2018-2019 Yankee rumors thread

[Meh]

That would be great, I love the guy and he loved to play for us

 

I'd be all in on a Miller reunion.

 

Honestly, here's what I would do this off season as of now. I know it's not going to be even close, but meh.

 

Resign Didi to a 2 year 20 million deal, I stole this idea from RAB. lol.

I'd tender everyone else too.

 

Signings.

 

Patrick Corbin. 5 years 19 million per.

Daniel Murphy 2 years 21 million

Andrew Miller 2 years 22 million

David Robertson 2 years 26 million

 

 

Trades:

Carrassco for Hicks, Green, and Cessa.

 

Betances for May, Santana, and Sheffield

 

Jon Gray for Greg Bird and Holder

 

AJ Cole to the Guardians for cash

 

Sonny Gray for Zach Brown and Payton Henry

 

Derek Dietrich for Acevedo

 

I took a little off of my original Guardians deal. Selling high on Dellin to a desperate Dodgers who I think will also sign Ottavino. I love Bird, but I think Gray can rebound. Bird goes home to Colorado and Gray gets paired with Rothschild. Yankees sell high on Holder too. No way we can dump Ellsbury off on anyone.

 

C: Sanchez

1B: Voit

2B: Murphy

SS: Torres

3B: Andujar

LF: Stanton

CF: Gardner

RF: Judge

DH: Ellsbury (more of a rotating DH, but for purposes of this list Ells here)

 

Bench: Romine, Wade, and Torreyes. with Dietrich being a super sub

 

CC, Severino, Corbin, Tanaka, and CC

 

Chapman

Robertson

Miller

German (turn him into a 2 inning RP and see if you have a Betances v2)

Tarpley

Kahnle

Gray, let's face it no way those starters stay healthy. I think Jon Gray would be in the rotation come May.

 

 

DL: Didi, Monty, Heller

 

Triple-A rotation

Sheffield

Zach Brown

Adams

Loaisiga

King

 

 

That's a 201 million dollar payroll, a great team but a team that can make improvements in season too. Very flexible roster.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Meh

[jacksonianmarch]

Thats quote an overhaul for a team in need of tweaking. I don’t like Murphy. I know he’s been reasonable good with the bat, but he showed some serious signs of regression and is 36. No reason to force him into the lineup.

 

Dealing Hicks for Carrasco doesn’t make sense for the Guardians. Why deal two years of Carrasco to get one year of Hicks. Green is also too important to let go with Dellin heading into his final season. I know you’re dealing Dellin in this scenario, but he’s been lights out sans a 2017 blip.

 

I think what Cash did last year will continue. Rather than rely on the meat of our pen to develop from failed starters, I still think the meat of our pen will be tried and true relievers. I’d doubt significantly that we would gut our middle relief, the strength of our team, and deal off Green, Dellin and Holder while replacing them with big arms who haven’t produced much and with vets who are pretty old

[BillyWilliams]

He’s a stud who’s at the age when pitchers start to fade. I do t want to deal for an ace and get #3 or 4 productivity out of them

 

He doesn't have much of an injury history and hasn't shown any sign of slowing down.

 

And I believe his current contract with options is only for 3 more years, so it's not a very long term commitment.

 

Bottom line is he is better than anyone else available that we know of.

[jacksonianmarch]

He is better, but he’s at an age where a decline for a power pitcher is expected and he will cost talent to acquire. I don’t want to pay an ace premium and get a #3 starter

[BillyWilliams]

He is better, but he’s at an age where a decline for a power pitcher is expected and he will cost talent to acquire. I don’t want to pay an ace premium and get a #3 starter

 

What indication is there that he will be a #3 starter in the next couple of years?

 

And what's a better alternative on the market right now?

[notin]

I'd be all in on a Miller reunion.

 

Honestly, here's what I would do this off season as of now. I know it's not going to be even close, but meh.

 

Resign Didi to a 2 year 20 million deal, I stole this idea from RAB. lol.

I'd tender everyone else too.

 

Signings.

 

Patrick Corbin. 5 years 19 million per.

Daniel Murphy 2 years 21 million

Andrew Miller 2 years 22 million

David Robertson 2 years 26 million

 

 

Trades:

Carrassco for Hicks, Green, and Cessa.

 

Betances for May, Santana, and Sheffield

 

Jon Gray for Greg Bird and Holder

 

AJ Cole to the Guardians for cash

 

Sonny Gray for Zach Brown and Payton Henry

 

Derek Dietrich for Acevedo

 

I took a little off of my original Guardians deal. Selling high on Dellin to a desperate Dodgers who I think will also sign Ottavino. I love Bird, but I think Gray can rebound. Bird goes home to Colorado and Gray gets paired with Rothschild. Yankees sell high on Holder too. No way we can dump Ellsbury off on anyone.

