A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

Going forward, I am not worried about our rotation either. I have said many times that our pen needs help.

 

Do you disagree that having our starters pitch better and deeper into games would help our bullpen?

i agree, but modern day managerial philosophy removes starters at the end of 6 innings despite the fact that the starter is destroying opposing hitters. So while I agree that it would be helpful, I don’t think the manager will let them go deep into games. The 4th and 5th spots are problems. Porcello needs to get straightened out, and Cashner is better than the black hole. I don’t know if Eovaldi is enough to cure a Bullpen that has very little talent. Everyone that the Yankees trot out of their pen could close for us. The difference in talent level between the 2 pens is enormous.

[Maxbialystock]

I will agree with the view that the bullpen would be helped if DD had paid to keep Kelly and Kimbrel, but do not agree he should have done so, especially Kimbrel. I also think the tough schedule and some pretty weak starts by the rotation created some problems for the bullpen who have had to make up the difference.

[a700hitter]

I will agree with the view that the bullpen would be helped if DD had paid to keep Kelly and Kimbrel, but do not agree he should have done so, especially Kimbrel. I also think the tough schedule and some pretty weak starts by the rotation created some problems for the bullpen who have had to make up the difference.

There were many other options. DD missed many boats.

[dgalehouse]

i agree, but modern day managerial philosophy removes starters at the end of 6 innings despite the fact that the starter is destroying opposing hitters. So while I agree that it would be helpful, I don’t think the manager will let them go deep into games. The 4th and 5th spots are problems. Porcello needs to get straightened out, and Cashner is better than the black hole. I don’t know if Eovaldi is enough to cure a Bullpen that has very little talent. Everyone that the Yankees trot out of their pen could close for us. The difference in talent level between the 2 pens is enormous.

The Yankee's starters have basically struggled every bit as much as ours have . They don't go deep in games either . Their bullpen has still performed well . No excuses needed.

[notin]

When we get 17 runs one day and none the next, it can skew the stats. I'll grant it that there is a lot to dislike about our pitching, but we have also looked bad att the plate against so so pitching all together too often. As Cora says, they have t play better in all facets of the game.

 

The Guardians (and really, every team) have had blowout games followed by offensive weakspots, too.

 

Back in May they scored 14 runs against Baltimore in one game and 1 the next. (And then later in the year, lost back-to-back games to Baltimore by identical scores of 13-0)...

[S5Dewey]

Bad news for you: oWAR also uses the 'mythical' replacement player, and it uses a similar type of assessment for base running that is used in dWAR.

 

None of this stuff is mythical and none of this stuff is not based in reality.

 

Obviously, you don't have to like it, but despite any flaws that WAR may have, it's pretty darn good.

 

Then who is this "replacement player"? Does he have a name, because everyone he's being compared to does have a name. In reality the "replacement player" is a figment of the imagination created by using a formula that we all agree has flaws. Then those same flaws are used to establish the WAR of real players.

 

Is it "pretty good"? Sure. It's pretty good at bunching players by WAR. It usually is reasonably accurate in establishing who's better than who when there are major differences but again, when I see a formula that tells me that JBJ is only .2 better than a AAAA player on defense I'm going to question it.

[harmony]

Then who is this "replacement player"? Does he have a name, because everyone he's being compared to does have a name. In reality the "replacement player" is a figment of the imagination created by using a formula that we all agree has flaws. Then those same flaws are used to establish the WAR of real players.

 

Is it "pretty good"? Sure. It's pretty good at bunching players by WAR. It usually is reasonably accurate in establishing who's better than who when there are major differences but again, when I see a formula that tells me that JBJ is only .2 better than a AAAA player on defense I'm going to question it.

In statistics a larger sample is better than a smaller sample.

 

Far more players shuffle between the majors and minors than who have established careers as average MLB players. WAR relies on the vast numbers of those replacement players.

[S5Dewey]

In statistics a larger sample is better than a smaller sample.

 

Far more players shuffle between the majors and minors than who have established careers as average MLB players. WAR relies on the vast numbers of those replacement players.

 

Really? A larger sample is better than a smaller sample? I didn't realize that. Probably because we Sox fans aren't as "cerebral" as you Mariners fans.

 

The rest of that post sounds like conjecture to me....unless you have a link to it.

[harmony]

Really? A larger sample is better than a smaller sample? I didn't realize that. Probably because we Sox fans aren't as "cerebral" as you Mariners fans.

 

The rest of that post sounds like conjecture to me....unless you have a link to it.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/

[Maxbialystock]

There were many other options. DD missed many boats.

 

Ahem. Aren't the Sox paying luxury tax this year and paying the highest average salary?

 

As for your boy Price, this is his 4th year at $30M/$31M, and to date he has yet to finish a season with the highest WAR on the pitching staff. Last year was pretty good, 4.4, 16th best in MLB. But this year his WAR 43d in MLB, as it was in 2016. In 2017 his WAR was 111th. His cumulative salary with the Sox will be $120M by the end of this year vs. a cumulative WAR of 13, which translates to almost $10M per WAR of 1. I'd say DD paid too much, but suspect JH is fine with the cost because it helped get a 4th WS.

