What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?

[moonslav59]

So is Chris Freakin’ Sale, whose like 3 months younger. But Sale got a raise...

 

Sale was making peanuts. Sale is way better than Porcello. Sale did not get a very long deal.

[notin]

Sale was making peanuts. Sale is way better than Porcello. Sale did not get a very long deal.

 

Sale’s deal was for less money, but he took it to avoid risk.

 

He’s still post prime, and Porcello is the same age.

 

If you think Dombrowski is going to offer a 3 year $45mill deal to Porcello, that deal feels very light compared to the contracts he likes to write. His keyboard doesn’t even have a “$45mill” key...

[harmony]

How about a comp with Seattle righthander Mike Leake, who is one year older (and seven inches shorter) than Rick Porcello?

 

This year's bWAR and fWAR are contrasting:

 

RP 0.3 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR

ML 1.8 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR*

 

Apparently value is in the eye of the beholder.

 

For their careers:

 

RP 325 G, 321 GS, 1943.2 IP, 101 ERA+, 18.9 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR

ML 283 G, 278 GS, 1720.2 IP, 99 ERA+, 14.4 bWAR, 17.3 fWAR*

 

Following the 2015 season the St. Louis Cardinals signed Leake to a five-year, $80 million contract. In 106 starts since (not counting Sunday), Leake had posted 7.9 fWAR, valued at $63 million, over nearly three and a half seasons.

 

Four months later the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5 million extension that covered his first four free agent seasons. In 113 starts since, Porcello has posted 10.5 fWAR, valued at $84.5 million, including his Cy Young 2016 season.

 

Since the start of the 2017 season, Porcello and Leake (and David Price) have each posted 5.4 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=&page=2_30

 

Some have suggested that Leake's contract is under water with roughly a net $27 million owed through the 2020 season.

 

Feedback is welcome.

 

* the numbers do not include Leake's 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 7 K, 0 BB performance on Sunday

Edited June 17, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Sale’s deal was for less money, but he took it to avoid risk.

 

He’s still post prime, and Porcello is the same age.

 

If you think Dombrowski is going to offer a 3 year $45mill deal to Porcello, that deal feels very light compared to the contracts he likes to write. His keyboard doesn’t even have a “$45mill” key...

 

I don't think any GM thinks of Sale and Porcello as being close in value.

[Bellhorn04]

How about a comp with Seattle righthander Mike Leake, who is one year older (and seven inches shorter) than Rick Porcello?

 

This year's bWAR and fWAR are contrasting:

 

RP 0.3 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR

ML 1.8 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR*

 

Apparently value is in the eye of the beholder.

 

Leake's fWAR was much lower than his bWAR due to his 5.35 FIP, which was a result of 20 long balls allowed in 88.2 IP.

 

He is a little Porcello-ish though.

[notin]

Leake's fWAR was much lower than his bWAR due to his 5.35 FIP, which was a result of 20 long balls allowed in 88.2 IP.

 

He is a little Porcello-ish though.

 

I believe he’s actually older than Porcello, and made his MLB debut a year later despite starting his skipping the minors...

[harmony]

I believe he’s actually older than Porcello, and made his MLB debut a year later despite starting his skipping the minors...

Rick Porcello was drafted out of high school in 2007 while Mike Leake was drafted in 2009 following a successful college career at Arizona State.

[TylerD]

Total or per year?

 

Both are crazy, but a 3 year $63mill deal might work...

 

My bad meant 21 mill a year.... Should have made that more clear. I don't think it's that crazy for a pitcher that constantly delivers you 6 innings, never gets hurt, and gives you a chance to win every time he is out. That is what a 3rd or 4th man should do for you. If you go much cheaper than that or go for someone more unknown because it saves you money there is a good chance he will suck and won't be worth a dollar a year.

[TylerD]

Well I guess I'm nuts then. I still think Porcello could get 15 or 20 mill a year. Not getting hurt and constantly making your starts and delivering 6 plus innings every single time should not be over looked. Yes Rick can give up his "Porcello's" but hey.... So do a lot of pitchers. There is not a single team I think we can't beat when Rick is pitching. Porcello might be a 3rd spot on our rotation but honestly I think he could crack a 2nd spot right behind an Ace on a lot of teams in the league. You can usually count on Porcello going 6 or 7 innings and maybe giving up 2 runs. As long as the offense remotely shows some life and the bullpen doesn't completely mess up their job Rick will get you a win nearly every single time.....

 

And yes he can have the odd bad game but every pitcher can. That is baseball. Just like Price's last start.

[TylerD]

I don't think any GM thinks of Sale and Porcello as being close in value.

 

Well Sale is arguably one of the best if not the best pitcher in the league so I agree Porcello shouldn't be compared to Sale..... However people thinking Porcello shouldn't get anywhere close to 20 mil a year I think are kidding themselves. Porcello is a very good pitcher.

[notin]

I don't think any GM thinks of Sale and Porcello as being close in value.

 

No, but I bet most GMs view their declines as potentially coinciding. If Sale still merits a raise with his loftier peak, Porcello is not likely to see such a drastic pay cut.

