The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[Dojji]

I don't believe in asking my managers to be Nostradamus.

 

In a situation where our bats are slumping, protecting leads with the closer more aggressively is a useful tactic. It can blow up on us, but it's still a useful tactic that might help us salt away some lower scoring wins while our bats recover their mojo.

 

If i had to guess, that was exactly Cora's thought process -- many of our hitters are struggling today, so secure the lead you know you have now, bag the win that's in hand, and don't worry about the lead you hope to have later.

 

Especially with a deep and high quality bullpen that's probably going to hold that load too anyway.

[Slasher9]

Kelly or Barnes can take a save situation from time to time.

 

true. Kelly was used the past 2 nights but only for 4 pitches / 1 out last night.

barnes threw 1 inning (25 pitches) last night so i guess either would be our closer today?

i would still have preferred johnson or hembree pitch the 9th last night with a 4 run lead and have a fresh craig kimbrel perched in the pen for this afternoons tilt.

[Dojji]

Win in hand is worth 2 in the bush. The Orioles lineup can be pretty dangerous, I don't think we should be underestimating them.

[SoxHop]

Win in hand is worth 2 in the bush. The Orioles lineup can be pretty dangerous, I don't think we should be underestimating them.

 

Or overestimate them. Our bullpen is great, but can't be trusted you say.

[Bellhorn04]

Because we needed a shutdown inning with a 4 run lead?

 

Because Kimbrel is the best reliever in the pen.

 

If it was a 3 run lead would you feel much differently?

[SoxHop]

Because Kimbrel is the best reliever in the pen.

 

If it was a 3 run lead would you feel much differently?

 

Hmmm. So you want to the shutdown of the game, no matter what bullets used.

 

Actually, at 3 runs I start thinking Kimbrell is a possible option. At 2 runs I go to him completely.

 

Back at you, cause I want to know your reasoning. If at 5 runs, do you send him out there?

[Bellhorn04]

Hmmm. So you want to the shutdown of the game, no matter what bullets used.

 

Actually, at 3 runs I start thinking Kimbrell is a possible option. At 2 runs I go to him completely.

 

Back at you, cause I want to know your reasoning. If at 5 runs, do you send him out there?

 

5 runs no.

 

Needless to say there's some gray area here.

 

I tell you what, I'd describe Cora's decision as debatable but defensible. Is that fair?

[SoxHop]

5 runs no.

 

Needless to say there's some gray area here.

 

I tell you what, I'd describe Cora's decision as debatable but defensible. Is that fair?

 

Totally. We are discussing a matter of one run. It's gray, I get that, and not a huge decision. I find the interesting part is that you'd bring in Kimbrell with 4 runs and not 5, and I'd bring him in with 3 and not 4. How's this....... we are both probably wrong.

[Dojji]

Or overestimate them. Our bullpen is great, but can't be trusted you say.

 

You can't have it both ways. You either don't trust the bullpen to hold a lead today without Kimbrel, in which case he should have been in the game to make sure we don't blow the win, or you do trust them to have held the lead without Kimbrel yesterday, in which case this whole argument doesn't even matter because Barnes and Kelly can close out the game today. Pick one.

[SoxHop]

You can't have it both ways. You either don't trust the bullpen to hold a lead today without Kimbrel, in which case he should have been in the game to make sure we don't blow the win, or you do trust them to have held the lead without Kimbrel yesterday, in which case this whole argument doesn't even matter because Barnes and Kelly can close out the game today. Pick one.

 

Huh? I wouldn't have brought him in with a 4 run lead. I'd brought in Haley to close it out.

 

If it was 3 run lead I might, depending on who was up.

 

2 run lead I would for sure.

[SoxHop]

And as I speak the Sox are up 5 to 1. A couple men on. And Kimbrell is starting to warm up......

 

reallly?????

[Kimmi]

June 12th

Bringing Kimbrel into the game with a 4 run lead the night after he threw 30+ pitches is borderline negligent by Rookie Manager Cora. with the 25+ bullets he used up in this non save situation we can now consider him a spectator for tonight's game when we very well could need him to protect a 1 run lead. I believe J Kelly was also used the past 2 nights so not sure who will close tonight? with a 4 run lead against the vaunted orioles lineup...terrible 9th inning decision making by our rookie manager.

