If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:

[notin]

If I had to guess, it's because the Sox did not expect to need a 2B in the offseason and Betts had not worked out at the position in years.

 

I will note that it was still tried a couple times, mostly at Betts' own instigation, and that while there was some obvious rust, it went OK.

 

An interesting wrinkle on all this is if Betts wants to play 2B. If it's something he cares about, moving him might be part of the key to keeping him.

 

 

 

Andrew Benintendi.

 

In a broader context, I actually would use the JD-JBJ-Beni outfield and pick up someone like Denard Span to come in as a late inning defensive replacement. In my opinion the upgrade at 2B, which is probably the third most important defensive position after catcher and shortstop, would be worth the downgrade defensively to the outfield that would still leave our outfield well above average as a unit.

 

Betts isn’t refusing extensions because he’s playing RF, a position that is enhancing his value what with all the Gold Gloves and that MVP award.

 

So now the solution is to move Benintendi and his weaker throwing arm to RF and move the DH to LF? You’re selling point was supposed to be adding a better RF but really, you want to add a better DH while downgrading both corner outfield spots? This plan looks worse with every iteration. So in this scenario, whose the DH?

 

If the Sox want to upgrade 2b, the easiest thing to do is sign someone like Dozier or Murphy or Le Mahieu or Forsythe or Kinsler or Walker or Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera. Heck Jose Reyes was a 2.0 fWAR player as recently as 2017 and can probably be had dirt cheap. Brad Miller is also dirt cheap and was a 30 hitter as recently as 2017.

 

This is not the off-season to fix what isn’t broken elsewhere. Not with so many 2b options right there for the taking...

[Dojji]

Betts isn’t refusing extensions because he’s playing RF, a position that is enhancing his value what with all the Gold Gloves and that MVP award.

 

Jose Ramirez just qualified as an MVP finalist with a substantially lower offensive total than Betts had. If you don't think Betts would win MVP awards as a 2B I have no idea what to say to you.

 

As for refusing extensions... we haven't come to that bridge yet, so we don't know how we're going to cross it. All I know is he was teasing Cora to try him at 2B at a couple points this season. Again, I freely admit this is pure specilation. But if it's something he really cares about, and you want to keep him on the team, there's a certain logic to giving him the role he wants, wouldn't you say?

 

So now the solution is to move Benintendi and his weaker throwing arm to RF and move the DH to LF? You’re selling point was supposed to be adding a better RF but really, you want to add a better DH while downgrading both corner outfield spots? This plan looks worse with every iteration.

 

I conceded that we would downgrade the outfield. That outfield configuration would still be borderline elite once everyone settled in. In compensation, we'd radically upgrade our infield. You seem quick to point out the disadvantages without acknowledging the advantages... I consider that mildly dishonest.

 

So in this scenario, whose the DH?

 

Probably someone who's better with the bat than our current crop of second basemen. Remember in this scenario it's neither Betts nor JD who's taken out of the lineup, it's Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez.

 

You'd have some options. Just like we have now when someone's resting and JD is in the field. Maybe start by giving Steve Pearce a go. Anyone think Pearce can't outhit either one of Holt or Nunez?

 

If the Sox want to upgrade 2b, the easiest thing to do is sign someone like Dozier or Murphy or Le Mahieu or Forsythe or Kinsler or Walker or Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera. Heck Jose Reyes was a 2.0 fWAR player as recently as 2017 and can probably be had dirt cheap. Brad Miller is also dirt cheap and was a 30 hitter as recently as 2017.

 

This is not the off-season to fix what isn’t broken elsewhere. Not with so many 2b options right there for the taking...

 

The only guy on that list I'd definitely go for is LeMahieu. He's an amazing defender with a bit of stick and I'd absolutely love to have him

 

Believe me, if we picked up a professional 2B, especially a defensive wizard like LeMahieu, Betts could stay in right field forever. However, I'm worried that Pedroia represents the absolute worst of both worlds at the moment, he still technically has a job which means we won't sign a replacement, and then Pedroia will be immediately injured again and unable to do the job himself.

 

That's why I feel like we're restricted to internal options at the moment. It would be extremely gratifying if that were not the case but I strongly believe that the FO is going to care about not embarrassing Pedroia, and that Pedroia is going to try to hang onto his job long after it makes no real sense to keep fighting.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Dojji

[notin]

I doubt the Sox go after anyone to high end like LeMahieu since Pedroia owed $40mill for the next 3 years and he gets every chance to regain his position. As he missed all of 2018 save a couple games, there are reasons to be concerned. But I also think the Sox front office has a better understanding of his health than any of us and will address the position if they feel it needs addressing. After all, there is a chance he actually plays next season.

