Devers

[Slasher9]

back to Devers....his 3b defense has been stellar for a good stretch now after a rough start to the season.

Feeling more confident in my prediction that he will be our starting 3bman for the next 10 years may actually come true.....

[Bellhorn04]

back to Devers....his 3b defense has been stellar for a good stretch now after a rough start to the season.

Feeling more confident in my prediction that he will be our starting 3bman for the next 10 years may actually come true.....

 

Cora says Devers has been working his ass off on D. Great stuff.

[cp176]

I understand your wish, and I'm not sure any data exists to answer your questions.

 

My guess is, you still want your best OBP guys bunched together in front of your best power guys, and the higher up in the line-up you place them, the better chance they get up 1 more time in a game.

 

In terms of the 3 vs the 5 slot hitters, our 3rd batter got up 33 more times than our 5th hitter in 2018. That's a lot. The rest of the ABs must really be more important than we imagine for the studies to show having your better hitter 5th outweighs those extra 33 PAs.

 

I agree, it doesn't seem to make sense, and again, the difference the studies show apparently are very slight, but I trust the studies know what they are doing, and the results are valid.

 

Maybe, I trust science more than I should. Maybe future studies will show a difference, but as far as I know, not one study shows otherwise.

 

BTW, it's not like our 5th best hitter sucks as a 3rd batter in the line-up.

 

Our best 2 hitters are Betts and JD with Devers and Bogey challenging this year. That leaves Beni (who is slumping now) or the Moreland-Pearce platoon as the philosophy's recommended 3 slot batter. I'm fine with that, but I agree that it looks better with them up 5th (old school thinking).

 

Before all these studies came out, I'd have advocated for this...

 

1. Betts

2. Bogey

3. JD

4. Devers

5. Beni v R/Pearce v L

6. Moreland v R/Beni v L

7. Chavis

8. Vaz

9. JBJ

 

I'd still be okay with this, as the slight advantages lost may be close to negligible.

 

 

 

 

 

I appreciate your taking the time to respond to my question in a thoughtful way. And personally, I am going to say that yes I would keep JD in either the 3 or the 4 hole. I just think that there are so many factors affecting what constitutes a "best" hitter projection. My bet is that you can find data to support just about any idea that you might have. I do find it kind of odd that there isn't available data to answer the initial question that I asked - once you get by the first inning, who gets to the plate the most and who in all likelyhood would have the greatest opportunity to come up in high leverage situations. I understand that to some this might seem like a silly question but unless it can be answered, I will always have a hard time understanding how anyone can be so goodamn sure that they know precisely where the best hitter in any lineup should be placed. If you are the one picking an choosing the data that you like, i guess that it is easy. Not so much for me. I also understand what comes next from some - let it go, who cares, it doesn't make much difference. I get all of that as well - in the meantime, I guess I'll go along with the manager's decision.

thanks again Moon!

[notin]

I do find it kind of odd that there isn't available data to answer the initial question that I asked - once you get by the first inning, who gets to the plate the most and who in all likelyhood would have the greatest opportunity to come up in high leverage situations.

 

Well, according to the fine people at Notin Industries, a wholly owned subsidiary of Notin TransGlobal MegaCorp (NTMC) (long time since I broke that out), the answers are:

 

1. The fourth hitter comes up the most after the first inning

2. The greatest opportunity for high leverage - which is very game flow dependent - doesn’t change since the percentage of high leverage opportunities in the first inning is minimal.

 

No actual research was conducted for these answers...

[cp176]

Well, according to the fine people at Notin Industries, a wholly owned subsidiary of Notin TransGlobal MegaCorp (NTMC) (long time since I broke that out), the answers are:

 

1. The fourth hitter comes up the most after the first inning

2. The greatest opportunity for high leverage - which is very game flow dependent - doesn’t change since the percentage of high leverage opportunities in the first inning is minimal.

 

No actual research was conducted for these answers...

 

I am okay with the information coming out of the NTMC. The organization's (I'm sure) flawless reputation for precise accuracy is one that I can live with. i'll go with this and be at peace although i'm petty sure that soon that some other malcontent will be giving their interpretation of solid data explaining why there is justification for batting your "best hitter" (whatever the hell that might mean) wherever they happen to think he should be.

Oh and just as an aside - I'm all about the no actual research part of this.

[Bellhorn04]

I am okay with the information coming out of the NTMC. The organization's (I'm sure) flawless reputation for precise accuracy is one that I can live with. i'll go with this and be at peace although i'm petty sure that soon that some other malcontent will be giving their interpretation of solid data explaining why there is justification for batting your "best hitter" (whatever the hell that might mean) wherever they happen to think he should be.

Oh and just as an aside - I'm all about the no actual research part of this.

 

cp, I set up a separate thread for this like I promised. Why won't you post there?

[mvp 78]

back to Devers....his 3b defense has been stellar for a good stretch now after a rough start to the season.

Feeling more confident in my prediction that he will be our starting 3bman for the next 10 years may actually come true.....

 

Wow, way to go out on a limb there...

 

Some of us have been tooting the GG horn for a while now.

[Slasher9]

Cora says Devers has been working his ass off on D. Great stuff.

 

yeah man. i definitely respect any of these guys that put in the "extra" work to improve their craft. it's even better when it starts to show fruit..

it also looks like rafi lost some weight over the offseason and has kept it off thus far. i really think that has helped as well.

[Slasher9]

Wow, way to go out on a limb there...

 

Some of us have been tooting the GG horn for a while now.

