Bogie the Quiet performer . . .

[Dojji]

I just looked up his UZR/150 over the past few years. From 2015-2018, he has a cumulative UZR/150 of 2. He is barely above average, but that's pretty good, especially with what he brings to the table

 

I'll definitely take an adequate glove to go with his middle of the order type bat. He's not the return of Nomar that I think some of us were hoping for, but he's an excellent player at a position where good offense is nearly impossible to find.

[notin]

Season to season fluctuations like those are nothing new. The averages still work out to a pretty large 127 point difference.

 

While true, outside of 2017, he was a much more productive hitter away from Camden in recent years. I wouldn’t put too much faith in his road woes early in his career when he was still at an age when most players are still in A-ball...

[jacksonianmarch]

And the team linked to him the most has a ridiculous short porch in RF that he has used a few times as well

[S5Dewey]

there is a gentleman in Maine who is giddy at the thought of this.......

 

There are two of us? There's a "gentleman" here who feels that way too?

 

Yes, Bring Iggy home!!

 

That may not be as far from reality as one might think. DD traded for him once already.

[moonslav59]

I like Iggy, too.

 

Sign Iggy, move Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B/DH.

 

Then we can start a whole new thread on how our team can keep winning with a player hitting just .600... kinda like the JBJ thread.

[Maxbialystock]

I like Iggy, too.

 

Sign Iggy, move Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B/DH.

 

Then we can start a whole new thread on how our team can keep winning with a player hitting just .600... kinda like the JBJ thread.

 

Actually, he's .700 and has the 4th best (.9) DWAR among AL SS's. Machado as the Orioles SS this season? Dad last with a DWAR of -1.2. Bogey at -.8. Overall WAR among AL shortstops: Bogey 6th with 3.2, Iggy 10 with 2.2, and Machado 8th with 2.8.

 

When he was on the Sox, I was very pro-Iglesias. Now I say, good riddance. His cumulative WAR, 2013-2018, is 9.8. Bogey's is 14.2 and he only played in 18 game in 2013 and had a really rough apprenticeship in 2014 (WAR .2). 2014-2017 (last 4 seasons), Bogey has played an average 151 games. Iggy has played an average of 93 games and never more that 137 (which he could surpass this year but can't match Bogey's average of 151 over four years.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, he's .700 and has the 4th best (.9) DWAR among AL SS's. Machado as the Orioles SS this season? Dad last with a DWAR of -1.2. Bogey at -.8. Overall WAR among AL shortstops: Bogey 6th with 3.2, Iggy 10 with 2.2, and Machado 8th with 2.8.

 

When he was on the Sox, I was very pro-Iglesias. Now I say, good riddance. His cumulative WAR, 2013-2018, is 9.8. Bogey's is 14.2 and he only played in 18 game in 2013 and had a really rough apprenticeship in 2014 (WAR .2). 2014-2017 (last 4 seasons), Bogey has played an average 151 games. Iggy has played an average of 93 games and never more that 137 (which he could surpass this year but can't match Bogey's average of 151 over four years.

 

Bogie is the superior player of course. The question is whether we'll be able to meet his free agent price. If we can't, Iglesias might be a possible candidate to replace him. He's become a fairly solid 2.5 WAR type guy at least...

[S5Dewey]

Actually, he's .700 and has the 4th best (.9) DWAR among AL SS's. Machado as the Orioles SS this season? Dad last with a DWAR of -1.2. Bogey at -.8. Overall WAR among AL shortstops: Bogey 6th with 3.2, Iggy 10 with 2.2, and Machado 8th with 2.8.

 

When he was on the Sox, I was very pro-Iglesias. Now I say, good riddance. His cumulative WAR, 2013-2018, is 9.8. Bogey's is 14.2 and he only played in 18 game in 2013 and had a really rough apprenticeship in 2014 (WAR .2). 2014-2017 (last 4 seasons), Bogey has played an average 151 games. Iggy has played an average of 93 games and never more that 137 (which he could surpass this year but can't match Bogey's average of 151 over four years.

 

Now there's some misleading data! Cherry picking at its best! It averages Bogaerts 4 best years and ignores the two before them, then includes the year Iggy lost to his leg injuries!!

