Wright gets a start this Tuesday

[mvp 78]

Fine. Ignore catcher ERA and assume catchers don't make pitchers better. Heck, even moonslav doesn't defend that thesis any more.

 

That still leaves you defending a preposterous number--that Swihart, a rookie catcher with 16 passed balls in 2015 was defensively six wins better than the ordinary MLB catcher that year. It also doesn't match the fact that the Sox since 2015 have tried to convert Swihart to be more versatile--an outfielder, even a corner infielder--rather than have him continue to develop as a catcher.

 

They tried to convert him because his bat was so great that they wanted to keep him in the lineup when he wasn't taking a battering behind the plate. They originally saw Vaz as the #1 and Blake as the backup with versatility to play elsewhere. If they were all in on converting him because he was so terrible, why did 93% of his starts at AAA last year feature him at C?

[Maxbialystock]

They tried to convert him because his bat was so great that they wanted to keep him in the lineup when he wasn't taking a battering behind the plate. They originally saw Vaz as the #1 and Blake as the backup with versatility to play elsewhere. If they were all in on converting him because he was so terrible, why did 93% of his starts at AAA last year feature him at C?

 

His bat was never "so great" and you know it. He was a #1 pick in 2011, so they are hoping it might be pretty good, but so far hard evidence is lacking. As for Swihart catching AAA games last year, maybe they were desperate, i don't know. I do know that he hasn't caught a single inning this year--and I think that includes spring training.

 

Do you still believe that Swihart in his rookie year in 2015 when he had 16 passed balls was in fact six wins (+5.9 DWAR) better defensively than the average MLB catcher?

 

I do think the fact that he is catching Wright tonight is suggestive and that I might be right about the Mirabelli comparison. That is, just maybe one way to keep Swihart in Boston is to say he catches Wright and relieves Vazquez and Leon of that burden. I frankly think Vazquez catches Wright better, but I'll bet he wouldn't mind letting Swihart do it. Nasty work, but Wright has shown this year--to my great surprise--he can be effective.

[mvp 78]

2015: 910 OPS from August 15th on

 

Passed balls are just one metric and I'm not sure many other catchers had to primarily deal with a knuckler.

 

I think Swihart could be Jason Kendall 2.0. s***, he has a similar toolkit to Craig Biggio. That guy was ok.

[moonslav59]

Fine. Ignore catcher ERA and assume catchers don't make pitchers better. Heck, even moonslav doesn't defend that thesis any more.

 

 

I don't waive the banner as much, but I still firmly believe that catchers make a huge impact on how well pitchers do over the long term.

[FredLynn]

I am just wondering why the Sox didn't rate him well enough to get these at bats while Hanley was here. Once Hanley was released, they finally see the value in Swihart?

 

There was little room for him anywhere with Ramirez here. I don't think its so much that they "see the value" in him so much as wanting to see what he has...giving him a chance to show management if he is worth keeping. His trade demand probably had something to do with it as well. I have been advocating for him to be given a chance for a long time. If he fails at least we know that he is not worth keeping; if he succeeds then he becomes another cog in the Sox wheel.

[mvp 78]

I don't waive the banner as much, but I still firmly believe that catchers make a huge impact on how well pitchers do over the long term.

 

If you want to try to compare pitchers on the same team over the course of the same season, you could TRY to make an argument. You can't base an argument between two vastly different seasons when the rosters turned over though.

[Maxbialystock]

2015: 910 OPS from August 15th on

 

Passed balls are just one metric and I'm not sure many other catchers had to primarily deal with a knuckler.

 

I think Swihart could be Jason Kendall 2.0. s***, he has a similar toolkit to Craig Biggio. That guy was ok.

 

Agree passed balls are just one metric and one that can be discounted when catching a knuckleballer. But you continue to deflect the central question: do you seriously believe that a rookie catcher playing in just 83 games can legitimately earn a DWAR of +5.9? Surely you can see the absurdity of that.

[mvp 78]

Agree passed balls are just one metric and one that can be discounted when catching a knuckleballer. But you continue to deflect the central question: do you seriously believe that a rookie catcher playing in just 83 games can legitimately earn a DWAR of +5.9? Surely you can see the absurdity of that.

 

Nah, he was good. You're just misremembering and are a tool of the evil Baseball Reference empire.

