Can the Mets be that stupid?

[harmony]

If after you deduct the lost cost of Bruce, Cano only costs the Mets $5-10M a year, then getting Diaz with cano is not bad at all, but let's wait and see how the money all shakes out.

Robinson Cano is owed $120 million over five years, Jay Bruce $29 million over two years and Anthony Swarzak $8 million over one year. To get the net annual cost of Cano down to $5 million to $10 million, the Mariners would need to send the Mets between $33 million and $58 million.

 

I don't see that happening.

[moonslav59]

Robinson Cano is owed $120 million over five years, Jay Bruce $29 million over two years and Anthony Swarzak $8 million over one year. To get the net annual cost of Cano down to $5 million to $10 million, the Mariners would need to send the Mets between $33 million and $58 million.

 

I don't see that happening.

 

I meant that was the break even point on Cano alone. Now, add what Diaz is worth minus his expected contract cost. If that is worth $5-10M more a year vs market cost of a FA, then deduct that from what the M's should need to pay.

[jacksonianmarch]

This trade boils down to two separate deals

 

Diaz for the three Mets prospects

 

Cano plus $20 mil for Bruce and Swarzak. The Cano deal essentially ends up being 5 yrs $66 mil for the Mets. That’s not terrible for his production, although the years are long for a guy his age. I still think they could have gotten a prospect for Cano at that price. Diaz for the three is probably a good return, although they may have gotten better from a team in dire need who is in their window. I think they should break up the trade and if both trade partners end up being the Mets, so be it

[Bellhorn04]

It's an odd deal, but I don't think it's the disaster for the Mets it was first made out to be.

[Kimmi]

How does it have nothing to do with anything? Some posters wanted Diaz . The Mets apparently are getting him . But they are stupid? Dumping Cano was always coupled with a Diaz trade. Personally , I don't want Cano . But he can still hit . The Mets need a closer and some more offense . If Seattle is picking up a good part of his contract and the Mets are unloading a couple of bad contracts, it could work out for them. Why not wait until we see how the Mets do this year before deciding they were fleeced ?

 

Wanting a player and disliking a bad deal to get the player are two different things. It's okay for fans to really want a player like Diaz, and then turn around and criticize a deal that was made for him.

 

FTR, I don't think the Mets were fleeced, that is with my understanding that the Mariners are sending $60 mil to the Mets. But if the Mets are taking on most of Cano's salary, then IMO, it's a bad deal for them. If the Mets win the World Series, it will be worth it.

[Northern Star]

If the Mets win the World Series

 

[Kimmi]

Depends on the money. It could be a win-win if the Mariners send no more than $25 million on top of the $37 million owed Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak.

 

Edwin Diaz has significant surplus value and Robinson Cano is probably worth at least $60 million over five years after posting 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, over the first five years of his $240 million contract with Seattle. Steamer projects Cano with a 2019 WAR of 3.0, which is valued at about $25 million. Cano is only 18 months older than Nelson Cruz was four years ago when the Mariners signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract. Cruz had a prior banned-substance suspension as well but came with less defensive value and a less-established record of production. The Mariner don't regret the contract with Cruz, who posted 14.7 fWAR, valued at $126.3 million, with Seattle.

 

It's tough waiting for all of this to play out.

 

I am pretty much in agreement with this.

 

I understand how you feel about waiting for everything to play out. It drives me crazy.

[Kimmi]

LOL Northern Star

[Northern Star]

The Cano deal essentially ends up being 5 yrs $66 mil for the Mets.

 

I think your math is off. They were on the hook for $36mil and now they're on the hook for $80mil for one player who's likely to decline, is in PEDs foul trouble, and whose only reason for being back in NY is being a former client of the GM. I really don't see much upside here for the Mets.

 

And now they might be in on Kluber, possibly swapping him out for Thor.

Edited December 3, 2018 by Northern Star

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. If this were the Guardians trying to get to the top of the heap in one final push, I’d understand it, but the Mets are an entire offense away from competing. They already had a good closer in Familia and still ended up below .500. Adding a guy like Diaz, while better than Familia, is not gonna fix the fact that they cannot hit. I get that Cano upgrades the offense, but a lineup of Nimmo, Conforto, Cano and essentially a bunch of no hit guys isn’t going to win ball games in a tough NL East. If this was dealing for an asset at the low point of value, I’d get it. If that’s the case, then they’d spin off Cano and eat even more money and grab someone useful while also dealing off Diaz for a kings ransom. But it’s the Mets, and I’m sure they’ll try to compete and only end up below .500 again, then be stuck with a Cano that needs to be a 1b and a not so cheap closer

