In Case of a Tie

[S5Dewey]

Having a well rested team is more important than playing for HFA.

 

Hmmm.... I don't want the Skankees playing most of their playoff games in Yankee Stadium. But I do think that team is the exception.

[harmony]

What are the records of Seattle and Houston vs Toronto, Baltimore, and Toronto?

 

It would seem that these clearly superior battle tested teams should rake against the bottom teams of the east.

 

And if they do not rake then is it possible that the bottom east team could be better than your cherry picking indicates?

LOL ... who's cherry-picking?

 

Seattle is 2-1 against Toronto, 4-0 against Baltimore and 2-1 against Toronto ... and 6-1 against Tampa Bay. The Mariners are 12-2 (.857) overall against those clubs while the Red Sox are 25-7 (.781).

 

Houston is 2-1 against Toronto, 3-0 against Baltimore and 2-1 against Toronto ... and 3-4 against Tampa Bay. The Astros are 8-5 (.615) overall against those clubs.

 

To avoid cherry-picking, the AL West to date has an overall 58-55 record against the AL East (including the Big Bad Red Sox and Yankees), but have played only 16 of those 113 games against the woeful Orioles (who are 1-15 in those contests). AL West clubs look forward to feasting on the Orioles in 17 of the roughly 52 remaining games against the AL East.

 

Critics have legitimately used run differential to question Seattle's success so far this season. Indeed the Mariners' Pythagorean record of 47-44 trails the 66-26 of the Astros by 18.5 games.

 

But by the Pythagorean measure, the Red Sox at 60-31 trail the Astros by 5.5 games, solidifying the favorite status of the defending World Series champions. Other sources endorse Houston's favorite role:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

The Red Sox and Yankees have fine teams this year and AL East may well represent the American League in the World Series for the second time in nine seasons. However, their regular-season win totals may be inflated by playing in a less competitive division.

[Kimmi]

Hmmm.... I don't want the Skankees playing most of their playoff games in Yankee Stadium. But I do think that team is the exception.

 

Of course any team would prefer HFA over not having it, but if it comes down to a choice between HFA or having players rested and healthy, I'm going with the latter.

[SoxnCycles]

The Yankees would be so shocked to see Price out there they won't know what to do.

 

That would probably be Price's only hope of getting a win!

[bkzwhitestrican]

MLB Records Versus Teams with Winning Records

 

1. Yankees 34-16 (.680)

2. Red Sox 32-19 (.627)

3. Mariners 30-23 (.566)

4. Astros 29-23 (.558)

5. Braves 27-24 (.529)

 

AL East rules

[Kimmi]

MLB Records Versus Teams with Winning Records

 

1. Yankees 34-16 (.680)

2. Red Sox 32-19 (.627)

3. Mariners 30-23 (.566)

4. Astros 29-23 (.558)

5. Braves 27-24 (.529)

 

AL East rules

 

The top two teams of the AL East are dominant. No doubt.

 

I don't think that's what Harmony's argument was.

[Kimmi]

That would probably be Price's only hope of getting a win!

 

You have to think outside that box now and then.

[bkzwhitestrican]

The top two teams of the AL East are dominant. No doubt.

 

I don't think that's what Harmony's argument was.

 

MLB Records Versus Teams with Losing Records

 

1. Astros 32-9 (.780)

2. Athletics 29-9 (.763)

3. Red Sox 31-10 (.756)

4. Mariners 27-11 (.711)

...

6. Angels 25-12 (.676)

...

14. Yankees 25-14 (.641)

 

4 of the top 6 teams in baseball at beating bad opponents are in the AL West. So I guess if her point is that the AL west is better overall because it is better at beating crappy opponents, then she's right. The West's bad teams are better than the East's bad teams.. although I think Tampa and Toronto are pretty equal to Oakland and LAA.

[mvp 78]

MLB Records Versus Teams with Losing Records

 

1. Astros 32-9 (.780)

2. Athletics 29-9 (.763)

3. Red Sox 31-10 (.756)

4. Mariners 27-11 (.711)

...

6. Angels 25-12 (.676)

...

