Do the Yanks create a cliff this off-season

[jacksonianmarch]

With so much talk about the sox impending cliff, one would need to look at the Yankees and say something similar albeit further into the future. With the unprecedented ascensions of Sanchez, Judge, Andujar, Torres, Severino, and to some extent Montgomery, the Yanks have shown how youth can be very useful in building a roster. Especially in building a roster around a mistake like Ellsbury. This surprise ascension allowed us to go out and get Stanton, who had 10 years left on his contract. And while Stanton has been good in 2018, he has been far from the elite level player he was billed as. Most guys struggle vs their averages in their first yr in NY, so he is likely headed for some improvement next season, but I digress. With so many big names out there and the big years being speculated, what impact would a massive contract have on the Yankees as they are currently constituted and as it pertains to their lux tax implications. As it currently stands, the Yankees project to be about $70 mil below the cap when considering their losses as well as the arb raises coming. While they are looking at losing Robertson, Happ, Sabathia and Gardner, they have some internal options to replace those guys, although they will most certainly have to dabble in the offseason free agent pool to stay around a 100 win team. Let's look at the impending losses and where a cliff might begin...

 

After 2018

Sabathia, Happ, Lynn, Gardner, Robertson

Notable arb cases- Gregorius (final), Hicks (final), Betances (final), Bird (1st time eligible, non-tender candidate), Romine (final), Gray (final)

 

With the most productive pieces in pre-arb and the other guys not in the arb process stable in terms of cost, the Yankees will be adding. With Happ, Lynn, and CC falling out of the rotation and Gray seemingly losing his lunch on the Yankee mound, we will have some issues at the back end of the rotation. We will likely welcome one minor league starter in 2019 be it Swanson, King or Sheffield. With Sevy and Tanaka locked in at 1-2, we will need 2 other pitchers in the rotation. Gray might be one of them, but I doubt it. I would assume we will move Gray and bring in 2 pitchers. Either way, the end of 2018 will bring about the next wave of the build.

 

After 2019

Chapman (opt out), Gregorius, Romine, Betances, Gray, Hicks

Notable arb cases- Sevy (2nd), Judge (1st), Sanchez (1st), Green (1st), Montgomery (1st)

 

With a lot of damage done last off-season, the Yanks will likely focus on bringing back some of the assets moving away. The Yanks have already reached out to Didi to re-sign him. I would assume they make a run at Hicks as well. They likely let Betances and Gray walk while bringing back Romine. Chap can opt out, but if his knee issue flares up between now and his opt out, he may keep the last two years of his contract. If Chap does opt out, the Yankees may bring back Betances or look to use some of their minor league talent to fill in. Thankfully, Montgomery should be fully healthy and ready to resume his career in the middle of our rotation

 

After 2020

Tanaka, Ellsbury, Stanton (opt out)

Notable arb cases- Sevy (third), Judge (2nd), Sanchez (2nd), Green (2nd), Andujar (1st), Holder (1st), Torres (1st), Montgomery (2nd)

 

With the arb cases piling up, getting out from Ellsbury's contract is a god send. We will likely see another big foray into the free agent market as Tanaka comes up on free agency. This is probably the penultimate push into the FA market before we really start to look at extending home grown core talent like Sevy and Judge

 

After 2021

Chapman (if not opted out)

Notable arb cases- Sevy (fourth), Judge (3rd), Sanchez (3rd), Green (3rd), Andujar (2nd), Holder (2nd), Torres (2nd), Montgomery (3rd)

 

This is the final year before the major free agents start to pile up. If Chap hadn't already bowed out, his contract ends here. This means our team likely eats his contract to pay the arb eligible guys. We likely make a final foray into free agency on a shorter term deal to get ready for the hell that is to come

 

After 2022

Severino, Judge, Sanchez, Green, Montgomery

Notable arb cases- Andujar (3rd), Holder (3rd), Torres (3rd)

 

This is where I can see a cliff upcoming. If we don't draft and develop well in the interim and go bonkers after 2018, then we will have trouble maintaining beyond 2022. It will be hard to keep the band together if we already have more than just Stanton on the roster. Sevy, assuming good health and shaking the recent poor run, is shaping up to be a huge pitcher long term. Judge will get a monster deal. If Sanchez hits again, so will he. Andujar and Torres will cost a boatload in arb as well.

