A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[S5Dewey]

No, but the people who judge the plays and difficulty of the plays are trained, calibrated, rotated and together watch every play of every game- something none of us come close to doing.

 

I'd rank their "opinions" higher than any of ours.

 

... and they weren't obviously inaccurate as often as they are we'd have more faith in them. The last thing I need is someone telling me that JBJ is worse defensively than a AAAA player, which is what I was being told earlier in the year.

[OH FOY]

Rays got a perfect game going.

[OH FOY]

Its over, Perfect game gone.

[moonslav59]

... and they weren't obviously inaccurate as often as they are we'd have more faith in them. The last thing I need is someone telling me that JBJ is worse defensively than a AAAA player, which is what I was being told earlier in the year.

 

The JBJ scores are puzzling, but I will say, he doesn't look as good as he was a few years ago. IMO, he is not a minus, but there are a hell of a lot of great defensive CF'ers in MLB these days, and these numbers are somewhat relative to the norm.

 

JBJ's numbers look wrong to me, and it seems strange that over the last few years, he starts off in the negative and ends up plus. Maybe he will again this year.

 

I've never said the numbers are perfect or 100% accurate. Park dimensions and the ability and speed of corner OF'er affect a CF'er's ratings, as well, and that doesn't seem fair, but these guys watch every play of every game. They are calibrated, cross-compared and rotated, so one would think that over a large enough sample size, it would be fairly accurate. OF'er sample sizes can be pretty small, and maybe a 2-3 year sample size is the best way to use UZR/150 on them.

[OH FOY]

JBJ is one of the smartest Ballplayers on the Sox. I like smart Ballplayers. In every sport, smart wins a lot of games.

[moonslav59]

JBJ is one of the smartest Ballplayers on the Sox. I like smart Ballplayers. In every sport, smart wins a lot of games.

 

He's a very head-up base runner and gets the most out of his not-so-great speed.

 

He has the best reaction time on defense over recent years. I'm not sure if he takes the best routes on fly balls as he seemingly used to do, but he still looks plus to these eyes.

[Slasher9]

No, but the people who judge the plays and difficulty of the plays are trained, calibrated, rotated and together watch every play of every game- something none of us come close to doing.

 

I'd rank their "opinions" higher than any of ours.

 

I wouldn’t. The guy watching all those plays is probably bat s*** crazy. I don’t trust him for s***

[harmony]

... and they weren't obviously inaccurate as often as they are we'd have more faith in them. The last thing I need is someone telling me that JBJ is worse defensively than a AAAA player, which is what I was being told earlier in the year.

Big Data will exploit those who rely on their anecdotal evidence.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t. The guy watching all those plays is probably bat s*** crazy. I don’t trust him for s***

 

It's not one guy. It's trained people who are rotated and calibrated.

 

The same guys who rate JBJ rate the other CF'ers.

 

It's not a perfect system, but I see far too few games by other teams to know if their CF'er is better than ours or not.

[dgalehouse]

It's not one guy. It's trained people who are rotated and calibrated.

 

The same guys who rate JBJ rate the other CF'ers.

 

It's not a perfect system, but I see far too few games by other teams to know if their CF'er is better than ours or not.

Who are these people ? Who trains them ? Is this their full time job ? How much do they make ? Sounds kind of odd to me . I know that there are a lot of excellent center fielders and shortstops . Of course there are . That's why they are center fielders and shortstops . I think ours are pretty darn good . I don't really need some trained , calibrated , rotated , bleary eyed jabroni staying up all night watching every play , evaluating them and assigning them a numerical rating .

[Bellhorn04]

Big Data will exploit those who rely on their anecdotal evidence.

 

Big Data has nothing to do with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s defensive ratings.

[Bellhorn04]

Who are these people ? Who trains them ? Is this their full time job ? How much do they make ? Sounds kind of odd to me . I know that there are a lot of excellent center fielders and shortstops . Of course there are . That's why they are center fielders and shortstops . I think ours are pretty darn good . I don't really need some trained , calibrated , rotated , bleary eyed jabroni staying up all night watching every play , evaluating them and assigning them a numerical rating .

 

C'mon Denny, we have always had 'official scorers' who decide whether it's a hit or an error. This is not a huge difference.

[harmony]

Big Data has nothing to do with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s defensive ratings.

Anecdotal citation to Jackie Bradley Jr. does not undermine the value of Big Data.