 

And if he does remain status quo, it probably gets addressed mid season like this year. Starlin Castro, for example, figures to be available.

 

This off-season, the Sox probably address the situation with a minor league contract like they did last year with Brandon Phillips. Phillips again is a candidate for that, along with some aforementioned names like Miller and Reyes...

[notin]

And really, how much is an upgrade from Nunez to Pearce?

 

Pearce’s numbers are somewhat skewed by playing a disproportionate number of games against LHP, which wouldn’t be that case if he was a DH full time. But if you look at a healthy Nunez and Pearce from 2015-2017, they’re very equal hitters

 

In that stretch, Pearce’s OPS+ was 108 and Nunez had a 106. Is that the offensive upgrade worth these radical changes?

 

And the Sox have reportedly attempted to extend Betts multiple times, but Betts has had no interest. And I don’t blame him at all despite wishing he would sign one...

Edited November 19, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

Pearce’s numbers are somewhat skewed by playing a disproportionate number of games against LHP, which wouldn’t be that case if he was a DH full time. But if you look at a healthy Nunez and Pearce from 2015-2017, they’re very equal hitters

 

Actually, he's faced righties more than lefties--not at the rate a FT'er would, but the numbers are not as skewed as one might think.

 

Last year, Sox batters faced righties just under 75% of all their PAs. Pearce faced righties 98 times and lefties 67 times with the Sox. That's 59.4%. That's only about 15% less than the norm. He also had a decent .825 OPS vs righties with us.

 

In 2017, Pearce actually hit righties better (.767 to .730) and faced RHPs 72% of the time.

 

In 2016, he hit lefties way better (1.028), but he was pretty good vs RHPs (.795), too. He faced righties 69% of his PAs.

 

In 2015, he hit RHPs better (.765 to .623), but he only faced RHPs 62% of the time.

 

2015-2018

.783 vs RHPs in 788 PAs (Moreland is at .782 in 1596)

.826 vs LHPs in 438 PAs

 

In 4 years, he faced RHPs 64% of the time, which is not all that far away from a FT player.

 

The .043 differential is not as much as I expected, and sine he has hit RHPs about the same as Moreland, maybe playing him vs many RHPs makes sense, either at 1B or DH, when JD is resting or in the OF.

 

Trading Moreland and freeing up his contract to sign another RP'er might make some sense. Let JD learn to play some 1B, and we have Holt, Swihart and maybe Chavis as 1B depth.

[kenmeister]

And the Sox have reportedly attempted to extend Betts multiple times, but Betts has had no interest.

 

Yeah, that's why I'm extremely pessimistic that we keep Betts, or Bogaerts, or Sale, or Benitendi for the long run. I'm just going to enjoy next year.

[notin]

Actually, he's faced righties more than lefties--not at the rate a FT'er would, but the numbers are not as skewed as one might think.

 

So it’s slightly disproportionate. But even then, he is barely better than Nunez when Nunez is healthy.

 

So the entire plan of shifting Betts would mean downgrading 2 positions defensively in order to play one player who represents a 2% increase offensively.

 

Not worth it IMO...

[moonslav59]

So it’s slightly disproportionate. But even then, he is barely better than Nunez when Nunez is healthy.

 

So the entire plan of shifting Betts would mean downgrading 2 positions defensively in order to play one player who represents a 2% increase offensively.

 

Not worth it IMO...

 

I'm dead set against moving Betts.

 

RF is very important in Boston. We are fine at 2B, for now.

 

My point on Pearce vs RHPs is more about Moreland than anything else.

[sk7326]

Yeah, that's why I'm extremely pessimistic that we keep Betts, or Bogaerts, or Sale, or Benitendi for the long run. I'm just going to enjoy next year.

 

Betts wants to embrace his free agency - as all players should. But there is time to change his mind. It's not like the Sox won't be in the running.

[notin]

I'm dead set against moving Betts.

 

RF is very important in Boston. We are fine at 2B, for now.

 

My point on Pearce vs RHPs is more about Moreland than anything else.

 

I’m not as anti-Moreland as you. But you’re more pro-Marco Hernandez than me, so it evens out...

[Spudboy]

It's not really a minor concern when you're talking about a 26 year old who is potentially one of the all time greats.

 

Plainly, moving Betts to 2nd is f***ing stupid.

 

There should be no debate on this idea.