[a700hitter]

Ahem. Aren't the Sox paying luxury tax this year and paying the highest average salary?

 

As for your boy Price, this is his 4th year at $30M/$31M, and to date he has yet to finish a season with the highest WAR on the pitching staff. Last year was pretty good, 4.4, 16th best in MLB. But this year his WAR 43d in MLB, as it was in 2016. In 2017 his WAR was 111th. His cumulative salary with the Sox will be $120M by the end of this year vs. a cumulative WAR of 13, which translates to almost $10M per WAR of 1. I'd say DD paid too much, but suspect JH is fine with the cost because it helped get a 4th WS.

Maybe your boy, Cora needs to stop babying Price, or is he going to have to stage a mutiny like Sale did tonight to throw more than 100 pitches?

[OH FOY]

Month and half ago Giants were terrible, now just 2 games out of last WC. One hot streak that's all you need. Probably cost you an arm and leg for Bumgarner now.

[Bellhorn04]

There were many other options. DD missed many boats.

 

I don't disagree, but it should probably be pointed out that a lot of those boats sunk, too.

[Kimmi]

i agree, but modern day managerial philosophy removes starters at the end of 6 innings despite the fact that the starter is destroying opposing hitters. So while I agree that it would be helpful, I don’t think the manager will let them go deep into games. The 4th and 5th spots are problems. Porcello needs to get straightened out, and Cashner is better than the black hole. I don’t know if Eovaldi is enough to cure a Bullpen that has very little talent. Everyone that the Yankees trot out of their pen could close for us. The difference in talent level between the 2 pens is enormous.

 

The Yankees pen is supposed to be their strength. Their team was designed to have a pen that could shorten their games to 5 innings because they have a mediocre rotation.

 

With the Red Sox, the opposite was supposed to be true. The starters were supposed to be able to pitch 6+ innings on most starts so that they could carry the pen, not the other way around.

 

When Cora, or any manager, can manage the pen the way he wants, rather than out of necessity, the pen becomes much more effective.

[Kimmi]

The Yankee's starters have basically struggled every bit as much as ours have . They don't go deep in games either . Their bullpen has still performed well . No excuses needed.

 

Yes, because of what I just posted above. It's the way the teams were built.

[Kimmi]

Then who is this "replacement player"? Does he have a name, because everyone he's being compared to does have a name. In reality the "replacement player" is a figment of the imagination created by using a formula that we all agree has flaws. Then those same flaws are used to establish the WAR of real players.

 

Is it "pretty good"? Sure. It's pretty good at bunching players by WAR. It usually is reasonably accurate in establishing who's better than who when there are major differences but again, when I see a formula that tells me that JBJ is only .2 better than a AAAA player on defense I'm going to question it.

 

It is kind of pointless to argue analytics with you and and a couple of other posters because you just ignore the arguments presented and continue to post what you believe is true.

[Kimmi]

Month and half ago Giants were terrible, now just 2 games out of last WC. One hot streak that's all you need. Probably cost you an arm and leg for Bumgarner now.

 

Pablo Sandoval with another walk off last night. If only we had players like that.

 

Thanks Dave!

 

Seriously though, one hot streak is all we need. That hot streak is coming.

[OH FOY]

Does this scenario count for WAR? And how do you determine it?

Batter walks.

Passed ball, or Wild Pitch, runners goes to 2nd.

Batter up grounds to 2nd base, runner advances to 3rd. 1 Out.

Infield back, ground ball to 2nd base, runner scores, batter Out. (Does he get credit for being smart situational hitter, seeing infield back, and all it takes is a ground Out to score a Run)?

Score 1-0.

No hits, no errors, just a walk.

After 9 innings team wins 1-0.

The word Win is there. WAR is Wins Above Replacement.

Everybody makes outs. In the game of baseball, Outs wins games, Productive Outs, Helps win games.

So confused here.

Does WAR take into account Outs? Totally unproductive in the Box Score, but during game, it helped win a game.

Edited July 24, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

I don't disagree, but it should probably be pointed out that a lot of those boats sunk, too.

 

So DD was right for passing on all available boats because they went on to sink?

 

I hope he’s never stranded on a deserted island.

 

Actually if he was, that might explain a few things...

[notin]

Does this scenario count for WAR? And how do you determine it?

Batter walks.

Passed ball, or Wild Pitch, runners goes to 2nd.

Batter up grounds to 2nd base, runner advances to 3rd. 1 Out.

Infield back, ground ball to 2nd base, runner scores, batter Out.

Score 1-0.

No hits, no errors, just a walk.

After 9 innings team wins 1-0.

The word Win is there. WAR is Wins Above Replacement.

