When does DD push the panic button..??

[Kimmi]

The situation with the 2019 Red Sox is somewhere between sad and unbelievable. This team that won 108 games last year has become a .500 team with no major changes.

 

I have been taught/conditioned by the stat geeks to believe that a player's emotional state has no bearing on their performance. In short, they're human 'robots' who go onto the field every day and play to their abilities. That's why there's no such thing as 'clutch' or 'choke' - their emotional state doesn't enter into the game. It's all about their physical skills.

 

That's what's so frustrating about the 2019 Red Sox..that they've lost the skills to play baseball at a MLB winning pace. I could offer anecdotal evidence about happier players winning more games but it would only be dismissed as anecdotal evidence which is trumped by statistics. Stats rule.

 

With that in mind we may as well sit back and accept this team as it is because no trade, no shake-up is going to make these player/robots play better than they currently are. They're doing all they can do. We're not going to be able to trade Beni for a player/players/robot who will make enough of a change in LF to turn this team into a contender again, the same with Mookie or anyone else on this team. We have a bunch of player/robots who aren't producing and no GM is going to offer any better players for them.

 

Me? I think there's something going on in that clubhouse that we don't know about but the only thing I can offer to support that is 40 years of playing and coaching experience. In short, anecdotal evidence which is essentially worthless.

 

Stats rule!

 

Quit making stuff up.

 

No one has ever said anything close to this.

 

But stats do rule!

[FredLynn]

The night show on EEI last night talked out buying rentals for minimal prospect outlay then selling Betts in the offseason. He makes a good point. If DD goes to Betts with a realistic contract offer (8yrs $240 mil or so) and Betts turns it down, he should 100% be dealt. No point in having a swan song with him when he can walk for nothing. Think about it, when Theo was GM, Betts would walk for a 1st rounder and a 1st supp pick. When Ben was GM, Betts would walk for a 1st round supp pick. If Betts walks after 2020, the sox get a 4th round supp pick. Not even worth holding onto him in that case.

 

I agree with you, but I don't think we will get much in return from any club receiving one year of Mookie Betts. He will go wherever the money is, and I don't blame him. Not really optimistic that he will remain on this team.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with you, but I don't think we will get much in return from any club receiving one year of Mookie Betts. He will go wherever the money is, and I don't blame him. Not really optimistic that he will remain on this team.

 

1.5 years to be exact, which means potentially 2 postseasons.

[Kimmi]

Well, the primary “not a repeatable skill” stat is RBIs. And the main reason is, outside of HRs, it’s 100% dependeant on other players being on base. If. Hitter comes up with 400 runners on base one year and 300 the next, his RBI totals will obviously drop regardless of performance.

 

The things you say are not repeatable skills are things I would argue are, depending on the level of precision. But the repeatability of those skills is what gets many to the majors. I can get (very) lucky and hit a Nathan Eovaldi fastball once. But once that happens, it ain’t repeating...

 

'Repeatable skill' is about year to year correlation. Some skills have a high year to year correlation, meaning they are repeatable.

 

Others, like clutch, have none, meaning they are random.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox Notes‏ @SoxNotes 2

 

In 2018, the Red Sox opened July with an 11-1 loss at Yankee Stadium and fell to 2nd place in the AL East. They won their next 10 games and went 32-7 from July 2-August 18.

 

^^That's what I'm talking about.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Red Sox Notes‏ @SoxNotes 2

 

In 2018, the Red Sox opened July with an 11-1 loss at Yankee Stadium and fell to 2nd place in the AL East. They won their next 10 games and went 32-7 from July 2-August 18.

 

^^That's what I'm talking about.

 

I think your fantastic for posting this .I will not add anything other than baseball is so unpredictable .Positive thread is needed today .

[Swiharts Ghost]

I hope Dave can make a move soon really adding a player to help with moral would help Loosen guys up . Edited July 4, 2019 by Swiharts Ghost

[jung]

The simple fact is that winning is what creates a good mental attitude and the expectation of winning the next game. And losing, especially losing more than the year before, has the opposite effect.

 

That said, you only have to watch the games to see that the wins and losses are earned and rarely the result of some indefinable malaise.