 

C: Sanchez

1B: Voit

2B: Murphy

SS: Torres

3B: Andujar

LF: Stanton

CF: Gardner

RF: Judge

DH: Ellsbury (more of a rotating DH, but for purposes of this list Ells here)

 

Bench: Romine, Wade, and Torreyes. with Dietrich being a super sub

 

CC, Severino, Corbin, Tanaka, and CC

 

Chapman

Robertson

Miller

German (turn him into a 2 inning RP and see if you have a Betances v2)

Tarpley

Kahnle

Gray, let's face it no way those starters stay healthy. I think Jon Gray would be in the rotation come May.

 

 

DL: Didi, Monty, Heller

 

Triple-A rotation

Sheffield

Zach Brown

Adams

Loaisiga

King

 

 

That's a 201 million dollar payroll, a great team but a team that can make improvements in season too. Very flexible roster.

 

So one year of a set up who could be making $7.5-8mill nets two top prospects plus another from a deep organization that has needs beyond the bullpen?

 

I’d also doubt the Rockies sell so low on Gray and especially at a time when they’re coming off a postseason berth and already have a pretty good 1b prospect who needs a chance. Not to mention Bird hasn’t done anyone any favors with his frequent DL time..

Edited November 8, 2018 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

In an era of power pitchers, Betances is one of the top 5 in the game. He's not "just" a setup man. He is a relief ace. Last year, his K/9IP were up there with Hader. Actually, his peripherals were very similar to Hader's yet Hader was considered this whiz pen arm. The difference between Hader and Dellin was about 90 points of BABIP, that's it. I'd actually say the Dodgers package would be rather light. We sent 3 prospects, including our midseason top 5 prospect in Tate for 2 months of Britton, who had warts much larger than Dellin's. If the Yankees deal him, we will get a haul in return.

[notin]

That BABIP difference was not luck. Bettances was among the worst in MLB for giving up line drives. His HR/FB% was also significantly worse than Hader’s. Lots of line drives = high BABIP.

 

If I were to suggest Matt Barnes was worth 2 top prospects plus from another team, you’d be among the first to shoot it down as ludicrous. Yet Barnes strikes out nearly as many as Betances, gives up fewer line drives (re: hits), fewer home runs, and unlike Betances, has a high BABIP that actually might be carried by some bad luck. Oh, and Barnes is cheaper and has more control remaining...

[Meh]

Thats quote an overhaul fo

 

I don't think it's that big of an overhaul. We need to add starting pitchers man, badly. Robertson is a resign. Miller just replaces Dellin. The line up is the same other than replacing didi with Murphy and Hicks with Ellsbury.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Betances: 2.70 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 15.5 K/9

Barnes: 3.65 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 14.0 K/9

 

While Barnes had a good year, one is clearly better than the other.

[jacksonianmarch]

That BABIP difference was not luck. Bettances was among the worst in MLB for giving up line drives. His HR/FB% was also significantly worse than Hader’s. Lots of line drives = high BABIP.

 

If I were to suggest Matt Barnes was worth 2 top prospects plus from another team, you’d be among the first to shoot it down as ludicrous. Yet Barnes strikes out nearly as many as Betances, gives up fewer line drives (re: hits), fewer home runs, and unlike Betances, has a high BABIP that actually might be carried by some bad luck. Oh, and Barnes is cheaper and has more control remaining...

 

Matt Barnes wasn't close to what Betances was. Not close

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks appear to be in on Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison. It seems they want their own multi position player capable of filling in all over the field. I assume this is in reaction to Didi going down. No point in getting a primary SS or 2B when Didi is gonna return, but why not get a guy who can slide to 3b or the OF if needed due to injury or ineffectiveness. I do like having a swiss army knife. I think Gonzalez is the better of the two, but Harrison has his value even though he is coming off an abysmal 2018

[notin]

Matt Barnes wasn't close to what Betances was. Not close

 

1) That doesn’t answer the question

2) But you’re saying Betances was really close to Josh Hader based upon similar criteria and implying the only difference was bad luck, which it clearly wasn’t (and you’re ignoring the massive gap in IP as well.)

[notin]

Betances: 2.70 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 15.5 K/9

Barnes: 3.65 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 14.0 K/9

 

While Barnes had a good year, one is clearly better than the other.

 

Well, maybe marginally better. FIP tells you Betances allows 25 fewer runs over 900 innings. Not really s big deal there.

 

Of course in my original question, salary and years of control were factors that significantly favor Barnes.

 

So is Barnes worth 2 top prospects plus?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes it does. You said "If I were to suggest Matt Barnes was worth 2 top prospects plus from another team, you’d be among the first to shoot it down as ludicrous". That was your point. Betances was FAR better than Barnes and has been through his career.

[jacksonianmarch]

So the initial returns on the first two weeks of the offseason are about depth, IMO. Gardner adds depth to the OF as well as speed. CC adds depth to the rotation. We know that many more dominos are to fall, but the chatter right now is about Swiss Army knife players and pitching, notable Corbin, Happ and the trade market.

