solely indicative of the pitcher himself.

 

Wins are a team stat. You don’t win or lose as a pitcher; you win or lose as a team...

Edited July 26, 2019 by notin

[notin]

...only if it starts changing towards the good.

 

“Good” and “bad” are matters of opinion. Which is why Bob Marley and his 3 little birds didn’t sing that lyric...

[Maxbialystock]

When Matt Young can take the loss in a no-hitter - and not be the only pitcher ever to do so - it might be an indication that the stat isn’t solely indicative of the pitcher himself.

 

When Harvey Haddix can put forth the single most dominant pitching performance in a century and a half of MLB games and still take the loss, it might be an indication that the stat isn’t solely indicative of the pitcher himself.

 

Wins are a team stat. You don’t win or lose as a pitcher; you win or lose as a team...

 

Yes, I do look at a pitchers won-loss record, but yes, you are right.

[moonslav59]

When Matt Young can take the loss in a no-hitter - and not be the only pitcher ever to do so - it might be an indication that the stat isn’t solely indicative of the pitcher himself.

 

When Harvey Haddix can put forth the single most dominant pitching performance in a century and a half of MLB games and still take the loss, it might be an indication that the stat isn’t solely indicative of the pitcher himself.

 

Wins are a team stat. You don’t win or lose as a pitcher; you win or lose as a team...

 

Yes. A pitcher can also go 4.2 IP of shut out ball and the next guy lets up 5 runs and gets the win.

 

It seems like these facts are easier to overlook than some flaws in the WAR metric.

[OH FOY]

Need to look game by game on this. Today you don't have Pitchers that control a whole game by going 9 innings. That's when the Won and Loss record really mattered.

[moonslav59]

Need to look game by game on this. Today you don't have Pitchers that control a whole game by going 9 innings. That's when the Won and Loss record really mattered.

 

It mattered more but still had flaws.

 

Run support is a big part of W-L's.

[dgalehouse]

You should always look at a pitcher's won - lost record in conjunction with his ERA . If they are both good , you probably have a good pitcher . If one or the other is out of line , you can look for a reason why .

[dgalehouse]

Last night was the Boston Massacre revisited. Poor Tanaka walked off the mound looking beaten , embarrassed , humiliated and possibly washed up .

[OH FOY]

You should always look at a pitcher's won - lost record in conjunction with his ERA . If they are both good , you probably have a good pitcher . If one or the other is out of line , you can look for a reason why .

 

Like it, keep it simple. I always look at Innings Pitched and hits allowed next. The very good ones give up very little hits. Then walks and then K's. And last HRS allowed, to innings pitched.

Edited July 26, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

You should always look at a pitcher's won - lost record in conjunction with his ERA . If they are both good , you probably have a good pitcher . If one or the other is out of line , you can look for a reason why .

 

Or just look at ERA alone, which will give you the same conclusion 100% of the time...

[kenmeister]

Last night was the Boston Massacre revisited. Poor Tanaka walked off the mound looking beaten , embarrassed , humiliated and possibly washed up .

 

It was the most satisfying game of the year.

[notin]

Last night was the Boston Massacre revisited. Poor Tanaka walked off the mound looking beaten , embarrassed , humiliated and possibly washed up .

 

In his last two outings against Boston, Tanaka has given up 18 ER in 4 IP for an impressive 40.50 ERA...