 

Last year Jackie Bradley Jr. was left off the ballots of four of the 10 Fielding Bible panelists voting on the top defensive center fielder:

 

http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

Bradley's highest rankings came from Bill James and Peter Gammons, who each have Red Sox connections.

Edited July 14, 2019 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

C'mon Denny, we have always had 'official scorers' who decide whether it's a hit or an error. This is not a huge difference.

 

Big difference . Most of the hit / error calls are pretty routine . A few could go either way and are judgement calls . The fans are well aware of this . This other thing is kind of bizarre . And it could have an effect on a player's earning potential . I have no problem with those who swear by WAR . I just don't . I identify more with the average fan who wants to go to the ballpark , have a beer and a hot dog , and have a good time . I have no desire to watch and review every play of every game . To each his own .

[OH FOY]

As an old Fart I bypass 2 stats OPS and WAR, I don't get mad at all those that want to use it. I just see things in these 2 stats that I dont like.

Like my Grand-children, I listen and nod.

[Bellhorn04]

Big difference . Most of the hit / error calls are pretty routine . A few could go either way and are judgement calls . The fans are well aware of this . This other thing is kind of bizarre . And it could have an effect on a player's earning potential . I have no problem with those who swear by WAR . I just don't . I identify more with the average fan who wants to go to the ballpark , have a beer and a hot dog , and have a good time . I have no desire to watch and review every play of every game . To each his own .

 

I have no desire to watch and review every play either. But I'm fine with someone else doing it.

[Bellhorn04]

Anecdotal citation to Jackie Bradley Jr. does not undermine the value of Big Data.

 

Last year Jackie Bradley Jr. was left off the ballots of four of the 10 Fielding Bible panelists voting on the top defensive center fielder:

 

http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

Bradley's highest rankings came from Bill James and Peter Gammons, who each have Red Sox connections.

 

Looks like he's finished around #5 or #6 the last few years. I guess that's fair enough.

[dgalehouse]

I have no desire to watch and review every play either. But I'm fine with someone else doing it.

 

I have no problem with someone else doing it either . (As long as I am not paying them ) But I don't value their opinions more than I value my own .

[S5Dewey]

Looks like he's finished around #5 or #6 the last few years. I guess that's fair enough.

 

But don't you think that's odd for a player who's only marginally better defensively than a AAAA player? Doesn't that mean there are probably 20 or so players who are no better defensively than that AAAA guy?

[S5Dewey]

It's not one guy. It's trained people who are rotated and calibrated.

 

The same guys who rate JBJ rate the other CF'ers.

 

It's not a perfect system, but I see far too few games by other teams to know if their CF'er is better than ours or not.

 

I'm not even comparing JBJ to other CF'ers. I'm doing the same thing dWAR does, comparing his defense to AAAA players. IMOH saying that Bradley is worse than a AAAA player at any point in the season is, in a word, BOGUS.

 

I'm having trouble believing that true baseball fans anywhere would find that credible. And yet, in order to defend dWAR one has to believe that's true.

[moonslav59]

Who are these people ? Who trains them ? Is this their full time job ? How much do they make ? Sounds kind of odd to me . I know that there are a lot of excellent center fielders and shortstops . Of course there are . That's why they are center fielders and shortstops . I think ours are pretty darn good . I don't really need some trained , calibrated , rotated , bleary eyed jabroni staying up all night watching every play , evaluating them and assigning them a numerical rating .

 

How do you know JBJ is better than most CF'ers on D. then?

[moonslav59]

I'm not even comparing JBJ to other CF'ers. I'm doing the same thing dWAR does, comparing his defense to AAAA players. IMOH saying that Bradley is worse than a AAAA player at any point in the season is, in a word, BOGUS.

 

I'm having trouble believing that true baseball fans anywhere would find that credible. And yet, in order to defend dWAR one has to believe that's true.

 

No. Believers in dWAR do not think it is perfect and don't "believe" every number is accurate.

 

It is one tool among many.

 

I don't even watch NL baseball, unless the Sox play them. I barely watch most AL teams play more than 6 games a year. What's that 10 plays hit to CF in those 6 games?

 

AAAA players can still be great defenders but just not top 20 or 25, if the position is as loaded as CF is this year on defense.

[S5Dewey]

No. Believers in dWAR do not think it is perfect and don't "believe" every number is accurate.

If one doesn't believe all of them they're then left in the position of not knowing which ones to believe and which not to believe. So they believe the ones they choose to.