 

Exhibit A in this argument is Chris Sale, who I think is the most professional pitcher in Red Sox uniform I have seen recently. Yet he is having a horrible season, and I refuse to believe it's because he pitched 6 fewer innings in ST this year than last year (2018). He has changed. His control isn't as good, his fastball has lost some steam, and his changeup ain't working although his slider is. It may also be that he is more comfortable with Leon behind the plate than Vazquez.

 

Exhibit B is Mookie Betts. He's getting $20M and is line for a huge free agent contract, and his numbers are way down from last year, especially with RISP. I would argue that opposing pitchers and especially coaches have figured some things out and know a lot more this year about how to get him out, especially with RISP. Last night was just one more example.

 

Exhibit C includes Bogie, Devers, Vazquez, JBJ, and maybe even Chavis, all of whom are hitting better or much better than last year. Plus Devers has even gotten better defensively. No way, no how are those five not looking forward to excelling in the next game and doing what it takes to win.

 

Exhibit D is the rotation writ large. As I have already detailed, ST did not kill them because ERod pitched the normal 15 innings this year and is pitching worse than last year and Price is pitching better than last year but pitched 6 fewer innings in ST than last year. Only Sale is a lot worse than last year and pitched 6 fewer innings in ST, but I would argue that he is worse because his fast ball has lost some zip, his control is not as good, and his changeup ain't working but was last year. My point is that our $88M/year rotation (Sale will get more than $15M next year) just maybe wasn't a good investment.

 

Exhibit E is that the Red Sox in the John Henry era have already demonstrated that they rarely follow a great season (win the WS) with a really good one. There is always a let down. And guess what? Last year was only the greatest season in Sox history with 108 wins in the regular season and taking 11 of 14 games in the postseason against the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers.

 

This mistake with Sale was extending him. Who on Gods green earth thinks we want a Pitcher who has shown signs of wearing down over the course of the season all the way out to 2024 at $29M per? I am not questioning whether he could or did pass a physical before signing. I am confident he did. What does that have to do with anything? What the f*** was that. That is an albatross around our necks. That is what that is.

 

Mookie is simply too diminutive a player to take the risk inherent to making him a $30M per player playing Manfred-ball. He is literally one wrist injury from being turned into the most average player we are ever going to see and he is only 5-9, 180. Let somebody else do it and be happy with the result. We got a championship out of his run here. I would ONLY keep him around and let him go as a FA if I had a genuine, feeling we had the pieces around him to make a very serious run to another ring...not a run to the division or the WC but a serous run at ALCS at least. Frankly, I think there is too much fixing that needs doing here for that sort of confidence. Yes, he does have to adapt to pitchers not giving him his favorite pitch as often. He probably will which is no guarantee that he will handle what they ARE throwing him. That said the general quality of pitching in MLB is so piss poor that he can reliably expect to get pitches to hit. There are far too many pitchers pitching in MLB that are wild in the strike zone. In fact I think noise about expansion is laughable. Where are players going to come from for two more MLB teams? Most specifically where are the pitchers going to come from or will Manfred just proclaim again that "these are the greatest hitters in history" [hitting rocket ship baseballs thrown by pitchers that belong in A ball]?

 

Why are Bogie, Devers and Vaz doing as well as they are doing? Because they are hitting virtually everything thrown up to the plate at them...low and away, low and in, up and out over, breaking balls, FB's WHATEVER.....they are hitting it. I am reluctant to put JBJ in that category because we never know when JBJ is going to wake up one morning and turn into ......THE OTHER JBJ. The two SUPERSTARS are doing none of that. Chavis is just benefiting from so many pitchers throwing crap breaking balls right down main st which it appears he just can't miss and the occasional FB below his belt.

 

The rotation sucks balls. But I am not willing to simply ignore the fact that they ALL REALLY sucked balls for 4 turns through at the start of the regular season. What if for example the lack of ST stints was simply the visible manifestation of a light work load throughout ST? Erod had the best starts through that period followed by Price. There is simply no ignoring how bad they were through 4 turns right at the start. None of them could throw a Change to save their lives. They were all up and out over with Change ups which is death for that pitch, every one of them exhibited that tendency.