 

That average of 93 games includes 2014 when he didn't play at all - and wasn't expected to - because of an injury.

 

Every year that Iggy's been active he's averaged 122 games per season + whatever he plays in the remaining games this year. Bogaert's average since 2014 has been 145 per year since the start of 2014 + remaining games this year. (I didn't average in the 18 games in 2013 because it would have been disingenuous to do so).

 

So the difference in games played per year is realistically 145-122 or 23 games/year, not 151-93 or 58 gpy.

 

What WAR tells us in that situation is what we already know. Iggy is a better defensive SS and Bogaerts is a better offensives SS.

 

*games played from Baseball Reference.

[jacksonianmarch]

WAR also tells us that Bogaerts is the vastly superior player

[S5Dewey]

WAR also tells us that Bogaerts is the vastly superior player

 

Vastly? Really?

In my book if a player is going to be "vastly" superior to another they should be better both offensively AND defensively.

 

I'm not saying that Iggy is as good (overall) as Bogaerts but to say he's "vastly superior" is quite a stretch.

[notin]

Vastly? Really?

In my book if a player is going to be "vastly" superior to another they should be better both offensively AND defensively.

 

I'm not saying that Iggy is as good (overall) as Bogaerts but to say he's "vastly superior" is quite a stretch.

 

So you’re saying Ted Williams was NOT vastly superior over Darren Lewis?

[S5Dewey]

So you’re saying Ted Williams was NOT vastly superior over Darren Lewis?

You kinda make a career out of digging up obscure situations to "prove a point" don't you? It's not cute.

 

I'm saying that in this situation we have two players who are 5 WAR apart over a five year period. That's an average of one win per year. In my mind that's not "Vastly better".

[OH FOY]

WAR also tells us that Bogaerts is the vastly superior player

 

Agree, and don't need WAR to tell me. I see a lot of guys here would have loved Ed Brinkman and Bud Harrelson. Same kind of players, light hitting Defense was there thing. Getting the All around SS is the thing that is Special, not one dimensional. Bogaerts leans that way.

Seems everytime I see Iglesias he swings real hard and gets a lot of bloop hits. Very rare does he rope a ball. Even when he was here.

Edited September 8, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

You kinda make a career out of digging up obscure situations to "prove a point" don't you? It's not cute.

 

I'm saying that in this situation we have two players who are 5 WAR apart over a five year period. That's an average of one win per year. In my mind that's not "Vastly better".

 

It’s not my fault that sweeping generalizations should cover extremes. And not the same as your second reason (5 WAR difference is not a big difference over 5 seasons).

 

However as many other posters clearly think Bogaerts is vastly superior to Iglesias, this conflicts with your argument that WAR doesn’t tell us something we already know.

 

This leaves two possibilities. WAR does tell us things we don’t already know, such as the difference between Bogaerts and Iglesias isn’t that great. Or WAR can be inaccurate in the face of observation, and Bogaerts is vastly superior to Iglesias...

[Emp9]

It’s not my fault that sweeping generalizations should cover extremes. And not the same as your second reason (5 WAR difference is not a big difference over 5 seasons).

 

However as many other posters clearly think Bogaerts is vastly superior to Iglesias, this conflicts with your argument that WAR doesn’t tell us something we already know.

 

This leaves two possibilities. WAR does tell us things we don’t already know, such as the difference between Bogaerts and Iglesias isn’t that great. Or WAR can be inaccurate in the face of observation, and Bogaerts is vastly superior to Iglesias...

 

Doesn’t matter. S5 used WAR. End of discussion. Close the thread. Lol:rolleyes:

[Sox75]

This is NOT all that complicated.

 

D.

Iggy is an incredibly talented SS, with God given physical speed and agility that few SS & athletes have. He has also obviously worked incredibly hard in honing these skills. Not many come close to being able to match his abilities to make spectacular defensive plays.

 

Bogie has CLEARLY worked hard at becoming a very good MLB SS! He makes most of the plays Iggie makes. He's better than most MLB SS, and he's getting better every year.

 

O

 

Bogie is CLEARLY the superior offensive player!

 

HR's Bogie 20, Iggie 5 > That's 15 bombs that likely helped the Sox win that day. 15 games where he had a significant impact on helping his team win. ( yeh yeh yeh..., I get that there are games where he had multiple HR's)

 

RBI's: Bogie will end the season with close to 100. Iggie 50. That's +50 runs over the season (duh )

50 times Bogie gives us a significantly better chance of winning.

