The Mookie Betts Performance Thread

[oldtimer]

2018 might prove to be an outlier, but expecting .900+ this year and next should not be unrealistic.

 

He went 2-7 with a BB and a 2B today. Maybe he starts his hot streak real soon.

 

 

 

Maybe not against Snell? We still only got 6 hits yesterday. We need JDM back real soon.

[devildavid]

2018 might prove to be an outlier, but expecting .900+ this year and next should not be unrealistic.

 

He went 2-7 with a BB and a 2B today. Maybe he starts his hot streak real soon.

 

 

 

Yet 2018 is the only season he was at .900+. Why should we expect him to outperform his career norms?

[Bellhorn04]

Yet 2018 is the only season he was at .900+. Why should we expect him to outperform his career norms?

 

The preseason projections for Mookie had him at an OPS of around .900. I assume the projections are based on weighted averages of recent seasons, age et cetera. All the factors that make sense in such a calculation.

 

But it's all guesswork. You know that. We all know it. It's baseball and there is a lot of unpredictable stuff.

[devildavid]

The preseason projections for Mookie had him at an OPS of around .900. I assume the projections are based on weighted averages of recent seasons, age et cetera. All the factors that make sense in such a calculation.

 

But it's all guesswork. You know that. We all know it. It's baseball and there is a lot of unpredictable stuff.

 

His MVP season has skewed the projections. Mookie is a good ballplayer, but he is not Mike Trout or Willie Mays, even though he had one season hitting at their level. I expect him to hit well, but I temper my expectations based on his overall career so far.

[Bellhorn04]

His MVP season has skewed the projections. Mookie is a good ballplayer, but he is not Mike Trout or Willie Mays, even though he had one season hitting at their level. I expect him to hit well, but I temper my expectations based on his overall career so far.

 

A projection of .900 does not reflect a lot of skewing. He had an .897 in 2016, after all. He's always been .800 or better. He's .840 right now, and we know he's capable of getting hotter than he has been.

[devildavid]

A projection of .900 does not reflect a lot of skewing. He had an .897 in 2016, after all. He's always been .800 or better. He's .840 right now, and we know he's capable of getting hotter than he has been.

 

I don't expect it. His career so far doesn't support it.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't expect it. His career so far doesn't support it.

 

A career OPS of .884 by a 26 year old doesn't support a projected OPS of .900?

 

I disagree wholeheartedly.

[moonslav59]

I don't expect it. His career so far doesn't support it.

 

He just reached peak (26-29).

 

He hit .897 at age 23, battled a wrtist injury at age 24 and still hit .803, then hit 1.078 at age 25.

 

He has struggled this year and still holds an .840 OPS.

 

His 2016-2019 OPS (4 years) is .908!

 

I'm thinking he has 2-3 more .900+ seasons in him.

 

I'd project his 26-29 (4 year) OPS to be over .925.

 

I think people put too much stock in a player's most recent performance level.

[jung]

Anybody looked at some film of Mookie and his swing last year and his swing this year? I have not. I have a feeling that its not as compact this year as last....and therefore not as quick through the strike zone. That might actually be a consequence of swinging at crap. He is getting to two strikes by taking good pitches to hit and then swinging at crap. Then the coup d' grace has been 2 strike crap low on the outer edge and swinging at THOSE pitches appears to have opened up his swing some in an effort to reach dead nuts pitchers pitches. I think its altered his swing on everything now. Worse, he seems to be looking for that pitchers pitch which he can't seem to hit anyway and he is being caught with the bat on his shoulder with two strikes on a pitch he can actually handle. In a word, he is a mess!

 

Can be fixed. But if he is going to keep taking good pitches to hit and swinging at crap, I don't see how this is supposed to get better.

 

Maybe if he does not change it gets marginally better just based on the law of averages.....but markedly better....I don't see it if he keeps on this way.

Edited June 11, 2019 by jung

[oldtimer]

Anybody looked at some film of Mookie and his swing last year and his swing this year? I have not. I have a feeling that its not as compact this year as last....and therefore not as quick through the strike zone. That might actually be a consequence of swinging at crap. He is getting to two strikes by taking good pitches to hit and then swinging at crap. Then the coup d' grace has been 2 strike crap low on the outer edge and swinging at THOSE pitches appears to have opened up his swing some in an effort to reach dead nuts pitchers pitches. I think its altered his swing on everything now. Worse, he seems to be looking for that pitchers pitch which he can't seem to hit anyway and he is being caught with the bat on his shoulder with two strikes on a pitch he can actually handle. In a word, he is a mess!

