The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[mvp 78]

Bye Pomeranz. Bye JBJ. Keep Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

Bye Pomeranz. Bye JBJ. Keep Kimbrel.

 

We'll need 2 Kimbrels, if we let JMart take JBJ's OF slot.

 

Plus, people are all ga-ga over Moreland's bat right now. When he's back to hitting .780, adding his bat over JBJ's is not so enticing.

[moonslav59]

Bye Pomeranz. Bye JBJ. Keep Kimbrel.

 

If we can sign or trade for a great defensive CF'er making peanuts and get something worthwhile for JBJ (decent 3-4 starter), we might have to trade JBJ and let Pom walk just to pay everyone's arb raises.

[mvp 78]

If we can sign or trade for a great defensive CF'er making peanuts and get something worthwhile for JBJ (decent 3-4 starter), we might have to trade JBJ and let Pom walk just to pay everyone's arb raises.

 

Show your math.

[moonslav59]

Show your math.

 

I don't have time now, but I've done it in the past.

 

We have a ton of arb raises and some minor option raises going to Sale and I think someone else.

 

If we trade JBJ for a half JBj salary player or two, we can afford Kimbrel and stay under the $40M over penalty line, but it will be very close. No Pom and No JBJ.

[mvp 78]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/03/10/contract-keeps-rusney-castillo-minor-league-limbo/efIg6waR2S6RsxB4rKF3LK/story.html

 

But trading Castillo would almost certainly require the Red Sox paying off a significant amount of his remaining contract. That money would then count against their luxury tax payroll.

[Kimmi]

If you philosophy is to not employ the best closer you can sign, it's not a philosophy I'd sign up for.

 

The philosophy is to spend the resources strengthening the team in other areas.

 

A very good closer can be found for a much cheaper price.

[jacksonianmarch]

The philosophy is to spend the resources strengthening the team in other areas.

 

A very good closer can be found for a much cheaper price.

 

That may be true, but good closers blow 7 or 8 games a year. Kimbrel only blew 4 last year. Are you willing to lose 3 or 4 more games because of the downgrade?

 

Kimbrel is 66 for 72 in save opportunities since he got to Boston. That is 91.6%. Look at the numbers from so called "good" closers from last year

 

Colome 88%

Osuna 79.5%

Knebel 86.7%

Allen 88%

Herrera 83.8%

 

Say an elite closer saves 90% and a good closer saves 84%. Assuming 50 chances, you are going to blow 3 more games with a "good" closer than you are with an elite one. These are wins that turn into losses or wins later on. Also, a "good" closer on the open market is worth over $10 mil per year. Heck, good middle relief guys are getting $8 mil a year. Kimbrel may end up being 8 or 9 mil more than a good closer per year, but he also comes with 3 more locked down wins. If that worth it?

Edited April 30, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[Bellhorn04]

That may be true, but good closers blow 7 or 8 games a year. Kimbrel only blew 4 last year. Are you willing to lose 3 or 4 more games because of the downgrade?

 

Kimbrel is 66 for 72 in save opportunities since he got to Boston. That is 91.6%. Look at the numbers from so called "good" closers from last year

 

Colome 88%

Osuna 79.5%

Knebel 86.7%

Allen 88%

Herrera 83.8%

 

Say an elite closer saves 90% and a good closer saves 84%. Assuming 50 chances, you are going to blow 3 more games with a "good" closer than you are with an elite one. These are wins that turn into losses or wins later on. Also, a "good" closer on the open market is worth over $10 mil per year. Heck, good middle relief guys are getting $8 mil a year. Kimbrel may end up being 8 or 9 mil more than a good closer per year, but he also comes with 3 more locked down wins. If that worth it?

 

I think there's some merit in this argument.

 

One thing that needs to be noted is that a blown save does not always result in a loss.

[Larry Cook]

Any decent closers we can trade for this July?

 

I think Kimbrel blows town for big money and we need a replacement.

[S5Dewey]

That may be true, but good closers blow 7 or 8 games a year. Kimbrel only blew 4 last year. Are you willing to lose 3 or 4 more games because of the downgrade?

 

Kimbrel is 66 for 72 in save opportunities since he got to Boston. That is 91.6%. Look at the numbers from so called "good" closers from last year

 

Colome 88%

Osuna 79.5%

Knebel 86.7%

Allen 88%

Herrera 83.8%

 

Say an elite closer saves 90% and a good closer saves 84%. Assuming 50 chances, you are going to blow 3 more games with a "good" closer than you are with an elite one. These are wins that turn into losses or wins later on. Also, a "good" closer on the open market is worth over $10 mil per year. Heck, good middle relief guys are getting $8 mil a year. Kimbrel may end up being 8 or 9 mil more than a good closer per year, but he also comes with 3 more locked down wins. If that worth it?