 

Runs scored: Bogie 65, Iggie 43, yeh, getting on base matters

 

OPS .869 vs .699

 

* Bottom line, I take Bogie's VERY SOLID D, and his CLEARLY SUPERIOR bat every day of the week, and never give it a second thought.

 

I don't need WAR to figure this out. I don't need WAR to tell me that I THINK Bogie is the no-brainer choice if I'm an MLB GM.

 

 

Now, having said all this, my original OP was simply to acknowledge a great year by Bogie. I probably shouldn't have mentioned Iggy. I like him very much, and fully acknowledge that he is a one of a kind SS. I still take Bogie without a second thought, so I guess in my mind Bogie is a far superior SS option when factoring in Offense (The other 1/2 of the player evaluation equation).

Edited September 8, 2018 by Sox75

[moonslav59]

Bogie has CLEARLY worked hard at becoming a very good MLB SS! He makes most of the plays Iggie makes. He's better than most MLB SS, and he's getting better every year.

 

I have to disagree. He's not better than most MLB Sss on defense. Once could argue it's not even close. He's last in DRS in almost any sample size you chose. He's about average in UZR/150. His range is near last in MLB. Yes, he makes the plays hit right to him. His arm is accurate and pretty strong. That's about it.

 

He has not gotten better every year. He does look better this year than maybe any other season, but it has not been a continuous progression upwards. It's not just the numbers that show it, I watch every play of every game, and I came to my conclusions before looking at the numbers. I haven't spoken about it for a long time, because his offense more than makes up for his defense-- by a long shot. He's a huge overall plus on this team, but when I hear someone praise his defense, I can't be silent.

 

He's okay, at best. He might be average this year, if you throw our DRS and range considerations.

 

UZR/150 has been a yo-yo not continued growth

 

-4.3 2014

+2.6 2015

-2.2 2016

-0.9 2017

+2.7 2018

 

DRS shows decline after one early up year

-9

-1

-10

-11

-17

 

Range has been consistently poor, except for one year.

-3.0

-3.5

-3.7

+0.7

-4.1

 

Inside Edge shows that over his career he has made 13 plays out of 258 plays rated as 0-40% plays. That's 5%. He makes 55% of the plays rated as 40-60%.

 

Since we have been speaking of Iggy recently, he has a +10.0 career UZR/150 and +12 DRS. Inside Edge shows he has made 27 out of 201 plays ranked 0-40%, which is 13.5%- more that's over 8% better. He makes 68.4% of the 40-60% plays, which is 13% better than Bogey. They are almost identical in likely and routine plays.

 

If someone wants to call Bogey "average at best" I won't really argue all that much, despite disagreeing, but IMO, he is certainly not "better than most MLB SSs" on defense.

[notin]

But then the real issue with Iglesias and why he isn’t coming to Boston is he is simply a free agent at the wrong time. The Sox control Bogaerts next season and aren’t moving him to 3b. They’re probably not looking to move Devers off third for defensive reasons anytime soon, but even if they do, re-arranging 3/4 of the infield to accommodate Iglesias is not likely. Especially since it can be remedied much simpler by signing Josh Donaldson, himself a Gold Glover who might be available on a cheaper deal. Or Mike Moustakas,

 

I think the 2019 infield will look a lot like the 2018 infield, and the Sox instead use their limited available resources on pitching...

[moonslav59]

But then the real issue with Iglesias and why he isn’t coming to Boston is he is simply a free agent at the wrong time. The Sox control Bogaerts next season and aren’t moving him to 3b. They’re probably not looking to move Devers off third for defensive reasons anytime soon, but even if they do, re-arranging 3/4 of the infield to accommodate Iglesias is not likely. Especially since it can be remedied much simpler by signing Josh Donaldson, himself a Gold Glover who might be available on a cheaper deal. Or Mike Moustakas,

 

I think the 2019 infield will look a lot like the 2018 infield, and the Sox instead use their limited available resources on pitching...

 

I agree on the Sox not moving 2 guys to obtain a weak hitting SS. However, both moves would improve our defense.