 

I am in agreement with the bolded text in the quote. Though this tendency to fall in love with players by management, not the fans is as much responsible as anything. Never mind whether we fall in love with them or not. We don't have a seat at the Baseball Ops table. Why for example did DD feel the need to validate his choices to supplement the 2018 championship run by signing Pearce at all and signing Eovaldi for too much money? DD had done his job and those two players had done theirs. What the f*** did any of that have to do with 2019?

Edited July 4, 2019 by jung

[S5Dewey]

Quit making stuff up.

 

No one has ever said anything close to this.

 

But stats do rule!

 

I'm not making stuff up. While what I said may not be verbatim quotes it accurately reflects what's being said here.

 

As I said above, some folks say, "I believe in the statistics BUT..." so I'd have to ask at what point do those who "believe in the statistics BUT..." believe a player's emotions begin to control his performance? Because their saying "BUT" means they believe it does at some point.

 

Where is that point and what does it control?

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie is simply too diminutive a player to take the risk inherent to making him a $30M per player playing Manfred-ball. He is literally one wrist injury from being turned into the most average player we are ever going to see and he is only 5-9, 180.

 

What exactly makes Mookie more susceptible to a devastating wrist injury than other players?

[Swiharts Ghost]

Folks come on now let's snap out of this endless spiral .lets agree that a move needs to be made and leave it there .The first half has been terrible for everyone involved let's think that with a couple minor adds and minuses to the roster we can improve abit if not considerable .Support one another but let's not all give up just yet .I have been Terrrrible this year giving up and crowning the team from night to night .

[jung]

What exactly makes Mookie more susceptible to a devastating wrist injury than other players?

 

He is relatively small and Manfred's rules support larger, less agile players because that is what he wants. Mookie is a midget out there. Plus he is more dependent on his wrists to generate power than what is now your run of the mill LARGER ballplayer. He is more fragile and more susceptible to a wrist injury that in his case will be more telling than the norm which is usually bad enough for a ballplayer. If he was Machado sized or Harper sized I would feel much more comfortable with Mookie playing the game Manfred seems destined to want these guys to play.

[Slasher9]

 

And BTW, very few things in baseball are "repeatable skills". Throwing a baseball is a repeatable skill. Throwing it accurately isn't. Swinging a bat is a repeatable skill. Hitting a baseball with that bat isn't. It's the nature of the game and why I don't buy into the "not a repeatable skill" argument.

 

This is pretty darn good stuff right here...

[jung]

This is pretty darn good stuff right here...

 

The only repeatable skill in baseball is actually a talent, not a skill. Hand/eye coordination is all baseball players really have that distinguishes them from other humans and other athletic humans. The hand/eye coordination of players that make it all the way to MLB is far beyond what the rest of us players that fell by the wayside have. There is actually no amount of hard work or determination that can make up for it. For players that do not get that far, to have any sort of career at all, their hand/eye is far better than the average bear's.

 

MLB players might as well be aliens from another planet when compared to the rest of us with regard to hand/eye coordination.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with you, but I don't think we will get much in return from any club receiving one year of Mookie Betts. He will go wherever the money is, and I don't blame him. Not really optimistic that he will remain on this team.

 

A single year of a 27 yr old MVP caliber player is worth a lot. Consider the team they deal him to stays under the first cap and Betts can net that squad a 1st round supp pick, something that won’t happen for Boston and he’d be worth a lot more.

[dgalehouse]

Every time you think the Sox are ready to rumble they seem to lay an egg . Can't really pinpoint one reason . If it's not one thing , it's another. At this point, there is not a whole lot that can be done. Hope Eovaldi comes back and helps stabilize the bullpen . That might help . Beyond that , I don't know . I certainly don't think trading Mookie is a serious consideration. At least , I hope it isn't.

[jacksonianmarch]

Every time you think the Sox are ready to rumble they seem to lay an egg . Can't really pinpoint one reason . If it's not one thing , it's another. At this point, there is not a whole lot that can be done. Hope Eovaldi comes back and helps stabilize the bullpen . That might help . Beyond that , I don't know . I certainly don't think trading Mookie is a serious consideration. At least , I hope it isn't.

