The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[Maxbialystock]

no, your arguing with me. and I am on record saying over and over JBj should be in the lineup everyday as a .100 hitter because his D is that important to our team. it isn't "20/20" hindsight.

boil it down it is just plain DUMB to weaken 2 defensive positions in a major league baseball game to get Blake Swihart's bat into the lineup.

 

That lineup worked against Manaea--way, way better than a month ago when he threw the no-hitter.

[Bellhorn04]

no, your arguing with me. and I am on record saying over and over JBj should be in the lineup everyday as a .100 hitter because his D is that important to our team. it isn't "20/20" hindsight.

boil it down it is just plain DUMB to weaken 2 defensive positions in a major league baseball game to get Blake Swihart's bat into the lineup.

 

So just leave Swihart to rot on the bench so there's no possibility he can get any better and help us out later on in the season.

 

Doesn't seem like very good managing.

[notin]

Yeah.. and his bdWAR is 0.0, saying that JBJ is an exactly average CF. That should give us some idea of exactly how accurate dWar is. LOL

 

Why? How many of the players ranked ahead of him have you seen do worse over the course of 35 games?

[S5Dewey]

Or, it could be saying that there are an incredibly high amount of excellent defensive CF'ers in MLB today.

 

JBJ could be a great defender but still be 15th best.

 

That's possible. Improbable, but possible.

[notin]

Of course he is, and by a good margin. But the whole idea of WAR is to measure the whole player. That's why I went through that exercise arguing that the average lineup player's bat is five times as important as his glove. By and large Cora has shown a willingness to play JBJ despite the weak hitting, but lately not so much because the bottom third of the lineup is struggling and the Sox aren't winning as much.

 

I missed that argument. Got a link or tell me what thread/page it's on?

 

Because as a blanket statement, I would not agree. But I'm open to proof/theories about it...

[moonslav59]

That's possible. Improbable, but possible.

 

I could see 10th or 12th, but 15th is pushing it.

 

There really are some great D center fielders today.

 

fangraphs has JBJ ranked 14th out of 32 from 2017-2018 in URZ/150:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=600&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

 

I see a lot of good names above him and Pillar and Cain are below him.

Edited May 15, 2018 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

So just leave Swihart to rot on the bench so there's no possibility he can get any better and help us out later on in the season.

 

Doesn't seem like very good managing.

 

barring a surprise....Blake's gone when pedroia comes back. not sure he will be around to help us out later in the season. and why weaken 2 defensive positions to get him in the lineup? they can weaken only 1 (catcher) and actually replace a WORSE bat then JBj's in the lineup......

[S5Dewey]

Why? How many of the players ranked ahead of him have you seen do worse over the course of 35 games?

 

well, you've got me there. I haven't the time to watch 18 games a day to scrutinize CF's. For all I know maybe Bogaerts is in the top 5 SS's in the game, and Nunez is one of the top five at 2B too. I haven't seen them all.

 

What I do know is that I know quality when I see it and my eyes tell me that this year I've seen no more than three CF's whom I'd consider to be better defensively than JBJ. Maybe the NL is a treasure trove of outstanding CF's that I haven't seen.

[notin]

That's possible. Improbable, but possible.

 

WE certainly are seeing a lot of extremely skilled defensive players and athletes in CF in the AL.

 

Buxton, Kiermeier, Hicks, Pillar, Zimmer, Trout and Leonys Martin for starters. I haven't seen Dee Gordon out there yet.

 

And the NL has Cain, Pollock, Inciarte, Hamilton, and Brinson (who Fangraphs loves defensively, but I've never seen play).

 

I named about a dozen extremely talented defensive center fielders, the existence of whom doesn't negate Jackie's ability to play the position.

 

Not sure why it is so improbable...

[S5Dewey]

I could see 10th or 12th, but 15th is pushing it.

 

There really are some great D center fielders today.