 

This is the entire story with closers. With playoff spots decided by a game or three a few losses that could have been turned into W's with a really good closer (maybe named Kimbrel) is the difference between playing baseball or golf in October.

[moonslav59]

This is the entire story with closers. With playoff spots decided by a game or three a few losses that could have been turned into W's with a really good closer (maybe named Kimbrel) is the difference between playing baseball or golf in October.

 

So, the Astros were playing golf last early October?

[notin]

That may be true, but good closers blow 7 or 8 games a year. Kimbrel only blew 4 last year. Are you willing to lose 3 or 4 more games because of the downgrade?

 

Kimbrel is 66 for 72 in save opportunities since he got to Boston. That is 91.6%. Look at the numbers from so called "good" closers from last year

 

Colome 88%

Osuna 79.5%

Knebel 86.7%

Allen 88%

Herrera 83.8%

☆

Say an elite closer saves 90% and a good closer saves 84%. Assuming 50 chances, you are going to blow 3 more games with a "good" closer than you are with an elite one. These are wins that turn into losses or wins later on. Also, a "good" closer on the open market is worth over $10 mil per year. Heck, good middle relief guys are getting $8 mil a year. Kimbrel may end up being 8 or 9 mil more than a good closer per year, but he also comes with 3 more locked down wins. If that worth it?

 

What is so wrong with "wins later on"? Are they lesser wins?

 

You are correct that not all blown saves are losses. But then you ignore this later and call them "lock down wins". Why do you ignore this suddenly?

[notin]

So, the Astros were playing golf last early October?

 

Well, Springer was driving the ball all over the place...

[S5Dewey]

So, the Astros were playing golf last early October?

 

Small sample size. :-)

 

There's no right way to win the WS or even qualify for the playoffs. If there were everyone would be doing it.

 

However, Kimbrel had 35 saves last year and the Sox finished two games ahead of the Yankees. Obviously there's no way to prove what would have happened had we spent Kimbrel's money elsewhere but what we do know is that had Kimbrel had three fewer saves we wouldn't have won the division. I like that as "knowledge" that he's extremely valuable to the Red Sox and worth re-signing.

[Spudboy]

Small sample size. :-)

 

There's no right way to win the WS or even qualify for the playoffs. If there were everyone would be doing it.

 

However, Kimbrel had 35 saves last year and the Sox finished two games ahead of the Yankees. Obviously there's no way to prove what would have happened had we spent Kimbrel's money elsewhere but what we do know is that had Kimbrel had three fewer saves we wouldn't have won the division. I like that as "knowledge" that he's extremely valuable to the Red Sox and worth re-signing.

 

Signing Kimbrel would not fit the narrative of the Cliff proponents.

 

That should be obvious.

[notin]

This is the entire story with closers. With playoff spots decided by a game or three a few losses that could have been turned into W's with a really good closer (maybe named Kimbrel) is the difference between playing baseball or golf in October.

 

It does make me wonder - if closers are so important and great closers can make a huge difference, why is Mariano Rivera the only member of the 400 save club to win a World Series? These guys clearly played for teams that won a lot of games.

 

(Ok, technically Fernando Rodriguez won a WS in 2002 and was very instrumental in the win. But he was also not the closer. Troy Percival was.)

 

400 save club - the non-Rivera members played 89 seasons. One title. Zero titles as closer.

 

Of course that number does double if we include the next man on the list in Dennis Eckersley and his 390 saves with one title...

[notin]

Signing Kimbrel would not fit the narrative of the Cliff proponents.

 

That should be obvious.

 

Does it fit Dombrowski's narrative? He's the only one who matters..

[cp176]

My thinking is obviously screwed up. We have an elite talent in Kimbrel who does his job as well as anyone in the game and many are concerned that we might lose some of the guys playing for us right now if he is re-signed. I guess I just don't see us having elite talent at too many other positions. I realize that we all have our favorites but really there aren't an abundance of guys that we have that I would worry too much about not being able to replace. Our record looks pretty good and on any given night we have seen 2 if not 3 utility players in our lineup as well as according to most here one of the worst fielding outfielders in the game today. Maybe we don't miss some of these guys all that much. Betts - Kimbrel - Sale - Bogaerts - JD- Porcello ( I guess right now) - Devers - Who else am I leaving out and don't give me how important it is to resign Pomeranz or to keep Rodriguez or even JBJ, Vazquez, Nunez or Leon. They are all good players but they are not indispensable and I think that any one or two and maybe even 3 of them would be easier to replace that someone representing the best in the game . Philisophically, yes I I get it - closers should be easier and more economically feasable to replace than your everyday players but each situation is different. Kimbrel is a special talent and maybe the way Cora is using his lineup shows that we have any number or everyday guys who could be replaced more easily than him.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not really that complicated. Kimbrel is a special talent, but he's also a specialist. He plays about 65 innings a year.