 

I wouldn't say it was a terrible decision, but I definitely think it was a questionable call. I was surprised to see Kimbrel come into the game.

[Maxbialystock]

Pardon me, but I find the continued discussion about using Kimbrel last night (when the Sox were up 4) just plain laughable for these reasons:

 

1. We've now seen the follow-on game which the Sox won without Kimbrel, who should now be available.

2. Absolutely no one (except me) blames Kimbrel for what happened last night when he stunk. Nope. The fault was all on the manager for misuing this precious, precious asset who is only to be used for very specific situations--9th inning, save situation, nobody on base, hasn't pitched recently, won't be needed in the next game, etc.

3. Cora is a rookie manager, which means everyone on talksox knows this team, this pitcher, and how the game should be played and especially managed better than poor Alex. If he would just read talksox, he would wise up fast.

4. The results of the actual next game--a 5-1 win and sweep over the Orioles--are irrelevant because results don't matter. What matters is our expert opinion which is better than Cora's.

5. Kimbrel's Salary, $13M, is the 4th highest on the team and greater than the rest of bullpen combined, which is interesting because his WAR is 1.2, and Velazquez's is 1.3, Barnes is 1.1, and Kelly's is 1.0. And all those guys are willing to do windows when asked. Anybody else notice the other night that Kelly was sent out to get one out with the bases loaded? Is there any doubt in your mind that Kimbrel will never, ever be asked to do that?

6. Kimbel is not overworked. Johnson, Velazquez, Barnes, Kelly, and Hembree have all pitched more innings. Kimbrel has pitched in 30 games, Kelly 30, Barnes 29, and Hembree 29.

Edited June 14, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[SoxHop]

Pardon me, but I find the continued discussion about using Kimbrel last night (when the Sox were up 4) just plain laughable for these reasons:

 

1. We've now seen the follow-on game which the Sox won without Kimbrel, who should now be available.

2. Absolutely no one (except me) blames Kimbrel for what happened last night when he stunk. Nope. The fault was all on the manager for misuing this precious, precious asset who is only to be used for very specific situations--9th inning, save situation, nobody on base, hasn't pitched recently, won't be needed in the next game, etc.

3. Cora is a rookie manager, which means everyone on talksox knows this team, this pitcher, and how the game should be played and especially managed better than poor Alex. If he would just read talksox, he would wise up fast.

4. The results of the actual next game--a 5-1 win and sweep over the Orioles--are irrelevant because results don't matter. What matters is our expert opinion which is better than Cora's.

5. Kimbrel's Salary, $13M, is the 4th highest on the team and greater than the rest of bullpen combined, which is interesting because his WAR is 1.2, and Velazquez's is 1.3, Barnes is 1.1, and Kelly's is 1.0. And all those guys are willing to do windows when asked. Anybody else notice the other night that Kelly was sent out to get one out with the bases loaded? Is there any doubt in your mind that Kimbrel will never, ever be asked to do that?

6. Kimbel is not overworked. Johnson, Velazquez, Barnes, Kelly, and Hembree have all pitched more innings.

 

Did you see Cora's buttocks last night in those pants? I think he's really working them out, do you think he's doing squats or knee bends to get the buttock definition?

[Slasher9]

Max - you don’t believe Cora has made any managerial mistakes this season???

You realize that is .... how did you put it? Laughable

[a700hitter]

Max - you don’t believe Cora has made any managerial mistakes this season???

You realize that is .... how did you put it? Laughable

Maybe Max falls into the school of thought that managerial in-game moves don't matter?

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe Max falls into the school of thought that managerial in-game moves don't matter?

 

They matter, but not nearly as much as wins and losses. The Sox have 3 more wins than any other team in MLB. So me, I give this manager the benefit of the doubt on practically any decision he makes. Plus he has more information and more MLB experience than everyone on talksox combined. On pitching moves he can even check with both his pitching coach and his bench coach, both of whom also have more information and experience than any of us.

 

I harbor a special resentment toward Kimbrel because more and more he looks to me like a prima donna. Nobody on base when he goes in. No 2 inning saves. No 4 run leads (and therefore no save). Rested. This would make more sense if the Sox weren't paying him $210K/inning and if Kelly, Velazquez, and Barnes weren't almost as good according to WAR ratings.