[illinoisredsox]

Agree passed balls are just one metric and one that can be discounted when catching a knuckleballer. But you continue to deflect the central question: do you seriously believe that a rookie catcher playing in just 83 games can legitimately earn a DWAR of +5.9? Surely you can see the absurdity of that.

 

It is absurd. Just for giggles, I looked up the stat for Johnny Bench’s rookie year in 1968: he’s listed as having a dWAR or 9.9 in 154 games.

 

To borrow from Lloyd Bentsen, I saw Bench play. Swihart is no Johnny Bench on either side of the ball.

[Maxbialystock]

Nah, he was good. You're just misremembering and are a tool of the evil Baseball Reference empire.

 

I'm not the only one misremembering. Two managers, two coaching staffs, and the entire FO have also forgotten what a sterling catcher Swihart is. He has now been in the Sox system for almost 7 years, and they can't see what a gem he is--a sure .900 OPS hitter and one of the best defensive catchers the Sox have ever had if not the best. I mean that 5.9 DWAR says it all. None so blind as those who refuse to see.

[notin]

2015: 910 OPS from August 15th on

 

Passed balls are just one metric and I'm not sure many other catchers had to primarily deal with a knuckler.

 

I think Swihart could be Jason Kendall 2.0. s***, he has a similar toolkit to Craig Biggio. That guy was ok.

 

Those are some pretty lofty expectations. I'd be more than happy if he was the next Terry Steinbach or Mickey Tettleton....

[TylerD]

Pom's getting one more chance to pitch like garbage. Hopefully just one.

 

Not even sure he should get that but regardless good for Wright! Let’s hope he brings his A game

[moonslav59]

Did you know that the pitching staff in 2015 wasn't the same as the pitching staff in 2016?

 

Miley/Porcello/Clay/Kelly/ERod

 

Price/Porcello/Wright/ERod/Clay-Pom

 

If only Swihart could've caught Price and Wright in 2016! ERod's numbers were actually better in 2015 too!

 

The best and only way to use CERA effectively is to compare catchers on the same team, during the same season- pitcher by pitcher.

 

Since the sample sizes are usually unbalanced starter by starter, it's hard to make any claim based on that data alone. Even if you look at OPS against pitcher by pitcher, there are usually only a few pitchers who were caught by two different catchers for over 25 IP. (25 IP is still too small to definitively judge anyone, but if just about every pitcher does better with one guy over another, I think you can make some suppositions.

 

That being said, here are the 2015 numbers by catcher:

By OPS against (notice the wide disparity of PAs against between individual pitchers)

PA Pitcher OPS against

Swihart

448 Porcello .766

356 Miley .756

301 ERod .662

274 Wright .719

272 Owens. 726

268 Kelly .768

143 Ogando .795

123 Barnes .827

114 Breslow 1.000

109 Taz .665

109 Layne .720

101 R Ross .778

93 Masterson 1.076

 

Leon

377 Buchholz .627

182 Miley .738

120 Porcello .934

106 R Hill .410

74 Breslow.550

 

Hannigan

300 Kelly .732

293 Miley .722

196 ERod .803

177 Masterson .779

169 Porcello .736

104 Tazawa .876

92 Buch .817

92 Breslow .850

 

Nothing here jumps out to say Swihart was much worse than Leon or Hanigan. The 2015 to 2016 numbers don't make Swihart look too bad either, if you look at only the pitchers he caught a lot of in 2015 that were here in 2016 with other catchers.

 

2015 OPS Against with Swihart vs 2016 OPS against

 

2015 w/Swi Pitcher 2016 OPS against overall

.766 Porcello .635

.756 Miley to SEA

.662 ERod .728

.719 Wright 653

.726 Owens 1.007

.768 Kelly .828

.795 Ogando n/a

.827 Barnes .709

1.00 Breslow n/a

.665 Tazawa .730

.720 Layne .699

.778 Ross .624

1.08 Masterson n/a

 

Porcello, Wright, ERod, Kelly and Barnes were the 5 pitchers Swihart caught the most in 2015 AND were also on the 2016 team.

