Hitting vs. Fielding by lineup players

[moonslav59]

Like I said, not sure.

 

We’re talking about earned runs, so errors are not a factor. It’s all about defensive plays not made. So it’s tough to get a grasp on...

 

Well, just because it's hard to prove, doesn't mean it isn't a significant factor.

 

My guess is the best defensive SS in MLB makes between 50-90 more plays than the worst defensive SS, assuming every ball hit to both SSs are exactly the same.

 

There is evidence to show the same SSs consistently blow away others in plays made, even when you factor in which SS gets more/less balls hit to him that are playable.

[moonslav59]

The recent trends in shift positioning has probably added some incremental weight to defense, while enhancing pitching stats . Hard hit ground balls or linedrives that used to be routine hits are now regular outs. Ask JBJr, when he does hit the ball. As noted above , contemporary defenses can make an average pitcher appear more effective than he actually deserves. How many games so far has Devers errors actually changed ? Did his misplay bother Brasier so much that the HR was allowed ?

 

A key defensive factor on team or individually is range. W quick defender will convert more of his chances , but may also incur a few more errors because he got to the ball, off balance or after a chase that lesser fielders couldn't make. Effective speed on foot (not a timed 40 yd dash) is a critical talent on offense and defense . Pitchers should want defenders behind them who can run. The Red Sox curent outfield is highly effective because Betts, Beni and Bradley can get to the ball more often than others .

 

The slick 'rocketball" and launch angle trend have made the HR a more significant part of the offense, where one hit is game changing in terms of score. . Josh Smith's one significant mistake last night was a single swing that won the entire game.

 

The one overweight factor for pitching is that every single action in the game is initiated by throwing the ball in the vicinity of home plate. Nothing happens without that catalyst. From there the effectiveness of the pitch is subject to many factors (location, movement, velocity, bat contact point, umpire calls , catcher framing/blocking) . Good to great pitching will almost always overcome hitters ability to reach base more than 25% of the time as seen in last night's game .

 

In regards to Moon's allocation of percentage ranking of positions, I would allow a little more to 1B (say 10%)and 3B , (say 12%) based on the perception that there are more hard hit balls down the lines which can more likely become doubles that hard grounders or line drives in the SS/2B vicinity. Also these two fielders must cover varying amounts of foul grounds and impediments like walls, dugouts and inebriated spectators than the other infielders chasing spinning foul balls.

 

Great points, and my subsequent data dig does show 3B has a lot fo tough plays to make.

[Kimmi]

You've certainly come to the right place for DIPS.

 

LOL I am a big DIPS fan.

[Kimmi]

I vaguely remember seeing an article which claimed that the formula for winning baseball games is like this:

 

Pitching 50%

Offense 40%

Fielding 10%

 

Offense 50%

Defense 50%

 

No matter what percentage of the defense you want to equate to pitching, pitching is never going to be completely independent of fielding.

[notin]

LOL I am a big DIPS fan.

 

 

I’m not entirely sure he was referring to Defense-Independent Pitching Stats...

[moonslav59]

FIP and xFIP have their place, but I've never been a big fan of thinking it's a really good stat.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we just saw one of those costly defensive plays that don't show up in the box score with Davis failing to catch the foul pop by Mookie, and Mookie walking on the next pitch for a run.

[vegasbob]

I think we just saw one of those costly defensive plays that don't show up in the box score with Davis failing to catch the foul pop by Mookie, and Mookie walking on the next pitch for a run.

 

Correct Observation. If Davis had caught that ball, it would have changed the innings outcome.

[Larry Cook]

Offense 50%

Defense 50%

 

No matter what percentage of the defense you want to equate to pitching, pitching is never going to be completely independent of fielding.

 

Pitching, defense and timely hitting is the not so secret formula to winning a World Series. The secret part of the equation is relative health.

[Spudboy]

You've certainly come to the right place for DIPS.

 

Hahahahahahaha!1!!

[Kimmi]

I’m not entirely sure he was referring to Defense-Independent Pitching Stats...

 

I figured.

 

I didn't want to go down that road.

[Kimmi]

FIP and xFIP have their place, but I've never been a big fan of thinking it's a really good stat.

 

Those are good stats. But as with all other stats, you have to look at the whole picture.

[Kimmi]

Pitching, defense and timely hitting is the not so secret formula to winning a World Series. The secret part of the equation is relative health.

 

Relatively good health is always a key factor.

[sk7326]

I do not know what the exact percentages are, but I very much disagree with you that most of the team's defense is independent of the quality of fielders. This is why ERA is not a very good stat, and why the need for DIPS arose.

 

I also disagree that hitting is at least 3 times as important as fielding. Preventing a run is just as important as scoring a run. A pitcher cannot prevent runs on his own.

 

mathematically, preventing a run is probably MORE important than scoring a run on some level. The likelihood of winning scoring 7 runs instead of 6 runs is not going to that high. I mean if you plot (using Play Index) runs scored vs winning pct, there are diminishing returns to scoring additional runs.

[sk7326]

Those are good stats. But as with all other stats, you have to look at the whole picture.

 

All the stats are fine - the problem is usually at the inference level.

[moonslav59]

All the stats are fine - the problem is usually at the inference level.

 

Truer words have never been spoken.

[Maxbialystock]

Well, just because it's hard to prove, doesn't mean it isn't a significant factor.

 

My guess is the best defensive SS in MLB makes between 50-90 more plays than the worst defensive SS, assuming every ball hit to both SSs are exactly the same.

 

There is evidence to show the same SSs consistently blow away others in plays made, even when you factor in which SS gets more/less balls hit to him that are playable.

 

Why do you insist on comparing the worst to the best? To me it makes a whole lot more sense to compare the best to the middle of the pack guys, who have some range, but not great range. And in that case I would argue that some middle of the road guys do pretty well, maybe because, lacking great range, they get to be pretty consistent. You know, a guy like Bogie.

 

Speaking of which, did you know that the master shortstop Iglesias has started 32 games to Bogie's 36 games and has 106 TC's to Bogie's 133? But Iglesias has a DWAR of .9 and to Bogie's .3 (at least it's positive). Anyway, I would further argue that the number of total chances depends on other factors than the range of the SS.

[moonslav59]

Why do you insist on comparing the worst to the best? To me it makes a whole lot more sense to compare the best to the middle of the pack guys, who have some range, but not great range. And in that case I would argue that some middle of the road guys do pretty well, maybe because, lacking great range, they get to be pretty consistent. You know, a guy like Bogie.

 

Speaking of which, did you know that the master shortstop Iglesias has started 32 games to Bogie's 36 games and has 106 TC's to Bogie's 133? But Iglesias has a DWAR of .9 and to Bogie's .3 (at least it's positive). Anyway, I would further argue that the number of total chances depends on other factors than the range of the SS.

 

Okay, best to middle might make 35-50 more plays over a year.

 

Yes, I said TC's based on if both compared SSs had the exact same amount and type of hits to them. (hypothetical)

 

If you disagree, how many more plays to you think the best SS makes vs the middle one?