 

It is the pitching. 77 runs scored in the last 11 games and the sox are 5-6. They have been averaging 7 runs a game and are a game under .500. When the pitchers give the offense a chance to win and the pen holds leads late, you will go on a roll

[dgalehouse]

It is the pitching. 77 runs scored in the last 11 games and the sox are 5-6. They have been averaging 7 runs a game and are a game under .500. When the pitchers give the offense a chance to win and the pen holds leads late, you will go on a roll

 

No question. Pitching , both starters and relievers , has left much to be desired.

[moonslav59]

It is the pitching. 77 runs scored in the last 11 games and the sox are 5-6. They have been averaging 7 runs a game and are a game under .500. When the pitchers give the offense a chance to win and the pen holds leads late, you will go on a roll

 

While the pen has deservedly gotten a lot of criticism, these numbers are frightening, to me:

 

 

Sale: 7.02 ERA last 3 starts/ 3.86 last 9 starts (decent but still sub Sale of yesteryears)

 

Porcello: 15.63 last 2 starts/ 6.03 last 7/ 5.05 last 10

 

ERod: 5.30 last 3/ 5.00 last 9

 

Price: 5.40 last 4/ 3.17 last 10 is the only good one of the 4.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The starters have sucked and on the off chance the starters did their job, the pen has blown it. It's an incredibly strange course of events

[moonslav59]

The starters have sucked and on the off chance the starters did their job, the pen has blown it. It's an incredibly strange course of events

 

Putting all the parts together at the same time, or at least "just enough" of each, is the hardest part of this great game called baseball.

[Elktonnick]

It is pitching but I also believe the Red Sox as an organization must question their entire approach and philosophy when it comes to the development of pitchers, what they throw and the sequence of pitches.

 

I say that because despite their farm system producing numerous standout position players over the last decade it hasn't produced a ML ready pitcher of note since John Lester. Secondly, I have repeatedly heard noted and accomplished pitchers like John Smoltz Jim Palmer et al criticize Red Sox pitchers pitch sequencing. I simply believe that the organization doesn't put enough emphasis on pitching development and technique at the minor league level. Other than Lester, Buccholtz and Papelbon there hasn't been a Red Sox developed pitcher who has made a significant impact on this team's success.

[moonslav59]

It is pitching but I also believe the Red Sox as an organization must question their entire approach and philosophy when it comes to the development of pitchers, what they throw and the sequence of pitches.

 

I say that because despite their farm system producing numerous standout position players over the last decade it hasn't produced a ML ready pitcher of note since John Lester. Secondly, I have repeatedly heard noted and accomplished pitchers like John Smoltz Jim Palmer et al criticize Red Sox pitchers pitch sequencing. I simply believe that the organization doesn't put enough emphasis on pitching development and technique at the minor league level. Other than Lester, Buccholtz and Papelbon there hasn't been a Red Sox developed pitcher who has made a significant impact on this team's success.

 

Well, Sale had his best stretch of his career with the Sox. Porcello had his best season, by far, with the Sox.

 

Price has had to reinvent himself as a pitcher not a thrower, snd he did it well...with the Sox.

 

I totally agree with the farm aspect of our pitcher development. I've never understood why we haven't gone out and gotten the best in the game to run that area of our farm system.

[jung]

It is pitching but I also believe the Red Sox as an organization must question their entire approach and philosophy when it comes to the development of pitchers, what they throw and the sequence of pitches.

 

I say that because despite their farm system producing numerous standout position players over the last decade it hasn't produced a ML ready pitcher of note since John Lester. Secondly, I have repeatedly heard noted and accomplished pitchers like John Smoltz Jim Palmer et al criticize Red Sox pitchers pitch sequencing. I simply believe that the organization doesn't put enough emphasis on pitching development and technique at the minor league level. Other than Lester, Buccholtz and Papelbon there hasn't been a Red Sox developed pitcher who has made a significant impact on this team's success.

 

That has always been the case around here. Surprising since you cannot possibly pay Coaches what you pay players. Why not have assets that can do a better job of developing pitchers? So it would have seemed a no brainer long ago....but the Sox have apparently been pretty resistant to it.