14. Yankees 25-14 (.641)

 

4 of the top 6 teams in baseball at beating bad opponents are in the AL West. So I guess if her point is that the AL west is better overall because it is better at beating crappy opponents, then she's right. The West's bad teams are better than the East's bad teams.. although I think Tampa and Toronto are pretty equal to Oakland and LAA.

 

I hope the Yanks continue to play down to their competition.

[Kimmi]

MLB Records Versus Teams with Losing Records

 

1. Astros 32-9 (.780)

2. Athletics 29-9 (.763)

3. Red Sox 31-10 (.756)

4. Mariners 27-11 (.711)

...

6. Angels 25-12 (.676)

...

14. Yankees 25-14 (.641)

 

4 of the top 6 teams in baseball at beating bad opponents are in the AL West. So I guess if her point is that the AL west is better overall because it is better at beating crappy opponents, then she's right. The West's bad teams are better than the East's bad teams.. although I think Tampa and Toronto are pretty equal to Oakland and LAA.

 

I don't think that's the point either. I think the point is with the competition within the division. Seattle and Houston have to play Oakland, LAA, and Texas 18 times a piece, while the Red Sox and Yankees play Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore 18, who are weaker, 18 times a piece.

[Kimmi]

I hope the Yanks continue to play down to their competition.

 

Back to back to back. It needed to be said again.

[mvp 78]

Back to back to back. It needed to be said again.

 

This season's mantra.

[bkzwhitestrican]

I don't think that's the point either. I think the point is with the competition within the division. Seattle and Houston have to play Oakland, LAA, and Texas 18 times a piece, while the Red Sox and Yankees play Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore 18, who are weaker, 18 times a piece.

 

I can agree to that. But only because Baltimore is in the East and they are historically bad (except against the Yankees). The Rays and Jays are collectively 14-13 versus the A's, Angels, and Rangers.

[harmony]

I can agree to that. But only because Baltimore is in the East and they are historically bad (except against the Yankees). The Rays and Jays are collectively 14-13 versus the A's, Angels, and Rangers.

To be precise, in that statistically insignificant sample, the Rays are 8-3 and the Blue Jays 6-11 against the Athletics, Angels and Rangers.

 

14-14 overall.

 

In far larger samples, the Rays and Blue Jays are a combined five games under .500 while the Athletics and Angels are a combined 12 games above .500.

[Kimmi]

This is absolutely correct.

 

My hope is that the As mount a serious charge and make the Ms work for it.

 

Don't look now, but what was once a comfortable 7.5 game lead for the 2nd wildcard slot is now down to 3 games.

 

Also, the Mariners are an astounding 19 games over .500 with a -2 run differential. The Astros should be 22 games up on the Mariners. Instead, they are only up by 5. What's the difference, you ask?

 

The Astros, arguably the best team in baseball, are 14-16 in one run games. The Mariners are 26-12 in one run games. I might also point out that the Astros, arguably the best team in baseball, are 23-4 in blowout games, while the Mariners are 10-13 in those games.

 

Randomness at its finest.

[Spudboy]

Or the Mariners actually suck ass.

[Kimmi]

Or the Mariners actually suck ass.

 

Kind of my point.

[harmony]

Don't look now, but what was once a comfortable 7.5 game lead for the 2nd wildcard slot is now down to 3 games.

 

Also, the Mariners are an astounding 19 games over .500 with a -2 run differential. The Astros should be 22 games up on the Mariners. Instead, they are only up by 5. What's the difference, you ask?

 

The Astros, arguably the best team in baseball, are 14-16 in one run games. The Mariners are 26-12 in one run games. I might also point out that the Astros, arguably the best team in baseball, are 23-4 in blowout games, while the Mariners are 10-13 in those games.

 

Randomness at its finest.

The Seattle tailspin has indeed been remarkable.

 

FiveThirtyEight now gives the Mariners a 52 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and the Athletics a 36 percent chance:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

 

FanGraphs has the Mariners at 64 percent and the Athletics at 30.9 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

The negative run differential has been miraculous.

 

It has been -- and should continue to be -- an interesting season for Mariner fans.

 

Best wishes the remainder of the season.

[mvp 78]

The Mariners are a garbage franchise. Not sure why anyone would be a fan of that team. 2nd rate team fit for a 2nd rate sports town. Would do better if they moved to Vancouver or Portland.