 

Can be fixed. But if he is going to keep taking good pitches to hit and swinging at crap, I don't see how this is supposed to get better.

 

Maybe if he does not change it gets marginally better just based on the law of averages.....but markedly better....I don't see it if he keeps on this way.

 

It's just not Betts doing that. At the critical juncture in the game, Beni took two strikes, and then fouled off a few before taking a fastball down the middle, Bobaerts also took two finally swinging and Llining out. Last year they seemed to be more prepared to swing at the frrst good pitch. Is it lack of aggressiveness this year that is part of the hittinng problem?

[redsoxrules]

He just reached peak (26-29).

 

He hit .897 at age 23, battled a wrtist injury at age 24 and still hit .803, then hit 1.078 at age 25.

 

He has struggled this year and still holds an .840 OPS.

 

His 2016-2019 OPS (4 years) is .908!

 

I'm thinking he has 2-3 more .900+ seasons in him.

 

I'd project his 26-29 (4 year) OPS to be over .925.

 

I think people put too much stock in a player's most recent performance level.

 

I'd take 2-3 more seasons of over 900 ops but NOT at 300 MIl.

 

This is where we are having an argument. It's not about his actual production but what he is most likely to be seeking once he hits the open market. And hes not worth a 300 million contract.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

Over the past 5 seasons Betts is a .224 BA, .314 SLG hitter when going the opposite way, one of the 10 worst oppo hitters in baseball. Not sure why the huge spike so far this year, he is actually getting more middle and inner thirds of the plate pitches and fewer away.

[moonslav59]

I'd take 2-3 more seasons of over 900 ops but NOT at 300 MIl.

 

This is where we are having an argument. It's not about his actual production but what he is most likely to be seeking once he hits the open market. And hes not worth a 300 million contract.

 

.925 x 3 years with GG defense is probably worth $150M by itself.

 

That may leave $150M for the final 7 years (assuming $300M/10). I'd say he's worth $21.5M for his final 7 years. (BTW, it's not like he'll be 42 in year 10.)

[redsoxrules]

.925 x 3 years with GG defense is probably worth $150M by itself.

 

That may leave $150M for the final 7 years (assuming $300M/10). I'd say he's worth $21.5M for his final 7 years. (BTW, it's not like he'll be 42 in year 10.)

 

For the first 3 years to be worth 150 Million he would have to have 3 season of over 10 WAR and even that might not be enough.

[Swiharts Ghost]

@redsoxstats

 

Over the past 5 seasons Betts is a .224 BA, .314 SLG hitter when going the opposite way, one of the 10 worst oppo hitters in baseball. Not sure why the huge spike so far this year, he is actually getting more middle and inner thirds of the plate pitches and fewer away.

Only a theory .What if he's been aware of that part of his game even more after the MVP ? I mean guys like him work to the bone on all there weaknesses .Maybe just maybe someone needs to be the guy that says " hey dipshit yeah you MVP !!! Stop with the opo mess you suck at it !!! MVP do what bought you to this dance " or flame the F out ? On you clown show .Now I'm aware this is harshing on the millenials but where the hell are the Gibbys ? The Gators ? The Guys that don't let this stuff fly .

[moonslav59]

For the first 3 years to be worth 150 Million he would have to have 3 season of over 10 WAR and even that might not be enough.

 

I'm not a big fan of fangraph's value page, but they have Mookie's value at over $190M the last 3 years (2016-2018).

 

Even in an off year, he'son pace for over $30M value this year.

[SCM33]

I'm not a big fan of fangraph's value page, but they have Mookie's value at over $190M the last 3 years (2016-2018).

 

Even in an off year, he'son pace for over $30M value this year.

 

Which is crazy.

 

Pass.

[devildavid]

He just reached peak (26-29).

 

He hit .897 at age 23, battled a wrtist injury at age 24 and still hit .803, then hit 1.078 at age 25.

 

He has struggled this year and still holds an .840 OPS.