[moonslav59]

If one doesn't believe all of them they're then left in the position of not knowing which ones to believe and which not to believe. So they believe the ones they choose to.

 

It's one guideline to use as you wish. To me, it helps me know more about players on other teams that I don't see play very much, if at all.

 

I see JBJ play great D, but I have no way of knowing if he is the best, top 10 or top 20. I have a pretty good idea how he stacks up against other AL East CF'ers, but even after seeing 18 games of them, I'm not that sure about my own opinion when it comes to comps... certainly no better than I do with dWAR numbers, UZR/150 and DRS.

 

That's all I'm saying.

[S5Dewey]

It's one guideline to use as you wish. To me, it helps me know more about players on other teams that I don't see play very much, if at all.

 

I see JBJ play great D, but I have no way of knowing if he is the best, top 10 or top 20. I have a pretty good idea how he stacks up against other AL East CF'ers, but even after seeing 18 games of them, I'm not that sure about my own opinion when it comes to comps... certainly no better than I do with dWAR numbers, UZR/150 and DRS.

 

That's all I'm saying.

 

I haven't seen all those guys play either. In fact I haven't even seen all the AAAA players, but I'm confident he's better than (nearly) off of them just because he's made it to the bigs. And that's what WAR compares him to, a replacement player.

How is anyone supposed to have confidence in a "formula" that says that JBJ is no better than a replacement player???

 

dWAR is the triumph of statistics over logic.

[harmony]

I'm not even comparing JBJ to other CF'ers. I'm doing the same thing dWAR does, comparing his defense to AAAA players. IMOH saying that Bradley is worse than a AAAA player at any point in the season is, in a word, BOGUS.

 

I'm having trouble believing that true baseball fans anywhere would find that credible. And yet, in order to defend dWAR one has to believe that's true.

A fan's assessment of a player's defensive abilities can be based on several sources, including televised coverage of that player, accompanied by biased commentary from that team's announcers.

 

I don't watch much television but my favorite team's radio announcers offer laudatory off-cuff defensive commentary on a particular play although that player's overall defensive metrics are not flattering.

[moonslav59]

I haven't seen all those guys play either. In fact I haven't even seen all the AAAA players, but I'm confident he's better than (nearly) off of them just because he's made it to the bigs. And that's what WAR compares him to, a replacement player.

How is anyone supposed to have confidence in a "formula" that says that JBJ is no better than a replacement player???

 

dWAR is the triumph of statistics over logic.

 

1. There might be a lot of AAAA players that are excellent defenders and better than JBJ on defense. They aren't in MLB because they can't hit.

 

2. JBJ had such a horrible start on offense, I wouldn't argue with a 0 WAR. A zero dWAR for this year seems puzzling, but not there are 15 CF'ers having better defensive years than JBJ. A 0 dWAR just means he has not been better so far this year. Maybe he hasn't. I haven't seen the other 29 CF'er to know if he is easily replaceable on D. Have you?

 

[oldtimer]

The Sox played well enough to win yet came up short when they got into their weakest BP late. They hit two homeruns to tie and had numerous chances where a hit would win the game. The last of which, a man n 2nd with nobody out was mismanaqed into nothing. A bunt was called for and not taken followed by bad baserunning. Bad baseball resullts in more bad baseball. I went to bed after that and what resulted was predictable. Our worst BP broke down.

[notin]

The Sox played well enough to win yet came up short when they got into their weakest BP late. They hit two homeruns to tie and had numerous chances where a hit would win the game. The last of which, a man n 2nd with nobody out was mismanaqed into nothing. A bunt was called for and not taken followed by bad baserunning. Bad baseball resullts in more bad baseball. I went to bed after that and what resulted was predictable. Our worst BP broke down.

 

While Hector Velasquez is awful, you can’t expext any bullpen to be effective 6 or 7 men deep.

 

The bullpen was surprisingly effective last night. The offense and their ability to squander scoring chances was not.

 

And the Sox have too many games where it’s hard to think of anything good the reigning MVP did...

[Bellhorn04]

I haven't seen all those guys play either. In fact I haven't even seen all the AAAA players, but I'm confident he's better than (nearly) off of them just because he's made it to the bigs. And that's what WAR compares him to, a replacement player.

How is anyone supposed to have confidence in a "formula" that says that JBJ is no better than a replacement player???

 

dWAR is the triumph of statistics over logic.

 

FWIW, although I didn't see the plays myself, I read some comments in more than one of the game threads early in the season about JBJ's defense not being up to par.