I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second

[sk7326]

I think Henry Owens was the biggest bust of the list. He clearly couldn’t play at the mlb level and I don’t know why he was so highly regarded in the first place. Pena, Gabbard, Johnson, all had some initial impressive play.

 

Owens was a disappointment because he had major league stuff. He just couldn't throw strikes.

[moonslav59]

Owens was a disappointment because he had major league stuff. He just couldn't throw strikes.

 

Yes, and he showed flashes of greatness in the minors. It looked like he had his BB/9 going in the right direction by 2014 in AA & AAA, but then frazzled.

 

26 starts

2.94 ERA

9.6 K/9

3.3 BB/9

1.16 WHIP

 

He never came close to those numbers again.

 

BTW, Johnson and Gabbard had some decent numbers, at time....

 

Johnson

2014

25 starts in A+ and AA

2.63 ERA

0.97 WHIP

8.3 K/9

2.4 BB/9

 

2015

18 starts in AAA

2.53 ERA

1.10 WHIP

8.4 K/9

3.0 BB/9

 

Gabbard's only good season in the minors was his 13 starts in AA in 2006

2.57 ERA

1.03 WHIP

 

Career:

AAA 4.51 and 1.52

AA 5.11 and 1.50

 

 

[sk7326]

Right - Gabbard and Johnson aren't great stuff guys. But Johnson (at least) knows how to pitch - and has reasonably good command. That limits the upside to the 4/5 variety - but that's fine. He can succeed in the bigs as a command guy - as long as you are not expecting more.

 

Owens had a wipeout change and a big league curveball. But without command or control, big league hitters can simply not swing at the potentially elite junk and sit on a fringe-average fastball.

[jacksonianmarch]

Owens also had a power fastball for a bit in the minors before his velocity shriveled up. I remember reading about him in the BA top 100 topping out at 97. When he made it to the majors, he was topping out at 90-91. Big difference. Owens velocity dropmade him afraid to throw his fastball for strikes and that did him in

[kenmeister]

I happen to be higher on Velazquez than Johnson for taking the fifth spot in the rotation. Why does Johnson get all the attention?

[sk7326]

Owens also had a power fastball for a bit in the minors before his velocity shriveled up. I remember reading about him in the BA top 100 topping out at 97. When he made it to the majors, he was topping out at 90-91. Big difference. Owens velocity dropmade him afraid to throw his fastball for strikes and that did him in

 

90-92 or whatever on the fastball is fine if you can locate it with elite secondary stuff and a good approach. Owens clearly was faulty in the latter. I was consistently into not giving up on him because his changeup etc got swings and misses from big leaguers. But you throw your fastball more than anything else, and if you can't locate that you're dead.

 

I mean - for an extreme counterexample - Koji Uehara was able to dominate in relief with an 89-91 fastball. Elite secondary stuff and control gets you a long way.

Edited November 23, 2018 by sk7326

[Station 13]

I happen to be higher on Velazquez than Johnson for taking the fifth spot in the rotation. Why does Johnson get all the attention?

 

Look at Valaquez strikeout, hits, walks allow. See the high WHIP. It's due to regress.

[moonslav59]

WHIP

 

Velazquez

1.340 Mexican League (1114 IP)

0.990 Minor Leagues (103 IP)

1.377 MLB (110 IP)

 

Johnson

1.200 A+ (37 IP)

1.238 AAA (263 IP)

1.446 MLB (131 IP)

 

K/9 and BB/9

Velazquez

6.8 & 3.1 Mexican

7.0 & 2.1 AAA

5.9 & 2.7 MLB

 

Johnson

10.1 & 2.9 A+

7.3 & 3.3 AAA

7.6 & 3.4 MLB

Edited November 24, 2018 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Does he say stuff like this every year?

 

He does, but it is actually a very good thing when Jacko posts things like this. He has the uncanny knack of reverse mojo, or whatever you want to call it. I believe he is single handedly responsible for the Red Sox World Series Championship this past season.

[Kimmi]

I'm with Dojii. I love the home-grown or at least rookie talent!

 

Thoughts on Juan Pena gentlemen?

 

I much prefer home grown talent over free agents or trades.

 

Home grown > Trades > Free agents

[notin]

He does, but it is actually a very good thing when Jacko posts things like this. He has the uncanny knack of reverse mojo, or whatever you want to call it. I believe he is single handedly responsible for the Red Sox World Series Championship this past season.

 

 

So he’s what Graham Nash called “King Midas in Reverse”...

[dgalehouse]

He does, but it is actually a very good thing when Jacko posts things like this. He has the uncanny knack of reverse mojo, or whatever you want to call it. I believe he is single handedly responsible for the Red Sox World Series Championship this past season.

 

I would sooner believe in clutch and momentum than in mojo , much less reverse mojo .

[dgalehouse]

So he’s what Graham Nash called “King Midas in Reverse”...

 

My uncle Tony had the Midas touch. Everything he touched turned into a muffler.

[notin]

My uncle Tony had the Midas touch. Everything he touched turned into a muffler.

 

Well that makes for a s***** lyric...

[Larry Cook]

I much prefer home grown talent over free agents or trades.

 

Home grown > Trades > Free agents

 

Amen brother!

 

I agree 100 percent.

 

One caveat I would add is that if we are resorting to a trade, we should not trade for sore armed relievers that do nothing for us.

 

Ps: not sure there are anymore sore armed relievers to trade for, as desperate Dave has collected just about all of them,

[dgalehouse]

Amen brother!

 

I agree 100 percent.

 

One caveat I would add is that if we are resorting to a trade, we should not trade for sore armed relievers that do nothing for us.