 

Here are their ERAs and CERAs in each season:

 

Porcello

2015: 4.92 (4.47 with Swihart, 4.15 with Hanigan, 7.86 with Leon)

2016: 3.15 (6.00 Swihart, 2.52, Leon, 3.45 Hanigan, 3.64 Vaz)

 

Wright

2015: 4.09 (4.24 Swihart, 2.25 Leon, 3.60 Hanigan)

2016: 3.33 (1.35 Swihart in 6.2 Innings, 2.72 Vaz, 2.90 Hanigan, 6.46 Leon)

 

ERod

2015: 3.85 (4.08 Swihart, 1.29 Leon in 7 Innings, 3.89 Hanigan)

2016: 4.71 (3.00 Hanigan, 4.50 Vaz, 4.90 Leon)

 

Kelly

2015: 4.85 (5.10 Swihart, 4.20 Hanigan)

2016: 4.18 (1.35 Leon in 7 IP, 4.50 Vaz, 6.97 Hanigan)

 

Barnes

2015: 5.44 (4.61 Swihart, 6.94 Hanigan in 12 I

2016: 4.05 (0.00 Holiday in 3 IP, 1.37 Vaz in 20 IP, 3.38 Swihart in 3 IP, 6.04

 

These numbers show Swihart in a more unfavorable light.

 

We also have to remember that Swihart was pressed into action quickly and had very little time with the pitchers he caught before catching them in live games.

 

Still, I trust management's judgements on these things, and if they feel like he should not catch much, I trust they have good reasons to think so.

[Spudboy]

To your point Spud, Blake was a 5.9 dWAR player in 2015 even with all of his passed balls.

 

910 OPS after August 15th.

 

He's being given a shot now so let's see what he can do with it.

 

I'm down with this.

 

I don't understand the skepticism. I think he needs ample playing time to get his batting in order.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Spudboy

[moonslav59]

If you want to try to compare pitchers on the same team over the course of the same season, you could TRY to make an argument. You can't base an argument between two vastly different seasons when the rosters turned over though.

 

No, and that is one reason why CERA gets a bad name. People use the numbers to compare catchers on different teams, with different staffs, different ball parks and different opponents.

 

That being said, it does not mean the theory behind the stat and other stats like OPS against by catcher are useless.

 

I firmly believe most pitchers do much better with one catcher vs the another, and it's not just about calling pitches, blocking wild pitches or framing pitches. There's a huge human element that cannot be quantified. Maybe CERA and OPS against capture some of the intangibles, if the sample sizes are large enough and even enough between two or three catchers, but I get the strong feeling Sox management believes it's a real aspect of judging catcher value.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not the only one misremembering. Two managers, two coaching staffs, and the entire FO have also forgotten what a sterling catcher Swihart is. He has now been in the Sox system for almost 7 years, and they can't see what a gem he is--a sure .900 OPS hitter and one of the best defensive catchers the Sox have ever had if not the best. I mean that 5.9 DWAR says it all. None so blind as those who refuse to see.

 

Because we all know that WAR is the be-all end-all of statistics.

[Spudboy]

Did you know that the 2015 team ERA for the Sox was 4.31, ranked 25th in MLB with Swihart as the primary catcher and that the team ERA improved in 2016 and again in 2017 when he wasn't catching at all?

 

lol

 

Do you remember the 5 Aces being so dominant in 2015?

 

I certainly don't.

[Spudboy]

Did you know that the pitching staff in 2015 wasn't the same as the pitching staff in 2016?

 

Miley/Porcello/Clay/Kelly/ERod

 

Price/Porcello/Wright/ERod/Clay-Pom

 

If only Swihart could've caught Price and Wright in 2016! ERod's numbers were actually better in 2015 too!

 

Yes. Context sure can help.

[Spudboy]

Swihart had 16 PBs in 2015; 10 of them were with Wright on the mound. 4 of those were in 1 game and there were 2 one other time.

 

With a knuckleball you have to assume there’s going to be at least one a game no matter who is behind the plate. If it’s dancing late the way it’s supposed to, nothing you can do about it.

 

More context.

[S5Dewey]

I' down with this.

 

I don't understand the skepticism. I think he needs ample playing time to get his batting in order.

 

I was always a Vazquez fan boy, probably because I like the defensive side of the game better than the offensive side and Vaz was clearly better than Swihart defensively. However, I also had to recognize that Swihart was better offensively than Vaz. That's an admittedly low bar at the moment but at that time Vaz was hitting ~.227/.585 while Swi was at .258/.720 (2016 stats).

 

My fear was that the FO would install Swi as the starting catcher based on his offense but then Swi got hurt and lost most of a season opening the door for Vazquez & Sandy Leon.