[Kimmi]

The Seattle tailspin has indeed been remarkable.

 

FiveThirtyEight now gives the Mariners a 52 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and the Athletics a 36 percent chance:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

 

FanGraphs has the Mariners at 64 percent and the Athletics at 30.9 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

The negative run differential has been miraculous.

 

It has been -- and should continue to be -- an interesting season for Mariner fans.

 

Best wishes the remainder of the season.

 

Has the tailspin been remarkable, or expected?

 

I am neither pulling for nor against your Mariners. I have no dog in that fight. I am hoping for a good battle between the Ms and the As (who are also playing above their Pythagorean W-L record).

 

Best wishes to you also for the remainder of the season.

[mvp 78]

A's are just a much better team. Their younger guys are far superior to what the M's trot out.

[harmony]

A's are just a much better team. Their younger guys are far superior to what the M's trot out.

FiveThirtyEight currently ranks the Athletics ahead of the Mariners:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

 

Although the FanGraphs rest-of-season projections have the Mariners ahead of the Athletics (and the Red Sox in third place):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

 

I'm enjoying the season regardless.

[harmony]

Has the tailspin been remarkable, or expected?

 

I am neither pulling for nor against your Mariners. I have no dog in that fight. I am hoping for a good battle between the Ms and the As (who are also playing above their Pythagorean W-L record).

 

Best wishes to you also for the remainder of the season.

A little of both.

[sk7326]

Let’s say the Sox and Yanks tie atop the division and need to play a tie breaker before the wild card play in game. The loser would head to the wild card game. The winner would take their #1 or #2 seed in the playoffs.

 

Assuming your players are healthy, do you start your ace vs the Yankees or do you try to win with Porcello and save Sale for an elimination game? For the Yanks, would we save Sevy for the elimination game and start CC or Tanaka?

 

If I managed the Yanks, I’d probably go CC vs the Sox as he has the track record and it saves Sevy for the play in game which is a true elimination game. If I managed the Sox, that’s a tougher question. Sale is the unquestioned ace yet do you want to burn him in what would not be an elimination game? What are the thoughts of the group here?

 

I think you just ride with what you have. You can always take an All-Star Game approach to the playoff game anyway.

[harmony]

The Mariners are a garbage franchise. Not sure why anyone would be a fan of that team. 2nd rate team fit for a 2nd rate sports town. Would do better if they moved to Vancouver or Portland.

Your ignorance of demographics is astounding.

 

And that's coming from a Portland resident.

 

The Mariners are not the club for a fan whose life has a success void yearning to be filled by the on-field success of his or her favorite sports team.

 

I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void. I enjoy pulling for the underdog, a label the Mariners richly deserve after failing to advance to the postseason since 2001.

 

I prefer the underdog to the Seattle Seahawks and the Seattle Sounders, who have reached the pinnacles of their respective sports in the past five years.

 

Enjoy the Red Sox success ... and I'll endure the Mariners success or failure.

[vegasbob]

Back to the tie, if the Yankees lose just one of the 3 game differential in games played, and otherwise the Sox and Yankees have the same record in the short second half up to the 3 games at Fenway concluding the season in September, that series will be irrelevant to the Sox and they can structure the starting rotation for the ALDS to suit themselves.

 

The fact that the Sox starting rotation may be looking like Chris Sale and some corned beef behind him notwithstanding, the situation is currently looking tough with more starters on the DL than available for being on the bump.

[harmony]

Has the tailspin been remarkable, or expected?

 

I am neither pulling for nor against your Mariners. I have no dog in that fight. I am hoping for a good battle between the Ms and the As (who are also playing above their Pythagorean W-L record).

 

Best wishes to you also for the remainder of the season.

I thought you might enjoy the take of FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-as-are-being-led-from-the-back/

[Kimmi]

I thought you might enjoy the take of FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-as-are-being-led-from-the-back/

 

Good read - thanks for posting. I don't watch enough of the As or the Ms, so I appreciate what Sullivan has to say.

 

I happened to watch the end of the game that Sullivan referenced in his opening paragraph. That was another one of those moments that make baseball so great.