 

Ps: not sure there are anymore sore armed relievers to trade for, as desperate Dave has collected just about all of them,

 

Larry , help is available.

[S5Dewey]

Amen brother!

 

I agree 100 percent.

 

One caveat I would add is that if we are resorting to a trade, we should not trade for sore armed relievers that do nothing for us.

 

Ps: not sure there are anymore sore armed relievers to trade for, as desperate Dave has collected just about all of them,

 

Again, Gold Bricks.

[Bellhorn04]

Amen brother!

 

I agree 100 percent.

 

One caveat I would add is that if we are resorting to a trade, we should not trade for sore armed relievers that do nothing for us.

 

Ps: not sure there are anymore sore armed relievers to trade for, as desperate Dave has collected just about all of them,

 

You do have issues.

[Kimmi]

I would sooner believe in clutch and momentum than in mojo , much less reverse mojo .

 

Mojo is very real! Clutch and momentum, not so much.

[Kimmi]

You do have issues.

 

Mostly that he keeps calling me his brother. LOL

[moonslav59]

Mostly that he keeps calling me his brother. LOL

 

At least it's not a daddy issue.

[Dojji]

Mojo is very real! Clutch and momentum, not so much.

 

Mojo is real because it can translate into confidence, or a lack thereof.

 

POersonally I feel that clutch and momentum also spring from the same source -- confidence, or the lack thereof. Self confidence is similar to the placebo effect, when you honestly believe you can do a thing you suddenly find to everyone's surprise, including your own, that you actually can. Similarly if you come to actually believe something is beyond your ability it usually becomes so, whether it was originally impossible for you or not.

 

When Price was able to restore his confidence in pitching in the postseason he went from "unclutch" to coming up huge. I do not feel this is a coincidence. I also think that Kimbrel's self confidence allowed him to fight through several moments in the recent postseason where his stuff was not working for him.

[Kimmi]

Mojo is real because it can translate into confidence, or a lack thereof.

 

POersonally I feel that clutch and momentum also spring from the same source -- confidence, or the lack thereof. Self confidence is similar to the placebo effect, when you honestly believe you can do a thing you suddenly find to everyone's surprise, including your own, that you actually can. Similarly if you come to actually believe something is beyond your ability it usually becomes so, whether it was originally impossible for you or not.

 

When Price was able to restore his confidence in pitching in the postseason he went from "unclutch" to coming up huge. I do not feel this is a coincidence. I also think that Kimbrel's self confidence allowed him to fight through several moments in the recent postseason where his stuff was not working for him.

 

I mostly agree with this post in terms of the confidence factor. FTR, I never agreed with the idea that Price was 'unclutch' in the postseason.

 

Where I disagree with you is in the following:

 

1. Momentum does not exist in terms of being a predictor.

 

2. Clutch does not exist in terms of being able to raise one's game to an otherworldly level.

[kenmeister]

WHIP

 

Velazquez

1.340 Mexican League (1114 IP)

0.990 Minor Leagues (103 IP)

1.377 MLB (110 IP)

 

Johnson

1.200 A+ (37 IP)

1.238 AAA (263 IP)

1.446 MLB (131 IP)

 

K/9 and BB/9

Velazquez

6.8 & 3.1 Mexican

7.0 & 2.1 AAA

5.9 & 2.7 MLB

 

Johnson

10.1 & 2.9 A+

7.3 & 3.3 AAA

7.6 & 3.4 MLB

 

So if I’m reading this correctly the numbers agree with me that Velazquez could be better than Johnson.

[S5Dewey]

I mostly agree with this post in terms of the confidence factor. FTR, I never agreed with the idea that Price was 'unclutch' in the postseason.

 

Where I disagree with you is in the following:

 

1. Momentum does not exist in terms of being a predictor.

 

2. Clutch does not exist in terms of being able to raise one's game to an otherworldly level.

 

Annnnd..... Here we go again!

[Bellhorn04]

Annnnd..... Here we go again!

 

We actually have a pretty nice case study now in a guy apparently going from un-clutch to clutch. Fellow named Price. In his case I always thought he had a 'monkey on his back' that was a serious mental burden. Fortunately he was able to slay that monkey.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm open to trading Johnson, but I would want a pretty good prospect in return.

 

Sale

Price

Porcello

Eavoldi (resign)

Rodriguez

 

I like Johnson, but there is no room for him and he belongs in a starting rotation. I would also like to see the Red Sox trade Swihart for a prospect. By trading Swihart and Johnson, the Red Sox would lose some of their depth, but by acquiring prospects, they would quickly replenish that depth.

[Dojji]

I mostly agree with this post in terms of the confidence factor. FTR, I never agreed with the idea that Price was 'unclutch' in the postseason.

 

Where I disagree with you is in the following:

 

1. Momentum does not exist in terms of being a predictor.

 

2. Clutch does not exist in terms of being able to raise one's game to an otherworldly level.

 

I don't need to argue this. The real world has proven you wrong unless you "No True Scotsman" your way around several rather obvious moments in history.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm open to trading Johnson, but I would want a pretty good prospect in return.

 

Sale

Price

Porcello

Eavoldi (resign)

Rodriguez

 

I like Johnson, but there is no room for him and he belongs in a starting rotation.

 

Why not have him in the pen to start the season? Good long reliever, mopup guy who can handle multi-inning stints.

 

Then, when one of the rotation goes down, as they inevitably will, Johnson can start.

 

His flexibility is a big part of his potential value.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't need to argue this. The real world has proven you wrong unless you "No True Scotsman" your way around several rather obvious moments in history.

 

Proof? Proof?

 

That's the thing. You can make arguments for clutch, and I have done so (Ortiz and Schilling).

 

But there is no proof. Zero.