 

Everyone would love to have him back. The question is how much are you willing to pay? Chapman got 5/86, so Kimbrel's agent is probably thinking at least 5/95.

[SoxnCycles]

It's not really that complicated. Kimbrel is a special talent, but he's also a specialist. He plays about 65 innings a year.

 

Everyone would love to have him back. The question is how much are you willing to pay? Chapman got 5/86, so Kimbrel's agent is probably thinking at least 5/95.

 

Good luck getting an answer to that one.

[Bellhorn04]

And I sort of hate to bring this up, but Craig did kind of spit the bit in his most crucial single outing as a Red Sox...

[moonslav59]

I cherry-picked the start time for this comp (2011-2018). Here are the comp numbers of the top 3 closers in MLB during this time:

 

IP Closer WAR (not a good measure for RP'ers)

461 Kimbrel 17.5

460 Jansen 16.3

426 Capman 15.8

 

Other categories

Cat Kim/ Jan/ Chap

xFIP 2.04/ 2.21/ 2.28

ERA- 46 / 60 / 55

WHIP 0.90/0.88/1.00 (Uehara 0.82!)

K/BB 4.6/ 6.2/ 3.7 (Uehara 7.7!)

LOB% 84/ 82/ 81

Saves 297/ 229/ 219

BSvs 29/ 28/ 20

 

[notin]

It's not really that complicated. Kimbrel is a special talent, but he's also a specialist. He plays about 65 innings a year.

 

Everyone would love to have him back. The question is how much are you willing to pay? Chapman got 5/86, so Kimbrel's agent is probably thinking at least 5/95.

 

And who are you willing to let go to bring back Kimbrel?

 

If he wants $19mill, does that mean no more Porcello or Pomeranz? Does it interfere with Sale or Bogaerts or Betts?

[moonslav59]

And who are you willing to let go to bring back Kimbrel?

 

If he wants $19mill, does that mean no more Porcello or Pomeranz? Does it interfere with Sale or Bogaerts or Betts?

 

We'll probably have to lose Pom or Porcello, even if we let Kimbrel walk. It might mean Pom & Porcello or one of them plus Bogey or JBJ.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

It does make me wonder - if closers are so important and great closers can make a huge difference, why is Mariano Rivera the only member of the 400 save club to win a World Series? These guys clearly played for teams that won a lot of games.

 

(Ok, technically Fernando Rodriguez won a WS in 2002 and was very instrumental in the win. But he was also not the closer. Troy Percival was.)

 

400 save club - the non-Rivera members played 89 seasons. One title. Zero titles as closer.

 

Of course that number does double if we include the next man on the list in Dennis Eckersley and his 390 saves with one title...

 

The other side of the argument is how many World Series teams have you seen that did not have an established, top level closer?

[moonslav59]

The other side of the argument is how many World Series teams have you seen that did not have an established' date=' top level closer?[/quote']

 

Last year's Astros had a sucky closer.

 

The 2015 Royals had a closer with a 1.455 WHIP.

 

That's 2 WS winners in the last 3 years.

[moonslav59]

Last year's Astros had a sucky closer.

 

The 2015 Royals had a closer with a 1.455 WHIP.

 

That's 2 WS winners in the last 3 years.

 

2014: SF's Sergio Romo had a nice year, but he was never considered a top 5 closer.

 

KC was in the WS another year without a great closer.

 

In 2013, STL had Mujica as a closer.

 

The 2015 Mets got a great season from Familia, but does anyone think of him as a top closer?

Edited May 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

What KC closer was that bad? I know they had Holland one year, then he got hurt and Davis took over. I think your thinking about their Starters, they didn't have good Starters, but a terrific BP, in 2015, and actually year before too, with Holland and Davis. Edited May 1, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

2014: SF's Sergio Romo had a nice year, but he was never considered a top 5 closer.

 

KC was in the WS another year without a great closer.

 

In 2013, STL had Mujica as a closer.

 

The 2015 Mets got a great season from Familia, but does anyone think of him as a top closer?

 

I think if you look throughout history, or at least over the last several decades, you will find those are the exceptions. Seems to me most teams playing in late October have that shut down guy, they sure look to be valuable.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Yaz Fan Since '67