[a700hitter]

They matter, but not nearly as much as wins and losses. The Sox have 3 more wins than any other team in MLB. So me, I give this manager the benefit of the doubt on practically any decision he makes. Plus he has more information and more MLB experience than everyone on talksox combined. On pitching moves he can even check with both his pitching coach and his bench coach, both of whom also have more information and experience than any of us.

 

I harbor a special resentment toward Kimbrel because more and more he looks to me like a prima donna. Nobody on base when he goes in. No 2 inning saves. No 4 run leads (and therefore no save). Rested. This would make more sense if the Sox weren't paying him $210K/inning and if Kelly, Velazquez, and Barnes weren't almost as good according to WAR ratings.

And yet with all that information at their disposal, sometimes they can be so obviously wrong.

 

As for resenting Kimbrel, I can't resent a guy who k's 40% of the batters that he faces, but that is just me.

[Maxbialystock]

Max - you don’t believe Cora has made any managerial mistakes this season???

You realize that is .... how did you put it? Laughable

 

You and I simply disagree on what constitutes a mistake. I think almost all in game decisions are judgment calls and a trust his judgment and knowledge and information available more than yours or that of anyone on talksox. When Kelly screwed up in game 1 of the season, I blamed that on Kelly, not Cora. Ditto last night--Kimbrel should have gotten 3 outs on maybe 15 pitches because the Sox are paying him $210K/inning (based on 124 innings and $26M in 2016/17). Plus, of course, we now know for a fact we did not need him today.

Edited June 14, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

And yet with all that information at their disposal, sometimes they can be so obviously wrong.

 

As for resenting Kimbrel, I can't resent a guy who k's 40% of the batters that he faces, but that is just me.

 

Meh. He gets 40% in large part because he only faces those guys once in a game. Oh, and he gets paid $210K/inning to do that. Last year Sale got paid $58K/inning to face hitters multiple times.

 

Kimbrel is a darn good closer and I'm glad we have him. But his WAR ain't that much better than 3 other relievers on the same thing, and it frosts me that there are more and more restrictions on when and how Kimbrel can be used. No 2 inning saves. No one on base when he goes in. Preferably no 4 run leads. In fact, preferably only save opportunities of 1 inning. For $13M/year?

[a700hitter]

You and I simply disagree on what constitutes a mistake. I think almost all in game decisions are judgment calls and a trust his judgment and knowledge and information available more than yours or that of anyone on talksox. When Kelly screwed up in game 1 of the season, I blamed that on Kelly, not Cora. Ditto last night--Kimbrel should have gotten 3 outs on maybe 15 pitches because the Sox are paying him $210K/inning (based on 124 innings and $26M in 2016/17). Plus, of course, we now know for a fact we did not need him today.

First of all, I trust the manager's judgment more than my own for the reasons that you mentioned. That doesn't change the fact that they have the occasional brainfart and it doesn't take an insider with reams of data to spot those mistakes.

 

I didn't argue with you about last night. There hasn't been an issue with Kimbrel getting too much work lately and Cora has no way of knowing if a guy will be sharp when he comes into the game. Also, there was plenty of breathing room for Kimbrel even if he wasn't sharp. The problem with Kelly game was that it was obvious that he was blowing up and there wasn't a comfortable lead. He gets paid to know when the guy doesn't have it. He blew that one -- no ifs, but or whats. Of course Kelly is the performer and gets the stain on his record, but no pitcher walks off the mound when they don't have it unless the manager comes to get him. A managers most crucial in game decision is to know when he needs to make a pitching change.

[a700hitter]

Meh. He gets 40% in large part because he only faces those guys once in a game. Oh, and he gets paid $210K/inning to do that. Last year Sale got paid $58K/inning to face hitters multiple times.

 

Kimbrel is a darn good closer and I'm glad we have him. But his WAR ain't that much better than 3 other relievers on the same thing, and it frosts me that there are more and more restrictions on when and how Kimbrel can be used. No 2 inning saves. No one on base when he goes in. Preferably no 4 run leads. In fact, preferably only save opportunities of 1 inning. For $13M/year?