 

After 2023

Andujar, Holder

 

After 2024

Torres

 

 

That's the breakdown going forward. Good drafting and development got us to where we are now. If it stops abruptly, we will fall apart after 2022. If it doesn't, maybe it continues

Edited September 17, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

I don't see a drastic point, where you lose a lot of key players in 1 year, and there's not enough money to keep everyone of fill their shoes.

 

Your farm is also much stronger than ours, so some holes will be filled from within.

 

Too many young stars far away from free agency to worry about it.

[Carpin]

Good analysis, but you are showing almost the worst case scenario, some of the young guys will flame out and some other not in the current picture will blossom.

 

There's a good class of pitching (from the minors) coming at the end of 2019 and 2020, I assume at least a couple will become good ML players.

[BillyWilliams]

Way too early, too many things can change between now and then .........

[jacksonianmarch]

The question is more if we are going to create one. If we go out and grab Harper and then deal off kids for Bumgarner, we could, especially if we extend any pitching acquisition. I agree, it’s premature, but adding long term costs does accelerate the timeline for maximum impact but also shortens the window

[Bellhorn04]

If the Yankees go wild with big FA deals this offseason it would represent kind of a 180 degree turn from the direction Cashman appears to have been moving in the last few years, trying NOT to be the way the team was in his early days as GM. And presumably he has had the support of Hal in that regard.

 

I'll be surprised if they make that 180 degree turn.

 

But you never know. The Red Sox, for their part, have tended to waffle a bit in their philosophy in the JH years.

[Kimmi]

If the Sox win the championship this year, I think the Yankees go big with free agency in the offseason.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox win the championship this year, I think the Yankees go big with free agency in the offseason.

 

I think they go big either way, and since they have a full roster, I think they spend large on just a few of the best free agents (maybe 2). They may also make some 2 or 3 for 1 trades to clear roster space for rule 5 players.

 

1. OF Jake Cave

2. OF Billy McKinney

3. SP Daniel Camarena

4. SP/RP Stephen Tarpley

5. SP Brady Lail

6. 1B Mike Ford

7. OF Rashad Crawford

8. SP Austin DeCarr

9. SP Domingo Acevedo

10. OF Mark Payton

11. SS Abiatal Avelino

12. OF Devyn Bolasky

13. INF Thairo Estrada

14. RP J.P. Feyereisen

15. SP/RP Nestor Cortes

16. SP Albert Abreu

17. RP Cale Coshow

18. 2B Gosuke Katoh

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I think they go big either way, and since they have a full roster, I think they spend large on just a few of the best free agents (maybe 2). They may also make some 2 or 3 for 1 trades to clear roster space for rule 5 players.

 

1. OF Jake Cave- Dealt to Minnesota

2. OF Billy McKinney- Dealt to Toronto

3. SP Daniel Camarena- released

4. SP/RP Stephen Tarpley- added to 40 man

5. SP Brady Lail- likely to be allowed to leave via INTL FA

6. 1B Mike Ford- same as above

7. OF Rashad Crawford- same as above

8. SP Austin DeCarr- same as above

9. SP Domingo Acevedo- on the 40 man

10. OF Mark Payton- will leave via FA

11. SS Abiatal Avelino- dealt to SF

12. OF Devyn Bolasky- may have some value, unsure

13. INF Thairo Estrada- on the 40 man

14. RP J.P. Feyereisen- may have some value

15. SP/RP Nestor Cortes- may have some value

16. SP Albert Abreu- on the 40 man

17. RP Cale Coshow- will be allowed to walk in FA

18. 2B Gosuke Katoh- same as above

 

 

 

I updated it for you

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Yankees go wild with big FA deals this offseason it would represent kind of a 180 degree turn from the direction Cashman appears to have been moving in the last few years, trying NOT to be the way the team was in his early days as GM. And presumably he has had the support of Hal in that regard.

 

I'll be surprised if they make that 180 degree turn.