 

IMO the thing that's important in this conversation is that Swi has historically had an OPS >.700 when he was healthy in 2015 & 2016 so there's no reason to think he can't equal that in 2018 if he got the playing time. Given Swi's defensive skills .700 isn't good enough to start at any position other than catcher but it's good enough to be a utility player - or even one of the two starting catchers IF he can improve his catching skills. (And I know that those years are SS's but they're the only sample size we've got).

 

I think they guy deserves a chance to prove what he can do with the bat. I also think he has a future in professional baseball, just maybe not with the Sox. The problem of course is where he can get those AB's.

[Spudboy]

His bat was never "so great" and you know it. He was a #1 pick in 2011, so they are hoping it might be pretty good, but so far hard evidence is lacking. As for Swihart catching AAA games last year, maybe they were desperate, i don't know. I do know that he hasn't caught a single inning this year--and I think that includes spring training.

 

Do you still believe that Swihart in his rookie year in 2015 when he had 16 passed balls was in fact six wins (+5.9 DWAR) better defensively than the average MLB catcher?

 

I do think the fact that he is catching Wright tonight is suggestive and that I might be right about the Mirabelli comparison. That is, just maybe one way to keep Swihart in Boston is to say he catches Wright and relieves Vazquez and Leon of that burden. I frankly think Vazquez catches Wright better, but I'll bet he wouldn't mind letting Swihart do it. Nasty work, but Wright has shown this year--to my great surprise--he can be effective.

 

Have you even looked at his batting numbers A+ up until he was injured in 2016? They look okay to me with the usual warts of a young player like a bunch of Ks.

 

As for the 5.9 dWAR, that does seem off but I am no expert on how WAR is calculated. Maybe someone along the way made a mistake in entering numbers in a spreadsheet?

 

You are fishing to condemn a young player with notable athletic skills. He has not had a chance to play regularly since his injury. Up until winter ball this past off-season he could not squat or run without significant pain and impairment. These are facts.

 

As for moving him to catcher from SS when he was drafted maybe the Sox saw that they had no young catchers in the system that projected to hit well and decided to change that. I saw a young player whose athletic ability shouted "move me to another position where I can shine offensively". But that's me.

[Spudboy]

I don't waive the banner as much, but I still firmly believe that catchers make a huge impact on how well pitchers do over the long term.

 

I agree.

 

I also think that Blake has not had ample time behind the plate in MLB to be able to asses his ability to impact a pitcher's performance.

[notin]

Have you even looked at his batting numbers A+ up until he was injured in 2016? They look okay to me with the usual warts of a young player like a bunch of Ks.

 

As for the 5.9 dWAR, that does seem off but I am no expert on how WAR is calculated. Maybe someone along the way made a mistake in entering numbers in a spreadsheet?

 

 

Where is the dWAR coming from?

 

I don't think the Defensive component on Fangraphs is straight dWAR. Swihart did have a defensive rating (or whatever) of 5.9 that year, but I thik it needs some context. His 5.9 ranked 18th out of 28 catchers with 300 plate appearances, all of whom had positive numbers.

 

Swihart did rank dead last on Fangraphs in Defensive Runs Saved for all catchers who caught 500 IP or more that season with -16.

 

B-R-com gave him -0.4 dWAR in 2015.

 

Nothing in the metrics tells you he was a good defensive catcher that season...

[Maxbialystock]

I agree.

 

I also think that Blake has not had ample time behind the plate in MLB to be able to asses his ability to impact a pitcher's performance.

 

Here's what you either don't understand or refuse to acknowledge. The judgment about catching skills is being made and has been made by the Sox. I am no expert. I did see him struggle with the knucklers in 2015 and appreciated that he did it. What you and MVP78 and other seem to be ignoring is that the front office and the coaching staffs in Boston and at Pawtucket apparently agree he is not a great fit for catcher.

 

At the same time they recognize, as do we, that he is a good athlete and probably a good hitter although that is not a sure thing. Thus he is on the big club and has been the whole season. At the same time, however, he hasn't caught a single game, nor did he in spring training. So why are you mad at me for saying just maybe he ain't that good behind the plate?

 

Thus the cleverness of letting him catch Wright tonight for as long as Wright lasts. he's caught him before. Cora is reluctant to let him catch any of the other starters. He could certainly use the at bats and he just might get a hit or two. And Leon and Vazquez are both probably happy they don't have to catch Wright--the same way Varitek didn't like catching Wakefield. Oh, and Cora gets to see Swihart work behind the plate.