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Buster Olney raised this question:

 

“Given the particulars of the trade and the market context, the core question for the Mets in this deal is this: Do they think the quality difference in 70 innings of Diaz vs. 70 innings of a Robertson or Jeurys Familia is worth taking on $60MM of Cano money and swapping two of their top 10 prospects,”

The answer, of course, should be no, but the Mets are a lost organization. The Mets would be better off signing David Robertson or Z.Britton, avoid Cano, and keep the prospects. In turn, the Mets could use Kelenic as a piece to upgrade the offense with a hitter who isn't 36 years old and coming off a PED suspension.

[harmony]

It's an odd deal, but I don't think it's the disaster for the Mets it was first made out to be.

In an ideal world a good trade benefits each side. This could be a good trade.

 

Thoughts shared elsewhere:

 

Isolated on Edwin Diaz, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, the reported blockbuster represents a classic sell-high, buy-low for the Seattle Mariners.

 

This year Diaz posted 3.5 fWAR, Bruce 0.1 fWAR and Swarzak a negative 0.4 fWAR.

 

In 2017 Diaz posted 1.0 fWAR, Bruce 2.6 fWAR and Swarzak 2.2 fWAR.

 

Bruce and Swarzak are owed a combined $37 million: Bruce $29 million over two years and Swarzak $8 million in 2019 only. In 2017 Bruce and Swarzak combined for 4.8 fWAR, valued at $38.1 million, in a single season.

 

Given their ages, Diaz and the others may be on different trajectories. Nevertheless Bruce and Swarzak may be more than sunken costs for the Mariners.

[dgalehouse]

As always, we can have our opinions. We can dig up stats to support them. Just have to see how it plays out. Personally, I think the Mets will make the post season before the Mariners. Not that I care.

[harmony]

As always, we can have our opinions. We can dig up stats to support them. Just have to see how it plays out. Personally, I think the Mets will make the post season before the Mariners. Not that I care.

Not that this Seattle fan particularly cares either.

[moonslav59]

As always, we can have our opinions. We can dig up stats to support them. Just have to see how it plays out. Personally, I think the Mets will make the post season before the Mariners. Not that I care.

 

They should. The M's are rebuilding. The Mets are creating a window to win now.

[Bellhorn04]

Buster Olney raised this question:

 

 

The answer, of course, should be no, but the Mets are a lost organization. The Mets would be better off signing David Robertson or Z.Britton, avoid Cano, and keep the prospects. In turn, the Mets could use Kelenic as a piece to upgrade the offense with a hitter who isn't 36 years old and coming off a PED suspension.

 

Yeah, now that the final money numbers are apparently in, this looks like a weird-bad deal for the Mets. The other options being pointed out certainly seem to be better.

[notin]

Buster Olney raised this question:

 

 

The answer, of course, should be no, but the Mets are a lost organization. The Mets would be better off signing David Robertson or Z.Britton, avoid Cano, and keep the prospects. In turn, the Mets could use Kelenic as a piece to upgrade the offense with a hitter who isn't 36 years old and coming off a PED suspension.

 

But it isn’t 70 IP of Diaz. It’s probably closer to 250 IP. He’s under control for 4 years, something that shouldn’t be ignored.

 

The Mets may or may be competitive in 2019. But if they can right the ship by 2021 or 2022, will they be better off with Diaz or Robertson?

[Bellhorn04]

But it isn’t 70 IP of Diaz. It’s probably closer to 250 IP. He’s under control for 4 years, something that shouldn’t be ignored.

 

The Mets may or may be competitive in 2019. But if they can right the ship by 2021 or 2022, will they be better off with Diaz or Robertson?

 

Kind of a hefty price to pay in prospects, though, isn't it?

 

How would this compare to the Sox trade for Kimbrel, would you say?

[notin]

Kind of a hefty price to pay in prospects, though, isn't it?

 

How would this compare to the Sox trade for Kimbrel, would you say?

 

The Sox appear to have given up more for Kimbrel. BA’s Jim Callis ranked Logan Allen as the top pitching prospect in all of MLB two months ago.

 

It is also possible that getting Cano gives the Mets a bankable NY name for marketing. Certainly he is more marketable than Jay Bruce. While the contract is ugly, he may still have a few years left in him...