 

fangraphs has JBJ ranked 14th out of 32 from 2017-2018 in URZ/150:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=600&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

 

I see a lot of good names above him and Pillar and Cain are below him.

 

I'd have put Pillar above him, but I haven't seen Pillar play 35 games this year so what do I know?

[Slasher9]

That lineup worked against Manaea--way, way better than a month ago when he threw the no-hitter.

 

got it. so you expected manaea to throw another no hitter if JBj was in the lineup instead of Blake Swihart. makes sense. or not.

[notin]

well, you've got me there. I haven't the time to watch 18 games a day to scrutinize CF's. For all I know maybe Bogaerts is in the top 5 SS's in the game, and Nunez is one of the top five at 2B too. I haven't seen them all.

 

What I do know is that I know quality when I see it and my eyes tell me that this year I've seen no more than three CF's whom I'd consider to be better defensively than JBJ. Maybe the NL is a treasure trove of outstanding CF's that I haven't seen.

 

This is exactly the point.

 

You're disregarding an evaluation technique that DOES take into account every one of these players in every game they play, and eschewing it in favor of watching Jackie Bradley play everyday and the others sporadically, and probably mostly on television.

[S5Dewey]

WE certainly are seeing a lot of extremely skilled defensive players and athletes in CF in the AL.

 

Buxton, Kiermeier, Hicks, Pillar, Zimmer, Trout and Leonys Martin for starters. I haven't seen Dee Gordon out there yet.

 

And the NL has Cain, Pollock, Inciarte, Hamilton, and Brinson (who Fangraphs loves defensively, but I've never seen play).

 

I named about a dozen extremely talented defensive center fielders, the existence of whom doesn't negate Jackie's ability to play the position.

 

Not sure why it is so improbable...

 

The fact of the matter is that we're 43 games into the season so any determination of who's better than who this year is nothing more than a SSS.

[S5Dewey]

This is exactly the point.

 

You're disregarding an evaluation technique that DOES take into account every one of these players in every game they play, and eschewing it in favor of watching Jackie Bradley play everyday and the others sporadically, and probably mostly on television.

 

You're completely a stats guy and I'm not. I get it. I've always said that there's room for both.

[notin]

I'd have put Pillar above him, but I haven't seen Pillar play 35 games this year so what do I know?

 

Als bear in kind dWAR and stats like that aren't definitive statements about ability. As a standalone year, they tell you who is having the better season, and players do have good and bad defensive seasons.

 

So while Bradley's dWAR may be closer to the middle of the pack than normal, it doesn't necessarily mean he is average among his peers. Just like Matt Carpenter's batting average this year doesn't mean he is the worst hitter in MLB. (But it does mean Carpenter is having the worst season to date.)

[Bellhorn04]

got it. so you expected manaea to throw another no hitter if JBj was in the lineup instead of Blake Swihart. makes sense. or not.

 

What about the idea that he didn't want JBJ to lose whatever confidence he might have gained with a decent game the day before?

[notin]

You're completely a stats guy and I'm not. I get it. I've always said that there's room for both.

 

Oh I am not completely a stats guy. If I were, I would not have added the addendum about performance within a season.

 

I love Bradley as a CF, and I don't like him less just because Lewis Brinson posts better dWAR numbers.

 

However, when making a statement like "Bradley is the best" or "top 3" or whatever - anything comparative - I don't think watching Bradley and Bradley alone is a good basis for any comparative judgement. My data is far, far too biased in his direction.

 

And for comparisons, using data like dWAR or UZR or whatever stat you like that does look at all players equally is really the best way to go...

[moonslav59]

I'd have put Pillar above him, but I haven't seen Pillar play 35 games this year so what do I know?

 

My numbers provided are for 2017-2018 combined.

 

If we put Pillar and Cain above or equal to JBJ, he's be 16th out of 32:

 

That's the mean, but it doesn't have to indicate he's average.

 

If there were 16 Paul Blairs, would it have made him average?

