A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Just to further my point aboit Eovaldi

 

Baseball Reference protections

 

Nathan Eovaldi, 113 IP, 4.06 ERA, 103 strikeouts, 1.221 WHIP

 

Brian Johnson: 91 IP, 4.15 ERA, 83 strikeouts, 1.385 WHIP

 

Eovaldi is a little better than Johnson by their projections but they're in the same universe. He's really kind of inherently replaceable as a SP. With his overpowering stuff a conversion to relief would transform Eovaldi from a mediocre and kind of disappointing starter to a terror in late innings. It's not exactly a crazy notion.

 

But if MLBTR projections are close, what is the advantage of signing Eovaldi to close over Kimbrel?

[S5Dewey]

ok super job boys - lets have a big group s*** on for a guy that helped us win a World Series. It really is a special group we got here! lol

 

Remember, s***ing on Price was started by a huge Yankees troll. It's unfortunate that one of our own allowed himself to get sucked up into it.

[BillyWilliams]

Remember, s***ing on Price was started by a huge Yankees troll. It's unfortunate that one of our own allowed himself to get sucked up into it.

 

I didn't s*** on anyone, dewdrop.

 

Merely pointed out that it's sad that a guy making that much was even in position to win that award. One would hope that when you sign a guy to that kind of contract that he doesn't perform so poorly one season to be in the conversation for the award the following season.

[Dojji]

Humans are human no matter how well they're paid.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox don’t sign Eovaldi I predict they bring back Kimbrel...

 

Then, by all means, sign Eovaldi!

[moonslav59]

I see stuff in the media about how the Sox should be interested in signing Robertson, but shouldn’t we be interested in signing Britton instead? He is a lefty and he has closing experience.

 

Our RHPs do very well vs lefties. I'm not sure it matters much.

[moonslav59]

Reportedly multiple teams that are interested in Eovaldi want him as a closer. He has said he’s open to the idea but prefers to start, which is probably exactly what his agent told him to say.

 

Frankly any team that wants him as a closer is being stupid. His predicted contracts all have him making starter money which is more than any of the closers already on the market, and there are lots of them. If a team is willing to pay Eovaldi $15mill to close, for just a bit more you can probably get Kimbrel. And for a lot less, you can get Robertson. Or Familia or Miller or Allen or Ramos or any of the other closers already available...

 

It would be a gamble, but making Eovaldi a closer might lessen the chances of injury that you have been very vocal about.

 

I'd rather have Eovaldi as a closer than Kimbrel, and as you pointed out, he'd cost less.

 

All in all, I'd prefer Eovaldi as a starter and Familia, Ottavino or Allen as our closer.

[notin]

It would be a gamble, but making Eovaldi a closer might lessen the chances of injury that you have been very vocal about.

 

I'd rather have Eovaldi as a closer than Kimbrel, and as you pointed out, he'd cost less.

 

All in all, I'd prefer Eovaldi as a starter and Familia, Ottavino or Allen as our closer.

 

Yes having Eovaldi close should in theory reduce his chances of injury. But if MLBTR projections are correct, the difference between him and Kimbrel is only $2.5mill per season. Is using Eovaldi as a closer instead of Kimbrel,inarguably among the best in the game in that role right now, worth saving $2.5mill?

 

Of course, the real money (and years) both are paid is still undetermined. But at what point is it the better move to just bring back Kimbrel over trying Eovaldi?

[Dojji]

Then, by all means, sign Eovaldi!

 

I really don't understand your disdain for Kimbrel at all.

[notin]

ok super job boys - lets have a big group s*** on for a guy that helped us win a World Series. It really is a special group we got here! lol

 

I hope you might see the humor in a player injuring himself allegedly playing a video game and then parlaying that into a Comeback Player of the Year award...

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't s*** on anyone, dewdrop.

 

Merely pointed out that it's sad that a guy making that much was even in position to win that award. One would hope that when you sign a guy to that kind of contract that he doesn't perform so poorly one season to be in the conversation for the award the following season.

 

The award is kind of dumb, but so is your comment. Price didn't pitch bad in 2017, he only pitched 74 innings because he was injured. That happens to pitchers all the time, no matter how much they're paid.

[dgalehouse]

Maybe TalkSox should institute a comeback poster of the year award.

[moonslav59]

I really don't understand your disdain for Kimbrel at all.

 

I'd love to have Kimbrel back, and I've made that point known, but he will cost to much and get too many years.

 

It's true I'm not big on spending large for any closer, so it's nothing personal against Kimbrel.

 

Would you rather have Kimbrel at $90M/5 or Eovaldi at $60M/4?

 

[moonslav59]

Yes having Eovaldi close should in theory reduce his chances of injury. But if MLBTR projections are correct, the difference between him and Kimbrel is only $2.5mill per season. Is using Eovaldi as a closer instead of Kimbrel,inarguably among the best in the game in that role right now, worth saving $2.5mill?

 

Of course, the real money (and years) both are paid is still undetermined. But at what point is it the better move to just bring back Kimbrel over trying Eovaldi?