 

At the same time, however, it is hard for any objective observer to say the Sox are grooming Swihart to become a regular catcher. If tonight goes well, I see Swihart catching Wright regularly but otherwise filling in in the outfield or as DH. He also hasn't started at a corner infielder slot.

[moonslav59]

My fear was that the FO would install Swi as the starting catcher based on his offense but then Swi got hurt and lost most of a season opening the door for Vazquez & Sandy Leon.

 

Fear not, S5, if Sox management didn't give Swihart a chance when the team catching OPS was below .475, they must value defense enormously.

 

To me, the only way Swihart wins significant time behind the plate, is if he shows he has grown defensively since 2015. That is not easy to do or prove, since he has been hurt and playing other positions much of that time,

 

Of course, if he starts hitting .800, then a choice may be made that neither of us like.

 

[notin]

Because we all know that WAR is the be-all end-all of statistics.

 

mvp was being sarcastic...

[Spudboy]

Where is the dWAR coming from?

 

I don't think the Defensive component on Fangraphs is straight dWAR. Swihart did have a defensive rating (or whatever) of 5.9 that year, but I thik it needs some context. His 5.9 ranked 18th out of 28 catchers with 300 plate appearances, all of whom had positive numbers.

 

Swihart did rank dead last on Fangraphs in Defensive Runs Saved for all catchers who caught 500 IP or more that season with -16.

 

B-R-com gave him -0.4 dWAR in 2015.

 

Nothing in the metrics tells you he was a good defensive catcher that season...

 

Who is calling Swi a good defensive catcher?

 

I am just saying that he is not as terrible as many make him out to be and that he needs a chance to play and to refine his skills.

[Maxbialystock]

Who is calling Swi a good defensive catcher?

 

I am just saying that he is not as terrible as many make him out to be and that he needs a chance to play and to refine his skills.

 

That's no good. Nothing left to argue about. Go back to saying he's a great defensive catcher. He caught over 80 games in 2015 and I didn't think he was that bad, especially not for a rookie. But I don't know what the pitchers or the manager thought.

 

One thing is sure right now. With Hanley gone, Swihart is getting a lot more at bats. With Mookie out, he's playing RF too. With Wright pitching, Cora's even letting him catch. I don't know about refining his catching skills, but do know his hitting is very much on display.

[Dojji]

Those are some pretty lofty expectations. I'd be more than happy if he was the next Terry Steinbach or Mickey Tettleton....

 

Doubt Swihart ever reaches the level of defensive consistency of either of those two gentlmen -- but I certainly wouldn't turn up my nose at a Scott Hatteberg, if I thought we had one.

[Dojji]

Here's what you either don't understand or refuse to acknowledge. The judgment about catching skills is being made and has been made by the Sox. I am no expert. I did see him struggle with the knucklers in 2015 and appreciated that he did it. What you and MVP78 and other seem to be ignoring is that the front office and the coaching staffs in Boston and at Pawtucket apparently agree he is not a great fit for catcher.

 

At the same time they recognize, as do we, that he is a good athlete and probably a good hitter although that is not a sure thing. Thus he is on the big club and has been the whole season. At the same time, however, he hasn't caught a single game, nor did he in spring training. So why are you mad at me for saying just maybe he ain't that good behind the plate?

 

Thus the cleverness of letting him catch Wright tonight for as long as Wright lasts. he's caught him before. Cora is reluctant to let him catch any of the other starters. He could certainly use the at bats and he just might get a hit or two. And Leon and Vazquez are both probably happy they don't have to catch Wright--the same way Varitek didn't like catching Wakefield. Oh, and Cora gets to see Swihart work behind the plate.

 

At the same time, however, it is hard for any objective observer to say the Sox are grooming Swihart to become a regular catcher. If tonight goes well, I see Swihart catching Wright regularly but otherwise filling in in the outfield or as DH. He also hasn't started at a corner infielder slot.

 

In other words, you see him becoming Matt LeCroy. Bench guy with a bit of stick to him who can play catcher but probably shouldn't.

 

There's worse ways to go. LeCroy made a decent career for himself as a roleplayer.

 

If Swihart finishes up somewhere between Hatteberg and LeCroy, I'd call that successful.