 

I guess we might be arguing semantics more than baseball.

[Slasher9]

What about the idea that he didn't want JBJ to lose whatever confidence he might have gained with a decent game the day before?

 

that's a fair reason.

[notin]

What about the idea that he didn't want JBJ to lose whatever confidence he might have gained with a decent game the day before?

 

So he decided to preserve his confidence by benching him?

[illinoisredsox]

So he decided to preserve his confidence by benching him?

 

As I posted earlier, career-wise, JBJ is 0-6 with 3 K's against Manaea in 6 PAs.

 

For the season, he's got a .088/.139/.237 slash line against southpaws.

 

So yes, putting him in against a lefty who he's had no success against could work against confidence.

[notin]

As I posted earlier, career-wise, JBJ is 0-6 with 3 K's against Manaea in 6 PAs.

 

For the season, he's got a .088/.139/.237 slash line against southpaws.

 

So yes, putting him in against a lefty who he's had no success against could work against confidence.

 

 

 

That's really all how Jackie feels about it, I guess.

 

He might view it as the manager having confidence in him to overcome his weakness against LHP. Or that he is a positive addition to the lineup regardless of how he hits. That's all pretty dependent on Jackie as a person (and to be fair, Cora knows him and I don't).

 

But I don't think benching him does much for anyone's confidence. But hey, maybe that is the best way to handle Bradley...

[notin]

The fact of the matter is that we're 43 games into the season so any determination of who's better than who this year is nothing more than a SSS.

 

Also true.

 

This applies to most stats, including Bradley's hitting numbers...

[Bellhorn04]

That's really all how Jackie feels about it, I guess.

 

He might view it as the manager having confidence in him to overcome his weakness against LHP. Or that he is a positive addition to the lineup regardless of how he hits. That's all pretty dependent on Jackie as a person (and to be fair, Cora knows him and I don't).

 

But I don't think benching him does much for anyone's confidence. But hey, maybe that is the best way to handle Bradley...

 

The benching started before last night. He sat out 2 games against the Yanks and one against the Jays. He knows what the situation is.

[Bellhorn04]

Also true.

 

This applies to most stats, including Bradley's hitting numbers...

 

Except Bradley's numbers were horrible for the second half of 2017 as well. He's in a very long slump, and we're talking about a guy who has had long slumps before.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ not in the lineup tonight either...

[User Name]

Yeah.. and his bdWAR is 0.0, saying that JBJ is an exactly average CF. That should give us some idea of exactly how accurate dWar is. LOL

 

That's not how WAR works. A 0.0 means replacement level (AAAA fodder) not an average regular. Again, don't quote the stat if you don't have a basic understanding of it. Also, sample sizes and all that jazz.

Edited May 15, 2018 by User Name?

[illinoisredsox]

Except Bradley's numbers were horrible for the second half of 2017 as well. He's in a very long slump, and we're talking about a guy who has had long slumps before.

 

Since the All-Star break last July, he's hitting .193/.272/.287/.559. 9 doubles, a triple, 7 homers and struck out 100 times in 97 games. Some of that OBP is because he's been HBP 11 times.

[S5Dewey]

That's not how WAR works. A 0.0 means replacement level (AAAA fodder) not an average regular. Again, don't quote the stat if you don't have a basic understanding of it. Also, sample sizes and all that jazz.

 

Yep. You're right. Which makes that 0.0 even more ridiculous.

[User Name]

Yep. You're right. Which makes that 0.0 even more ridiculous.

 

Not at all, because A) dWAR, like its parent, is a cumulative stat, so sample size, and What if there are underlying issues with JBJ (injury? his offensive woes messing with his head?) that we can't see?

 

The point is, you're the other half of the WAR annoyance chart: It's not gospel, so it shouldn't be the main factor in the MVP discussion, but it's not so flawed as to be ridiculed by someone who doesn't understand the basics of what any of its components measure and how. Just stop.