Everybody makes outs.

So confused here.

 

Yes, but it won’t be a significant contribution.

 

In fWAR, the pitcher’s FIP is a factor. In that instance, he issued a walk and did not have a corresponding strikeout to offset it.

 

But WAR is meant to be an encompassing stat and not applied to individual game situations like this. It’s an aggregate compilation of a player’s offensive, defensive, base running, and/or pitching contributions.

[Maxbialystock]

There were many other options. DD missed many boats.

 

Very likely, but acquiring pitchers, starters or relievers, is a tricky business, especially recently and especially with DD: Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, and others have all been problematic. Eovalidi, agreed, worked out great last year, but this year over 1/2 the season on the IL. Sale was pretty great the last two seasons, but not once August rolled around, and this year, after a tough April, decent May and June, we've seen 12 earned runs in 22 innings, ERA 4.84, in July and 4.04, season to date. Price has never been worth $30M/year. Pom and Porc way over-priced and under-performing. Kimbel a great closer until the 2018 postseason, when his apparent mission was to sabotage the bullpen. Cashner to date has gone 11 innings and given up 9 earned runs.

 

So, me, I'm thinking it's OK if DD is a little leery of the pitching marketplace. There may in fact be great bargains or simply great but expense arms to acquire, but, once he acquires them, they seem to slide downhill.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Pablo Sandoval with another walk off last night.

 

That would be a waddle-off.

[Bellhorn04]

So DD was right for passing on all available boats because they went on to sink?

 

DID I SAY THAT?

 

[OH FOY]

Yes, but it won’t be a significant contribution.

 

In fWAR, the pitcher’s FIP is a factor. In that instance, he issued a walk and did not have a corresponding strikeout to offset it.

 

But WAR is meant to be an encompassing stat and not applied to individual game situations like this. It’s an aggregate compilation of a player’s offensive, defensive, base running, and/or pitching contributions.

 

Of Course WAR on Pitching makes sense. Good Pitch game. Not talking about Pitching though, Taking about Run scored on Offense, that showed nothing in the Box Score. Base running? Passed Ball on a hard pitch to block? That the Pitcher wanted to throw.

Significant contribution is this, it might take that 1 win to make the Play-offs, or maybe win a World Series.

That's why its really important to really watch the game of baseball. Because there is so much in one single game, and every game different, makes it fun.

Edited July 24, 2019 by OH FOY!

[dgalehouse]

Give the Rays credit for overachieving as much as they have this year . But I think they are pretty well cooked. Stick the fork in them tonight .

[Bellhorn04]

Give the Rays credit for overachieving as much as they have this year . But I think they are pretty well cooked. Stick the fork in them tonight .

 

Afternoon game, Denny!

[dgalehouse]

Afternoon game, Denny!

 

Thanks . I forgot that. Early start too.

[notin]

Of Course WAR on Pitching makes sense. Good Pitch game. Not talking about Pitching though, Taking about Run scored on Offense, that showed nothing in the Box Score. Base running? Passed Ball on a hard pitch to block? That the Pitcher wanted to throw.

Significant contribution is this, it might take that 1 win to make the Play-offs, or maybe win a World Series.

That's why its really important to really watch the game of baseball. Because there is so much in one single game, and every game different, makes it fun.

 

Ok I’m missing your point.

[dgalehouse]

Very likely, but acquiring pitchers, starters or relievers, is a tricky business, especially recently and especially with DD: Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, and others have all been problematic. Eovalidi, agreed, worked out great last year, but this year over 1/2 the season on the IL. Sale was pretty great the last two seasons, but not once August rolled around, and this year, after a tough April, decent May and June, we've seen 12 earned runs in 22 innings, ERA 4.84, in July and 4.04, season to date. Price has never been worth $30M/year. Pom and Porc way over-priced and under-performing. Kimbel a great closer until the 2018 postseason, when his apparent mission was to sabotage the bullpen. Cashner to date has gone 11 innings and given up 9 earned runs.

 

So, me, I'm thinking it's OK if DD is a little leery of the pitching marketplace. There may in fact be great bargains or simply great but expense arms to acquire, but, once he acquires them, they seem to slide downhill.

 

Max , You are missing one little detail . Since D.D. took over , we have won three straight A.L. East titles and one World Series . Without the pitchers you listed above that does not happen.

[a700hitter]

The Yankees pen is supposed to be their strength. Their team was designed to have a pen that could shorten their games to 5 innings because they have a mediocre rotation.

 

With the Red Sox, the opposite was supposed to be true. The starters were supposed to be able to pitch 6+ innings on most starts so that they could carry the pen, not the other way around.

 

When Cora, or any manager, can manage the pen the way he wants, rather than out of necessity, the pen becomes much more effective.

It’s not that our pen isn’t as strong as the Yankees pen. Our pen is awful and barely MLB competent. You can’t hide a pen like that no matter how good your starters are unless you go back to the days when complete games were common.