 

Bogey would be a better fielder at 3B than Devers & Nunez. Devers at DH would improve our defense. Devers at 1B would not, especially since Moreland plays 1B vs RHPs.

 

We are not getting Iggy. I know that, but dreaming of a defense like this is not a bad thing...

 

C Leon

1B Moreland

2B Pedey (Kinsler?)

3B Bogey

SS Iggy

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH/OF JD

DH/1B/3B Devers

 

 

[notin]

I agree on the Sox not moving 2 guys to obtain a weak hitting SS. However, both moves would improve our defense.

 

Bogey would be a better fielder at 3B than Devers & Nunez. Devers at DH would improve our defense. Devers at 1B would not, especially since Moreland plays 1B vs RHPs.

 

We are not getting Iggy. I know that, but dreaming of a defense like this is not a bad thing...

 

C Leon

1B Moreland

2B Pedey (Kinsler?)

3B Bogey

SS Iggy

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH/OF JD

DH/1B/3B Devers

 

 

 

Why not dream of a lineup with Devers at 1b, Bogaerts at 3b, and Josh Donaldson at third on a reasonable pillow contract?

 

That’s not only a better them than you proposed, but probably really close defensively, too...

[moonslav59]

Why not dream of a lineup with Devers at 1b, Bogaerts at 3b, and Josh Donaldson at third on a reasonable pillow contract?

 

That’s not only a better them than you proposed, but probably really close defensively, too...

 

Bogey & Josh at 3B might get the job done, but what about balls hit to the vacant SS hole?

 

All kidding aside, I'm not sure Donaldson would be a good gamble, but I'm fine with a 1 year deal.

 

With Devers at 1B, Moreland's role is nullified. I guess we could trade him.

 

I hate to say it, but moving Devers to DH (some 1B and 3B) makes more sense, but that would mean trading JBJ and putting JD in the OF.

 

I don't want that.

 

I think we give Devers one more year at 3B to sink or swim. When Moreland's deal expires, the choice will be made.

[notin]

Bogey & Josh at 3B might get the job done, but what about balls hit to the vacant SS hole?

 

All kidding aside, I'm not sure Donaldson would be a good gamble, but I'm fine with a 1 year deal.

 

With Devers at 1B, Moreland's role is nullified. I guess we could trade him.

 

I hate to say it, but moving Devers to DH (some 1B and 3B) makes more sense, but that would mean trading JBJ and putting JD in the OF.

 

I don't want that.

 

I think we give Devers one more year at 3B to sink or swim. When Moreland's deal expires, the choice will be made.

 

The Sox very likely keep Devers at third. Donaldson isn’t happening either.

 

But if the Sox do make some move that relegates Moreland to the bench, it’s not a horrible thing salary-wise. He’s basically paid the same as Chris Young and Jonny Gomes were paid the be backup players...

[oldtimer]

Bogey & Josh at 3B might get the job done, but what about balls hit to the vacant SS hole?

 

All kidding aside, I'm not sure Donaldson would be a good gamble, but I'm fine with a 1 year deal.

 

With Devers at 1B, Moreland's role is nullified. I guess we could trade him.

 

I hate to say it, but moving Devers to DH (some 1B and 3B) makes more sense, but that would mean trading JBJ and putting JD in the OF.

 

I don't want that.

 

I think we give Devers one more year at 3B to sink or swim. When Moreland's deal expires, the choice will be made.

 

Devers is still very young and really something needs to click for him to reach real ML status. Slim down, stop making throwing errors like he made again today, become a more consistent hitter. Maybe he moves to first base but we do have Moreland for another year. No guarantee that Devers game awareness plays well at 1st either. It maybe overly harsh to say that he just doesn't seem to understand what it takes to be a ML player. He very well may become a valuable player in the future, so we need to find a place where he can flourish.

 

Possibly we keep Swihart and groom him for first. I would keep both Kinsler and Pedey for next year while I look for a younger replacement. Neither should play 162 games at their age anyway. Bogaerts is becoming very valuable and will need to be paid. Third base is a conundrum for next season. Do we keep Phillips for another year while we try to bring Devers along?

[moonslav59]

I'm still super high on Devers, no matter what position he ends up at. It sucks he had to learn under the spotlight of a serious championship run, but I'm glad he here and hope he stays here a long long time.