 

News came out yesterday that the Yanks have engaged the Mariners and the Guardians about their available pitching. James Paxton and Corbin are very similar in peripherals minus one major difference, HR rate. Paxton in 2017 had a Corbin 2018 like HR rate. Corbin 2017 had a Paxton 2018 HR rate. My concern with Paxton on this area is that he pitched half his games in a canyon with Corbin pitched half of his in a homer prone park. Also, Corbin is a year younger and a FA where the only charge will be a second round pick. Paxton is controlled for two years under arbitration. From a cost perspective, I understand trying to deal for Paxton, but from a talent cost perspective, I’d take Corbin all day long.

 

The Guardians also came up. And while Carrasco and Kluber are aces, their age concerns me for regression. Neither is a true power pitcher, but it isn’t like they’re finesse guys either. Both sit in the 92-93 mph range and have great command of a deep arsenal. While I’d love to have either, the talent acquisition cost would be huge and we would be getting a player at the end of their expected prime based on age.

 

Also, Sonny Gray’s market has heated up considerably. The Padres look like a possible target due to their deep farm and big ballpark. Gray could be had likely for one top prospect and some filler. If he goes to SD, reclaims his ace status and is moved at the deadline, he could be worth far more. We shall see, but clearly teams are seeing the splits and the stuff and aren’t scared off to this point

[Bellhorn04]

But who would want to acquire such a choker at the trade deadline?

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously, Gray has never been an ace. His highest fWAR was 3.8. In 900 innings his fWAR is 13.7. That's 2.74 per 180 innings. Very respectable but far from an ace.

[jacksonianmarch]

His numbers get skewed due to being in Oakland. His best season was a sub 3 ERA in 208IP with a 7.3:2 K:BB. That being said, a #2 starter is probably more like it.

 

Funny thing is, he wasn’t a choker in Oakland. That didn’t start til he came to NY. This is why I think a move to the NL is gonna happen. Get him as far away from NY and Boston as possible.

[moonslav59]

Seriously, Gray has never been an ace. His highest fWAR was 3.8. In 900 innings his fWAR is 13.7. That's 2.74 per 180 innings. Very respectable but far from an ace.

 

Depends on your definition of "ace". I lean more towards the view that the top 30 starters are "aces" with some wiggle room, of course.

 

From 2014-2015, Gray placed here in starter numbers:

 

T23rd in fWAR at 6.9

 

13th in ERA- at 77

 

16th in WHIP at 1.14

 

To me,those are clearly ace numbers and the sample size was over 425 IP.

 

Even his 2013-2017 numbers are close to top 30 numbers...

 

33rd in SP'er WAR (11.8)

34th in ERA-at 87

35th in WHIP 1.21

 

 

His injuries really kept these numbers down.

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

Edited November 10, 2018 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Gray has produced far better than people are willing to give him credit for I think mostly because he is a Yankee now and because in Oakland, he played half his games where the fecal matter ends up on the field. His away numbers were stellar in 2018. And if you remove Fenway from his away numbers, they look even better. His ERA away from NY and Boston was 2.59. The kid can pitch, he is just a literal head case incapable of playing in a big market. Milwaukee, SD, lineup for him. He will be dominant out there

[notin]

Alot of pitchers start looking better when you don’t count their bad outings...

[Slasher9]

Yes it does. You said "If I were to suggest Matt Barnes was worth 2 top prospects plus from another team, you’d be among the first to shoot it down as ludicrous". That was your point. Betances was FAR better than Barnes and has been through his career.

Which one of them has better World Series stats?

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s a pretty dumb retort

[jacksonianmarch]

Astros and Yankees are prime suitors for Paxton. Gonna be interesting. Pairing Paxton with Verlander and Cole will make the Astros even tougher

[BillyWilliams]

That’s a pretty dumb retort

 

That's to be expected ...........

[Slasher9]

That's to be expected ...........

 

Barnes. 2.1 ip/ 0 er / 4k

What’s betances World Series stats? I can’t find them on baseball reference........

[jacksonianmarch]

That's to be expected ...........

 

Continues to get dumber

[Meh]

Astros and Yankees are prime suitors for Paxton. Gonna be interesting. Pairing Paxton with Verlander and Cole will make the Astros even tougher

 

Well when you look at the Astros are probably going to let Morton and Keuchel go and Mccullers is done for the year. I think they need to make this move more than the Yankees right now. Dodgers and Astros battle it out for Paxton imo and Astros win it.

[Slasher9]

Continues to get dumber

 

nah man. i got you. you're right. im an idiot.

for the 2018 season i predicted

- the yankees were better at every position

- the yankees GM is better

- the yankees hired the better rookie manager

- the yankees SP were better

- the yankees relievers were better

- the red sox were paper tigers and the lead was based only on weak first half opponents and they would easily be caught in the second half when the yankees would feast on these same opponents.

- the yankees july acquisitions were far better than the red sox.

- devers should be traded or demoted

- JBj is terrible and should be benched.

- the red sox lineup was not deep enough to make the postseason and if they do they will not last long.

- the yankees would beat the sox in the ALDS

- the astros would smoke the sox in the ALCS.

 

you're exactly right. i'm dumb about baseball.