[kenmeister]

Betts wants to embrace his free agency - as all players should. But there is time to change his mind. It's not like the Sox won't be in the running.

 

They'll be in the running, but even Cano was swooped up by Seattle when he'd been a long-time Yankee.

[sk7326]

They'll be in the running, but even Cano was swooped up by Seattle when he'd been a long-time Yankee.

 

that was Seattle sweeping in with a crazy deal.

 

Betts will get better offers in general - he is 3 years younger entering FA. Indeed my guess is that Betts will end up with a long deal with an opt out that can get him back into FA around age 30 or so. (which is sort of the deals I expect Machado and Harper to sign)

[cp176]

Plainly, moving Betts to 2nd is f***ing stupid.

 

There should be no debate on this idea.

 

Now we are talking!

[S5Dewey]

Plainly, moving Betts to 2nd is f***ing stupid.

 

There should be no debate on this idea.

 

There's one thing you have to say for Spud. He has no trouble expressing himself.

[Dojji]

It's not really a minor concern when you're talking about a 26 year old who is potentially one of the all time greats.

 

Yes it is. Do you really think he's immune to injury in right field?

 

At best, the injury risk concern is an excuse, at worst it's pure sophistry. He could get hurt at second base, he could get hurt in right field, he could slip in the shower tomorrow and never play another inning.

 

And again, if playing the infield is such an obvious physical hazard why do so many teams put their best offensive players at first base which is second only to catcher for hazards and cheap shot opportunities?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes it is. Do you really think he's immune to injury in right field?

 

At best, the injury risk concern is an excuse, at worst it's pure sophistry. He could get hurt at second base, he could get hurt in right field, he could slip in the shower tomorrow and never play another inning.

 

And again, if playing the infield is such an obvious physical hazard why do so many teams put their best offensive players at first base which is second only to catcher for hazards and cheap shot opportunities?

 

It may have something to do with having such a fresh example in Pedroia.

[S5Dewey]

Yes it is. Do you really think he's immune to injury in right field?

 

At best, the injury risk concern is an excuse, at worst it's pure sophistry. He could get hurt at second base, he could get hurt in right field, he could slip in the shower tomorrow and never play another inning.

 

And again, if playing the infield is such an obvious physical hazard why do so many teams put their best offensive players at first base which is second only to catcher for hazards and cheap shot opportunities?

 

Because 1) they usually have limited defensive skills but they can hit the cover off the ball and 2) guys who have limited defensive skills but can hit the cover off the ball are more replaceable than 'up the middle' defensive players.

[S5Dewey]

Yes it is. Do you really think he's immune to injury in right field?

 

At best, the injury risk concern is an excuse, at worst it's pure sophistry. He could get hurt at second base, he could get hurt in right field, he could slip in the shower tomorrow and never play another inning.

I've always found this to be a bogus argument regardless of the situation.

 

Yes, he could get hurt in any of the situations you say. He also could get hurt strolling down the center of I-495 against the traffic, taking a shot at professional football or playing Russian Roulette, but at some point you have to ask yourself where the probability of being hurt is the least and play him there.

[sk7326]

Yes it is. Do you really think he's immune to injury in right field?

 

At best, the injury risk concern is an excuse, at worst it's pure sophistry. He could get hurt at second base, he could get hurt in right field, he could slip in the shower tomorrow and never play another inning.

 

And again, if playing the infield is such an obvious physical hazard why do so many teams put their best offensive players at first base which is second only to catcher for hazards and cheap shot opportunities?

 

Yeah - injury concern is not really the issue as much as relative substitutability. I think Betts + rando 2B > Betts + rando RF

[notin]

 

And again, if playing the infield is such an obvious physical hazard why do so many teams put their best offensive players at first base which is second only to catcher for hazards and cheap shot opportunities?

 

Because it is the easiest defensive position to play. They get moved there to limit the damage they do defensively while keeping their bats in the lineup.

 

The majority of the chances a first baseman has are throws hat were intended for him to catch. No other position has that advantage, except maybe catcher. But catcher is a whole completely different animal...

[sk7326]

Yes it is. Do you really think he's immune to injury in right field?

 

At best, the injury risk concern is an excuse, at worst it's pure sophistry. He could get hurt at second base, he could get hurt in right field, he could slip in the shower tomorrow and never play another inning.

 

And again, if playing the infield is such an obvious physical hazard why do so many teams put their best offensive players at first base which is second only to catcher for hazards and cheap shot opportunities?