 

But you never know. The Red Sox, for their part, have tended to waffle a bit in their philosophy in the JH years.

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all. I think the Yankees have a core they can build around for years. This was something they were trying to recreate and once Jeter left, the core was all on the links. They had to reset the cap to save form them being hammered on the lux tax. They've got the space now and the trajectory is up. They will definitely be big players this year.

[BillyWilliams]

I just hope they put their money and trade efforts into starting pitching.

 

I certainly don't want big money invested in machado or harper.

[BillyWilliams]

If the Sox win the championship this year, I think the Yankees go big with free agency in the offseason.

 

If the Yankees win the championship this year, what do you think the sox would do?

[moonslav59]

If the Yankees win the championship this year, what do you think the sox would do?

 

They'd try to extend the window to 2021. They'd keep Kimbrel and try to get a quality set-up man or two. They'd probably be near or over the max penalty line (again).

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't be surprised at all. I think the Yankees have a core they can build around for years. This was something they were trying to recreate and once Jeter left, the core was all on the links. They had to reset the cap to save form them being hammered on the lux tax. They've got the space now and the trajectory is up. They will definitely be big players this year.

 

But let's say they sign 2 of Machado, Harper and Kershaw, just for fun, at $30 million per or more.

 

That's going to give them cap problems again pretty quickly, isn't it?

[Bellhorn04]

If the Yankees win the championship this year, what do you think the sox would do?

 

There's a big difference - the Sox can't do much even if they want to. They've got their hands full just hanging onto the studs they have.

[Carpin]

I just hope they put their money and trade efforts into starting pitching.

 

I certainly don't want big money invested in machado or harper.

 

I agree, but which pitcher in this year market is a "game changer"? I don't see any, unless Kershaw opts out of his deal and I don't think it will happen for the recent health question marks, I doubt he gets 30M+/yr in the open market.

[moonslav59]

But let's say they sign 2 of Machado, Harper and Kershaw, just for fun, at $30 million per or more.

 

That's going to give them cap problems again pretty quickly, isn't it?

 

Probably, but at least their tax level is reset to the lowest rate.

 

The Yanks lose a ton of money pretty consistently over the next few years. Some players leaving will hurt or cost a lot to keep, but it doesn't seem as bad as the Sox schedule of studs reaching free agency in the next few years.

 

3 years (through 2021)

BOS: Pedey, ERod, Vaz, Barnes, Hembree

NYY: Chapman, Torreyes, Bird

 

4 years (through 2022 or longer)

BOS: Price, Beni, Devers, Brasier, Swihart, Hernandez, Johnson, Velazquez...

NYY: Severino, Stanton, Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, Voit, German, Holder, Cessa, Green, Frazier, Loaissiga, Montgomery...

 

Without even looking at the farm differential, and I think the yanks are better there, here's a look at players under team control for 3 or more years:

 

[BillyWilliams]

I agree, but which pitcher in this year market is a "game changer"? I don't see any, unless Kershaw opts out of his deal and I don't think it will happen for the recent health question marks, I doubt he gets 30M+/yr in the open market.

 

I like Corbin in arizona, I believe he's a FA at the end of this season. Not saying he's a "game changer", but I think he could be a solid pick up.

 

Others would probably come via trade.

[moonslav59]

I agree, but which pitcher in this year market is a "game changer"? I don't see any, unless Kershaw opts out of his deal and I don't think it will happen for the recent health question marks, I doubt he gets 30M+/yr in the open market.

* Option

 

 

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco *

Patrick Corbin

A.J. Griffin

Cole Hamels *

Jason Hammel *

J.A. Happ

Matt Harvey

Scott Kazmir

Clayton Kershaw *

Dallas Keuchel

Tom Koehler

Jeff Locke

Brandon McCarthy

Tommy Milone

Charlie Morton

Drew Pomeranz

David Price *

Garrett Richards

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ervin Santana *

James Shields *

Drew Smyly

Edinson Volquez

Adam Wainwright

Travis Wood

 

[BillyWilliams]

* Option

 

 

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco *

Patrick Corbin

A.J. Griffin

Cole Hamels *

Jason Hammel *

J.A. Happ

Matt Harvey

Scott Kazmir

Clayton Kershaw *

Dallas Keuchel

Tom Koehler

Jeff Locke

Brandon McCarthy

Tommy Milone

Charlie Morton

Drew Pomeranz

David Price *

Garrett Richards

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ervin Santana *

James Shields *

Drew Smyly

Edinson Volquez

Adam Wainwright

Travis Wood

 

 

I would think the Yanks would make an offer on Happ as he has done well during his stint in Pinstripes with the added bonus of doing very well against the sox during his career.