 

I think Porcello either gets a smaller AAV in the $16-18mill range or sees a slight increase but on a short term deal...

[TylerD]

No, but I bet most GMs view their declines as potentially coinciding. If Sale still merits a raise with his loftier peak, Porcello is not likely to see such a drastic pay cut.

 

I think Porcello either gets a smaller AAV in the $16-18mill range or sees a slight increase but on a short term deal...

 

Agreed with this.

[moonslav59]

No, but I bet most GMs view their declines as potentially coinciding. If Sale still merits a raise with his loftier peak, Porcello is not likely to see such a drastic pay cut.

 

I think Porcello either gets a smaller AAV in the $16-18mill range or sees a slight increase but on a short term deal...

 

Sale was grossly underpaid before his raise: Porcello is not being overpaid, right now. Many felt Sale would make more than $30M per year, and with the deferred money, his $29M a year is really less than that.

 

I do not think Porcello will make $20M+. I could be wrong, and comparing him to the older Keuchel was not a good comp on my part. I could see him making $16-17M tops, but I would not offer him more than $15M x 3 or $14M x 4 years, and I'm a big Porcello supporter. I loved the extension when many did not, because he was in prime the whole time.

 

I'd start with an offer of $50M/4. Second offer: $42M/3. If he says no, maybe I'd go as high as I said above, or maybe I just offer him a QO and be fine with either way it ends up.

[Nick]

Someone's math doesn't add up.

 

There are only 19 starting pitchers making $20M+ in mlb including Porcello.

 

And a poster thinks $20M is typical salary for #3/#4 pitcher?

 

There are 30 teams in mlb. I'll be generous and say that Porcello's resume is that of #2 pitcher.

 

I realize there are several pitchers still under team control.

 

But still, I don't see giving a $20M salary to team's #3 pitcher who pitches like a #3 pitcher.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Nick

[TylerD]

Someone's math doesn't add up.

 

There are only 19 starting pitchers making $20M+ in mlb including Porcello.

 

And a poster thinks $20M is typical salary for #3/#4 pitcher?

 

There are 30 teams in mlb. I'll be generous and say that Porcello's resume is that of #2 pitcher.

 

I realize there are several pitchers still under team control.

 

But still, I don't see giving a $20M salary to team's #3 pitcher who pitches like a #3 pitcher.

He doesn’t pitch like a number 3. This is the friggin point I’m trying to make. I’m not saying he’s the best 2nd man in the league but he’s not a typical number 3 pitcher. I have been going into stats and games all thread about it so I won’t go into again. Paper readers who just look at ERA don’t understand it. Not saying you are. But it is what it is

 

Oh look.... Rick was flawless tonight against the second best offense in the league.

[moonslav59]

He doesn’t pitch like a number 3. This is the friggin point I’m trying to make. I’m not saying he’s the best 2nd man in the league but he’s not a typical number 3 pitcher. I have been going into stats and games all thread about it so I won’t go into again. Paper readers who just look at ERA don’t understand it. Not saying you are. But it is what it is

 

Oh look.... Rick was flawless tonight against the second best offense in the league.

 

Some might argue Cole is better (Verlander 1/ Cloe 2).

[TylerD]

Some might argue Cole is better (Verlander 1/ Cloe 2).

 

Ya fair point. I do like Cole myself actually. I won’t argue that.

[moonslav59]

On how Porcello ranks...

 

From 2016-2019 (144 pitchers with 350+ IP)

 

WAR: 21st at 10.6 (ahead of Lester, Price & Archer)

 

WHIP: 32nd at 1.21

 

ERA-: 48th at 90

 

xFIP: 69th

 

If you go by 1-30 are number ones, and 31-60 are number twos, then one can easily argue Porcello is a solid #2 or even a low #1.

 

I would never call him a #3. He's way better than just about every team's #3, if not all of them.

[S5Dewey]

On how Porcello ranks...

 

From 2016-2019 (144 pitchers with 350+ IP)

 

WAR: 21st at 10.6 (ahead of Lester, Price & Archer)

 

WHIP: 32nd at 1.21

 

ERA-: 48th at 90

 

xFIP: 69th

 

If you go by 1-30 are number ones, and 31-60 are number twos, then one can easily argue Porcello is a solid #2 or even a low #1.

 

I would never call him a #3. He's way better than just about every team's #3, if not all of them.

 

Exactly right. There's a big difference between being a #3 behind Chris Sale & David Price and being a #3 in the Baltimore staff. Porcillo would be the #1 or #2 in Baltimore

[TylerD]

On how Porcello ranks...

 

From 2016-2019 (144 pitchers with 350+ IP)

 

WAR: 21st at 10.6 (ahead of Lester, Price & Archer)

 

WHIP: 32nd at 1.21

 

ERA-: 48th at 90

 

xFIP: 69th

 

If you go by 1-30 are number ones, and 31-60 are number twos, then one can easily argue Porcello is a solid #2 or even a low #1.

 

I would never call him a #3. He's way better than just about every team's #3, if not all of them.