 

hahaha. today wasnt when i originally stated it but yes, you have been a rafi @ 3b supporter for a long time as well.

[mvp 78]

hahaha. today wasnt when i originally stated it but yes, you have been a rafi @ 3b supporter for a long time as well.

 

Don't forget who's driving this bandwagon!

 

All aboard!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm just really glad that Devers isn't stuck with some dumb gimmick like the "Judge's Chambers." That s*** is the absolute dirt worst.

[notin]

Wow, way to go out on a limb there...

 

Some of us have been tooting the GG horn for a while now.

 

He did win some sort of Defensive Player of the Year award in the minors. So really so far his defense has been more of a disappointment than anything else...

[mvp 78]

He did win some sort of Defensive Player of the Year award in the minors. So really so far his defense has been more of a disappointment than anything else...

 

Basing a pitcher's effectiveness solely on wins is dumb.

 

Basing a fielder's effectiveness soley on errors is dumb. People just REALLY overstated how bad his defense was. He was young and busting his ass at the position. It was so obvious it was going to get better.

[notin]

Basing a pitcher's effectiveness solely on wins is dumb.

 

Basing a fielder's effectiveness soley on errors is dumb. People just REALLY overstated how bad his defense was. He was young and busting his ass at the position. It was so obvious it was going to get better.

 

Errors are not the only defensive metric he hasn’t done well on.

 

Absolute worst case scenario for Devers is he does get moved to 1b, as hit bat got him to Boston.

 

But I think they keep him at 3b and move Dalbec elsewhere...

[mvp 78]

Errors are not the only defensive metric he hasn’t done well on.

 

Absolute worst case scenario for Devers is he does get moved to 1b, as hit bat got him to Boston.

 

But I think they keep him at 3b and move Dalbec elsewhere...

 

Yeah, I don't think Dalbec ever plays for BOS. He hasn't made the progress this year I was hoping to see.

[notin]

Yeah, I don't think Dalbec ever plays for BOS. He hasn't made the progress this year I was hoping to see.

 

I was never all that high on him. Reportedly Cora liked his defense in Spring Training, but I don’t think his fascination goes much beyond that...

[OH FOY]

Last time Raffy made an error was on May 2. 85 chances 0 errors. It looks like he's figuring out for a 22 year old. Fantastic.

Dalbec will be Trade bait, or moved to another position. Isn't Dalbec 23 years old, in Double AA. Not even close in conversation. He'll be 24 on June 29th. He's 2 years older then Devers.

By the way Dalbec has made 8 errors in 97 chances.

Devers 9 errors in 179 chances.....in the Majors.

Edited June 6, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Last time Raffy made an error was on May 2. 85 chances 0 errors. It looks like he's figuring out for a 22 year old. Fantastic.

Dalbec will be Trade bait, or moved. Isn't Dalbec 23 years old, in Double AA. Not even close in conversation. He'll be 24 on June 29th. He's 2 years older then Devers.

 

And probably a future Russ Branyan clone. Which does give him a respectable MLB career, but also makes him very expendable...

[mvp 78]

And probably a future Russ Branyan clone. Which does give him a respectable MLB career, but also makes him very expendable...

 

Poor man's Joey Gallo?

[notin]

Poor man's Joey Gallo?

 

 

Very poor man’s. And not the 2019 Gallo...

[mvp 78]

Very poor man’s. And not the 2019 Gallo...

 

Not sure how sustainable his 385 BABIP is, but he was killing it before he got injured.

[OH FOY]

Raffy has tremendous Power to Left Field, as the season progresses, and he feels even more comfortable, and starts going more to Left, really watch out then.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

 

Rafael Devers had 3 RBI in his first 24 games (through Apr. 23). In 36 games since then, his 35 RBI rank T-1st in the AL.

 

Devers leads the AL with 52 hits since Apr. 25. In 35 games in that time, he has hit .344 with 9 HR, 33 RBI, and a .995 OPS.

[mvp 78]

Raffy has tremendous Power to Left Field, as the season progresses, and he feels even more comfortable, and starts going more to Left, really watch out then.

 

Yup. His power to LF is what stood out back when I followed him in AA.

[cp176]

cp, I set up a separate thread for this like I promised. Why won't you post there?

 

I'm sorry Bell - I just saw the thread. Everything I said goes for the other thread as well! I could have added that I am stubborn as well.

[notin]

Not sure how sustainable his 385 BABIP is, but he was killing it before he got injured.

 

 

And he’s actually spent more time in CF than any other position. Who saw that coming?

[mvp 78]

And he’s actually spent more time in CF than any other position. Who saw that coming?

 

Joey Gallo playing CF in 2019 has a higher dWAR than JBJ.

[Slasher9]

Joey Gallo playing CF in 2019 has a higher dWAR than JBJ.

 

dWAR is terrible stat. for real tell me you think Gallo is better then JBj at CF D.

[S5Dewey]

dWAR is terrible stat. for real tell me you think Gallo is better then JBj at CF D.

 

I keep hearing more and more evidence that makes me think that dWAR is a bogus stat.

[mvp 78]

dWAR is terrible stat. for real tell me you think Gallo is better then JBj at CF D.

 

This year, Gallo is better than JBJ in CF. JBJ is getting slower and may need to be put in RF going forward. Sad!

[mvp 78]

I keep hearing more and more evidence that makes me think that dWAR is a bogus stat.

 

It's more valuable than your eye test. Unless your evidence is something more than "my binky JBJ's dWAR sucks so it must be a bad stat."