 

I suppose it might have its genesis in the years when Fenway was a real deal HR hitters park. So maybe management decided that they would spend on hitters instead of pitchers and spending on hitters also then drove the management mentality regarding the development and management of pitchers. Worth noting that this team was not always so flush with cash, far from it at times. That might have had an impact as well. Seems that those days ended at the latest with the Fenway seat additions and other modifications to the park itself. Its a doubles park now....the best doubles park in baseball.

Edited July 4, 2019 by jung

[Carpin]

It is pitching but I also believe the Red Sox as an organization must question their entire approach and philosophy when it comes to the development of pitchers, what they throw and the sequence of pitches.

 

I say that because despite their farm system producing numerous standout position players over the last decade it hasn't produced a ML ready pitcher of note since John Lester. Secondly, I have repeatedly heard noted and accomplished pitchers like John Smoltz Jim Palmer et al criticize Red Sox pitchers pitch sequencing. I simply believe that the organization doesn't put enough emphasis on pitching development and technique at the minor league level. Other than Lester, Buccholtz and Papelbon there hasn't been a Red Sox developed pitcher who has made a significant impact on this team's success.

 

There are only a few teams in the league which can develop pitchers consistently, most of teams are not that good, i get your point that the Boston is in the lower end of the pitching development teams. If you go around the league, the only teams who really develop pitchers consistently are the Rays, Dodgers, Astros (lately), Guardians and the Mets (even if they ruin them when they reach the majors). Those are the teams from the top of my mind, there might be others but those are the most important.

[Bellhorn04]

It is pitching but I also believe the Red Sox as an organization must question their entire approach and philosophy when it comes to the development of pitchers, what they throw and the sequence of pitches.

 

I say that because despite their farm system producing numerous standout position players over the last decade it hasn't produced a ML ready pitcher of note since John Lester. Secondly, I have repeatedly heard noted and accomplished pitchers like John Smoltz Jim Palmer et al criticize Red Sox pitchers pitch sequencing. I simply believe that the organization doesn't put enough emphasis on pitching development and technique at the minor league level. Other than Lester, Buccholtz and Papelbon there hasn't been a Red Sox developed pitcher who has made a significant impact on this team's success.

 

It's been a long-term problem of the team, and a strange one at that.

 

What's also sort of strange or interesting is that Theo Epstein with the Cubs is following the same basic pattern of acquiring pitching by free agency and trades, not from within.

[moonslav59]

That has always been the case around here. Surprising since you cannot possibly pay Coaches what you pay players. Why not have assets that can do a better job of developing pitchers? So it would have seemed a no brainer long ago....but the Sox have apparently been pretty resistant to it.

 

I suppose it might have its genesis in the years when Fenway was a real deal HR hitters park. So maybe management decided that they would spend on hitters instead of pitchers and spending on hitters also then drove the management mentality regarding the development and management of pitchers. Worth noting that this team was not always so flush with cash, far from it at times. That might have had an impact as well. Seems that those days ended at the latest with the Fenway seat additions and other modifications to the park itself. Its a doubles park now....the best doubles park in baseball.

 

There wasx a time we did fine drafting and developing pitchers: Clemens, Hurst, Ojeda among others.

[Elktonnick]

Well, Sale had his best stretch of his career with the Sox. Porcello had his best season, by far, with the Sox.

 

Price has had to reinvent himself as a pitcher not a thrower, snd he did it well...with the Sox.

 

I totally agree with the farm aspect of our pitcher development. I've never understood why we haven't gone out and gotten the best in the game to run that area of our farm system.

 

Re Sale and Porcello, their pitching approaches and philosophies were developed elsewhere and were well established habits before they came to Boston. Boston simply hasn't established any consistent pitching approach as have other teams. What has worked for Boston has been acquiring pitching talent. That's fine so long as you don't run up against LUX Tax considerations which is where they are now.

[Elktonnick]

There wasx a time we did fine drafting and developing pitchers: Clemens, Hurst, Ojeda among others.

 

Yes there was but that was a generation ago.

[a700hitter]

There wasx a time we did fine drafting and developing pitchers: Clemens, Hurst, Ojeda among others.

Tudor.