[a700hitter]

The Mets do have a new GM. The 2 owners are a couple dishonest slimeballs, but the jury is out on the new GM. The Mets are not in as bad shape as people think. They have a rotation of deGrom, Syndegaard, Wheeler and Matz. No team in the NL East comes close to that rotation. Adding Cano gives them a quality bat. They will need to add another quality bat to make up for the absence of Cespedes to compete for a playoff spot.

[notin]

The Mets do have a new GM. The 2 owners are a couple dishonest slimeballs, but the jury is out on the new GM. The Mets are not in as bad shape as people think. They have a rotation of deGrom, Syndegaard, Wheeler and Matz. No team in the NL East comes close to that rotation. Adding Cano gives them a quality bat. They will need to add another quality bat to make up for the absence of Cespedes to compete for a playoff spot.

 

And Diaz fills their closer role, which was being held by Robert Gsellman, who looks more like a guy who doesn’t fit in anywhere so they’re trying him everywhere...

[a700hitter]

And Diaz fills their closer role, which was being held by Robert Gsellman, who looks more like a guy who doesn’t fit in anywhere so they’re trying him everywhere...

Bulloen was a huge need for them. Last year it was atrocious, contributing to the Mets having a losing record in deGrom’s starts.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I was watching Baseball Night in New York, a nightly show that focuses on the two New York teams. A front office executive told one of the Mets beat writers that there was only one team in MLB who would have made that Cano trade. I think that is a fair and true assessment of things and tells us just how awful (and backwards) the Mets front office is.

[Carpin]

I was watching Baseball Night in New York, a nightly show that focuses on the two New York teams. A front office executive told one of the Mets beat writers that there was only one team in MLB who would have made that Cano trade. I think that is a fair and true assessment of things and tells us just how awful (and backwards) the Mets front office is.

 

It looks like the Muts are after JT Realmuto and AJ Pollock, I don't think they have the pieces to get either of them, unless they include some serious ML talent

[Northern Star]

Bulloen was a huge need for them. Last year it was atrocious, contributing to the Mets having a losing record in deGrom’s starts.

 

Here I am for a moment wondering which prospect Bulloen is...

[notin]

It looks like the Muts are after JT Realmuto and AJ Pollock, I don't think they have the pieces to get either of them, unless they include some serious ML talent

 

Pollock is a free agent. They just need a checkbook and a pen.

 

The Marlins appear to be asking for the moon for Realmuto, along with a second moon to be named later...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It looks like the Muts are after JT Realmuto and AJ Pollock, I don't think they have the pieces to get either of them, unless they include some serious ML talent

 

They should have been able to complete the Mariners deal without giving up a stud prospect like Kelenic. In turn, they could have used Kelenic to acquire an upgrade to the offense. The Mets are going to be a disaster--it'll be interesting to watch it all crash and burn. The manager will probably be the first to go. Let's see how long Van Wagenen sticks around until he is fired. Maybe 3 years? The organization will be a complete train wreck by then.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Crappy job by Fangraphs on this trade:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-mets-choose-opposite-paths/

 

I miss Dave Cameron. He would have taken (and defended) a position on the trade.

[Carpin]

They should have been able to complete the Mariners deal without giving up a stud prospect like Kelenic. In turn, they could have used Kelenic to acquire an upgrade to the offense. The Mets are going to be a disaster--it'll be interesting to watch it all crash and burn. The manager will probably be the first to go. Let's see how long Van Wagenen sticks around until he is fired. Maybe 3 years? The organization will be a complete train wreck by then.

 

They are already a train wreck, one of the worst organizations in the ML

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Not looking good for the Mets.

 

NY radio sports talk has finally caught up with reality and is criticizing Van Wagenen for the stupid Cano trade. It amazes me that people couldn't figure this out earlier.

 

And now Van Wagenen is dumping a couple of Mets coaches as if that will solve the problem. LOL.

 

Mr.Steroids Robinson Cano has an OPS+ of 81.

 

Regardless of how Brodie Van Wagenen chose to spin things Thursday, are we supposed to believe that Dave Eiland — the pitching coach for two World Series winners — suddenly became bad at his job? Or that Chuck Hernandez, the guy who answered the phone in the bullpen, is the reason for Edwin Diaz throwing batting practice and Jeurys Familia eroding faster than a sand castle at high tide?

 

It’s not their mess. It’s just their turn. Just as it will be Mickey Callaway’s turn at some point and, much later, Van Wagenen’s. We’ve seen this movie before. Over and over again.

https://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/mets-front-office-dave-eiland-1.32679112

Edited June 21, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs