David Price velocity thread

[jacksonianmarch]

David Price hasn't been the same pitcher since he signed in Boston. Any baseball fan will agree with that. But there is definitely a concerning trend noted since he signed and that is the drop in his velocity. When Price was at his best, he was 93.5 to 95.5 in terms of average velocity of his fastball. His first year in Boston, he was 92.9. Last season, he was injured and saw some time in the pen. He was effective in his shortened time on the big league roster and that was probably due to a boost in his average velo back above 94mph. This year, he is down to 92.5. He doesn't have the power to live high in the zone anymore. He doesn't have the command to live on the corners. He hasn't perfected his ability to pitch as of yet. Price needs to learn from a certain Yankee lefty who has rediscovered himself after being a long term power pitcher. Sabathia used to blow people away. But once his velocity waned, he struggled with homers and was effectively useless until he learned to locate and change speeds much better. Right now, Price is in the throes of diminished stuff and he needs to learn from many pitchers before him lest he ends up being beaten to a pulp

[SoxHop]

David Price hasn't been the same pitcher since he signed in Boston. Any baseball fan will agree with that. But there is definitely a concerning trend noted since he signed and that is the drop in his velocity. When Price was at his best, he was 93.5 to 95.5 in terms of average velocity of his fastball. His first year in Boston, he was 92.9. Last season, he was injured and saw some time in the pen. He was effective in his shortened time on the big league roster and that was probably due to a boost in his average velo back above 94mph. This year, he is down to 92.5. He doesn't have the power to live high in the zone anymore. He doesn't have the command to live on the corners. He hasn't perfected his ability to pitch as of yet. Price needs to learn from a certain Yankee lefty who has rediscovered himself after being a long term power pitcher. Sabathia used to blow people away. But once his velocity waned, he struggled with homers and was effectively useless until he learned to locate and change speeds much better. Right now, Price is in the throes of diminished stuff and he needs to learn from many pitchers before him lest he ends up being beaten to a pulp

 

The velocity thing might be due to injury and return a bit. But otherwise........ yea

[Larry Cook]

Watching price get beat like a dog these past couple of times out, makes me think something is not right with his arm.

[Bellhorn04]

They invested $217 million in the guy, and this is his third season with the team...you'd think they would be capable of determining once and for all if his arm is structurally sound or not. But doubt lingers.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s beyond that now. The only season with a normal velocity for him in the past three was an injury plagued year where he saw pen time. I don’t think he can run it in there like he used to. He needs to adjust to his diminished stuff. It takes time, but it can be done. He’s got nearly 1800 MLB innings in that arm. Some wear at this point is expected

[SoxnCycles]

Great!

He gets to tinker with a new style of pitching, to the tune of 10 mil per game.

This should be fun.

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s got to change something or he will be doomed to continue his middling performances

[Bellhorn04]

He pitched great his first 2 games. Then he got the tingles.

[OH FOY]

The smallest window for continued Greatness at any Position in Baseball is Pitcher. Very Rare you get 10 years of continued dominance at this Position, nowadays. Cut their innings, cut down number of Pitches, to try to save their arms. And its still a very small window.

FA is a gamble at this position.

Edited May 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Price is definitely not throwing as hard as he did in 2015, but right now he is consistent with how he has thrown since coming to Boston. He does have a tendency to throw harder as the season progresses..

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2015&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

[jacksonianmarch]

When his velo is under 93, he is a #3. When his velo stays above that mark, he can be an ace.

[OH FOY]

Velocity doesn't make you an Ace in the "Art of Pitching" It helps, but command, and Brains helps more.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is true, but as a pitcher, you get used to your stuff being at a certain level. When that level drops, your effectiveness will drop as well unless you adjust. Price could get away with being up in the zone when he was 95, not so much now at 92. He is going to have to adjust to his stuff or he will become a major liability.

[jacksonianmarch]

I want you to look at CC for instance. When he was an ace, CC didn't have to locate to a dime. He had good enough command of 3 plus plus pitches, but he got by with a 95+ mph fastball up and 88mph sliders down. Once the FB velo dropped, he was giving up bombs on the fastball up and the velo difference between his offspeed stuff and his fastball wasn't big enough to throw off hitters, so they were able to connect with the breaking stuff. It took CC years to remaster himself. Now, he owns the down and away part of the plate with all his pitches. If he comes up in the zone it is either too high to make contact or too far in or out to drive. Instead of 3 plus plus pitches, he now has 5 pitches that are all very good in terms of movement. He has successfully reinvented himself from dominating power arm to crafty lefty who allows the lowest exit velo in baseball. This is what Price will need to do (all pitchers actually). But Price is too stubborn for now to admit that father time is stealing his fastball. It took a few years of CC sucking hard to realize he needed to do something. Price needs to adjust soon or be a poor mans back end starter

[OH FOY]

He relied on his Fastball to get hitters out when he was younger, it helped all his other pitches, didn't need to throw strikes. Now Velocity is down as I expect, as you get Older.

He now needs to command secondary Pitches for Strikes. Batters will wait for a hitters count on his Fastball. Todays hitters have been seeing 95+ mph fastballs since Single A. Fastball hard pitch to get by todays hitters nowadays.

In College he was hitting 98-99. 5-6 MPH less off his fastball, makes him hittable. Now he must make adjustments, and stop thinking same kid as in College.

[jacksonianmarch]

He relied on his Fastball to get hitters out when he was younger, it helped all his other pitches, didn't need to throw strikes. Now Velocity is down as I expect, as you get Older.

He now needs to command secondary Pitches for Strikes. Batters will wait for a hitters count on his Fastball. Todays hitters have been seeing 95+ mph fastballs since Single A. Fastball hard pitch to get by todays hitters nowadays.