 

Thanks for posting that stat! Not many teams have a Sale and Price who are both Acea. Next to impossible to be a number 2 guys when both of them are on the team.

[TylerD]

Exactly right. There's a big difference between being a #3 behind Chris Sale & David Price and being a #3 in the Baltimore staff. Porcillo would be the #1 or #2 in Baltimore

Well said!

[moonslav59]

Thanks for posting that stat! Not many teams have a Sale and Price who are both Acea. Next to impossible to be a number 2 guys when both of them are on the team.

 

Porcello's better WAR ranking than other categories is in large part a result of IP.

 

2016-2019 IP

749 Scherzer

748 Verlander

698 Porcello

689 Sale

669 Kluber

663 Greinke

 

Only 22 pitchers have 595+ IP (Less than 1 per team)

Only 52 pitchers have over 500 IP (less than 2 per team)

Only 93 teams have 400+ IP (about 3 per team)

 

I'm not downplaying innings. They are a huge asset, and that's why WAR has him as more valuable than the other categories I listed.

[Nick]

He doesn’t pitch like a number 3. This is the friggin point I’m trying to make. I’m not saying he’s the best 2nd man in the league but he’s not a typical number 3 pitcher. I have been going into stats and games all thread about it so I won’t go into again. Paper readers who just look at ERA don’t understand it. Not saying you are. But it is what it is

 

Oh look.... Rick was flawless tonight against the second best offense in the league.

 

My only point was not very many starting pitchers make $22M.

[moonslav59]

My only point was not very many starting pitchers make $22M.

 

I agree, and Porcello is not in prime after this year.

 

His last deal was perfect. All his years were in prime.

 

I don't think he's worth $22M.

 

I don't think anyone will offer him $20M x 4 or more years (or even 3 years).

 

I'm thinking $15-17M x 4 is what he will likely get.

 

I don't think I'd go any higher than $15M x 4 (and I've come up recently).

[harmony]

On how Porcello ranks...

 

From 2016-2019 (144 pitchers with 350+ IP)

 

WAR: 21st at 10.6 (ahead of Lester, Price & Archer)

 

WHIP: 32nd at 1.21

 

ERA-: 48th at 90

 

xFIP: 69th

 

If you go by 1-30 are number ones, and 31-60 are number twos, then one can easily argue Porcello is a solid #2 or even a low #1.

 

I would never call him a #3. He's way better than just about every team's #3, if not all of them.

Rick Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 was a clear outlier in the righthander's 11-season career.

 

Since the start of the 2017 season Porcello ranks 46th* among all starters in fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&page=2_30

 

Which has value.

 

* not counting Monday's stellar performance, which should lift Porcello into a tie with Seattle righthander Mike Leake

[moonslav59]

Rick Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 was a clear outlier in the righthander's 11-season career.

 

Since the start of the 2017 season Porcello ranks 46th* among all starters in fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&page=2_30

 

Which has value.

 

* not counting Monday's stellar performance, which should lift Porcello into a tie with Seattle righthander Mike Leake

 

Well, 46th places him in the 31-60 category, or right smack in the middle of #2 starters in MLB.

 

He still is not a #3.

 

Sale is a #1- maybe the best or 2nd best (to Scherzer)

Price is a solid #1.

Porcello is a solid to upper end #2.

ERod is a solid #3 when using the 30 pitchers per category methodology.

 

[TylerD]

My only point was not very many starting pitchers make $22M.

 

That’s fair. At the end of the day hopefully Porcello takes a good discount. I hope he doesn’t leave.

[TylerD]

I agree, and Porcello is not in prime after this year.

 

His last deal was perfect. All his years were in prime.

 

I don't think he's worth $22M.

 

I don't think anyone will offer him $20M x 4 or more years (or even 3 years).

 

I'm thinking $15-17M x 4 is what he will likely get.

 

I don't think I'd go any higher than $15M x 4 (and I've come up recently).

 

Maybe he won’t mind. He wants to stay in Boston. Maybe he will be generous

[moonslav59]

150 pitchers have 180+ IP since 2017 (5 per 30 teams). 180 IP is not a lot, but here are Porcello's more recent rankings:

 

fWAR

2. Sale 16.5

49. Porcello 5.4 (Mid #2)

54. ERod 5.2

57. Price 5.0

 

 

xFIP

1. Sale 2.59

49.Price 3.96

53. ERod 4.06

78. Porcello 4.32 (Mid #3)

 

ERA-

1. Sale 60

21. Price 80

50. ERod 91

76. Porcello 99 (Mid #3)

 

WHIP

2. Sale 0.93

26. Price 1.17

71. ERod 1.30

74. Porcello 1.30 (Mid #3)

 

All together, since 2017, these numbers show he's a better than average #3 starter. It's interesting to see he has a higher WAR than Price.

[moonslav59]

Maybe he won’t mind. He wants to stay in Boston. Maybe he will be generous

 

I'm not sure $60M/4 is all that much lower than what he may get on the open market, but he will probably view it as a "hometown discount."

 

I would not be surprised, if DD has decided he's not worth that much and will offer him something like $50M/4, and if he says no, go with the QO.