I don't meh about a guy who is one of the best at what he does and also one of the best of all time. Maybe closers are overvalued in today's game, but that is the fault of the owners. There is a need to have a big hammer in the pen to lock down games, and Kimbrel is one of the best at it.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't meh about a guy who is one of the best at what he does and also one of the best of all time. Maybe closers are overvalued in today's game, but that is the fault of the owners. There is a need to have a big hammer in the pen to lock down games, and Kimbrel is one of the best at it.

 

Yes, he is certainly one of the best. That curve and fastball are lethal weapons and ideal for a closer. And you are also right that Kimbrel’s salary is market value for top closers with tenure.

[Maxbialystock]

First of all, I trust the manager's judgment more than my own for the reasons that you mentioned. That doesn't change the fact that they have the occasional brainfart and it doesn't take an insider with reams of data to spot those mistakes.

 

I didn't argue with you about last night. There hasn't been an issue with Kimbrel getting too much work lately and Cora has no way of knowing if a guy will be sharp when he comes into the game. Also, there was plenty of breathing room for Kimbrel even if he wasn't sharp. The problem with Kelly game was that it was obvious that he was blowing up and there wasn't a comfortable lead. He gets paid to know when the guy doesn't have it. He blew that one -- no ifs, but or whats. Of course Kelly is the performer and gets the stain on his record, but no pitcher walks off the mound when they don't have it unless the manager comes to get him. A managers most crucial in game decision is to know when he needs to make a pitching change.

 

Pax. If you are ok with last night, you can have Kelly/Cora in game 1.

[Bellhorn04]

Max - you don’t believe Cora has made any managerial mistakes this season???

You realize that is .... how did you put it? Laughable

 

No doubt he's made some mistakes. But if he was making a lot of significant mistakes, this thread would be rocking. And it's not.

[Slasher9]

No doubt he's made some mistakes. But if he was making a lot of significant mistakes, this thread would be rocking. And it's not.

 

i agree with you 100%. it seems i am the only one posting the errors as i see them and that has only been..what? maybe 6 or 7 instances that i have pointed out in all the games played so far. and with many of them we still had a positive outcome (W) so it is easy to sweep them under the proverbial rug.

[Bellhorn04]

The way I see it, a lot of times a manager has to make a decision where there are arguments for a move and arguments against a move. Such as using Kimbrel in that second game. I suspect if you ran a poll on that decision here it would come in with about 55% supporting it and 45% opposing it or something like that. It's fun for us to debate these things. But it's the manager who has to make the actual decision and live with the results.

[moonslav59]

The way I see it, a lot of times a manager has to make a decision where there are arguments for a move and arguments against a move. Such as using Kimbrel in that second game. I suspect if you ran a poll on that decision here it would come in with about 55% supporting it and 45% opposing it or something like that. It's fun for us to debate these things. But it's the manager who has to make the actual decision and live with the results.

 

Very well said.

 

I try to avoid criticizing individual in-game decisions made by a manager. Sure, they must make mistakes, but I'm not even sure the ones they make are the ones we notice or call out, or that one's we pretty much all agree were mistakes might not really be ones, but for the hindsight fact that the choice failed.

 

Managers have reasons for doing things that we just don't know about. I'm fine with people debating the choices, but I, personally, prefer to debate managing philosophies in general- like the alternating lefty-righty line-up thing (I'm against it, unless both hitters are equal), where to slot your best batter, how often and when should you rest players, should you ever bench "the hot hand?", and much more.

 

[Dojji]

Max - you don’t believe Cora has made any managerial mistakes this season???

You realize that is .... how did you put it? Laughable

 

Depends on how you're defining a mistake. Sure, Cora has tried tons of things that didn't work perfectly, but if it was the right thing to try at the time, how is that a mistake?

 

Managers stack the odds and roll the dice. If the dice come up against them, but they did everything they needed to to prevent this, hard to call that a mistake. At the very least I can't think of anything Cora's done so far this year that stacked the odds against his team, even if, again, he did try some things that didn't work (which every manager will have a few of those moments in any given year)

[Slasher9]

Managers have reasons for doing things that we just don't know about. I'm fine with people debating the choices, but I, personally, prefer to debate managing philosophies in general- like the alternating lefty-righty line-up thing (I'm against it, unless both hitters are equal), where to slot your best batter, how often and when should you rest players, should you ever bench "the hot hand?", and much more.

 

 

what are your thoughts on batting a sub 300 OBP guy in the leadoff spot?