In College he was hitting 98-99. 5-6 MPH less off his fastball, makes him hittable. Now he must make adjustments, and stop thinking same kid as in College.

 

Exactly. A professional athlete needs to know their body almost like a violinist knows his instrument or a driver knows his car. Price dominated with a big fastball coming off a big frame. His 97 looked like 100 since he was throwing it closer to the plate than most at his incredible height. He needs to adjust. He likes to go up to get strikes, either foul balls or swinging. He needs to stop doing that in the zone. He likes to drop a cutter down in the zone to try and get ground balls. Well, without the same velocity, those balls are being hit harder and not necessarily on the ground. He needs to bring those balls down further in the zone to get more of the same effect. As your velocity wanes, your effective strike zone shrinks incredibly. He needs to chop a few mph off his breaking stuff. His cutter is only 4mph off from his fastball now. In his hay day, it was 6 or 7mph. His changeup differential used to be 9-11mph difference, now it is 7mph difference. He needs to slow down his change and his cutter to maximize his deception. A hitter only needs to adjust location and not timing with a 4mph difference on cut vs 4 seamer. If it is 6 or 7mph, he will be early and will have to adjust location as it moves.

[mvp 78]

If only Price's magical elbow translated to results on the field!

[OH FOY]

To me any Pitcher that is getting 20+ million a year, is like going to High Roller Slots at the Casino.

I also think long term you'll get more value at 30+ Million a year with a kid like Machado, then any Pitcher.

Machado should give you 5-6 years of good productivity consistently, in long term, play every day,win you more games. Less of a gamble.

3-4 years of Dominance by a Pitcher, who Pitches every 5th day, more of a gamble, and less wins long term.

[notin]

To me any Pitcher that is getting 20+ million a year, is like going to High Roller Slots at the Casino.

I also think long term you'll get more value at 30+ Million a year with a kid like Machado, then any Pitcher.

Machado should give you 5-6 years of good productivity consistently, in long term, play every day,win you more games. Less of a gamble.

3-4 years of Dominance by a Pitcher, who Pitches every 5th day, more of a gamble, and less wins long term.

 

The only reason I liked the Price contract at all was because of the opt out clause, which, when you look at what Grienke got at his age, looked like a distinct possibility to be exercised.

 

But given how Price has pitched since coming to Boston, both in terms of quality and frequency, and coupled with last year's free agent salaries, it looks all but assured Price will be in Boston for the full contract. Maybe at some point Price gets traded, but even then a huge chunk of that contract is still staying in Boston. Or an equally ugly one coming back in return.

 

Or both...

[SoxnCycles]

The only reason I liked the Price contract at all was because of the opt out clause, which, when you look at what Grienke got at his age, looked like a distinct possibility to be exercised.

 

But given how Price has pitched since coming to Boston, both in terms of quality and frequency, and coupled with last year's free agent salaries, it looks all but assured Price will be in Boston for the full contract. Maybe at some point Price gets traded, but even then a huge chunk of that contract is still staying in Boston. Or an equally ugly one coming back in return.

 

Or both...

 

Good thing it's Friday, or I'd be really depressed right now...

[jacksonianmarch]

You roll the dice paying big bucks to power pitchers after they are 30. The crafty pitchers early in their careers typically age well. Once the power goes away, the player becomes replacement level real fast

[Spudboy]

It is what it is.

[Bellhorn04]

it is what it is.

 

lol

[Kimmi]

To me any Pitcher that is getting 20+ million a year, is like going to High Roller Slots at the Casino.

I also think long term you'll get more value at 30+ Million a year with a kid like Machado, then any Pitcher.

Machado should give you 5-6 years of good productivity consistently, in long term, play every day,win you more games. Less of a gamble.

3-4 years of Dominance by a Pitcher, who Pitches every 5th day, more of a gamble, and less wins long term.

 

Exactly why we should not sign Kimbrel to a big deal.

 

Price was as about a sure bet as you could get for a pitcher in his 30s.

[fxkatt]

Price should have a conversation with the guy the Sox face tonight--Bartolo Colon. And then when we pull into NYC, he should speak with CC Sabathia. Price is a brainy guy, so he should be able to better than match these two. He's younger, much more athletic, and more imposing. So, why not outmatch them in the coming years.

[OH FOY]

It is what it is, is something you cant control. In this case you can.

Belichick uses this all the time, as far as Ref's making a bad call, or rules that are changed. But as far as Contracts, and signings, he'll never use this phrase. He controls it.

[Kimmi]

I am wondering how much the tingling sensation in his fingers during the Yankees game is messing with his head. Price has been two very different pitchers before that happened, dating back to the end of last season, and since that happened.

 

If there's not anything physically wrong with him, maybe the tingling scared him enough that he's holding back or altering his approach, either consciously or subconsciously.

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s certainly a possibility. Is there a velo difference from before and after that start?

[OH FOY]

The Arbitration Process, has made signing a Pitcher as a Free Agent, a real gamble. Owners and GM's I think are starting to see this.

Take Noah Syndergaard. Made his debut at 22, by the time he gets to FA, he'll be 29, you want to sign him say at 25+ million, at that age? He'll be 30 the year he signs and Pitches. Me, no. His better days are behind him. He'll start trending more down then up. Might get 2 or even 3 good years from him, but age and innings will catch up to you, as a Pitcher.

Why I feel the smallest window for greatness, for any Player in the Majors, is a Pitcher.

That's why I think when you pay 20+ million a year to any Player, I expect very good production.

At 30+ a year, you better give it to me as an Owner.

Edited May 5, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

The Arbitration Process, has made signing a Pitcher as a Free Agent, a real gamble. Owners and GM's I think are starting to see this.

 

What makes you think anything's changed?