 

I also think keuchel or morton would be of interest to the Yanks, depending on cost.

[moonslav59]

I would think the Yanks would make an offer on Happ as he has done well during his stint in Pinstripes with the added bonus of doing very well against the sox during his career.

 

I also think keuchel or morton would be of interest to the Yanks, depending on cost.

 

I'm not sure cost is an issue as much as which 2 (or even 3) the Yanks want the most out of Machado, Harper, Morton, Keuchel, Britton, and Happ.

[Carpin]

* Option

 

 

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco *

Patrick Corbin

A.J. Griffin

Cole Hamels *

Jason Hammel *

J.A. Happ

Matt Harvey

Scott Kazmir

Clayton Kershaw *

Dallas Keuchel

Tom Koehler

Jeff Locke

Brandon McCarthy

Tommy Milone

Charlie Morton

Drew Pomeranz

David Price *

Garrett Richards

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ervin Santana *

James Shields *

Drew Smyly

Edinson Volquez

Adam Wainwright

Travis Wood

 

 

The only pitcher who is a real possibility here is Keuchel, the rest of them are either not that good or not reaching FA, I agree most of them are good arms but not great pitchers

[Carpin]

I missed Morton. he's a really interesting option

[BillyWilliams]

I'm not sure cost is an issue as much as which 2 (or even 3) the Yanks want the most out of Machado, Harper, Morton, Keuchel, Britton, and Happ.

 

I myself don't see a need for harper or machado, especially given the cost and length of the contracts they will demand.

 

I think Britton is a smart pick up due to Chapman's knee issues.

 

The cost on keuchel and morton does matter. In keuchel's case because of his up and down numbers while morton is more due to age as he is 34 right now I believe.

[moonslav59]

The only pitcher who is a real possibility here is Keuchel, the rest of them are either not that good or not reaching FA, I agree most of them are good arms but not great pitchers

 

Morton is better than Keuchel, although he's 4.3 years older.

 

2017-2018

 

Morton 29-10 3.37

Keuchel 25-26 3.37

 

But look here...

 

WHIP

Morton 1.18

Keuchel 1.22

 

SIERA

Morton 3.62

Keuchel 3.92

 

K%

Morton 28%

Keuchel 19%

 

 

[moonslav59]

I myself don't see a need for harper or machado, especially given the cost and length of the contracts they will demand.

 

I think Britton is a smart pick up due to Chapman's knee issues.

 

The cost on keuchel and morton does matter. In keuchel's case because of his up and down numbers while morton is more due to age as he is 34 right now I believe.

 

I thought the same about Ellsbury, but you guys fell for it.

 

Machado & harper are 10 times better than Ellsbury was at signing time.

 

My guess is you get one.

 

You could sign Machado and trade someone or move Andujar to 1B and trade Bird.

[Slasher9]

I myself don't see a need for harper or machado, especially given the cost and length of the contracts they will demand.

 

I think Britton is a smart pick up due to Chapman's knee issues.

 

The cost on keuchel and morton does matter. In keuchel's case because of his up and down numbers while morton is more due to age as he is 34 right now I believe.

whichever big time/LTC FAs the yankees sign one thing is for sure....i hope they all get pilots licenses.....

[jacksonianmarch]

We also could just re-sign JA Happ

[Carpin]

We also could just re-sign JA Happ

 

Happ for me is a no brainer, but we'll need more than that

[Kimmi]

If the Yankees win the championship this year, what do you think the sox would do?

 

I think the Sox are pretty much set either way for next year. Some bullpen and depth additions.

 

It's 2020 and beyond that worry me.