 

His 2016-2019 OPS (4 years) is .908!

 

I'm thinking he has 2-3 more .900+ seasons in him.

 

I'd project his 26-29 (4 year) OPS to be over .925.

 

I think people put too much stock in a player's most recent performance level.

 

I don't put too much stock in one outlier season. I'd project more of the same like his seasons other than 2018.

[moonslav59]

I don't put too much stock in one outlier season. I'd project more of the same like his seasons other than 2018.

 

My highlighted line was a 4 year sample size- not one year. It includes his best and worst seasons.

[Swiharts Ghost]

8 years 32 million take it or leave it don't care ...throw in incentives to cap at 270

[moonslav59]

8 years 32 million take it or leave it don't care ...throw in incentives to cap at 270

 

10 at $300 is essentially paying him $15M per his last 2 years (years 9 & 10 at ages 35 & 36- hardly old at all).

[redsoxrules]

I find the best way to evaluate a player is to take away his worst season and best season and take the avg of the rest. If we do that to Betts he's still good but hes not 300 MIL good. Just because you have won 1 MVP that's not a reason to throw 300 at a guy. I mean look at bryce harper. You take away trouts worst and best year and he's practically the same player. Now that's someone I'd throw over 300 MIL for.

[redsoxrules]

If Betts finishes the year let's say around 850 OPS and then next year about 800 OPS he is going to regret not taking that 200 MIL offer from the Sox as his stock will go down significantly.

[notin]

I find the best way to evaluate a player is to take away his worst season and best season and take the avg of the rest. If we do that to Betts he's still good but hes not 300 MIL good. Just because you have won 1 MVP that's not a reason to throw 300 at a guy. I mean look at bryce harper. You take away trouts worst and best year and he's practically the same player. Now that's someone I'd throw over 300 MIL for.

 

Trout got well over $400mill...

[Bellhorn04]

If Betts finishes the year let's say around 850 OPS and then next year about 800 OPS he is going to regret not taking that 200 MIL offer from the Sox as his stock will go down significantly.

 

Even if that happens, he should equal Machado's deal and be ahead by 100 million.

[Slasher9]

if Mookie stays at this rate he is costing himself a ton of $$. he has another year or 2 to make it back.

although harper did have a pretty meager 2018 and still got well over $300MM...so theres that.....

[Noles_1335]

Do we really want to sink 300 mil plus into Betts... he's a great player when he's on and having a great year but when it's the mediocre year like he's having this year is that what we want with that kind of contract. When he get to the 33-34 year old Mookie, will he still be the defensive player in RF or have moved to LF, will there be any SB's. As of right now the guy leading our team outweighs him by almost 60lbs. All I am saying is that 10 year contracts seem to kill teams at times. We all love Mookie but is it worth the financial handcuff down the road? Enlighten me with opinions

[georom4]

hahaha that inside the park HR...was he on drugs????? wtf - amazing. what an apt metaphor for this crappy year

[georom4]

Do we really want to sink 300 mil plus into Betts... he's a great player when he's on and having a great year but when it's the mediocre year like he's having this year is that what we want with that kind of contract. When he get to the 33-34 year old Mookie, will he still be the defensive player in RF or have moved to LF, will there be any SB's. As of right now the guy leading our team outweighs him by almost 60lbs. All I am saying is that 10 year contracts seem to kill teams at times. We all love Mookie but is it worth the financial handcuff down the road? Enlighten me with opinions

 

No one in baseball is worth a 10 year contract - He could morph into Ellsbury in NY (I doubt it though). But no to any 10 yr deal

[notin]

Do we really want to sink 300 mil plus into Betts... he's a great player when he's on and having a great year but when it's the mediocre year like he's having this year is that what we want with that kind of contract. When he get to the 33-34 year old Mookie, will he still be the defensive player in RF or have moved to LF, will there be any SB's. As of right now the guy leading our team outweighs him by almost 60lbs. All I am saying is that 10 year contracts seem to kill teams at times. We all love Mookie but is it worth the financial handcuff down the road? Enlighten me with opinions

 

10 year deals are insane.

 

But with Betts, there will be no reasonable middle ground. He’s either signing a 8-10 year deal or leaving after next season.

 

He could be traded next month, but how many superstar players have been dealt for a package that was even close to what they brought to the team?