[S5Dewey]

It should surprise no one that I used WAR to make my case that Iggy is clearly superior to Bogaerts defensively. I've long said that WAR is useful in comparing players, just not as useful as most people think it is.

 

In this case WAR told me what I already knew, that Bogaerts is the superior hitter and Iggy the superior defensive player.

 

The end.

[Bellhorn04]

It should surprise no one that I used WAR to make my case that Iggy is clearly superior to Bogaerts defensively. I've long said that WAR is useful in comparing players, just not as useful as most people think it is.

 

In this case WAR told me what I already knew, that Bogaerts is the superior hitter and Iggy the superior defensive player.

 

The end.

 

But the more interesting thing that's revealed is that the superior hitter gets the edge over the superior defender.

 

Not because stat geeks don't value defense enough. Because you just don't get as many chances to truly make a difference on defense as you do on offense.

[S5Dewey]

But the more interesting thing that's revealed is that the superior hitter gets the edge over the superior defender.

 

Not because stat geeks don't value defense enough. Because you just don't get as many chances to truly make a difference on defense as you do on offense.

 

I'm not at all surprised that the superior hitter gets the nod over an outstanding defensive player. It's all about our expectations. We expect the defensive player to make all the plays while we're happy if the offensive player is successful ~30% of the time.

 

As to opportunities, if you consider every time a defensive player touches the ball to be an opportunity for an error some players probably do have as many chances to make a difference on defense as on offense.

 

IMO one of the great inequities in baseball is that fans don't value defense enough. Our expectations for defense are much higher than they are for offense. When a player makes a mistake in an AB (doesn't capitalize on a hittable pitch) we ignore it with the attitude of "You can't hit them all". OTOH when a defensive player makes a mistake on a playable ball it goes into the record books as an error. While frequently that error results in a run (or more) being scored by the opponent the hitter gets a "pass' on his mistake, which may have cost the offense a run or more. The important thing there is that while we don't hold a hitter responsible for missing a hittable pitch we do hold the defensive player accountable for his mistakes.

[Kimmi]

You kinda make a career out of digging up obscure situations to "prove a point" don't you? It's not cute.

 

I'm saying that in this situation we have two players who are 5 WAR apart over a five year period. That's an average of one win per year. In my mind that's not "Vastly better".

 

I'm not sure where you're getting a 5 WAR difference over a 5 year period. At any rate, Iggy did not even play in 2014, so perhaps looking at the a 4 year period, or even a 3 year period might make more sense.

 

From 2015 to 2018, Iggy has been worth 7.9 fWAR. Over the same period, Bogaerts has been worth 17 fWAR. That's an average of 2.275 WAR per year.

 

Note: Even going back 5 years, Bogey is an average of 1.84 WAR per year better than Iggy.

[Kimmi]

Devers is still very young and really something needs to click for him to reach real ML status. Slim down, stop making throwing errors like he made again today, become a more consistent hitter. Maybe he moves to first base but we do have Moreland for another year. No guarantee that Devers game awareness plays well at 1st either. It maybe overly harsh to say that he just doesn't seem to understand what it takes to be a ML player. He very well may become a valuable player in the future, so we need to find a place where he can flourish.

 

Possibly we keep Swihart and groom him for first. I would keep both Kinsler and Pedey for next year while I look for a younger replacement. Neither should play 162 games at their age anyway. Bogaerts is becoming very valuable and will need to be paid. Third base is a conundrum for next season. Do we keep Phillips for another year while we try to bring Devers along?

 

Merloni, who is usually spot on, made a good point about how many of Devers' errors are mental, not physical. That is something that is most likely a product of his very young age and his lack of defensive grooming in the minors. In other words, he will (or should) grow out of that. As I've said many times, he requires patience.

 

Devers is our long term 3B. Whether he is our 3B for the postseason remains to be seen.

[Kimmi]

I'm still super high on Devers, no matter what position he ends up at. It sucks he had to learn under the spotlight of a serious championship run, but I'm glad he here and hope he stays here a long long time.

 

I don't think the FO is going to give up on him as quickly as some fans have.

 

Unless they are given an offer for him that they can't refuse, Devers will be here for a long time.