 

middle of the diamond has more hazardous plays than 1B. Any "risk" from 1B comes from just how many putout opportunities there are.

[notin]

middle of the diamond has more hazardous plays than 1B. Any "risk" from 1B comes from just how many putout opportunities there are.

 

It's easy to name several infielders who were injured in the course of a double play. Not so easy to name a few first baseman who were injured in collisions...

[moonslav59]

I’m not as anti-Moreland as you. But you’re more pro-Marco Hernandez than me, so it evens out...

 

Marco has been a pipe dream for me. I'm not sure why I have clung onto any hope with him.

 

Moreland is a plus defender and does okay vs RHPs. He's not a net negative with his salary, but I'm looking at our tight budget and where we might be able to free up some cash and where we have depth that may not be as big of a drop off as other positions.

 

I'm worried that Pearce cannot play FT and give us over 600 PAs. His recent 4 year OPS vs RHPs is equal to Morekand's, so I dee a glimmer of hope. Let JD learn some 1B, use Swihart, Holt and maybe Chavis as depth, if needed.

 

If DD has an unrestricted budget this year, I'm all for keeping Moreland.

[notin]

Marco has been a pipe dream for me. I'm not sure why I have clung onto any hope with him.

 

 

 

 

Me either. He hits like a pitcher and is a utility infielder who can't play short. Lin is a much better alternative...

[moonslav59]

Me either. He hits like a pitcher and is a utility infielder who can't play short. Lin is a much better alternative...

 

I have Lin ahead of Hernandez, but If Marco hits like a pitcher, then Lin hits like a pitcher batting off-handed.

 

Minors

.716 Marco (.752 AAA)

.657 Lin (.742 AAA)

 

BTW, what's up with Lin's splits in the tiny sample size of his ML career?

 

.797 vs RHPs (115 PAs)

.401 vs LHPs (just 24 PAs)

 

If the guy can hit just .750 vs RHPs consistently, he could start 100 games for us.

[oldtimer]

Marco has been a pipe dream for me. I'm not sure why I have clung onto any hope with him.

 

Moreland is a plus defender and does okay vs RHPs. He's not a net negative with his salary, but I'm looking at our tight budget and where we might be able to free up some cash and where we have depth that may not be as big of a drop off as other positions.

 

I'm worried that Pearce cannot play FT and give us over 600 PAs. His recent 4 year OPS vs RHPs is equal to Morekand's, so I dee a glimmer of hope. Let JD learn some 1B, use Swihart, Holt and maybe Chavis as depth, if needed.

 

If DD has an unrestricted budget this year, I'm all for keeping Moreland.

 

Marco is coming off an injury with a full year away from live baseball. He never was a first string player although he showed a glimmer of ability. I would think his ship may have sailed and that we should look elsewhere for 2nd base backup. Tough on the kid, but realistically we have a better solution in the organization in Lin.

[moonslav59]

Marco is coming off an injury with a full year away from live baseball. He never was a first string player although he showed a glimmer of ability. I would think his ship may have sailed and that we should look elsewhere for 2nd base backup. Tough on the kid, but realistically we have a better solution in the organization in Lin.

 

I'd put Quiroz ahead of him, too.

 

I'm not convinced Chavis or Swihart can play 2B, but both might have a better chance than Marco at this point.

 

[Larry Cook]

I'd put Quiroz ahead of him, too.

 

I'm not convinced Chavis or Swihart can play 2B, but both might have a better chance than Marco at this point.

 

 

If Quiroz had hit better in the afl, then I would think he could be a wild card for second base, but he really looked overmatched and puny.

 

I would like to see chavis start the year at Pawtucket as a second baseman.

 

Hernandez has been gone so long, that he needs a year at Pawtucket to get back into things.

 

If kinsler goes unsigned this offseason, we should make him a no roster invitee. There is no way Pedroia does not break down by March 30th. Kinsler could be plan b.

[moonslav59]

If Quiroz had hit better in the afl, then I would think he could be a wild card for second base, but he really looked overmatched and puny.

 

I would like to see chavis start the year at Pawtucket as a second baseman.

 

Hernandez has been gone so long, that he needs a year at Pawtucket to get back into things.

 

If kinsler goes unsigned this offseason, we should make him a no roster invitee. There is no way Pedroia does not break down by March 30th. Kinsler could be plan b.

 

Even if Quirox, Marco & Pedey never amount to squat, I'm happy with Holt, Nunez & Lin with maybe Chavis or Swihart as emergency depth.

 

We will not address the 2B issue this winter. We have other priorities.