 

I'm worried about Kimbrel's impending decline that may have already started. He will also get more years and more money, and I'm of the mind we will be resetting the luxury tax in a couple years, so anyone signed beyond 2 years, the amount of money is crucial to keeping our best players.

 

Again, I realize I might be wrong about when and if we ever reset the tax, but that's my thinking.

[notin]

Maybe TalkSox should institute a comeback poster of the year award.

 

 

Or a “Don’t Come Back” Poster of the Year Award...

[moonslav59]

Or a “Don’t Come Back” Poster of the Year Award...

 

Careful, you might win that one!

 

[Larry Cook]

I'm worried about Kimbrel's impending decline that may have already started. He will also get more years and more money, and I'm of the mind we will be resetting the luxury tax in a couple years, so anyone signed beyond 2 years, the amount of money is crucial to keeping our best players.

 

Again, I realize I might be wrong about when and if we ever reset the tax, but that's my thinking.

 

Is the decline due to his rising walk rate? Then the question becomes, is the rising walk rate an aberration?

His fastball has not lost much if any gas, so what else makes you think his decline is coming???

[SoxnCycles]

ok super job boys - lets have a big group s*** on for a guy that helped us win a World Series. It really is a special group we got here! lol

 

It was a joke. Lighten up, Francis.

[moonslav59]

Is the decline due to his rising walk rate? Then the question becomes, is the rising walk rate an aberration?

His fastball has not lost much if any gas, so what else makes you think his decline is coming???

 

Age.

 

Decline in MPH on fastball.

 

Decline in control.

 

Isn't it possible 2017 was more of an outlier than 2016 and 2018? Afterall, 2 out of the last 3 years is a larger sample size than 1 out of 3.

 

BB/9

5.1- 2016

1.8- 2017

4.5- 2018

 

He has a BABip of .216 this year. Imagine if it was at his career .260 mark! Even with that low average, his WHIP still rose from 0.68 to 0.99. Don't get me wrong, 0.99 is fantastic, and that's one reason I'd like to have him back, but the cost will be too high- both in terms of money and years.

 

Also, GB%

28.2- 2018

40.3- career

 

FIP-

75 - 2018

50- career

 

Pitch Velocity Charts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=6655&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

 

 

[cp176]

It was a joke. Lighten up, Francis.

 

Hey I just don't understand your quick witted sense of humor - Got nothing else to say. You got me again I guess.

[cp176]

Careful, you might win that one!

 

 

 

Hey take a vote amongst your friends here Moon and let me know if it is me. I'd gladly move on - I'm actually having some fun on some political forums being somewhat conservative by nature.

[cp176]

Humans are human no matter how well they're paid.

 

ain't that the truth

[moonslav59]

Hey take a vote amongst your friends here Moon and let me know if it is me. I'd gladly move on - I'm actually having some fun on some political forums being somewhat conservative by nature.

 

We have had our disagreements, but you are one of my favorite posters. (So is notin, and you guys are polar opposites!)

[notin]

We have had our disagreements, but you are one of my favorite posters (So is notin, and you guys are polar opposites!)

 

Can I be the smart one?

 

J/k cp. But I had to beat you to the obvious punchline:)

[notin]

Careful, you might win that one!

 

 

 

Oh I’m sure my nomination will get seconded. And thirded. And fourthed. And so on and so on....

[cp176]

Can I be the smart one?

 

J/k cp. But I had to beat you to the obvious punchline:)

 

Don't you kid with me notin. You already know that you are the smart one.

[cp176]

We have had our disagreements, but you are one of my favorite posters. (So is notin, and you guys are polar opposites!)

 

 

I actually truly appreciate that comment - ty.

 

In actuality, I'm not sure that notion and I see things all that differently. We just have different ways of saying things!

[cp176]

I brought up the Price thing to begin with, just because no one else mentioned it. I don't care whether people like the guy or not, he proved quite a bit to all of the nasty doubters that have been out there.

I'm also somewhat surprised that no one has mentioned the article I read the other day complimenting the role that all analytics have played with respect to this current team's development. It was an excellent article.

[kenmeister]

Just to further my point aboit Eovaldi

 

Baseball Reference protections

 

Nathan Eovaldi, 113 IP, 4.06 ERA, 103 strikeouts, 1.221 WHIP

 

Brian Johnson: 91 IP, 4.15 ERA, 83 strikeouts, 1.385 WHIP

 

Eovaldi is a little better than Johnson by their projections but they're in the same universe. He's really kind of inherently replaceable as a SP. With his overpowering stuff a conversion to relief would transform Eovaldi from a mediocre and kind of disappointing starter to a terror in late innings. It's not exactly a crazy notion.

 

I think we need them both. I fully expect long stints on the DL from Sale, E-Rod, Wright, and perhaps a shorter one from Price, and Eovaldi as well if he comes back. Porcello, he's my rock. But I think this team needs all 8 of its starters (Sale, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Eovaldi yup that's 8).

[notin]

I actually truly appreciate that comment - ty.

 

In actuality, I'm not sure that notion and I see things all that differently. We just have different ways of saying things!

 

Oh I think we see a lot of things differently. For example, you saw Bryce Brentz as young and a major leaguer;)